Reporters’ Roundtable

Iowa Press | Episode

Dec 23, 2022 | 27 min

Iowa Press convenes a group of Iowa political reporters for a roundtable discussion about the latest political news, the biggest stories of 2022 and what's ahead in the 2023 legislative session.

Joining moderator Kay Henderson at the Iowa Press table are Erin Murphy, Des Moines bureau chief for The Gazette, Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for The Des Moines Register, and Clay Masters, lead political reporter and host for Iowa Public Radio.

Program support provided by: Associated General Contractors of Iowa, Iowa Bankers Association and FUELIowa.

[ RECORDED: December 16, 2022 ]

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Transcript

From caucus developments to
preparations at the State House

for the 2023
legislative session,

we gather a few familiar
political reporters for a year

end roundtable discussion
on this edition of Iowa Press.

Funding for Iowa Press
was provided by Friends,

the Iowa PBS Foundation,

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This is the Friday, December.

Here is Kay Henderson.

So what were the top
political stories

of the past year
and what's ahead in 2023?

We have three of Iowa's top
political reporters

here at the roundtable
to discuss those issues.

Erin Murphy is with the Cedar
Rapids Gazette.

Clay Masters is with Iowa
Public Radio,

and Brianne Pfannenstiel
is with the Des Moines Register.

Brianne, you've written a lot

about the Iowa
Democratic caucuses.

So what's going on for folks
who haven't been sort of

following this drama?

Well, we finally got the big
decision, right.

Democrats
gathered in Washington, D.C.

earlier this month

and they all met
in a conference room

and they decided Iowa's out.

South Carolina's in.

And this came after President

Joe Biden weighed in
and finally made his choices

known
where he would like to move

Iowa completely
out of the early window,

move up South Carolina,
have New Hampshire and Nevada

hold their primaries
on the same day,

followed by Michigan
and Georgia.

And so this is a big change.

This is a big move
to shake up the calendar,

to bring in
some more diverse voices

to replace Iowa,
which has been holding these

first in the nation
caucuses for 50 years.

This still needs to be ratified
by the full DNC in February

at their meeting.

But this is really kind of
the writing on the wall, right?

This is the decision
we've been waiting for.

Iowa is very likely no longer
going to be first.

Clay, was this a big surprise?

First off, no, it didn't feel
like a big surprise.

I remember on caucus night
all the morning

after the Iowa caucuses,

sitting in a coffeehouse
and an NPR was there.

I was being interviewed,

and one of the first questions
I got was,

what is this kind of do for the
future of the Iowa caucuses?

And my answer,
I think, at the time was like

it just adds
fuel to the fire. Right.

The Democratic caucuses have
been panned by a lot of critics

both across the country.

And there are people in Iowa

that have enjoyed
the Iowa Democratic caucuses,

but see that it's time for it
to move by the wayside.

And President
Joe Biden, in the letter

that came out the day
before that decision was made

and laid all these arguments out

that we've been hearing
for a long time.

Number one, Iowa
not as representative

of the rest of the country
when it comes to diversity.

Number two,
caucuses are a system

that doesn't allow
as much participation

that a primary election does.

And the number three has to do
with competition that in a

general election,
Iowa is not the purple state

that it once was.

And they want President Biden
as well as others

that are on that committee
that make those rules.

They want more competitive
states going early Aaron.

Yeah.

What was, if
anything, was a surprise to me.

It was how it unfolded
at the very end.

We were sitting here waiting for
weeks and weeks, months

maybe for the Democratic
National Committee.

The National Democratic Party's

Rules and Bylaws Committee

was taking this up
and discussing it,

and they were going to put

together a plan,
and we hadn't heard that.

And they punted it
until after the election.

And then while we're waiting
for that decision, President

Biden is the one who swooped
in ultimately and said, here,

let's do this.

That that just kind of
fascinated me about the process.

But yeah,
this was for all the reasons.

Clay Brianna,
I've already laid out.

The outcome was
not even remotely surprising.

Brianne Was Joe Biden's
recommendation surprising

giving given his experience
in the Iowa caucuses?

Well,
I think everybody was waiting

on the president to weigh
in. Right.

This is a big change.

And having the president
kind of lay out

what he wants to do helped
coalesce the party behind him.

