Ted Seifried Talks Commodity Markets – Live in LeClaire

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Ted Seifried everybody. Have a seat. Thanks for coming. Welcome to this live MToM podcast taping. Wait a minute. Live to tape.

[Seifried] I don't know.

[Yeager]

You have no idea what you're getting yourself into.

[Seifried] And I was like at a distillery, okay. Which is not a very Paul thing to say.

[Yeager] It was the easiest ask of Ted I think I've ever had to do.

[Seifried] Yeah, maybe.

[Yeager] So Ted Seifried is with us here. This is part of our podcast series. We do thank. you, Ted, you are helping us launch the 10th season of the MToM podcast. All right. You've been on it a couple of times. and that was to learn a little bit more about you. I think we're going to do that in a minute, but I just want to tell everybody where we're at. This is part of our 50th season celebration for Market to market. we've been on public TV stations for 50 seasons. I guess that's how you get to 50 seasons. yeah. That's not my specialty. Yes. You know, Ted. Yeah. I can't even count down time. but we are distributed to almost 20 states and almost 20 stations. I always get that number wrong. So I look to the boss. David Miller is our executive producer. He is here today, and he thinks I'm actually going to listen and pay attention to him today. Why change and why start now? But we have been to the Iowa State Fair where we had two live podcast guests, here we were at the pork producers, and we went to the beef producers. We went to my hometown of Jesup, Iowa. Sue Martin came there. We took Kristi Van Kjeseth to Cherokee. Went to Lincoln, Nebraska, with Ross Baldwin. And Ted Seifried now joins us here in LeClaire. We're at the Mississippi River Distilling Company. A little history. I don't know how much you know about this business. Do you know much about them?

[Seifried] You know, I really don't.

[Yeager] So they are, Ryan Burchett and his brother started this business more than ten years ago. Ryan and I were coworkers. He did weather at KMT in Mason city. That's where I met him and his wife, Monica, who, thank you to Monica. She's been very busy. She had no idea 25 years ago when she was sitting next to me in Mason City, that we'd be out here like this. Did you? Monica? No. Ryan. And, they started this business. And part of their story, Ted, is, they locally source some of their grain for their products.

[Seifried] That's great.

[Yeager] So that is kind of a thing.

[Seifried] Any demand we can get, Paul.

[Yeager] So, Ted, you are a guy from. I do have some questions. and we'll get to those in a minute. But, Ted, let's first talk about you. One of my favorite stories is you in one of your earliest jobs at the Chicago Board of Trade. But let's rewind a little bit before that. Where'd you grow up?

[Seifried] Western Illinois. so outside of Havana, but moved to the Chicagoland area when I was 13. My father was a dentist. We had a small hobby farm, but he moved his dental practice up to Deerfield, Illinois, to join his roommate from college. And, so I grew up there, but, started working down on the Board of Trade, after my senior high school and then went back to Western Illinois for school, ended up going to the Netherlands for a semester, but then stayed for an internship with a dairy company and then when I came back from that, I started working on the board full time.

[Yeager] One thing you left off was one of your activities at Western Illinois.

[Seifried] Yeah, I played rugby.

[Yeager] I love that. Rugby player. What, what did rugby teach you about life?

[Seifried] Well, I broke this hip and have titanium pins in my butt.

[Yeager]  They said I might have to get a hip replacement between 40 and 45. I'll be 45 in August, and it's starting to bother me.

[Yeager] Is it really?

[Seifried] Yeah. There are consequences. But, no, I mean, being part of a team is really fantastic. Yeah. I mean, just anything competitive is, I think, really good for just the psyche and, you know, athletics, you know, physicality, things like that.

[Yeager] Which is a transition to the Chicago Board of Trade in the old days. Yeah. Yeah, it was competitive. And you were having to bull rush some things. What was that?

[Seifried] Yeah. No. so especially market night close. Right. I mean, the last two minutes of trading, you would get orders coming out from the rows there, just rows of phones with carts sitting there taking orders and then holding them up. And I would grab that order and run it out to that pit. But you've got runners going both directions. And I got known for really not caring who was in my way. And, I, you know, I'm fairly wide but low to the ground. Right. So like, I would get underneath you. And so if you ran over, my, so my nickname, was Tank, again low to the ground and wide. But yeah. No, that was fun. I really enjoyed doing that. It was just, you know, I mean, back on the floor was a thing, just the atmosphere, the energy, all that it was, it was a whole lot of fun to be down there.

[Yeager] Do we have anybody here that ever saw the Chicago Board of Trade in its heyday in person? Yeah. Is he pretty accurate on his description? I mean, it's not just Ferris Bueller's Day Off where they sit up above and flash the signs. I mean, it was a legit place when that went silent.

