Market Plus with Sue Martin

[Yeager] Welcome back to the table for the Friday, August 29th, 2025 installment of Market Plus Sue Martin with us, Sue, we'll get to your cattle comments in a moment. I want to start with hogs. We heard from the president. We see what they're facing. What's this market facing right now?

[Martin] Well, I think first off, when I look at what our slaughter is, it's less than what it was predicted to be in the last hog and Pigs report back in June. And I think it was wrong. I think they made mistakes. And because the proof of the pudding is that the numbers you're slaughtering are less than they predicted. So I'm thinking in this September quarterly report, I'm wondering if USDA will be quick to revise some of the data that they've had. And I look at the hog report or the hog market, and it looks to me once seasonally, it tends to rally into October. Sometimes it can scooch into November, but it tends to try to push higher into October. And October is called pork month. And so I guess I would have to say, I think the hog market has got lows in it, and I think it's going to go higher now, let's say we get an announcement of the new rules. World screwworm in cattle in the U.S. I think that's going to damage demand, consumer demand at a very high price. They're going to back up because it doesn't sound real warm and fuzzy.

[Yeager] For beef. You're talking here.

[Martin] Yes. But they'll go over to pork I think they'll move over and start buying pork. And then that along with numbers tightening a little bit, I could see the hog market continuing to move higher.

[Yeager] Because this cattle market had been moving mostly up prior to this summer. On lack of numbers, high, a little bit of demand. It wasn't an insect. The insect has changed this game.

[Martin] Yes it has. And I think when there was news, I think it was Monday or whatever day it was, maybe Tuesday, I think it was Monday that they had heard about this woman coming from Guatemala and had the New World Screwworm parasite. It I the market broke. In fact, feeders opened limited down and then they came. They opened lower and then within a heartbeat they were limited down and then came off it. Well, I think if anything that showed you the character of how they're going to address the market because it's an uncertainty and demand's been fairly good. And, you know, one thing that has really driven the cattle market has been the grind. And we don't have enough cow beef, you know, to be able. So they've had to pull from heifers and slaughter steers. And I think that's been part of the drive here for the cattle market. Now this week the market long weekend with all this talk of New World Screwworm, I think there was a little apprehension in the feeder market. We got up to 370, you know, basis of September. I have a fourth wave count in a price projection tool that comes in at three 8120. So you're kind of pushing up towards that area. You don't have to go exactly to it. But I think the market broke on that news. But also being fueled a little bit by liquidation of a long weekend just in case what happens, because they'd walk in and the market would open Tuesday morning, limit down, and you wouldn't be able to get out if you were long and you wouldn't be able to sell short if you wanted to, because it would have a huge pool there. And then we'd have to work through how the public addresses this and reacts to it.

[Yeager] And they're all about to start getting together at tailgates and have a conversation on a much more regular basis, especially at some places where they really know what they're talking about. I want to talk about the fed or the herd rebuilding. Joel in Oklahoma wanted to make sure that I asked you this. Sue Joel's question was, when does the U.S. cattle herd rebuilding begin? 26, 27 or later?

[Martin] I think we've already started the holdback of heifers, which is your first start of retention. But I also think we're going to see that again next year. So if the cattle price breaks and it could be pretty whippy because I mean, like I say, in some years past we've had $30, $34. One year it was $34.60 break from the high to the ultimate low of the December contract into February, or I should say into January. It was late January with the February contract and the April contract that year put its low in in, I think, February 24th of the next year. And then we started back up. This cattle market has a technical layout, Elliott Wave, where we can get a break here, and it could be a healthy one for as high as we are and then turn right around and start looking back again. And we don't know what kind of winter we're going to have either. If it's a cold, snowy winter that could influence this market as well and help bring us back up because we are tight. Supplied. But the. Here, June, rain was the sixth largest in since 1960 of rain. And then we turned dry in August. Along with the price of feeder cattle to hold back heifers for breeding purposes. So I think we've started it and I think you'll see it continue in 26.

[Yeager] All right. Let's get to grains here a little bit. I want to combine a couple of questions. We're going to show you Randy or I'm sorry Randy and Iowa's first question. And and Brad had a similar question. Sue Randy's was Will cotton and small grains buy back acres in 26 from corn and beans, which is also similar to Ronald's or to Brad's question of the acreage mix for next year.

