[PAUL YEAGER] Welcome back to the table for the Friday, October 16th, 2026 Market Plus. Shawn Hackett still with us here. Shawn, got a couple pieces of paper but I don't really need them with you. I just look at you and make sure I dodge what's coming. We got I said it during the TV show that we had about 6 or 9 questions about USDA in last week's report. Let's start with the first one, shall we? We're not going to do all of them, but I just want to let you know we did see all of them. But let's start with Roger in Nebraska. He wants to know. While most farmers have seen their own eye with their own eyes, that their corn yields are down, please explain why in the world USDA has raised the corn yield by three bushels in their latest report. Where I'm at in eastern Nebraska, there is a lot of lodging corn and we are having difficulties getting the crop out due to excessive rains. This is back to the backyard story that we hear every year. It's dry, it's wet, it's whatever. 

[SHAWN HACKETT] I don't think anyone can look at their area and say they know the national yield, because every area has different weather conditions, different soils and so forth and so on. So, and it's even harder even for those that do crop tours to get the number right. So, I think, I think you have to look at the situation and say, the only thing we can do up until harvest results start coming in from the field is give our best guess based on our capabilities. Can the USDA maybe do a better job? Can they apply technologies? Maybe in a better way? Probably. Could they have waited until November to make a bigger adjustment on yield when more evidence was in place? I think they could have and should have. Does it mean that the right or wrong, or soon will soon find out? And so, I just think that too many times you look at weather in your backyard, you look at your field and think that the rest of the, of the, of the country is the same. And it really isn't. It's very variable and very, very hard to say for sure just because that part of Nebraska is bad, that the USDA is incorrect. 

[YEAGER] There's also midterm political questions we'll get into in a minute. So, let's get to Scott and Iowa, who I know has been busy trying to get harvest done. What has a better chance of recovering corn, soybeans, cattle. And even though I don't have hogs, hogs do they, though, have a chance to rally? 

[HACKETT] I think the best catalyst for a rally is the soybean market, because we're going to be moving into a key point of weather for South America and Brazil specifically. And so, you know, weather tends to be the great equalizer. It tends to be something that if it turns sour, you can certainly get a rally fairly quickly. And moving into mid late November onward. As we said in the main show, that's the catalyst for soybeans. And I think that there's a really good chance that this super El Nino is going to create some adverse weather worry and bring some buying back into the soybean complex. So, I would think that soybean has the best catalyst for the first one, or probably the best kind of a move off of the lows here that we've set here in the next couple of weeks.

[YEAGER] Do Super El Ninos or just El Ninos, do they last more than one year? 

[HACKETT] Typically not especially super El Ninos do. Definitely do not. They go up and they as fast as they go up, they come straight back down. If you look at the typical analog for a super El Nino, it'll peak in November, December. All the models are suggesting that. And by the following summer we typically are in a La Nina. By the summer July of 2027, we are probably going to be in a La Nina. That's how fast it ends. So, you go from one extreme to the other, you know, from one growing season to the next. That's what we're anticipating. And that's what the historical context says about Super El Ninos. 

[YEAGER] And I know we have a question about what it means for South America production. You kind of talked about that in the program. There's a theory kind of developing about Brazil, kind of split in two in how it's impacted. Do you fall? Which camp do you fall into? 

[HACKETT] Well, they are impacted. Opposite the North is an Amazon monsoon activity thing. The South is an ocean flow thing. And what we know from Super El Ninos is that central south corn, central south soybeans, it's excessive rainfall. And we've seen record rainfall so far this planting season. Central, north, central, west where they grow second crop corn and the rest of soybeans is typically hot and dry normally in a super El Nino, it's not so wet in the south. They have really good crops that offsets the north, and overall the crops are okay and Argentina is pretty good. What we think is going to happen because this Super League is so unusual, so strong, so anomalous. We think the flooding in the South actually creates poor crops. And we think that the hot, dry weather comes in the north, creates a poor crop, and we actually can get a total crop down for soybeans that we typically don't see. In fact, 2023 was the first year that we saw yields overall down 10% below expectation in Brazil. It's the first time we ever really seen anything like that. We think we could see at least a repeat performance of that, potentially even more so if we really get if this flooding in the South really keeps going, it could be a big problem. 

[YEAGER] What do I do to take advantage of such action? 

[HACKETT] Well, I mean, what I'm saying is, is that I think we could get a weather related rally, whether premium gets put back into the soybean complex into, let's say, November, December, January, you get a weather related rally that takes you back into the overhead resistance levels that were just at. And you get an opportunity to move some cash corn that you want to need to or would like to. And remember what's good for soybeans. It's not going to hurt the corn market, right? The corn market's going to follow along and so will the wheat market. So, I think soybeans can be the leader here for a while and help the whole grain complex. All things being equal. 

[YEAGER] Well, you kind of answered my next question a little bit here, Shawn. But let's just see. This one's Holt's View farms in Iowa. Would it be a smart idea to store corn this fall and sell next year? 

[HACKETT] I'm much more favorable overall, generally speaking, towards corn. I think that the corn market has a much stronger, stable demand. We don't have to worry about China buying or not buying. And what I when I look at how expensive the corn crop is to put in the ground, not only here but elsewhere. And, and I look at what I think is going to take place with geopolitics, the diesel price and everything and the fertilizer prices and everything else. I think it's going to be very, very hard for the corn market to plant the amount of acres needed next year without keeping the price much more attractive than it already is. And so, for that reason, I'm much more favorable for storing corn in the bin and letting the soybeans go. Right now, soybean price of 13 is not a bad price. That actually pencils out pretty good right now. 