[Seifried] You guys might have seen me flip somebody over my back.

[Yeager] You were in that footage? That's right. I did see that. when the pits went quiet the way we know that. Did anything change in commodities?

[Seifried] You know, when we first started talking about electronic trading, the idea was like, okay, that will just be sort of like in the background. But the pits will be the main thing. And then we watched that volume and order flow really move off into electronic trading. And then we said, well, you know, the pits always have to be around to keep that electronic trading honest, right. One will pull the other down, vice versa. We'll pick it up. but I think ultimately what we, what we learned is that you didn't need Tank running people over at the end of the day, and then have to sit there and wait five minutes to get your fill back. It was a lot nicer to put an order in, watch it get filled, and know immediately that you're done. So even, like, guys like myself, that were trading on the floor. Yeah. You know, so I was on, I guess at the time, I would say I was in live cattle. Feeder cattle. But I traded corn, too. And, you know, instead of calling over the corn pit, putting an order in there, waiting there, waiting for my fill back, I could get it done immediately. So I think that's when I realized that, you know, okay, the floor is great now, and I love being down here, but it's time to make the transition because the days are numbered, right? And a lot of them didn't make that transition, unfortunately. But, yeah. No, I think we're better off now.

[Yeager] But we're faster.

[Seifried] Yeah.

[Yeager] You were I mean, I mean, you're faster at that moment. And now it is gone. HyperSpeed with algorithmic trading. Yeah, right. Is that fair?

[Seifried] Yeah, I'd say so. That's the one thing I don't love. Now is that first of all, the night session. I don't like how low volume can make big moves in the night session. But also, you know, USDA reports, used to happen in between the end of the night session and the start of the pitch session. We'd have about a half an hour to kind of digest, and then we would trade the reaction on the open. Now it's coming out during the market. Right. And, the human human. I can't read the data fast enough to compete with the, the black boxes, the algorithms. And they're just set to, you know, is it bullish bearish versus expectations. Not necessarily. Is it bullish bearish longer term. Like what are the longer term implications and things like that. So it's a different animal. I think your actual report reactions sometime happen the next day. Once the algos have done their thing. I liked it a lot better when we all had a level playing field and we could all read through it for half an hour before the market open, and then we could go after it.

[Yeager] How do the people who are in this room not staring at 27 screens, compete in an environment like that?

[Seifried] Yeah. I mean, that stuff, I mean, first of all, you can employ a guy such as myself, right?

[Yeager] Are you available for hire?

[Seifried] Oh, yeah.

[Yeager] Yeah, we'll get to what you do in a minute. But, yeah.

[Seifried] You know, I, I don't know. I think you really do have to understand that the first couple minutes of, report reaction a lot of times can be noise, right? and going back to, like, taking it as a balance sheet and kind of looking longer term, it doesn't always matter what the number is versus the analyst expectations. Sometimes the analyst expectations can be really very different than what I think is actually factored into the market. so I think you got to kind of just, you know, give it a moment, let the dust settle and then make your decisions based on your own analysis of what that report said.

[Yeager] I often ask you, when you come on the show, whether it's a head of a report after a report trying to make sense of things, it sounds very consistent with what you're saying is what people can do. Does that work?

[Seifried] Okay. wow. Predicting the future is, Or is I can't say in public, so let's say. Yeah. you know, everything works for the moment. But a lot of, a lot of times when we're looking at, you know, USDA projections that they are exactly that, right? It's, they're giving their best guess of what's going to happen in the future. And none of us can actually know what's going to happen in the future. And so you have to realize that these things can change, and we have to make our decisions about the future based on what we know, what the president, what our expectations are. but again, you know, not it's not always the case that our expectations come true. So, I think, you know, a lot of years, what I'm gonna call normal years where we're trading individual grain fundamentals, things like balance sheets and weather have a massive impact. I mean, that that does make sense. And, I think, yeah, it works. But then you have other years like this or. I mean, we had a lot back, you know, with Covid and the first, trade spat with China. I mean, you have a lot of times where there's these outside factors and money flow and, and things that aren't your typical soybean balance sheet, you know, grain fundamentals, right, that you have to kind of think outside of the box and look at what's going on from the bigger, broader picture. And those can be some of the hardest years for, obviously guys like myself, but more specifically for producers, right? I mean, guys that really just know corn and beans, I mean, that's they know everything about it. But you know what's going on over in China? Or is China invading Taiwan, you know, things like that. Things that can come out of left field and you have to be ready for that. You have to be nimble and you have to be flexible. You can't just get set into one state of mind, because the market will very much prove you're wrong. If that's the case.

[Yeager] Humble, you quickly. Ted, your office is downtown Chicago. Far away from here. Far away from really any field. But yet you need to know what happens in Scott County and Henry County, Illinois. Like Lyon County or in South Dakota or Kansas or Taiwan.

