Market to Market - May 16, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market -

Farmers and policy wonks look for clues in the pause of tariffs with a major trading partner. 

A long running Midwest refugee center worries about the future.

And commodity market analysis with Don Roose. Next.

Announcer: What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage, and drying equipment, helping farmers feed the world. 

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years. We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Announcer: “This is the Friday, May 9, 2025 edition of Market to Market - the Weekly Journal of Rural America.”

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.  

Congress is trying to put together a big budget bill –  1,116 pages – incorporating the current projections of revenue and spending needed for campaign priorities. 

Meanwhile, tariff policy, trade negotiations and price hikes are already in the shopper’s cart before it heads down retail store aisles. 

The inflation reading from consumer prices slowed for the third consecutive month adding just 0.2 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year-over-year mark.  

The producer price index dropped 0.5 percent, the biggest move lower in five years. The year-over-year reading was 2.4 percent. 

Retailers added 0.1 percent in sales last month as shoppers look to navigate the wake from stop-and-go tariff policies. 

Tariff impact could be felt in the next two to three months as businesses work through inventory they stockpiled at the beginning of 2025. 

The largest retailer in the world, Walmart, said this week they expect to raise prices in stores because of tariffs.

The two countries involved in the biggest trade discussions paused their disagreements for 90 days but have yet to ink anything permanent. 

Peter Tubbs reports.

Paul Yeager: This week, the economy adjusted its economic expectations after President Trump retreated on his tariff strategy with China.

The U.S. and China reached a deal on Tuesday to cut tariffs for 90 days while continuing negotiations on a long term trade pact.

Terrence Guay, Pennsylvania State University: “So it may be the case where tariffs are just a lot less than they were initially, which both countries can, can claim as a win. President Trump can say we have higher tariffs than we did before he came to office. China can say that we got President Trump and the United States to reduce tariffs significantly on Chinese goods sent to the United States.”

Even with the reduction of tariffs with China, the average duty rates for goods imported to the U.S. are higher than any time since 1934, just after the height of the Great Depression. 

Terrence Guay, Pennsylvania State University: “I think one of the new things that may develop as a result of this is that the trade policies that the Trump administration is imposing on many countries around the world, I think it's actually going to be counterproductive with respect to our relationship with China. A lot of countries now see China as a more reliable trade and investment partner than the United States is.”

While American importers have welcomed the drop in tariff rates, the 90-day window is too short to return to the shipping volumes seen before the restarted tariff conflict. Uncertainty has paused corners of the economy that are dependent on imports.

Terrence Guay, Pennsylvania State University: “China, if you looked at it, probably got the best deal on these in these negotiations in Switzerland, they got a lower tariff than had been imposed. And as a result of that, they now know how President Trump is willing to play this game and how far he might be willing to negotiate. So I think for China, this is probably more of a win for that country than for the United States.”

According to USDA data, more than 43% of last year’s soybean crop was exported to China with an estimated value of $12.8 billion. American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland told members of the Senate Finance Committee that American soybean farmers are under pressure. 

American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland: “The Phase I deal with China had wonderful opportunities if compliance and enforcement had taken place, but it didn't. But we would like to see a minimum of those volumes return, and we need those desperately…Our prices are similar to what they were pre-trade war in 2018, but our cost of production are so much higher...”

The Trump Administration is facing at least seven lawsuits over its trade practices. Plaintiffs are arguing that Trump is asserting powers he does not have. 

Tariffs are paid by the companies that are importing goods, and the costs are usually passed on to consumers.

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.

Paul Yeager:  Immigration policy reform was  a big part of the Donald Trump for President campaign and work to make those changes has carried over into his second term.

The Supreme Court heard arguments this week on birthright citizenship. 

Those here illegally have been the target of raids.

But those here because of turmoil in their home countries have also been swept up in the conversation.

Programs that help with bringing refugees into the U.S. from war torn regions of the world have seen their government funding cut.

An agency in central Illinois is one of those groups facing an uncertain future. 

Colleen Bradford Krantz has our Cover Story. 

Louis Nguyen, an immigrant from Vietnam, and his son have stopped by The Refugee Center in Champaign, Illinois for an appointment on a recent morning. Now a citizen, he has a job and only occasionally needs help from the center, usually with more complex tasks such as medical coverage paperwork.

Louis Nguyen, Champaign, Illinois: “I love it here and how somebody do good. And help somebody have a good life and understand anything: the paperwork. I love it here.”

He was told soon after arrival in 2004 that The Refugee Center was where he could find help when needed. What he didn’t know then was that it was another immigrant from his own homeland who helped start the center 45 years ago.

