Market Analysis with Don Roose

Yeager: The Grain Belt harvest hits full-stride while positions firm ahead of next week’s government reports and corn export sales set a record. 

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract lost three cents and the December corn contract fell by 2 cents. 

The lack of export demand kept a lid on the soy complex.

The November soybean contract sold off 12 cents, while December meal declined $9.40 per ton. December cotton was even. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class Three milk futures shed 28 cents. The livestock market was mixed. December cattle cut $1.43. November feeders put on $3.55 and the December lean hog contract improved by $3.42. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was up 60 ticks. 

November crude oil found $3.03 per barrel. 

COMEX gold added $93.90 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was higher by more than 12 points to settle at 561 - 05.

Joining us now - regular market analyst Don Roose. 

Don Roose: Glad to be back, Paul.

Yeager: Don, this wheat market was this was price action more attributable to support to corn or this Russia Ukraine story that kind of keeps hanging around.

Roose: Well, you know, the wheat market again you know, did have a key reversal again on Tuesday. That's often a sign of a major low or major intermediate low. It hasn't stuck, but it has given us support, you know, down around 507. We can't get over 550. But I think the bottom line is, you know, we bounced a little bit when the Russia Ukraine rhetoric on the war popped up again. You know, remember we shot up big when Russia invaded Ukraine. So I think a little bit of war premium in. But I think the wheat actually drugged the corn market down. But Russia continues to sell wheat aggressively for money for the war. The new crop is bigger. Australia's crop is coming at us. Argentina's crop is coming at us all bigger. So I think we're looking to North America to see if we have the weather problem in the spring.

Yeager: So everything you just said, Don, sounds a lot more fundamental than technical, but you started with a technical story. Technically, this. Are you hearing people are selling at this point because of what technically is happening? Because what you just said fundamentally would scare me.

Roose: Yeah. Fundamentally it's negative. But I think you reach a level where you have fair market value. And I think that's what the wheat market is. Well, it can't really go down a lot. Hasn't really for a few months. But when you rally, the end users aren't spooked. Get up there. But the funds are short. About 90,000 wheat. And so I think that's a little bit scary if they ever come out of those shorts. But they need to be spooked by something. Paul.

Yeager: Let's talk corn because the export sales sets this record that has been, I would imagine, the biggest support for what is supposed to be this large crop on top of a large carryout from before.

Roose: Yeah. Most definitely. I mean, our export pace, our demand base has been very strong. But then you look at it, our neighbor is the one that's bought about a third of our exports on corn. So big exports. But it's from our neighbor Argentina is selling corn. We've got a lot of competition. So I think the biggest supportive thing on the corn market is the fact that the producer shed the old crop supplies, but at this price level, Paul, it really doesn't work for a lot of people and no interest in selling corn at harvest. At these prices. That's what we're seeing.

Yeager: Do you get the sense that when you mention harvest that we have maybe seen that harvest low even before we start harvest?

Roose: Well, I tell you, we might be very similar to last year. Remember, we put our biggest yield in August. Doesn't that sound similar? That's what we've done so far this year. And then what happened is the yield constantly got lower until we hit the January report. It looks like so far from what we're picking up across the gut side of the corn Belt, the corn yield just isn't there. In fact, it's down like 1030 bushels versus a year ago. So look for that to ratchet down. Carryouts probably go down. But the demand also the government has it very lofty. Paul.

Yeager: Well, so then, what, what do you anticipate then, ahead of the report next week?

Roose: Well, yeah, we've got the stocks position report next Tuesday. So the government is going to tell us where, what do we have for stocks in the U.S. So you know it looks like that one usually isn't a big mover. But if anything it maybe could be a little bit bigger on corn, a little bit smaller on soybeans. Don't look for that to be a market mover. I think it's really what is the real yield coming off the combine test weights are poor you know. So that's one. We do have big carries in the corn market which is to the producer advantage.

Yeager: But do you get the sense that you the market has to really, truly see that the test weights aren't good and the yields are not as good before we see some type of action higher?

Roose: Well, I think what we really need to do is the end user says, you know, at this price level, I don't think it's going down a lot. And they start to cover. So I think that's the number one thing. And like we said in wheat, the funds are short about 100,000 contracts of corn. So you need a catalyst to move them out of that. It's more than likely this time of year. It's the yield going down. You know, usually we go down into harvest in a countercyclical yield. If the year isn't there, yield isn't there. You go up into harvest. So let's see.

Yeager: Let's talk about kind of that elephant in the room, Argentina. You mentioned it already with a little bit of corn. The story, though, impacted the bean market. Is that move and reaction to Argentina dropping of the taxes China come in and buying. Has that been overplayed.

Roose: Well, if you look at it we had a huge whipsaw. Here's what happened the beginning of the week Monday Argentina took the tax off of their corn soybeans 24% on corn, 26 on beans. That made Argentines farmer soybeans $3 higher a bushel, corn $0.50 a bushel. They sold it. The world market press lower on soybeans in China bought like 150 million bushels of soybeans from Argentina. So I think the bottom line is, when you look at that, Paul, we had a lot of negative news this week. Soybeans didn't go down. I always say it's more important how you react to the news than the news.

Yeager: But the news wasn't exactly friendly, which to me, doesn't it seem that a continued adding a layer of layer of news? We haven't even gotten to the C word yet. We'll get to that in a minute. Are we coming back? Is anybody coming back to buy the U.S. beans anytime soon?