[Seifried] Yeah. By the way, my office is a lot closer to here than there, so that was nice.

[Yeager] Yeah, but you don't get to drive as far then.

[Seifried] I do like to drive. Yeah. So, I mean, one of the great things that I have is, you know, I've got clients all over the growing area. so I get to talk to a lot of guys that will give me a lot of feedback of what's going on in their neck of the woods. I also spend a lot of time during the summers, you know, going to visit guys and Scott, Scott Fields, and then, you know, my big one is I do the Pro Farmer crop tours. I believe this is my 10th year. so, I mean, as far as, you know, seeing things with my own eyes, you know, getting my own opinion of what I think. And by the way, I'm not part of Pro Farmer. So their numbers and my numbers can be very different. They have been very different for the last few years.

[Yeager] Hold on. You mean. You mean your numbers? You're taking data? Yeah. And making your own reports. Do you contribute that to Pro Farmer?

[Seifried] Well, I mean, as you know, I run and write any of the public estimates that we give come from me. And so, yes, my numbers are different than Pro Farmer’s number. They have theirs. but mine is partially based on what I see on crop tours. but for me, it's a very important week. It's, I like to say it's, a week that I love, but I also hate, it's a lot of work. It is a lot of work. I mean, I think a lot of people that see what's happening in Pro Farmer from social media or the nightly meetings or stuff like that, think that we're all just out there having a grand old time. It is a lot of work. I mean, it's 12 hours a day of traveling and, you know, scouting fields and I mean, usually whether it's too hot to cold or rain or whatever, I mean, it's a really tough week, especially when you throw. I do a lot of extra stuff, too, like, I do a lot of media reports from the field and stuff like that that most of the guys don't have to do. So it's just a very stressful week for me. But it's also my most rewarding from a research, production, perspective. so, I mean, it's great, but I mean, I think without that, I would just be sitting there listening to what other people have to say. And I think seeing things and touching things, and getting my own experience with it, it's really beneficial for me. and the estimates that I'm making in there for the decisions and the advice I'm giving, when it comes to markets and, again, trying to predict the future.

[Yeager] One of the people that goes on those trips with you or on the leg is Karen Braunrom Reuters Open Interest who's here today. You two have done crop tours for a number of years and talk a lot during the day. And not just crop tours, but throughout the year.

[Seifried] Yeah. She doesn't go with me, right? .

[Yeager] Correct. Correct.

[Seifried] She's been doing it a long time.

[Yeager] Yes, I think she said 11 years maybe?

[Seifried] Yeah. and she was it was last year, the year before, designated as a, as a, as a master scout. so, yeah, she's got a long relationship with the crop tour. But, yeah, I mean, Karen's a friend of mine, and we do talk throughout tours about what we're seeing and things like that, occasionally. And so historically, we've both gone on the West. I've gone to the East a few times too, but, I mean, aside from here, I've got a lot of friends on the East. and so a lot of us are kind of talking to each other throughout to, like, check in, maybe what you see today and so, yeah, I mean, that's that whole week everybody wants to know what's the crop like. And it's much feedback and, and data we can get from that is what we're, that's what we're there for.

[Yeager] I'm going to do in the broadcast business what's called a tease. Now if you allow me for a minute the next podcast after this one is going to be a recording with Karen Braun, and she's going to talk about the crop tour. I'll let her tell the story about why she picks the same, route every year. That'll be what you'll hear next week in the MToM podcast. See, that's just what they you know, the answer is, one last thing on crop, too. Well, two things on crop tour. When we book you, when I book, you know, three months, six months out in advance or whatever, you know, when we're six months from crop tour, you're six months away from the heat, the humidity, the rain. And you're like, yeah, yeah, I think I'll do it after it sounds great. I tie it all together. I can make it from Rochester to here. Okay. And then I should ask you, you basically need to tell me, please do not book me after crop tour. I am toast.

[Seifried] You know, we did that one year, and, man, I, yeah, right. Heat exhaustion, all that, like, And it was a particularly difficult weather year one year. Yeah. So. Right. Yeah. And but I think we're trying to do that this year because, not for the show itself, but we have the 50th.

[Yeager] The big, we have the big 50th shindig and the promotion. You're in on the secret of that. We're going to have a party in Johnston similar to this with not just Ted, but many of our analysts are going to join us on stage there in Johnston at Iowa PBS. So keep an eye out, in our newsletter, the Market Insider Newsletter. Haha. More promotion, boss I'm on, you can subscribe to that on our website and we'll give you details to their first, Ted.

[Seifried] Wave if I'm napping in the corner if you guys are in the house.

[Yeager] Yeah. One last thing about crop tours. Wear sunglasses?