But as far as which states
he selected,

I think
people were a little surprised.

You know, certainly he has
not fared well in Iowa in his

you know, three, three times
running in the caucuses.

But South Carolina

this last time, voters
there really are credited

with propelling him
into the White House.

So seeing them now
at the front of the line

makes a lot of sense,
particularly

if he runs again, as he's
indicated he is likely to do.

But I think, you know, more
surprising is adding a state

like Georgia,
which has historically

not been favorable for Democrats
into the mix and elevating

some of those other later
states.

Clay,

the Democratic
National Committee's

Rules and Bylaws Committee

has given this

new group of states
until January 1st to present,

I guess, a memo saying,
yes, we're going to do

the things you told us to do.

Georgia's Republican secretary
of state has already said

yes. So it's
a committee within a committee

making decisions to get back
to the full committee.

A lot of fun
to talk about on the radio,

but it is that you're seeing
this happen in Georgia where,

you know,

the Republican

National Committee
has made a decision

that they're going to stick
with the old traditional Iowa,

New Hampshire,
Nevada, South Carolina.

And the proposal

that the committee within
the committee has recommended

at the Democratic level
is starting in South Carolina,

then Nevada and New Hampshire
on the same day, followed by

Georgia, then Michigan. Did
I leave somebody out?

No. Nevada. I said Nevada. Yeah.

So you're having to have
all these rules come

before these state parties.

And the Georgia

secretary of state

is a Republican

and has said we're going
to be voting on the same day.

And so you start

having these different problems
that that come forward,

that some of the people
that wanted to keep Iowa

first were kind of warning
that this was going to be

a problem to work out.

And we're seeing that
come to fruition now.

But the time is ticking again.

And New Hampshire
also has very politely

said, no, thank you.

As politely as New Hampshire
talks about.

Being moved,
I think they said something like

the DNC
didn't give New Hampshire

to the first in the nation
primary.

They're not going to take it
away. Yeah.

I think it's
been really interesting

to see the states kind
of grapple with these decisions.

Right.

Because, you know, the DNC has
been a little bit dismissive.

I think, of what it takes
for these states to move around

and to address their laws
and to address the intricate

intricacies of state
election laws.

Iowa has a law

that says it needs to hold a
caucus before any primary state.

New Hampshire has a law,

and so these states
are now trying to figure out

how, you know,
how do we follow our law?

How do we stick with the DNC
and what decisions do we make?

So it's
going to be really interesting.

You know,

you talked about the new year,
how Iowa Democrats

come to terms with this
and what what they do,

whether they follow
the DNC is prescription

or they try
and do something else.

And that's a good point.

And I apologize
to the source of this,

who I was reading who said this

because
that name is escaping me.

But I was reading about
someone's

kind of view of the evolution

of the DNC,
its role in the calendar.

For the longest time,
the DNC really managed

the calendar to where now it's

essentially trying
to set the calendar, and that's

newish.

And, you know, we're having

the mess that we have
now because of it.

I'm not going to ask
for a show of hands,

but I'm just wondering
if there's a defibrillator here

that might revive
the Iowa caucuses

because of these hurdles
that we've discussed.

Does anyone think that

the Iowa caucuses
have a slim chance of surviving

on the Democratic side,
being first?

Well,

I guess it depends a little bit
how you're defining it, right?

We can play some word games
here.

The Iowa Democratic Party
chairman, Ross Wilburn, has said

that they're going to hold a

first in the nation
caucus regardless. Right.

They can do that. That's fine.

It just won't be recognized
by the DNC.

And the DNC can put
in a lot of sanctions to say

anyone who comes to campaign
there is going to get dinged.

Maybe they don't
get to participate in debates.

Maybe they're going to have
all of these other other knocks

that are going to dissuade
people from campaigning here.

And so Iowans can meet
they can cast their preferences

just like they always do.

But what makes the caucuses
right is the presence

of all of these candidates,

the participation
in the campaigning

and the discussion
that happened before then,

and that clearly wouldn't happen
under this new plan.

Let's shift to the Republican
Party's caucuses.

The Republican National

Committee voted this summer
to have the Iowa caucuses first.

Erin,
what do you see on the horizon?

Well, what we same thing
we already see

in the rearview mirror, which
is candidates coming to Iowa.