[YEAGER] This week's MtoM podcast is about the fertilizer market. I've seen mainstream stories have more about the fertilizer market looking the weather impacting some of the action here in this part of the world. So yes, the fertilizer is definitely on the minds. And you mentioned midterm elections and politics. Matt in Iowa wants to know what direction can we expect that grains are going to go into the midterm elections? 

[HACKETT] As I said in the main show, I'm kind of feeling the grains are going to struggle. All commodities have been struggling outside of crude, have been struggling going into this. Lots of uncertainty, lots of headlines of leverage, trying to be pulled ahead of the elections to buy votes and such. I just think that because in the stock market, you know, the last couple of days, you know, the Nasdaq has been getting hit very, very hard. Lots of these AI tech stocks down 20 and 30%. I just think it's a turbulent time going into these midterms. And I would not anticipate speculators getting too excited to come into the grain complex until we get through those elections. And then after that, I think the game is on. 

[YEAGER] Park your money for two weeks. 

[HACKETT] That's what I would do. 

[YEAGER] Let's we have a couple of questions here about the direction of corn and beans and where they've gone. I think Shawn's kind of answered Bruce's question in Illinois as well as Steve's question. Robbie asks about fat cattle, but I want to do Bradley in Nebraska. I know, I hope Bradley continues to get well. I know he had a little injury over there, but Bradley can cash. He wants to know can cash cattle trade $20 higher by the end of the year? 

[HACKETT] Anything's possible. But I think it's highly unlikely what the headwinds that we see from feeders coming over the border, consumer demand continuing to be suspect. Holiday seasonal demand maybe not being quite as good as it has been in the past. Importing beef, although not the high cuts but the lower cuts. I just I just don't see the basis for that to happen. And if we're right about the grain markets catching a bid here in November and going higher, especially corn, you know, on the feeders take a take a hit. It's going to it's going to drag the fats down as well. 

[YEAGER] Fred in Oklahoma finally received rain this week. Some of the his neighbors had not had rain in a while. What does rain do in the southwest United States? In cattle country where we feed a lot. What's that do to this market? Is that enough of an activity to prompt change in your thinking? 

[HACKETT] Well, I mean, certainly if you finally get rainfall and you finally get pasture growth to go and you finally getting better conditions for that we haven't had in quite a while. I mean, that obviously allows animals to feed and get fatter and, and, and gives confidence for the cattlemen to, to not liquidate too soon and that sort of thing. So, it's a negative factor. It's not it's a long term negative factor. Obviously, you know, we don't need it just can't be a couple of months of rain. I said we're going back to La Nina next summer. And La Nina typically means drought returns to the west. So, it's really about is this a long term weather pattern change? I don't really think it is. It's a short term negative, but not sure it's a long term change in the trend of the way the cattle market herd rebuilding has just not been occurring in any manner that we've been accustomed to in the past. 

[YEAGER] I thought you were supposed to bring sunny news to us. What happened? Sean. 

[HACKETT] I am sunny. I'm always optimistic about it. 

[YEAGER] Well, let's close with this. What are you most sunny about? You mentioned corn. You mentioned the potential for some rallies here in November, December, January. Given if Super El Nino does take hold in South America on the top of Sean's sunny list, what's there? 

[HACKETT] I mean, my feeling is that when I look at the corn market and I look at second crop corn, which we didn't talk about with the weather, but a super El Nino has impacted second crop corn significantly in the past, where it hasn't done soybeans as much because most of it's grown in the hot, dry areas. We've seen corn heels down 20% plus multiple times in 23 and 2015. And if you think about having that happen again, and you think about how the Brazilians are making ethanol out of corn left and right, and the exportable corn supplies are, are not really growing that much. And their cattle industry is growing like crazy. That's a pretty exciting outlook. And if we go into a La Nina weather pattern, which is a, a hotter, drier pattern, and it happens to be pollination time in July, I know, and we don't need China to be buying corn from us. I really like the outlook for corn. I just think when you look risk versus reward, all the different scenarios, I have a hard time not feeling very, very good about where corn prices will be in the spring and the summer. 

[YEAGER] You went 11 minutes, 23 seconds without saying China. So, I guess I just need to ask, was that intentional? Are we to the point right now where we're back to that we're not dependent on China for our future actions in the immediate term here in the commodities? 

[HACKETT] I mean, I really think at this point, you know, China has come and we've had these deals or deals, supposed deals. The only thing that China matters for is for soybeans. But the way our crush keeps growing and the way we're getting a strong domestic demand over time, even that dependance, I think, is going to start to go down. I really don't think China is a big factor here. I especially if the midterm elections go to the Democratic side and the majority is lost by the Republican side, I think China is off the table as a as a moving factor for grains for the foreseeable future. I don't really expect them to be. I think it's already priced in. Whatever they're going to do that's already priced in. I'm not expecting that to be a driver of grains. It's not part of my thinking. 

[YEAGER] Well, we're glad that we're part of your thinking. We always appreciate your insight. Shawn, great to see you. 

[HACKETT] Always a blast, Paul. Thanks so much. 

[YEAGER] Shawn Hackett everybody. And next week we are going to talk about pressing the pick of the crop into a profitable bottom line. And Chris Robinson will be here to break down the commodity markets for all of us here at Iowa PBS and the Market to Market TV show. Thanks for joining us and have a great week. 

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