[Seifried] Oh, yeah. Okay, so, hat and sunglasses are absolutely key. Corn leaves are sharp, especially in drier years. If you go in and forget eye protection, you can catch your eye. And so that was a big problem for me last year. I always had a comb because I just couldn't open my one eye for all the stuff all day. But, yeah, I mean, you guys know, of course, leaves can be very sharp, especially when it's dry. So wear sunglasses.

[Yeager] All right. I had a chance to talk to a few of the people that are here before you arrived today. And there's some that said half an inch, some that said a couple more. We could get a whole bunch of rain in just a few minutes. Yeah, it's really hard to predict weather like it is the markets, but, are we in a typical weather year where it's even or it's spotty. It's hot, it's dry. What are we in for a weather year right now?

[Seifried] I mean, we're sitting on a spot that's showing up on the drought monitor right now. yeah. I mean. It's about middle of the road, right? I mean, it's not a clear drought monitor. it's not one of the worst we've seen either. What I would say is that the longer term forecast, I mean, even going back a month and a half ago, a lot of the weather guys have been talking about the potential for hot and dry in June and July, and that's been backed up by, you know, the extended forecast coming from Noah and so on and so forth. But you know, something that I've been kind of wondering for the last couple weeks is, you know, how often have we predicted a drought three months out of it. Right? And I don't think we have a very good track record with that, which is why I don't think the markets really respond to that quite yet. and you have actually seen those longer term forecast models get a little bit less threatening, still threatening. I mean, there's still concern, but, yeah, I mean, I just don't think you can call. I don't think I can call for a drought in me. I just don't think it works that way. And I don't think markets work that way. So, if we're all sitting here wondering why we're not trading $5 plus corn, that's one of the factors is that we're not ready yet to have a drought market when we're that far out of our growing season. Plus, for again, for an area that is showing up on the Drought Monitor, we got some rain here earlier could hopefully we'll get that rain later. I mean, Nebraska just got a ton of rain.

[Yeager] And they were dry. Very, very dry there.

[Seifried] That's the worst spot on the drought monitor right now. Really. so I mean, there are these rain systems kind of coming through. And so I mean, the current weather pattern looks like it is getting are moving towards a wetter pattern. So I'm, I'm very reluctant to say that we're going to have this hot and dry drought in the West this year. I just, I guess I don't really see that happening in this wet current weather pattern. The markets don't seem to be really wanting to respond to that idea, at least not just yet. I do think it is a good year to have some re-ownership strategies, because I think the markets may be trading lower than they should be based on global stuff. And if that gets cleared up during the growing season and there is a weather issue, I think there's a lot of upside potential because corn has had a lot of demand. but I don't think this is a year where we can just say seasonality is a given. I don't think this is a year where we can say, well, we always have a weather rally, so we're going to have one this year. I think there's a good setup for weather rally this year because we didn't really have one when we showed up at the end of the year last year, and I think the market learned from that. And I think if there is a threat in the right conditions, I mean, bigger picture conditions, I think we could get a significant weather rally this year, but that is. If we're in the right market conditions. I mean, global trade, global economy, these are things that can overshadow actual grain fundamentals or weather fundamentals or drought or no drought.

[Yeager] I'm hearing a couple of ifs in there.

[Seifried] A lot of.

[Yeager] That does not sound reassuring to anybody to make decisions. Have a drink, Ted.

I asked Naomi Blohm, recently on the TV show. I said, weather doesn't seem to be a thing because, question mark? Is it because we have talked weather up the last couple of years, and then rain arrives at the right time, right places, and we get trend line. And those who look at the markets go, all right, they did it again.

[Seifried] Well, one of the major reasons that we have weather rallies during summer is obviously there's a lot of buyers that come in, but, you know, a lot of those buyers are because you've got funds that have been short, you have commercials that aren't firm of booked out. and then you have the smaller speculator coming in on top of that too. Two years ago, we had three fairly violent weather rallies where we spiked higher, but then gave it all back just in a very short period of time. We did that three times. So then, you know, going into next year, during the growing season, I think we had a lot of traders that had, you know, experienced that the year before. So they were a little bit more patient, really getting involved in the rally and so you didn't really have that big weather rally, especially at the end of the year, where I think we should have had a spike on whether the market really didn't do that. so you went from a year where we had a lot of spikes that seemingly at the end, were unnecessary to a year where we didn't have that weather rally really at all, even though maybe we should have. So now, I think this is a year where we are, we're back to having a heightened sense of what can happen, whether because last year was a great year to prove that if we don't finish the crop up, well, if we don't get good rains in August into, September, it can still really hurt a crop. Corn even more so on soybeans. So if we have that set up again this year, I think the market will act differently. I think there will be upside potential. But again, that's in a climate where we're not all sitting. You're talking about, you know, the sky is falling, the S&P is going to zero. And we're never doing business with China again. I'm not saying that's going to be the case. But if that is the backdrop, weather rallies could be a lot more muted.

