Market Plus with Naomi Blohm

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Welcome to the table for the Friday, July 25th, 2025 installment of Market Plus. And joining us now, Naomi Blohm to pick up the conversation. I guess kind of where we left off. We talked a little bit about corn, but maybe not enough. So you were telling me that sometimes when we have these years of bumper crops, there are there's something that happens that's not always positive, right?

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So when you look back at some of the years, especially in the, like 2015, 16, 17, 18, those were years where we had plethora of supplies for multiple years. And so as we got to harvest, yes, there was a harvest low that occurred around Labor Day. But a lot of those years, the market just didn't get up and go and have a post harvest rally like we had last year. Last year was, just something where we had our low in late August and then the market rallied all the way till February. So the concern would be if the crop is truly as big as some of the industry think that it might be, I mean, it could take a while to harvest it. It could take a while to move what you need to move to town and then get the rest that you want in storage at home. And sometimes we might just see a market that finds the low, but doesn't rally and just trades in a very lackluster pattern until it knows for sure how big the crop is or what gets to town, gets to town and gets moved, or how big the piles are in town. So I think there's a lot of people who are hoping for a repeat of last year, like Slam Dunk. We're going to see this harvest low and prices are going to go higher after that. And I and just depending on how big this crop is, I don't know if that's what's going to occur or not. And and part of that does depend on, you know, what happens with soybeans in terms of what China is buying in terms of, do we see that strong demand there?
Do we move those beans fast and get those exported out of the country? And then also starts to set the stage for the supply and demand tables for next year. So, unless there's a very big surprise at harvest in terms of the yield, I think it might pay to be a little bit more defensive minded for a little longer than maybe what we're hoping for. And I know it's not what people want.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: No, not an easy correction.

Naomi Blohm: No it's not. But that just might be what we're facing. So just be ready for that scenario as a possibility okay.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Good to discuss this. Right okay. And be mindful of what could happen. Well I want to move on to some social media questions that we have. This one is coming from Dan and he's asking where is the breaking point. Is it $2 corn $5 beans, $3 wheat? What prices would it take to break all farmers and government aid? Yeah, it's kind of a dark question. But again you got to be mindful of these.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So, you know, in years past when corn prices got cheap, they didn't really get to much below $3. Like looking back at the past decade being prices didn't go too much below $8. And I feel that the input costs have not come down yet. So we need to see input prices come lower. But, I don't think that the market prices are just going to totally capitulate lower from here. It might be something where we go back into a trading pattern, like what we saw from 2015 until 2019. And much of it just depends on how big our crop is here and how big that South American crop is next year. So there still are, you know, some scenarios that could unfold to justify higher prices. But at this point, it's all I think, weather dependent. If we ever have a weather issue in South America, that would be a reason for our prices to go higher here, because global demand continues to be so strong. So, so the demand story is friendly, period. It's just that there has been enough supply grown so far this year to more than meet all of that demand. So, I'm hoping we don't see, a major, major price move lower.

Naomi Blohm: I think it seems a little premature for this year, based on what we know right now.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Okay. All right. Jim in North Iowa says, what can farmers grow that the world needs that's not traded in Chicago? I'm interested in this answer.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So it makes me think back. So like in the 1990s, I grew up in the Madison, Wisconsin area, and, tobacco chewing tobacco was just a big cash crop back then. And so I worked seven summers on farms with chewing tobacco and all of the, growing process that's involved with that. And so I don't know if it's going to be a specialty cash crop like that, or if it is where the folks in the Dakotas go back to, maybe sunflower seeds, and that kind of a thing. So specifically as far as what, American farmers can grow, obviously it's limited to our geography. But it does feel like maybe we have to branch out and be a little bit more creative if we're going back into that period of lower prices. So I don't know what the answer is, but it does get my head spinning. For what what could be a possibility out there?

