[PAUL YEAGER] Coming up on Market to Market -- beef, diesel and now fertilizer. More federal aid coming to rural America, bringing big ideas to the heart of the grain belt to help feed the world. Pressing the pick of the crop into a profitable bottom line. And commodity market analysis with Chris Robinson next. 

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[ANNOUNCER] I wouldn't be here without my customers.

Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers. They're very dear to our hearts.

It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

♪♪

[ANNOUNCER] Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Philip Lietz of Alta, Iowa, in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programing.

[ANNOUNCER] Market to Market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. 

[ANNOUNCER] This is the Friday, October 16th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[YEAGER] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. The president is spending many of the remaining days before the November third midterms, crisscrossing the country for Republican candidates. His trip to Iowa Thursday night laid out some comments aimed at farmers. Earlier in the day, his administration announced new money to boost domestic fertilizer production. It's the latest in a string of aid packages for agriculture over the past year. David Miller reports. 

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[NARRATOR] This week, President Donald Trump was making the rounds of predominantly Republican states to tell voters about his policies. 

[PRESIDENT TRUMP] Thank you very much. 

[NARRATOR] Over the past ten months, rural America has been given access to more than $70 billion in relief funds. Critics blame the trade war and the war with Iran for making the aid necessary. In February, 560,000 row and specialty crop farmers received a portion of $12 billion in bridge payments. The money was released to offset what the administration labeled as unfair market disruptions. In the same month, nearly $2 billion was sent to cattle producers via the Emergency Livestock Relief Program for losses due to drought, wildfires and floods. This September, $10 billion was slated to be sent via the Office of Rural Health Transformation to expand the medical workforce and upgrade hospital technology.

[PRESIDENT TRUMP] And on Monday, I announced the Harvest Fuel Relief Program, providing our farmers with $8 billion to offset diesel costs in the harvest season, including an estimated $400 million is coming to Iowa farmers. 

[NARRATOR] Announced on Monday. The $8 billion will be a one-time payment for farmers to offset soaring diesel and fertilizer costs. 

[BEN JOHNSTON] I think that the government is looking at the impact of these high fuel prices and, quite frankly, the impact of some of the tariff policy that we've put in place and seeing the really damaging effects that these policies have had on the local farming communities, and are trying to find a way to provide some support there. 

[NARRATOR] At the end of the week. Another plan to increase the availability of the domestic fertilizer supply was released. The administration will inject $1.34 billion into eight fertilizer manufacturing projects through USDA's Fertilizer Investment and Expansion for long term domestic supply or fields. Program. For Market to Market, I'm David Miller. 

[YEAGER] Norman Borlaug is credited as the father of the Green Revolution, and with saving more than a billion lives. The Iowa native created the World Food Prize in 1986, and it has been awarded in Des Moines since 1990. The tradition has continued since his death back in 2009. Now, this year marks the prize's 40th anniversary. Alongside the awards ceremony, the week brings a series of meetings, seminars and panel discussions on ending world hunger and the challenges facing those trying to get the job done. Laurel Bower has some of the highlights. 

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[NARRATOR] For decades, the World Food Prize has served as the Nobel Prize for Food and Agriculture. This year's 40th anniversary drew a star studded lineup, including Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai, heads of state and agricultural policy leaders. The theme was Before Hunger Wins to tackle global food Insecurity. The 2026 World Food Prize Laureate is Huub Lelieveld from the Netherlands. He has spent 60 years advancing global food safety standards by working to eliminate trade barriers and prevent foodborne illnesses across 113 countries. Leliveld sat down with 2009 laureate Gebisa Ejeta. 

[HUUB LELIEVELD] I think food safety should be is so essential because everybody eats every day. So, it should be. The toddlers should already learn that you have to be careful with what you eat and how you prepare it. And then when, if you through the years and education. Every class to get a couple of hours. Education about food safety. I think the world would be better and you would not have to. So many diseases. 

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[NARRATOR] For Market to Market, I'm Laurel Bower. 