Now, interestingly, that

those journeys of their travel
has waned here

ever since former President
Trump announced his candidacy.

So we haven't seen
as much activity.

Maybe it's the weather
we're having here in Iowa

this December
that's slowing things up.

We'll see.

As we turn into the new year,

I expect that
we'll still see candidates.

But it has been interesting
that ever since former

President Trump's announcement
and we've been saying for

ever that
that was the big question mark.

And once he decided

whether he was going to get into
this field, would tell us

what we need
to know about the rest.

And to this point,
it has stunted the Iowa

Republican cavalcade.

Now, for that, continue
and we'll see.

Clay, I'm struck
by the fact that

not especially
that the Iowa Republican Party

State Central Committee,
that's the governing board

for the party, has said
we're going to be neutral,

which they've done in past
caucuses that I covered, former

governor Terry Branstad in

November at an event and he said
he was not going to endorse

Donald Trump.

And he said this
less than 24 hours

after Trump had announced
he was running again.

FRANCIS
It is just too early to endorse.

What do you make of this,
this sort of holding back?

We're going to be neutral.
We're not going to get involved.

Well, first off,

I think a lot of that has to do
with the scrutiny that's

come on the Democratic side
with the Iowa caucuses.

The Republicans,
you know, for years

and decades, the Iowa Democrats
and Iowa Republicans

have been able to come together
and support

this first in the nation thing
that they've had

and you're starting
to see the strings get pulled

on the Democratic side
of the yarn ball.

That's kind of coming unwound.

And so if they want to keep
the Iowa caucuses in 2028,

I think they need to present
as much of a level playing

field as they can.

So that's
why you'll see candidates.

Ashley Hinson,
the congresswoman from Cedar

Rapids,

was on a couple of weeks ago
and was saying she plans to

endorse at some point.
I think she even said so.

We might see
some of that later on.

But another thing,
too, is to Erin's point,

I think part of the reason
we're not seeing a whole lot

of presidential
hopefuls in the state

has to do with just how early
the former president

actually announced he's
going to run for president.

I mean, I remember we had a big
cattle call of Republican

presidential hopefuls
here in early 2015 in the state.

But none of

none of those people
had declared

that they were
actually running at that point.

So I think that everybody's
just kind of waiting to see,

as we're looking at poll numbers
for the former president

and seeing that Ron de Santos,
the governor of Florida,

seems to be doing

a little better than than
the former president in polls.

I think people are just
still kind of

getting an idea of of what
the playing field looks like.

And it's just kind of a weird
year, right?

We've got a former president

running again
who is not an incumbent.

We've got Joe Biden
who says he intends to run,

but hasn't formally announced

or, you know,
kind of made that official.

And so it's just an
odd year where we've got to,

you know, an

incumbent and a pseudo incumbent
kind of running again,

trying to figure out
what that looks like.

And so it's
definitely slowed down.

But I would think, you know,
everyone is kind of waiting

for the first person

to really jump in the pool right
beyond Donald Trump

and to kind of see
what happens next.

And there's I think there's two
most likely names there.

And one of them already said,
which is Ron DeSantis,

and the other is Mike Pence, who

has been to Iowa,
a number of times already

and has been willing
to speak about his differences

between him
and the former president.

So those are the two
in particular

that I'm watching to see
when their next trip to Iowa is.

And I makes a great point
that I had making a note here.

It feels like we
have just completely obliterated

the definition of the word
unprecedented

in the last six
or seven years in politics.

But here we are again.
It really is to be this point.

I mean, we have a

former president running again,
but not as an incumbent.

I don't know when the last time
that happened, if it

if it ever has, and an.

Incumbent president
who everybody's saying,

is he actually going to run?

Right. Right. Right.

So so everybody else is figuring
this out, too.

That's why
we don't have any answers yet.

BRAND One last point

about the Iowa caucuses,
and then we'll move on to

the legislature.

But, you know,

when you look at the Iowa
caucuses,

three strikes and you're out,
if you will,

the first strike was actually
the 2012 Iowa caucuses

when they declared Mitt Romney
the winner on election night,

that caucus night.

And then a few days later, Rick

Santorum won a big wound up
being declared the winner.