[Yeager] Well, that's where I wanted to transition to because you said something about being kept up at night, which keeps you up at night more trade uncertainty, weather uncertainty or something else.

[Seifried] It's too early in the year for weather uncertainty for me. You know, right now the weather is about planting and we're ahead of pace on planting. I think we're going to get this crop planted and maybe even then, some. So, weather is not keeping me up at night right now. Yeah. I worry about trade. I worry about, you know, global economy, the US economy. I think at the moment I'm more concerned with the bigger, broader picture things. but I also think that that's what the market's concerns are, too, right. I think I think you could look at any time you can make a case on either side of the market. The bulls have their argument, bears have theirs. I think the Bulls argument is maybe stronger than what the markets are reflecting. And I think that's because the market's really kind of focused in on the bigger, broader picture stuff right now. I don't know if that will be the case a month or two from now. We'll see.

[Yeager] And if we don't. And it's hard to predict. and I'm going to steal somebody's question I heard ask before, what has trade done to corn and beans so far taken anything? Has it taken or added to the market?

[Seifried] You know, it's it's really tough to, just to, to say tariffs have had an effect, because, you know, in particular China pulling back on buying U.S soybeans happened well before tariffs went into place. We really don't have a whole lot on the books for next year, especially to China. but even at the end of, you know, old crop, we really didn't do our normal business with China. So, tariffs, no tariffs. I mean, that's got to be a concern for the rest of the or for the new crop marketing year. but I think from an institutional investor standpoint, there's just this dark cloud over exportable commodities, in particular grains. and so I think that keeps them or at least second gives them a reason to second guess, really getting involved on the long side of things, I think they're a little bit more reluctant, than usual. So I, I do think that has had an effect. I mean, it's hard to put a dollar or cents amount on it per bushel. But I do think that is definitely something that's affecting our markets right now.

[Yeager] If you'd like to talk fuels ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel. Can that help take some of the demand?

[Seifried] Yeah. So SAF is a the, I mean, you go back to the, the big F et all revolution. I mean, that added a huge category for the corn balance sheet demand, side of the core corn balance sheet. And the hope is that that's going to be the next big thing for soybeans. And that is going to be a big deal. I mean, historically, we don't crush soybeans for soybean oil. We crush soybeans for soybean meal. But soybean oil has become a much more valuable product than it has been in the past. So it's adding to the gross margin. It's giving crushers incentive to crush at full capacity or near, But the problem is capacity, right? I mean, it cost a whole lot of money for the infrastructure to build these crush facilities. to, to really, develop that domestic soybean demand. so that that investment has to come. And in order to get that investment, crush margins have to be really good for a long period of time for, for these, you know, major companies to say, hey, we feel comfortable spending all this money in the infrastructure. They also want to be very careful that they don't overspend and they don't over proliferate that infrastructure and kill that margin. because if they oversaturate the market with meal and oil and those profit margins go to zero or negative, then they've really cooked their own golden goose. And so they're. I've talked to these guys and they're really worried about that. They're also worried about policy and how things work with trade. So yes, it's a great new demand for soybeans and soybean oil for the crush. But we have to have the facilities to do that. And that's going to be a slow thing. I think that comes over time, but it's not it's not you can't just go for it. You can't just add 300 million bushels to it's across where you can lose 300 million bushels and exports pretty easily.

[Yeager] You mentioned policy, and we did get some questions when you registered from a couple of people. Brian wanted to know from you. Ted, much of this is policy, federal. We've been stuck on a Farm Bill. I'm sorry. Without a Farm Bill for quite a while. So do you know anything about the Farm Bill that is being talked about now? Is it going to be split? Are we going to take the nutrition out of the other programs? And do you know about anything about farm transitions and, and farm planning? Are you hearing anything about that?

[Seifried] Yeah. No, I mean, your guess is as good as mine on the Farm Bill. I mean, it's really a wild card with the administration that we have. I don't know. I really do not have any expectations for how that's going to play out or when.

[Yeager] And does that matter to trading, to growing, to selling?

[Seifried] I think overall markets, I mean, it can matter over time, but I don't think it's going to be something that's an immediate effect on markets. I don't think there's anything in there that is, you know, a market shock or I think the bigger one. And that is, you know, what happens with 45 and, if that ever finally gets finalized and, you know, the biofuels is that that's the one that's the that's the here now balance. That's what it would affect, near-term demand. That's one of the markets it would be reactive to.