Now 99, Tam Wei lives across the metro area in an Urbana assisted living center. And she, like those who now run the refugee center, hopes to see the center survive a financial threat facing many centers that also serve refugees, a legal category of immigrants who are viewed as being in danger in their home nations.

Tam Wei, born in 1926 in a small village not far from the city of Hanoi in Vietnam, had only been married six months when her young husband, a doctor, was gunned down in 1946 during a post-World War II conflict. He and Tam had stopped on the street to treat a wounded Vietnamese soldier when one of the occupying French soldiers fired the unprovoked shot.

Tam Wei, Champaign, Illinois: “I tried to open his jacket and I think it was too much and I passed out… I think he passed away right in front of me.”

Tam felt the following year was a blur as she, as a widowed 20-year-old, struggled to figure out how to move forward. Ultimately, after watching children at a Catholic school and feeling a spark of interest in education, a nun gave her a chance to lead a classroom. She enjoyed it so much that she took an exam that would allow her to teach in public schools. She earned a top score and was hired by a school in Hanoi.

By 1951, she had studied for and earned two bachelor’s degrees, but wanted to continue studying, this time abroad. With her influential, non-Communist family facing threats from the Communists, she was also eager to move to a more peaceful place. She would end up accepting an offer to continue studying in Geneva, Switzerland, where she studied under the famous educational psychologist Jean Piaget, who helped change how educators understood student learning.

 By the mid-1950s, Tam was accepted at the University of Illinois, where she would earn her Master’s in Educational Psychology and later her doctorate. It was there that she was introduced to Lun-Shin Wei, a young man from Taiwan who was helping soybean breeders develop a soybean that would appeal to western tastes. The two were married in 1955 and would raise four children.

By 1970, Tam Wei was hired as a school psychologist and traveled a large area of rural Illinois. She worried about working remote areas while the nation was involved in the Vietnam War. But said she almost always found kindness and gratitude.

Tam Wei, Champaign, Illinois: “It was very challenging. Because Vietnam War still going on and I’m a woman. And they may never see a Vietnamese woman. But that’s okay… I’m one to take on a challenge….You know, when you are very sincere and really want to do something for the kid, it goes through.”

Vietnamese and other Southeast Asian refugees, a class of legal immigrants who have fled their country due to fear of persecution or violence and fled via another interim country, began arriving in the Champaign-Urbana metro area during and after the Vietnam War. Although she had lived in the U.S. for 20 years by then, Tam Wei still remembered the frightening feeling of arriving in a new unfamiliar country and decided she needed to help.

Tam Wei, Champaign, Illinois: “So what I should do? I should do something. That was the only thing. Even though I have no idea about administration.”

And she wasn’t alone in wanting to help. She convinced a friend Quyt Nguyen, who had worked as a high school administrator in Vietnam, to join her.

They went around town, talking to churches about the refugees. Many of those churches and their members began offering to sponsor refugees. By 1980, those efforts had led to the opening of the refugee center, initially in a small room in an Urbana church.

John Muirhead, The Refugee Center, Board Member, Champaign, Illinois: “I first got involved about 1978, ’79. I had just come to town to work as a director of an adult education program and one of the courses we offered was English as a second language. And through that, I met Tam Wei and also her co-director Quyt Nguyen when they were helping new arrivals. …Tam Wei is very persuasive so she said, ‘Oh, John, it would be good if you were on our board. And that’s how it started.”

Muirhead has been involved ever since and is proud of all they accomplished, first with Vietnamese and other Southeast Asian refugees, and later with refugees and other immigrants from all over the world.

John Muirhead, The Refugee Center, Board Member, Champaign, Illinois: “It’s really amazing when you think back over the almost 45 years that I’ve had the privilege of witnessing this.”

Things changed financially for the center in early January when President Trump announced a pulling back of some funding related to refugees. It affected a refugee support system the Champaign center had joined in 2016. Within a few months, the federal government had cancelled its contracts with the entities that oversee most refugee centers around the country. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, which is the supervising and funding partner for The Refugee Center in Champaign, was among those. All federal support for refugees is essentially shut down.

Lisa Wilson, The Refugee Center, Director, Champaign, Illinois: “State funding is fine right now. It’s the federal funding we lost from the reception and placement program…”

The center will have to trim about 15% of its budget, but because of strong state support and private donations, the work they do with other categories of immigrants will continue. Others focused only on refugees may not be so lucky.