[YEAGER] October brings hayrack rides, pumpkin patches and apple picking. There are almost 7500 commercial Apple producers in the U.S. The best fruit is what we see on display for sale. Other pickings. They get used for pies, crisps and juices. The global cider industry is having a renaissance, with more than $5 billion of U.S. Business in 2020. For one, Orchard in Minnesota is taking the best fruit to help cash in on this cider trend and add another leg to stand on for their business. Peter Tubbs has this week's cover story. 

[NARRATOR] A harvest crew picks apples on a foggy September morning at Keepsake Cidery in Dundas, Minnesota. The orchard is unique for the region for both the heirloom varieties of apples, and that they will be crushed and used for cider rather than be eaten. 

[NATE WATTERS] But then, why I picked apples? I just love the fruit. I've always loved the fruit. I grew up in a place that loved the fruit. 

[NARRATOR] The seven acres of orchard at keepsake are relatively young, but host some heirloom apples that trace their lineage to colonial America and Europe. Varieties like Ashmead's kernel, chisel jersey and Golden Russet grow next to output of America's land grant. Universities like liberty, sweet 16, Harrelson and Keepsake. These apples are prized for their high tannins and sharp flavors, which add complexity to the ciders. Waters bottles with his wife, Tracy Junkman. Compared to annual crops, the organic orchard was an easier entry into agriculture for waters. Some are spent working on vegetable farms. Confirmed his preference for orchards. 

[NATE WATTERS] For me, in a world of relationship, I enjoy this long relationship that I have with that perennial crop. It almost feels like when I was and I farmed animals for a long time. It almost feels like with animals you're always like a new a new relationship, you know, a new year, a new season. 

[NARRATOR] The first of the 5000 trees were planted in 2015, but growing apples outside of the arid Pacific Northwest is a challenge. 

[NATE WATTERS] I believe our apples taste better. I believe our apples are better. I think that's the reason why you want to grow apples in the Midwest and the upper Midwest is that we grow really, really good fruit. The challenge is largely fungal issues, some pest issues, but mostly fungal issues that are require more attention. We're okay with our fruit not being perfect looking, and we have other ideas on what to do with those. 

[NARRATOR] Keepsake is operated as three separate businesses the orchard, the Cidery, and the tasting room and event space. 

[NATE WATTERS] The cider industry, since we began, has gone through some pretty radical changes. You have to remember, 20 years ago there was very few cideries in the United States. Cider had almost died. And their cider, like what we're trying to do, which is more traditional. You're going to be long as you're using particular type of apples where spontaneously fermented. No sulfites added. We're doing pet nets and charmat methods. We're doing champagne styles. So, it was great that we that we at that point, we could just start talking about what we're doing and not just try to get people into what cider is. And then you've had all these trends, ups and downs and ups and downs. 

[NARRATOR] Tracy Youngman runs the retail side of the Cidery. In addition to her off farm job introducing customers to their cider varieties is a key part of her work. 

[TRACY JONKMAN] It really takes a little bit of education and then, frankly, just tasting the cider like people when they have an idea of what they're coming in with when it comes to cider, are typically like thrown for a loop when they when they drink our beverage, you know, there's no added sweeteners, no added flavors, no added colors. 

[NARRATOR] On a cool day in November, a harvest crew is rushing to bring in the last of the apple crop before the Minnesota winter sets in the 60 varieties grown at keepsake ripen at different rates, so harvest can stretch from mid-August through the first hard freeze. Processing takes place through the fall and into the winter months. Apples are washed, then ground into a mash. The mash is wrapped in fabric. And then crushed using a custom built press that generates 3,000 pounds per square inch. The juice from each variety is stored separately, then blended with other varieties depending on the goals of each cider. 

[NATE WATTERS] I have all these characters that I can pick from as I try to tell you a story for that, eventually that I pour into your glass, that hopefully you find fun and relevant and interesting. But if I only had two apples, it's going to be the same story every time, right? So, it's fun to have all these characters behind me. 

[NARRATOR] The ciders, that keepsake spend 12 to 18 months fermenting, using the natural yeast that were present during the crush. This traditional process produces ciders with complex and authentic flavors. The scale of the orchard and cidery is large enough to be profitable, but small enough to maintain a relationship with both the apple trees and the cider. Customers. Direct sales to consumers are the most profitable and often require spaces for sampling of the different types. The event spaces form the third arm of the orchards business. The event spaces are open around 100 days of the year. 