[Yeager] The other two questions I have were pre-submitted, both are good. But I think I'm going to go this, I think I'm going to go in reverse of what I want to do. Let's take Leon's question and he said that he works for a tour company, and every year they have people from Brazil come in and tour around American farms. Should American farmers now get on a plane, go to Brazil and see what they're doing on there? What are they going to learn from them?

[Seifried] Wow. Brazil is such a different, such a different place. Which is why Brazilians want to come here and see what we're doing too, I don't know. I'm. I'm planning on going to Brazil next year for that reason. So, yeah, I think I think we should do that now. How much is farming similar between us and Brazil? I know there's a lot of differences, right? I mean, they're there for two seasons is you know, the big one. Right. And so, I don't know, I'm curious myself, which is why I'm going so like, I'll have a better answer for you when I get back. March. We probably do that on the show.

[Yeager] There you go. Then. We'll have you back. Jet Lag Ted. That's fun.

[Seifried] Yeah.

[Yeager] One thing that I talk about with Karen is a little bit, is Brazil and China and India and Russia and Europe. We all have to pay attention now to global stories, whether we're in LeClaire, Iowa, Chicago, Illinois or wherever. Is that accurate?

[Seifried] Sometimes when things are the rare occasion when things are calm, you know, maybe not. But I mean, I mean, for sure we have to watch Brazil and Argentina weather, South America weather. I mean, we have to realize that we have major competition for, exports. I mean, soybeans, they wind corn. We're barely hanging on, but, yeah, obviously we need to watch for that. But, Yeah. China, you know, I don't know, up until recent years. We certainly want to pay attention to what's happened with the Chinese economy and, you know, are they going to be buying a little bit more or less this year or things like that? But now with trade, it's like, yeah, we have to monitor that situation all the time. So yeah, you know, I'd say when I first got into this business, I guess…

[Yeager] I thought math is hard for me, not for you. 

[Seifried] No, I mean, I do look at it in the last, I'm going to say 5 to 7 years. It's become, we're in a time frame where bigger picture stuff has been affecting us on a very, very regular basis. Black swan events happening on a very regular basis. so, yeah. No, I think this is a time frame where we can't just sit back on typical corn and soybean fundamentals and wheat fundamentals and just say, you know, the balance sheet says this. Well, I mean, that's changing on a daily basis based on, you know, global politics and things like that. So, yeah, no, it's right now. You have to pay attention to that really closely.

[Yeager] All right. I might get us both in trouble with what I'm about to say.

[Seifried] But I like that.

[Yeager] I like this, this is a common conversation with people who are upset that we have taught the Brazilians so much about our agriculture. What happens if Brazil? They've already herd beans and dramatically changed the bean market. What happens if they change the corn market as much as they have the bean market? Is that possible?

[Seifried] I mean, you know, you better get rich every year. so I think it's not only is it possible is probably inevitable. The good thing about corn is that we have a very strong domestic demand for corn. It's not like soybeans were half of our balance sheet goes to export. so that damage has already been done there. You know, they will continue to become more of a of a force for corn, although they do prefer beans. Right. So, I think we will be more competitive in corn for longer. but South Korea is a force to be reckoned with. Brazil in particular. I mean, they don't look like they're slowing down on their acreage expansion anytime soon. Just like us. They're, you know, their yields do seem to continue to trend higher. but, you know, hopefully global demand continues to grow. Hopefully safe is a thing. And, a big driver of that. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's one of those things this fall where we have domestic balance sheets and we have global balance sheets, and there's supply versus demand. And we seem to go through cycles where we spend years of over-supplying the market. And demand doesn't grow, quickly enough. to offset that, we have lower prices. And we say that, you know, the cure for low price is prices, because eventually it grows demand and it grows demand faster than the supply grows to offset that higher supply, but that we'll get into periods of higher prices. And then, you know, we'll reply. And so it's a cycle I think we have just come off of a cycle of, high prices. And we stayed there for, for quite a long time. Unfortunately, we're kind of, you know, into some lower prices now. but hopefully that starts growing demand again, you know, so it has demand for corn. You know, corn demand's really been very solid. so, yeah, I mean, from a global standpoint, we're going to continue to produce more corn and soybeans. The question is, can we continue to grow demand?

[Yeager] And this is tied back to earlier discussion. David's question is what's going to be the long term impact of tariffs. Because that to me, and that ties into a little bit about what you're saying. And are we going to have to now fight these two things. Demand, where is it coming from? And higher tariffs?

[Seifried] Well, first of all the question is are tariffs going to be on longer term. Right. I mean.

[Yeager] Even if they're not, they’re still impacts.