Roose: Well, remember, we probably have lost China. Our biggest buyer bought 54% of our exports last year, 800 and some million bushels. They bought zero so far this year. Usually they bought like 400 million bushels by now. So ask yourself, how much did we lose? But if you look at it in the world perspective, Paul, I think you're shuffling some of these around. We lost big to China, but I think we'll pick up others. Soybean demand. But is it enough? That's the question. Because something in the world, it's a world market. And that's what we're looking at.

Yeager: And that's a couple of questions we'll get to in Market Plus. And as we look at the January soybean contract looks very, very similar to that November 1st, 1033 is where we finished. But I want to go to Dan in Nebraska's question, and it is about China. And Dan wants to know, are we at the new norm for sales to China? And and if that's the case, what do we do now?

Roose: Well, we're pushing more demand over to Brazil all the time. I mean, that's what's happened with this tariff situation. And maybe other countries with big tariffs. I think our growth area, you know, much like what happened to corn, our growth area was ethanol, our growth area and soybeans no doubt is the biofuel industry. And I think that's where we're going. Brazil acres are going to be up almost 4% again this year. I mean, they continue to expand all the time. You know, when I first got into this business, they were basically non-existent as far as production. Now Brazil alone produced this year they're going to produce, let's just say, 6.3 billion bushels. We're going to produce 4.3 billion. So they're the big elephant in the room. We continue to lose every year as far as production.

Yeager: We got a lot of elephants in this room. You've dropped one I've dropped one. okay. Let me see if I got this right. Corn and beans. You're not hearing of anybody picking up the phone to make sales right now.

Roose: I think if there's going to be sales, it's going to come more from the soybeans. But nobody really wants to sell at these price levels, Paul. And if they do, they want to reown it somehow.

Yeager: Do they want to sell live cattle right now?

Roose: Well, the cattle market this week was iffy when we were down 3 to $5 a hundred weight on cattle. The cattle numbers aren't there. They're not going to be there. We're an expansion phase. The government sent some signals out that they're going to do some stuff with CRP and maybe some other things, but it's the demand side of the market. Paul. You know, that's the big thing. You tell me. We're down basically 2% on cattle really this next year from a production, but we're 25% higher as far as price. So it's the consumer that's kind of pushed things up here. Packers losing about $200 a head to go home at night. Cash market is under pressure. Box beef is down $45 in just short order. That's 11%. So something's going to give soon. But Packer the break even by the feedlot. Very lofty. 235 240 whoever would have thought.

Yeager: Well, who would have thought these prices, period. Do you get the sense that you mentioned Packer margins? There is a question that I think we'll get to in plus about Packer margins. Do you how much interest is there in buying and how heavy are these animals? I mean, that's the that's the big concern too.

Roose: That you hit the nail on the head, Paul, because what we're running into is feedlot after feedlot feeders are so high that what they're doing is they're putting on extra pounds. I mean, we've had feedlots tell us they're going to put on another 100 to 200 pounds versus what their normal are. That's a lot. This last week we put on about 15 pounds over a year ago. That's about 10,000 head a week. So that's what's happening part of it. But you know you talk about we were talking about the cow calf business and also from an expansion standpoint, the cow calf people are looking at it from a tax standpoint. We're running into more people holding heifers back. Just from a tax standpoint.

Yeager: Because that way they and why.

Roose: They don't have to pay taxes on it, they push them ahead. You know. So maybe that's a helpful thing. That's true capitalistic thing. We'll see.

Yeager: Well, the secretary of ag was in Kansas City this week talked about, you know, you kind of mentioned maybe no government support coming. I mean, is there going to be much appetite to help the or need to help the the livestock industry right now given the prices we've.

Roose: Well, you know, the cow calf guy is fine. You know he's the biggest margins we've had. But it's the, you know, the feedlots. Sure you can make big money on 1 or 2 turns of cattle, but then you're breakevens change and, you know, there's a lot of risk on the table. And that's what the government said. They're looking at CRP programs and helping out on some subsidies for some of these insurance products.

Yeager: And the question we always ask is, it sounds like what you talked about, corn and beans and wheat, is this an opportunity to fill some feed needs? Then?

Roose: Well, I think from a from a cattle standpoint. I mean, if the At harvest is usually a good time to cover your needs. So there's no doubt we've got feedlots that are pretty well covered on feed needs just because there's too much risk. If it goes up. I mean maybe it goes down 20 or $0.30. Not a big deal.

Yeager: Hogs and pigs report hog inventory down at 1% this week. What's that tell you.

Roose: That's a bullish report, I mean it's one of the most bullish reports I've seen for a long time. Paul, if you put it in perspective, our farrowing for the summer 30 year low, our breeding herd down to 11 year low. So I mean these are just bullish numbers. I think the surprise was we pushed up to resistance, made some new contract highs but not wildly. And I think that's part of it. Just says that maybe we think that it's going to start our farrowing were at 100%. So maybe 103 105 is good for now. On the hogs.

Yeager: Do you see the summer months? Do you see this lasting a long time?

Roose: Well, you know, we build up hogs faster than we do cattle. So I think that's the one thing I think if the if the hog industry has some profits, I think they'll start to build the herd. We haven't seen that yet, but I think that could be the next move.

Yeager: You know what my next move is to say thank you. 

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