I mean, what's the pressure
on the Iowa Republican Party

to manage and run caucuses
to set them up for 2028?

I think the pressure is
enormous, right?

They've had problems in the past

with getting the results
right on on caucus night

and with doing that accurately

and efficiently,
just like the Democrats have.

And now.

Now, as Clay says,

the strings are being pulled,
the ball is coming apart.

You know,

I think there's enormous
pressure on Republicans to prove

that they can still do it
and they're there.

They have the benefit

of a much simpler process,
being much more straightforward.

The current chair

of the Republican
National Committee,

Ronna
McDaniel, is a big fan of Iowa

and has said she's committed

to keeping

Iowa Republicans first,

but she's not going to be
in office forever.

They have to continue proving

with every iteration that
they deserve to keep doing this.

Okay, viewers,
get your calendars out.

January 9th is a big day, Aaron.

It's the start of the 2023
Iowa legislative session.

What are the hints about
the agenda that Republicans

who are in charge
are going to pursue?

Yeah,
I think there's a few issues.

Obviously, there will be a lot
that will come up,

but there's a few
that really stand out

that we can pretty safely
expect.

We'll hear a bunch about.

We're going to hear about taxes
again.

I was budget is in good shape.

There's a billion plus dollar
surplus

Republicans
are going to try and cut taxes.

They've already taken
a huge crack at income taxes.

It sounds like property taxes

is going to be on the table
this time.

Government is going to come back
with her school choice bill.

Vouchers, scholarships, whatever
your preferred shorthand is.

We're going to hear a lot
about that.

It'll be interesting
to see with a new legislature,

a slightly
growing Republican majority

and some new members
within that majority as well,

whether the votes are there
for that this time.

And then the other thing,

it will just be kind of
interesting to watch

and this has some outside
outside influences, too, is

is the abortion issue.

And what I mean
by outside influences is that

there's a big bill, a case
before the Iowa Supreme Court

that is going to get a hearing
and a ruling at some point

that kind of is, you know,
hovering over all this.

So the question is, will
we still just see legislation

on that front now
or will Republicans

be fine to sit back and wait
for that court ruling to act?

Clay, what about pipelines?

Do you think the legislature
will do anything?

They sort of started
and then put it on hold.

Last time in 2021,
you were seeing this interesting

coalition of landowners, farmers

that were concerned
about eminent domain

and these carbon sequestration
pipeline companies

with these proposed pipelines
being able

to just come in and take over
to build these pipelines.

And this coalition was built
between them

and then environmentalists
who were saying

that carbon sequestration
pipelines,

that's not going to solve
the climate crisis.

So you saw that coalition
coming together.

There was some work done on it
ahead of the midterm.

I kind of got
punted a little bit.

So it's going to be interesting
to see

because
we've had all these counties

that have

put forth these ordinances,
especially in western Iowa.

The counties are not ringing
a bell in my head.

One of. Them is Shelby.
One of them is Shelby County.

And then you've seen
more recently in Lynn County,

the board of supervisors

there has been talking about

setbacks that they would have
from, you know, places,

dwellings where people come
together, homes,

and they had to, like,
put pause on this

so that they could sort it out.

Because you were seeing
the companies

didn't like the regulations
that were being proposed

and you were seeing
the anti-pipeline

activists coming out
that are opposed to it.

So you're kind of seeing
some different splits within

not along party lines
about how people are coming down

on these concerns.

So I'll be watching to see

if there's anything
coming forward on that for sure.

One shared thread
between a couple of those issues

get comfortable
with the phrase local control

if you're following your
legislative news this session,

because to Clay's point,

the pipeline stuff right now
is being set at the local level.

Do state lawmakers come in
and override some of those?

And the property

tax issue that I talked about,
that's not a state tax.

That's that's a tax

set at the local level
by by cities and counties.

And so anything
the state decides to do

will have a very direct impact,
will essentially

be telling local governments
what they can and can't do.

So you're going to hear a lot

about that tug of war between
local and state government.

Brian, you and I were recently
on a conference call with U.S.

Senator Joni Ernst, and a vote
that she recently took

has created some controversy
within Republican parties

at the county level.
That's right.

Joni Ernst was one of 12
Republican senators

who helped
get the Respect for Marriage Act

across the finish line.