[Seifried] Every day it's on or off. Yes. So what I'm going to say is that, and we'll, we'll, we'll talk soybeans in particular because that's what we really care about because of China. Right. So if we have, just unrealistic, crazy high tariffs on China and more importantly, they have crazy high tariffs on us, they're going to do everything they can to buy from Brazil now, Brazil, the amount of soybeans that they grow China can I guess if they cut their demand a little bit almost almost exclusively buy from Brazil. Not quite. but the thing about that is that they're those Brazilian soybeans historically have not just gone to China. Right. There's other there's other countries that buy from Brazil. So if China is buying pretty much exclusively South America, then that, the demand from other countries has to get displaced. Demand is displacement back to us. So that global balance sheet probably looks the same as far as supply and demand. Yes, we do lose market share with China. We probably do lose some overall market share. but at least some of that demand comes back to us in the form of other countries where tariffs really, really make a difference is how that global economy works. Because if you have a bigger downdraft in, if you have a break in the global economy and people start consuming less and that's less demand for raw commodities, soybeans, corn, things like that, for energies, for, for for feedstock. Well, that's where it will really affect. So if tariffs really do put a lot of pressure on the global economy, domestic economy, which I think they really would if they stay on for longer periods of time. that's where the big effect comes from, because then you have demand destruction on a global scale. And if you don't have that lower supply, that demand destruction, well, usually means lower prices.

[Yeager] Boy, I really know how to take the air out of a room, don't I?

[Seifried] You're asking questions. Oh, yeah.

[Yeager] Let's not be all doom and gloom as we finish here, Ted. a couple of things. give me. Give those who are here. Give me some optimism for the rest of the year.

[Seifried] Well, first of all, once we're done with this year, I've got the bar tab for the rest of the evening.

[Yeager] Well.

[Seifried] So there's that.

[Yeager] That is a friend of Iowa PBS right there. That is a friend of the room. Ted might be the best thing we hear on, You know what I mean?

[Seifried] Like you said, you know, I say this is a growing demand thing that over time, just domestically and globally is going to be good. It just takes time for that to happen. It's not quick and easy. And then, you know, the other thing is that, if we get into a period of lower prices for a while, which I'm hoping we don't, but, you know, hopefully that will bring input costs down as well. But more importantly, that would have a bigger effect on South America than it would on us. So maybe they stop their expansion as aggressively as they have been. and it really all balances itself out. And we just we're going to go through the good times. We're going to go through the bad times. Right. It's not going to all of a sudden just be bad for everyone. Right? So even if things do get a little bit lean for a little while, that's just setting us up for the good times to come.

[Yeager] All right. Good times. Was the first time on our show, on this show a good time? What was that story?

[Seifried] Wow. So I started in year, season 40, I think. Okay. Tail end of 39. Okay. And the first one I did was with Mark, and then the second one was with Mike, and, man, I mean, having to. Yeah, that was both really great experiences. I was extremely nervous, as you know, I think anybody would be in such a great show with a long history. And, you know, I tell anybody that asks me, you know, like, what's my favorite thing to do? And I always say Market to Market because the level of production is so high. I mean, you guys’ studio, is the only place that anybody's ever put makeup on me.

[Yeager] Which he still looks that way.

[Seifried] That's my least favorite part, is the makeup, but it makes it feel so real and important. And it really reminds you like, wow, okay, this is a big deal, right? And, it just feels like a big deal. I mean, it's a very, very well-produced show and it's, it's great. It's I really, Yeah, I was super nervous, but, I mean, just it's just a very rewarding and wonderful experience.

[Yeager] We appreciate you coming out because it is a drive to do, to see the show. And I know you do a lot of other segments. When I, when Ted and I have conversations ahead of his appearance, I'll tell him a time that we're wanting him and then he'll say, well, I got to do a radio here at this time, I hope I'm near an exit or somewhere that has a good cell service, and then we'll see what time I get there. Yeah. So, we're super appreciative.

[Seifried] You tell me what time you want me there. Yeah. What time? I'll be there. Yeah. Well, so I mean, I do, I do, I record a radio show is about 25 minutes that gets played throughout the weekend that I do on Fridays. And we just happen to shoot the show without it. It's just fun.

[Yeager] We work hard on what we do. And there's been times, we've had them. I think my favorite one is when somebody parked, they couldn't find your car.

[Seifried] Yeah.

[Yeager] Somewhere where you were. You were at a hotel. You were actually in town, and you went to have them go pull your car. But they couldn't find it.

[Seifried] They could not find the car.

[Yeager] Which for you as a car guy had to put a bolt in you.

[Seifried] Oh, I know I was not happy. Yeah, you guys lost my 611 horsepower BMW? You're going to fight. I got to go to the show first, then I'll come back and kick your butts. So they got me to the hotel shuttle and drove me to Market to Market. And they found my car.

[Seifried] In the meantime, the valet drove over. 