[TRACY JONKMAN] We are a farm based operation. We really believe in focus on the apple and in processes that really respect the land. The water below us, the product itself. So, we use a variety of apples, but really the apple makes a difference in our cider. You know, a lot of what we talk about is our natural processes. We're really unique in the cider making world. Natural cider that spontaneously fermented with no additions is a rare thing. Even nationally. 

[NATE WATTERS] I believe that being a small farm and trying to farm and be economically, emotionally and ecologically sustainable, we need to find ways to connect directly to our market. 

[NARRATOR] For Market to Market. I'm Peter Tubbs. 

[ANNOUNCER] Next, the Market to Market report. 

[YEAGER] As harvest hits the halfway point, the pressure is on keeping the Wheat and Corn market lower. For the trading week ending October 23rd. The nearby wheat contract fell $0.36. December corn. Well, it lost $0.18. The funds appear to have finished their sell off, at least the big time in the soy complex. The November soybean contract fell a nickel and December meal declined by $11 per ton. December cotton added $0.20 per hundredweight. November class three milk futures gained $0.52. The livestock complex was mixed. December cattle increased by two. 78. January feeders put on 707 and the December lean hog contract lost $1.35. In the currency markets, U.S. Dollar Index fell two ticks. December. Crude oil expanded $1.56 per barrel. Comex gold sold off $1.73 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was off by more than one point to settle at seven 5020. Here now to lend us his insight on these and other trends as regular market analyst Chris Robinson. Hello, sir. 

[CHRIS ROBINSON] Hello, Paul. 

[YEAGER] This wheat market has been a one topic dominated market for quite some time. Is it all about the potential for peace, or at least the US entering trilateral negotiations, which kind of sent this wheat market lower? 

[ROBINSON] Well, it has been the driver all year. You have to remember, we had a tremendous rally. We started off the year at 565 50. Soft red wheat, and we made it all the way up to, you know, 750. Tremendous rally. So, we did. We went from six year lows to 2 or 3 year highs. So, it's been a two sided story. It gave us these great prices. But yeah, when the headlines turn, you know, we just dropped $1.60 off the high. And that's the problem with these markets. They're so volatile. And we could come back next week. And if the if the headlines change, we'll be right back at it again. And you go to bed. Take a look at a daily chart of wheat. We've had multiple 2530 cent ranges. I mean, that's very, very difficult to not only trade. I don't care if you're a bull or a bear, but for a producer it's very, very difficult because you're afraid every time you make a decision. And it's been a tough marketing year. 

[YEAGER] Well, we'll get into that with corn here in a minute, because there's a lot of second guessing that people want to get your take on of what they've been up to. But for wheat, let's discuss acreage chatter, because is there the thought that we are going to plant more wheat in the US also contributing to this price action?

[ROBINSON] I think it's going to depends on what happens with South America as well. But right now, producers are going to make the decision. You know, lots of times I think it's the last minute decision, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit more acres planted than we did in the past couple of years. Remember the last two years we had record low acres planted a week because people look at the price. Why would you want to plant, you know, 550 wheat? So, I think if we can hold this six, six, 50 level guys will do the math. You know, there's an expression they call wheat poverty grass. I mean, because it can be very, very difficult proposition. But the one thing I'll say is this somebody is going to plant wheat. They always do. And I think that if the situation in it's been four and a half years now, we've been dealing with what's going on in that part of the world. I don't see that ending anytime soon. If it did, I think we could get back to Trading Fundamentals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see if the prices are there. I mean, even today, we're still in a lot better shape than we were when we started the year. So, I think, you know, people will talk to their bankers and next year and say what prices work. If prices work, farmers will plant it. 

[YEAGER] For a topic that has now three weeks of legs. It is our question that we bring in from the audience, and it is Jake in North Dakota wants to know if the USDA is right on their corn yield. Is there still enough demand to get us back to those early September highs? 