Brooke Kohlsdorf: What could be next? Great question. All right. I have a feeling that this is a first in the history of Market to Market. The first time we've referenced this particular person, I could be wrong, but I'm glad to be here for it. So Glen in Ohio is asking what Ozzy Osbourne song most represents the current pulse of the grain market. Ozzy passed away this week, made big news. There are some great, great song titles that could be incorporated.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. What's your so perfect question? As I, as a former member of a rock band of a garage band. So. Yeah. Cheese stick Thunder. Yeah, I have retired, I have retired, but, so still music is near and dear to my heart. And I still love to sing and, play piano and write songs. And actually, this week I ended up, downloading and buying the song “Mama, I'm Coming Home” and I learned it this week on piano. But to answer Glen's question, I think, it's a combination of three songs. Okay, if you look at the chorus on “Mama, I'm Coming Home” I feel like it kind of represents the grain market right now as far as kind of a little bit more of a sadder vibe. But when you look at the verses on “Crazy Train” and “War Pigs”, it actually, even though those songs were written decades ago, it's still is actually reflective of current political situations or current ideologies. So I think with “Crazy Train” that might be the cattle market, like just keep running higher, you know, just the wheels going everywhere. That cattle market definitely feels like crazy train and, well, with “War Pigs” maybe the hog market, but yeah. So, yeah, you could write a mash up with those three songs and, come up with the answer, but yeah, first time ever we got to talk about Ozzy Osbourne on Market to Market.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: And I'm just learning so much about you that I had no idea that you were in a band and you were so musical. That's so interesting to me. Yeah, yeah. Okay. What was it? The cheese stick?

Naomi Blohm: Cheese stick Thunder. Yes. You can find our footage on Facebook. We haven't taken the page down yet, but, Yeah, I love that, I retired, maybe.

Brooke Kohlsdorf
Okay. Okay. All right. Well, that was so fascinating. “Crazy Train” it is. And, so trade deadlines. Let's talk maybe a little more serious now. So trade deadlines are happening. Some of them next week, August 1st is the deadline. And then for China, it's a little later in the month. What are your thoughts headed into that time period.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So I feel like we're almost immune to some of the headline deals. And so some of the trade deals that have been happening, it's countries almost meeting the demand that they had before. We've only seen a few countries that started to say that they would buy above and beyond. And the elephant in the room continues to be China with soybeans. And then we still are looking to finalize things with Canada and Mexico and of course, with with Mexico that's the bulk of our corn exports. So, you know, does President Trump kick the can down the road again, get everybody a little bit of an extension or do we start to hammer things out? But what we're going to really want to watch and focus on is any sign of new demand, something that would take us over and above current USDA projections. If we don't see that, then we're going right back in to weather watching. So, it'll it's something we have to absolutely be in tune to. There's also a fed meeting next week. We're not expected to see the Fed's drop interest rates or anything. But to start to see some of the commentary that they have coming out of that, the market's going to be in tune to that. And there's a lot of different global, financial announcements coming out next week. So next week is it's a big week for the world for global economies. But yeah, those trade deals are important. And the sooner we can get those answers, the better.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: What is your, pick for the week commodity wise?

Naomi Blohm: Well, I would say commodity wise, we're going to want to watch that cattle market in the feeder cattle market. They're going to be the ones that have the potential to, possibly run higher if the trade wants to bite into those, bullish cattle on feed numbers. That would be a market that could maybe have a blow off top. We'll see. But otherwise what we'll be watching on the grain side is if, December Chicago wheat can hold $5.50 support, we're going to see if December corn can hold $4 support. We're going to see if November beans can hold $10 support. So it'll be kind of, polar opposites as far as grains trying to not fall apart lower. While the livestock sector cattle, the feeder cattle have the ability maybe to take another crazy train, run higher yet.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Okay. We'll end with Ozzie. Okay. Thank you so much, Naomi. This has been a great conversation. All right. A reminder to get signed up for the Market to Market Insider newsletter. It is free. You can sign up at Market to market.org. Next week, how rural communities are keeping tabs on decision makers while connecting readers and commodity market analysis with Matt Bennett. Thanks for joining us, and have a great week.
 

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.