Joe Biden signed that into law
and that protects gay marriages.

It protects
interracial marriages.

But it's getting

a lot of pushback,

obviously, from people

who still oppose gay marriage
as a principle

and also those who feel that it
infringes on religious liberty.

So some of Iowa's
more conservative counties,

we've seen pushback there.

They've they've met as their,
you know, kind of county party

apparatus and taken votes

to effectively censure
Joni Ernst and also state

excuse me, U.S.

Representative Marion

Miller-Meeks
over that same vote.

And so it's interesting
to see a push and pull there,

but we asked Senator
Ernst about this

and about that pushback, and she
said, I stand by my vote.

I think this
this protects religious liberty.

And I think it helps,

you know, Iowans
who need the certainty and

and the general consensus,

even among Republicans,
she said, is that

this is the direction
we're heading.

And I think it's an important
vote to take.

And among 99 county Republican

parties,
we're talking a handful.

I mean, I wouldn't use
all the fingers on my hands

if I counted how many counties
have done this. Yeah.

And to that point
is interesting, Congresswoman.

Actually, Hinson from
eastern Iowa has not thus far

faced a similar blowback from

the county Republican parties
and in her district.

I don't know,

maybe samples
they haven't met yet and haven't

had a chance to do that,
but as of now,

so it's just kind of interesting
to see, especially

with Congresswoman Miller-Meeks,
who's also in eastern Iowa,

the reaction different
between her district

and Congresswoman Hanson's.

As we near the end of this year,
let's look back to November

and what happened
during the election.

We really had

as a group on this program,
had a chance to discuss that.

Clay, the only candidate
on the Democratic ticket

who won a statewide
race was Rob Sand.

What does that tell us
about the Iowa electorate?

And it was that was Rob Sanders,
the state auditor of Iowa.

And we didn't even know
right away that he won.

I mean, it was

it was a long, drawn out process
to see if any Democrats

survived at the statewide level.

Tom Miller,
the attorney general,

went by the wayside,
losing the Brandenburg.

Longest serving
attorney general in the country.

That's right.

Michael Fitzgerald, the state

treasurer, lost his reelection
bid to Robby Smith.

I don't know.

Oh, you had some.

Say and he did well.

And he's also the longest
serving

treasurer in the country.
That's right.

Chuck Grassley
won by a good margin and

Kim Reynolds
won by an even healthier margin.

And the state legislature,

I mean,

if you were a Republican in Iowa

and you were seeing the national

narrative of Republicans
didn't do as well as we thought,

the Republicans would think.

You're watching the wrong show.

Yeah. So we were watching
for the red wave.

So if you think about
what the wave

looks like in a sporting event,

when the crowd of cheers stands
up, what actually happened is

they tried to do the wave
and only Iowa stood up.

It's like.

Florida did. And Florida.
Yeah, yeah.

There was just
a couple of people out there

and I was one of them.

So, yeah, so the the Republicans
did exceptionally well here

bucking the

trend that we saw in
other states across the country.

Clay mentioned that Rob Sand won
by something

like 2100 votes statewide.

I think when you look
at the congressional races,

you had Ashley Hinson
won by something like 18 points.

Marinette Miller-Meeks
won by far

more than six votes this time.

But if you look at the accident
non-res,

that was also a very slim
margin.

That was very close.

And, you know,

I think we've talked
on this program

a lot about that

race and, you know, feeling
like it could go either way.

And so you look at that one
being being as narrow as it was,

even with this red wave in Iowa.

And I think it's really telling.

And so it'll be interesting

to see over the next two years
what happens.

But, you know, you look back
at how that campaign went

and perhaps there were
some unforced errors

with within the actions
campaign.

You know,
she took a trip to France

and and caught some blowback
from Republican messaging

on that, not being present
to take a key vote.

You know, all of the issues
with her stock trading became

an issue that that, you know,
Iowans saw on mailers and on TV.

And so that was a very close
race that, you know, obviously

went in Doug Nunn's favor.

And if you look at the numbers
in Polk County, which is

the largest county in Iowa
and obviously the largest county

in that district, she won it
by a far larger margin in 2018

when she was first elected
than she did this time around.

So turnout was down
and a midterm for her in Iowa's