[ROBINSON] We had amazing demand all year. That's first of all. And now we started to see demand slow down a little bit in the past six weeks. So that's a little bit disconcerting. There's no planning issue right now with South America yet. I know this is it's going to be El Nino, super El Nino normal El Nino I don't know. But those problems don't kick in until later in the growing season. From what I understand. So right now, there's no weather story. So, I would say this if something does change, it's probably not going to change until the January report, where we find out once and for all who's right and who's wrong on the yields when it's all in the bin. And then if the market's right, if the USDA was wrong, the market will correct. Absolutely. Positively will. So that's a huge thing. So, can we get there? Anything's possible. I would look at it this way. We rallied from 425 to 549. I don't know if we're going to get back to 549 again. I think we'd be very fortunate if we got half way back. But for now, at least, it feels like we're trying to put it on the floor here for corn. But I think you need a weather issue. And you also need I think you need to see demand step, step up demand was really, really strong this year. So, I think people are all kind of holding their breath to see what happens in South America right now. So, is it possible? Yeah, absolutely possible. But things are going to have to fall in line to have it happen. 

[YEAGER] Well, we'll talk harvest pressure now if we could, because last week, or at least Monday's figure said 44%, which we know is a couple of days old and it was a lot of corn came out. So, is the harvest pressure done being applied to this corn market? What's the sign that if that's the case? 

[ROBINSON] Well, I was just checking in some stuff before we came on to talk. And the feeling is that the American farmer right now, if you talked to all the analysts out there and this isn't this isn't in my purview, there's other people that do this. The farmers, about 40% sold. So that's going to be the question here. What's going to happen between now and the time? It's actually in the bin as far as the actual sales. So far, we haven't had any weather issue. Harvest has been going along pretty, pretty well. It's a little bit behind schedule, but nothing drastic. So long story short, I would say that I would say that the bulk of harvest pressure is now over. Now we're going to probably, you know, especially now between now and Thanksgiving, probably be a little bit more. I want to go. 

[YEAGER] I'm going to go back to your now to January WASDE comment. What should a farmer be doing in that time period with corn specifically? 

[ROBINSON] Well, there's no time machine. There's no Marty McFly. We can't jump in the Delorean and go back and say what it could have, should have. So first of all, stop beating yourself up. This is you've got a long marketing year. I've been doing this for the better part of three decades, and there will always be vicious market moves. Hopefully, now that we've oversold, we'll get a rally. So, if you if you do get a rally, if by the grace of the markets, we get a short covering rally, use it to make sales that you wish you had made earlier. Right? Also, I think, you know, if you're going to store it absolutely, positively, you have to keep a floor under it because what do we know? The only thing we know for sure is we've traded for 25 this year. And 550 right halfway back. It's about 470. So, anything around 470, you know, it's, it's, it's kind of like, you know, six on one half dozen of the other. That would be a big area to watch if I'm a farmer or producer. But if you're going to store it, you know, people always say, well, I want to capture the carry. If you're going to store it, you've got to set the hedge, just putting it in the bin and not hedging it. You're not capturing the carry. You've got to set a hedge. 

[YEAGER] All right. In soybeans you mentioned El Nino. We haven't said China. We haven't said too much about South America. But let's talk about those traders and their commitments right now. Where are they at and does that matter? Is that maybe why we saw a little bit of that sell off pressure stop at the end of the week? 

[ROBINSON] Yeah. I mean, they're the reason we rallied. Okay. The when we went to 425 there in and we went from 425 to 550, you know, we had the pro farmer tour. We had a lot of bullish ideas. Everybody was on board. Everybody was bottled up, a lot of good technical action. But we had two really disappointing USDA reports. And the second one is really one that I think caught everybody surprised. I wrote it in my letter. I called it controlled demolition. The reason we rallied, it's also the reason we had a collapse. And you know, the funds were long 300,000 corn. They sold 80,000 last week. They sold 80,000 the previous week. They're still long a couple hundred corn. So, you tell me, are they going to sit and wait? Probably. I think the biggest bulk has been done in the last two weeks. It feels like this. 451 area. 453 area is kind of breathing room. Not to say that we couldn't go back down there. So, if you were hedged, you know, some guys had good hedges, some guys didn't. You know, moving ahead, I'd say, okay, we know what the worst case scenario is. We go back down to 425. You know, put something cheap on and hope that you get a rally to sell. Hopefully we do get something where we get back up to, you know, I can tell you one thing, a lot of people are going to be aggressively selling. If we do get a $5 print, I can tell you that right there. That 495 area is going to be for corn area. 

