Market Plus with Don Roose

Paul Yeager: Welcome into the Friday, May 16th, 2025 installment of Market Plus. Don Roose still with us here. Don, we have some questions that are very similar to the show. First, I want to thank you for filling in. And the reason is Matt Bennett is still trying to plant. We'll have him here in June. But, Don, that's why I asked you the question about the narrowness. Matt was saying in his part of Illinois, just 100 miles away, they are in need of a rain shower. They have everything planted. And where he's at. He's only a third done with corn and a third done with beans. If you are in one of those places, how do you market your crop?

Don Roose: Well, thanks for having me back, Paul. But, you know, how do you market your crop? And you're right. I mean, every year there's some area that's having some planning issues. You know, the southeast is probably one, you know, up, in the, the northern Plains part of that far north is having some issues. Like you're saying, parts of Illinois, but for the most part, the crops going in favorably. And that's what the market reacted to this last week.

Paul Yeager: Well, the market you said something Sunday night that I ran out of time during the show and couldn't follow up with. Sunday night we're going to see this forecast with a whole lot of rain. Traders are going to wake up Monday morning and go, there's a lot of rain in areas that have been dry, low ahead?

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think, you know, it's more important, Paul, when you get that news, how do you react to it? And that way we know if we've close to some kind of a low. So at these - I mean I think if it was the middle of July, if it was a different time frame, I think it'd be a bigger deal because it's going to be more important as we come out of the, you know, the 30 day forecast is warmer and drier, so we'll see.

Paul Yeager: And that's what you had mentioned. We need to get past Memorial Day, get to pollination. So we do. We have a long way to go.

Don Roose: All we've done so far is we've taken some risk premium out of the market. You know, too much maybe, just because we're getting the crop planted. So now we'll see once what happens, going forward, May 27th, you're going to start to look at the good, the excellent ratings, on these crops, corn and beans. And then you'll, you know, people start to put a yield on it. So, that's in front of us. I always say this like card game, Paul. You know, as the cards come out, you'll be a little bit smarter, you know? But right now, they're still coming out pretty fast.

Paul Yeager: How about I bring out some questions? Can I deal out a couple of those for you?

Don Roose: You can deal them out.

Paul Yeager: All right. Let's start with Phil in Ontario. Got him off the planter for just a moment. Actually, he might have sent this to me while he was on the planter. Soybeans have shown us something lately before soybean oil dragged them down last Thursday. Is their facility for a, is there a facility for a rise in new crop and soybean prices if USDA drops soybean acreage looking ahead? The wide open planting window surely favored even more corn going in.

Don Roose: Well, I think when you look at it, I think, it tells you how important some of these biofuel programs are, what they mean to the market. You know, we're talking soybeans, but look at corn ethanol. We use 55 or 5.5 billion bushels of corn. But, you know, I think it's going to be a choppy market, you know, right now, until we see more information down the road Paul. 

Paul Yeager: All right. There's beans. I want to talk about beans and corn in their relationship with Dan in Iowa’s question here. And this is one that I've kind of had and I'm very curious what your take is, is corn leading soybeans or vice versa or something else leading both of them?

Don Roose: Well, I think when you look at the fundamentals, the corn is a stronger market up there, followed by the wheat market. And I think soybeans are actually the lagger, but with the, acres down as much as they are in the demand still strong by the government under 300 million, carryout, I mean, that can change pretty fast on you. We got a big South America crop. Didn't really press to the downside a lot. The government actually has prices, what, $10.20 for next year versus $9.95 this year. So, I think it's a market that the yield is so important, Paul. I mean, like we were talking earlier, if you lose one bushel an acre, to two, it's a huge deal.

Paul Yeager: And there's a number of reasons that can happen when you've been dry for consecutive years, there's not as much subsoil. Right. And so you're more susceptible the third year in you're more susceptible to drier conditions. Right.

Don Roose: Yeah. You are. Well and I mean, soybeans are August is a month for soybeans. And basically, you know, we've lost the export market to South America right now, but when we hit the middle to the end of the summer, our export market will pick up again. So, let's see what some of these trade tariffs do, what the weather is, and, the wrong time of year to be too negative, but it also is a place for a producer that you need to start looking what do I do with my new crop?

Paul Yeager: Alright, let's talk about those pairings again. If we could. Corn, beans, wheat, normally corn and wheat will travel together, but that doesn't seem to be happening right now. What has changed to take away some of that conventional wisdom thinking?