[Yeager] Oh, I guess I forgot that's how that story ended. Okay. You mentioned Mark Pearson. You did the show with Mark. You've done it with Mike, Delaney, and now me. Yeah, obviously those other three are your favorite. But why do you keep coming back to do the show?

[Seifried] Oh. That's funny. Oh, and, Brooke.

[Yeager] Oh, yeah. Brooke.

[Seifried] A few times with Brooke, she’s great.

[Yeager] Why? I mean, I mean you don't have to do this.

[Seifried] Like, you know.

[Yeager] On we all know that.

[Seifried] No,

[Yeager] No no no no, no, I'm not looking for that. No, but what?

[Seifried] I'm I'm you've really, you've really done very, very, very well with it. I mean, you ask really great questions.

[Yeager] Now, do I have to pay the bar bill? Did I realize you went too far? Okay, okay. Oh, wait.

[Seifried] No, I think you've done a really, really good job stepping into the role. I really look forward to our conversations. We have a nice little kind of back and forth banter. I'm assuming you do that with everybody, but I, I, I think we got a special.

[Yeager] We do, we do. And I thank you and it's fun to do. I don't want to ask the same questions that you probably get. I like to think of things I always say. I think of things like if my father sitting out there and he'd be the one yelling in the back of the room, that's bull, Ted. This is what you should ask. And I'm sure there's a couple people here who said, I've asked some questions today. Yeah, but I think it's important to have information and what the show is trying to do. Those of you out of Chicago, those out of Florida, those out of Iowa, Wisconsin, everybody has a different perspective. And you going out into the field, I think always gives us. And in your other appearances, I always think, help us out. There are people here who watch you on those other shows. So they are and they came because they wanted to see you. So Ted, you've always been good to us. Appreciate that. You've also helped us with our fundraising before you like you like the pledge time.

[Seifried] I do, I do it is. But ad-libbing on the big stage, that's fun. It's like it's a little show off the the side and there were, the gifts. 

[Yeager] Speaking of the goodies. Did you notice what he didn't bring?

[Seifried] Yeah.

[Yeager] And you were probably wondering why I hadn't asked about that. Yeah, the corn hat, for those who don't know, started a few years ago. Ted, you put it on. We normally just do it on market plus.

[Seifried] Yeah, I which I don't I don't know, by the way, the last time we did it, you made me take it off. I didn't want to take. You're like, give me the hat. I'm like, no.

[Yeager] Okay, this is where I decide how much I want to throw my boss under the bus or not [Seifried] mid-sentence too. You're messing up my train of thought. I've got a corn hat on all this. Well, things are going smoothly and aerodynamically. It was in the cold studio

[Yeager] , but the corn hat is like you give me that. I wanted it back for me. I think it looks better now. It does not look better on me. Looks better on you, I think.

[Seifried] What's it? When I'm ahead? I don't think it will come off.

[Yeager] Probably not the glue on my hair is stuck. Do you feel bullish about corn for the rest of ‘25?

[Seifried] I want to be, You know, look, corn's got a lot of good things coming from the demand side. And if we do get any weather issues in a climate where we're not worried about the world economy ending, I think corn's got some really good upside potential this year. So I want to wear the corn hat next time. Okay. Come. But, you know, I always say, when everybody asks me, is everybody wearing the corn hat today or, you know, whatever. I mean, I say, you know, corn's got to do something to give me it's a celebratory corn hat. Yeah. Sometimes it's a sympathy corn. I don't think we're quite to that level yet, but I want, I want for the next time to wear it as a celebrated, a celebratory corn hat. And for future reference, you're not allowed to tell me to take it off. It's just on.

[Yeager] Oh, okay. Fair enough.

[Seifried] If it's on, it's on instead, I like it.

[Yeager] I'll remember that. But when you all of a sudden have to turn, I mean, you gotta remember that's early in the program. Do you really want the corn hat on when I'm asking, can feeders go any higher?

[Seifried] It is cold in that studio. Yeah, that is a problem for me. It's nice and warm and comforting. Thank you very much.

[Yeager] It is good. As are you, Ted Seifried. Everybody give him a big hand. Here. So again, this is the live MToM podcast, and we'd love to see as many of you who come to see us in Johnston, keep all the eye out on the Market Insider Newsletter for details on that. That will be at the end of August. It's not the same week as the State Fair, so you're going to have to make two trips to Des Moines. For that, we hope to have Ted. We will have Ted back on the TV show. I think we've booked our date already. Thank you so very much for coming. My name is Paul Yeager. Many of our people here, our crew, thank you to them, as well as, the Mississippi River Distilling Company. Thank them. And anybody else who supports the program. Thank you so very much and have a good time. Thanks, guys.

Contact: Paul.Yeager@iowapbs.org