[Martin] I think, you know we're going to lose some corn acres. Farmers love to plant corn, but I think we'll lose some corn acres just with the rotation, and beans will pick some up. And then it's a matter of how great, you know, I talked about the year of, of 2014 when we went so wet and beans that year put a low in a 901 and rallied to 1089 86, 1086 or 1089. Huge rally for a nice response from a bearish year. And I think we're looking at something a little similar here. So I think that if you get beans are going to have to fight for acres away from corn. And, you know, it depends on the weather greatly disease wise. Yeah, we've had it this year. But next year is a whole new ballgame. And we may not have the disease like this year. So I think this year's the disease is taking a toll on corn. It almost seems like I hear it more in corn than beans. But I think as we go down the road, beans are going to have to fight for acres. Because remember, we want to crush for soy oil. And right now with soy meal. And I may have talked about this on the show Soymeal commitments are 30% over the ten year average, and the new crop coming up, crop year, we're already 40% over the five year average. So bean oil is going to have to do some work.

[Yeager] Pep talk from Sue I like that. Let's close with some positivity. It wouldn't be a show with Sue if we didn't do this. Dan in Oregon. When could we see a five in front of corn and a seven handle on wheat?

[Martin] Well, first off, if we could if President Trump could be successful in getting Ukraine, President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin together, we knew they wouldn't really be able to resolve it real easily because one wants all and the other one doesn't want to give. And so they have to kind of get this massaged a little bit. But if that could happen, I think your wheat market would take off and run. And I think you'd see your $7 wheat because of the fact that Russia is undercutting prices to move wheat and therefore to be competitive, we have to kind of keep our prices low as well, or we'll price ourselves out of the market. In the meantime. The other thing the negative on wheat is this wet weather as they're going into a planting season for another hard red winter wheat. And so you kind of have a mix here. But seasonally, wheat does tend to rally through September. And I look at the corn and corn's already had a five this year. And that was a higher high than actually what corn had for a lead contract last year in 24. So next year might be real interesting because we need to see exports and our export sales have been very good for corn. We and we continue to see Mexico a huge buyer. I sometimes wonder if they start to move away from the drought, if they'll be as avid as they have been.

[Yeager] I guess I didn't let you finish totally on a price number for corn. What do you think? Here in this December contract?

[Martin] I think on the December contract, for now, for 30 to 440 would be the extreme that I would think. And if we catch that really wet fall and things get delayed, then we might do something better. But I think 440 would be an extremely strong price.

[Yeager] But let's just say the forecast isn't quite as different. This thing could easily move lower.

[Martin] Yes it could.

[Yeager] So maybe are you encouraging people to maybe take advantage of sell a little bit, as John Roach would say, dribble some out?

[Martin] Yes, I think so. I would take advantage of it and maybe even look at getting some puts, you know, buy some put spreads, you know, at the money puts selling out of the money puts. And I'd have them below the 385 area because that was your low on a contract last year. So I would probably have like a 350 put or something. But this rally will let you buy your puts cheaper. And I would definitely floor. If nothing else, I would put some floors in on this rally and then pray like the Dickens that it keeps going on higher.

[Yeager] That's all we can do sometimes.

[Martin] That's right.

[Yeager] We'll just keep talking about it the next time you're here. Yeah. All right. Sue, good to see you. Thank you so much. Thank you. And thank you for Sunday. By the way. I hope you had a good time.

[Martin] I had a wonderful time. And it was great seeing all the other analysts. You know, I think we're blessed to have all these individuals on the show and, and I feel honored to have been on market to market for years, and I won't.

[Yeager] A couple of years.

[Martin] Yeah.

[Yeager] We'll we'll show that picture here. I'll tell you in in October, we'll release our 50th season celebration discussion that we had on Sunday. So that might live. That video will live again one more time soon.

[Martin] That sounds fine.

[Yeager] All right. Sue Martin, thank you. 

[Martin] Thank you.

[Yeager] All right. And I do want to let you know about that recap that was in our Market Insider newsletter. That is a free publication. It will return on Tuesday because of the Labor Day holiday. Sign up at Markettomarket.org. Next week we will honor the tradition of cheese making, and Chris Robinson will be here to break down the markets. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week. 

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