Don Roose: Well, I think the one thing is the kind of sword. I mean, the wheat market, you know, key reversal got pretty low $5. You know, in the corn market, they both kind of bottom together here this week, the soybean market tried to move to the upside. You're right. We made, you know, we were going to take a run at $11 that looked like. And then we got hit with the bean oil coming under pressure due to some uncertainties with these, some of these biofuel mandates. So, pretty important what happens with this biofuel mandate.

Paul Yeager: That has been a big, much larger of a conversation topic than I thought it would be. And do you see, that is I, I'm not going to say, necessarily the word savior, but the saving grace moving forward?

Don Roose: Oh, definitely. I think when you look at it, in the future, it's going to be all about aviation fuel. It's all about biodiesel. You know, look at our corn market right now, 36% of our usage is, it comes from, ethanol. So I think that's where we're moving, not only in the United States, but I think we're moving there in South America also. They're expanding. We're expanding. So we need a little help from the government. I guess that's what the market's saying.

Paul Yeager: Well, let's discuss another topic that's always of interest. And on top of mine, that's fertilizer. Gary in Wisconsin wants to know, Don. With increasing fertilizer prices, low grain prices, tariffs and early planting. If we have summer rains, what is there to be bullish about? Have farmers sat on their hands too long and missed some selling opportunities?

Don Roose: Well, he's right from one standpoint, I think from the middle of May to the, early June, you look at where is the best place to get some marketing going forward. After that, you're down to some weather concerns. So, I think we're just not quite up to bat yet, but, yeah, last year we went to $3.85 on December corn. No reason to think that with all good weather that you can't go down to $3.70. That's the real problem, you know? So, yeah, I mean, I think you have to keep a keen eye on when to do some marketing, Paul. And weather scares, tariff strength, biofuel plus. I think those are things you're now starting to be, on the watch.

Paul Yeager: Do you think Monday's movement was more because of tariffs or because of WASDE?

Don Roose: Well, I think Monday, you know, we had some positive news and we just didn't, you know, we had overnight we had the US-China tariffs being lowered and, you know, a little more of a 90 day cool off period, a little bit positive. The WASDE was a little bit positive. And we reacted negative. That's not a good sign. It means we're too high.

Paul Yeager: Well speaking of high, we need to follow up this from the previous discussion. Scott in Wisconsin. Have cattle hit their seasonal top. You don't even have to say seasonal. Have they hit the top?

Don Roose: Well, I think when you look at it, Paul, if you're a technical trader, all indications are we've hit the multi-year top. You know, some of these wave count tops. You know, you've got everything in place, you've got high price beef that, you know, does a consumer start to balk. You're getting that Memorial Day buying behind you from the seasonal standpoint. And, you know, the packers are starting to cut hours on cattle and you're starting to see increased weight. So, all the ingredients are there. The technicals look worse than the fundamentals because beef made it all to an all time high on Friday. $3.53 and the cash was $1 to $2 lower midweek and then close steady.

Paul Yeager: You had mentioned those weights that they're heavy. Does that mean anything? 

Don Roose: Well that's it. You know, we've been accounting for about 20,000 head more cattle a week just because of the weight. So it's making up a lot of the, the, the number loss that we've had. And but, you know, when you look at the government, we're talking about where are the prices? Okay, let's look at the government. The government. We had a WASDE report in the report, the government put the fourth quarter cattle prices at $2.20 for this year, for $2.20 for 2026, first quarter at $2.22. So the government's giving you a bullish tone. But I've seen the government awful lot, you know, before. So yeah.

Paul Yeager: I've never heard you say it either. Let's finish if we could on hog market because I kind of ran you out of that at the end. Not necessarily you have to answer with BLT’s, but Matthew in Nebraska wants to know, will we see the hog market start to climb after Memorial Day, or we just stuck? We did put on $2 this week.

Don Roose: No, we did, and I think that's it. That's the hog market. I mean, we've got the seasonals. You know, we're talking about demand. You know, probably you're getting from a price standpoint, if the beef market tops out probably it comes from the pork expansion from the consumer. Picking up more pork at the store. Seasonally we usually go up like we alluded to. BLT season and it does push you up into the summer 40%, of bellies rally, 40%. And that pulls up the carcass and that pulls up the hog, so and the charts don't look that bad. The charts look like you have a target of that gap area $105.17. So, not a real reason to be overly negative now, but be careful of the fourth quarter.

Paul Yeager: All right. Don, good to see you.

Don Roose: Thank you, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Don Roose everyone. That's going to do it for our Market Plus. I do want to remind you to get signed up for the Market to Market Insider newsletter. It's free. Sign up at markettomarket.org. Next week. We look at the many sides of the renewed water fight in the South Texas area. We'll also have the commodity market analysis with Sue Martin.

Paul Yeager: Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

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