[YEAGER] Is there a number in beans that you like? 

[ROBINSON] Beans actually are still pretty good shape. You know, if you take the low from right before the rally started, 1165 to 1335 1250, we're right in the middle and the funds really haven't done that much panic selling. And beans, they're still along a couple hundred thousand beans. So that is I if there's anything the silver lining to that, they've actually held their bean position pretty well. And why does it matter? Because we don't have a weather story right now. Demand story is kind of out the window. China's buying what they promised they were going to buy, nothing more. I think a lot that was a big disappointment. I think with the last meeting with China, we thought there was going to be something extra. And when nothing was mentioned about corn and there was no new business, you know, people vote with their feet. So, 1250 is a very key level. You're basically still in the middle of that huge rally we had with dollar 70 rally. That's a good level. And I think that if we can get back up to $13, I would say you're going to see a lot of people want to sell beans at $13. You're going to see a really aggressive selling around, you know, the 495 area, $5. 

[YEAGER] Feeder market. They benefited a little bit from this low part in corn, right. How much benefit have they taken advantage of? 

[ROBINSON] Well, they threw every negative thing they could at the beginning of the year. I'm not going to list them here. But there were four things, you know, in the last thing was when they lowered the tariffs. We've had a tremendous recovery pretty much 65, almost 70% of what we lost. So, this rally has been, you know, a combination of people realizing that fundamentally, there's still the problem. The herd is not big enough. And the breaking corn is certainly helpful. So that's, you know, there's always a silver lining they have. So, for if you're a cattle, if you have a feedlot, you know, you're really happy that corn just dropped, you know, 75 $0.80. So, there's some silver lining there. We are going to get a cattle on feed today. I didn't see it yet, but people with the feeling was that it was going to be bullish and friendly. The problem is it could be a by the rumor sell the fact we've already had this tremendous rally. It was a really good opportunity for producers to take advantage of it, especially if you were kicking holes in the wall back on the low, because that was a painful, painful situation to be at two months ago. So, it was a great recovery. Hopefully we can keep it going. 

[YEAGER] I just have a few seconds left. Hog market just doesn't seem to get any better. Any good news? 

[ROBINSON] Oversupplied here, oversupplied in China and we're within a stone's throw of six year lows in prices. And it's been kind of a slow grind. Lower. The market's oversold. The funds are record short. So, I would say this maintain your floor. Look for short covering rallies. But fundamentally there's still no reason for these funds to cover their short position in on lean hogs. Unfortunately. And the funds I know we talk so much about the funds right now. They are a force of nature. And it's just, you know, people get mad at them. They get irritated with them. It's a two sided story. I mean, that's why when they help you get these good rallies and file this experience away, we had this tremendous rally. You got to use it when they're on your side. 

[YEAGER] And guess what? Speaking of sides, we're out of the time side. Okay, Chris, hold that thought. We'll bottle it up. We'll get you in a minute. Thanks. Chris. Robinson, everybody. You've been watching the market analysis there with Chris Robinson. If you're watching online or on the PBS app, we're going to stay here. Continue that discussion with Chris and Market Plus. That is our online only segment. Find it wherever you get your podcasts or at Markettomarket.org to watch, listen, or read. We roll out new material on our YouTube channel every week. We put up some regular features from this program, as well as some classic items from our vault. Subscribe now at youtube.com/MarkettoMarket. Next week. A landlocked aquaculture operation finds its profits in the pond. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week. 

[ANNOUNCER] Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

♪♪

[ANNOUNCER] I wouldn't be here without my customers.

Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers. They're very dear to our hearts.

It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

♪♪

[ANNOUNCER] Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Philip Lietz of Alta, Iowa, in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programing.

[ANNOUNCER] Market to Market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.