Lisa Wilson, The Refugee Center, Director, Champaign, Illinois: “I have great concerns about the system. I’m so sad about the fact that the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops is no longer a resettlement agency. It’s my sincere hope that that will change in the future. Refugee resettlement is the gold standard of legal immigration. People are vetted, they are interviewed, they have support through either family that’s already here or agencies like ours…. So I’m very sad to see the Trump administration has decided to target refugee resettlement.”

Tam Wei, who lost her husband, is enjoying her family and friends in retirement. She doesn’t want to dwell on politics. But she does remember a lesson she learned long ago in Vietnam that still serves her today.

Immediately after her first husband was shot in 1946, the French soldiers, thinking her Red Cross coat meant she was a nurse, took Tam Wei to an infirmary at a jail, intending for her to help. For 12 days, she was confined with a group of women who were former prostitutes. Coming from a prominent family in Vietnam, her reaction might have been to judge those women who came from tougher lives. But, upon hearing their stories, she began to understand how poverty - the need to survive - had driven their decisions.

She sometimes found herself reminding her fellow Midwesterners of the same lesson she learned in that jail: listen to others and be compassionate.

Tam Wei, Champaign, Illinois: “What do they have? They have only their dignity. If your church is able to give so much, why don’t you give them that amount and let them spend it instead of making them come and ask for that? You need to think of the dignity of the people.”

For Market to Market, I’m Colleen Bradford Krantz.

Announcer: Next, the Market to Market report.

Paul Yeager: This week was full of ups and downs from optimism over tariff suspensions, a bullish WASDE and a possible break in the record runup in livestock prices.

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract gained 3 cents and the July corn contract lost 6 cents. 

Losses in soy oil melted much of the gains from earlier in the week as lower biofuel blending levels were released. 

The July soybean contract was weaker by a penny while July meal dropped $2.20 per ton.

July cotton shrank $1.83 per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, June Class Three milk futures improved 83 cents.

The livestock market was mixed. June cattle sold off $2.45. August feeders cut $2.70 and the June lean hog contract added $2.75. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index expanded by 88 ticks. 

June crude oil increased by $1.51 per barrel. 

COMEX gold fell $157.10 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index expanded more than 2 points to settle at 530 - 95.

Joining us now is regular market analyst Don Roose.  Welcome.

Don Roose: Great to be back, Paul.

Paul Yeager: There's really just one topic we could cover all the time and that's trade. But let's start with wheat because that is caught up into it. But first from a technical perspective the bottom seems to be the easiest place to go. Is that where we're going to stay?

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think when you look at the wheat market, actually, it had a key reversal. Chicago wheat, Kansas City wheat, you know, as we got close to $5 in Kansas City in Chicago on July. So, maybe that's the start of something where the cheapest wheat in the world. You know, so we're at value. We're also moved into a feed wheat, as harvest is going to start to pick up here as we get close to June, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Speaking of the harvest, we had the wheat tour this week. Any surprises from that?

Don Roose: Well, you know, there again, the wheat market just can't find a friend. You know, from a fundamental standpoint. It's, we were, ten bushels over the five year average in Kansas. So, you know, that's, that's a lot. and then the ending stocks that we had, the beginning of the week went up for this next year also. So, I think it's really, how low is low? And maybe we've hit a world value down here where demand buys, the value eventually pull in corn.

Paul Yeager: It doesn't seem to be helping wheat, but corn specifically in the old crop sector say, hey, does anybody have any money left after Monday's report?

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think when you look at the corn market, actually, the reports on Monday were actually, positive. We just didn't have a pause or reaction to them, which is negative. But the market, very much like the wheat market, is trying to put in a technical bottom. We're down at a level that I don't think the producer is going to sell. And we're also, you know, we're about 8-10 cents off of contract lows in the DEC. And on a negative, we went into contract lows on September, so we haven't been this low over the life of the contract in September, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Well, let's finish up for a moment on the old crop. You're hearing that nobody's really selling right now? They're holding. Are they holding out for a certain price?

Don Roose: Well, I think there was pretty aggressive sales during the winter. You know, when we were up around $5.21 over $5 in July. So, you know, when you're talking to carry out that is close to 1.4 billion probably going to tighten up on the next report. I think from a producer standpoint, at these price levels, I think you're waiting to see once what the weather looks like going forward, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Well, that's what I want to talk about on the December corn we're showing right now, that five-year ahead of the five year average. But it is such a strange line of the haves and have nots when it comes to rain. The haves don't want it anymore. The have-nots are begging for something. What's that doing to the market?

Don Roose: Well, you know, rain makes green. I mean, I think that's the big overall view. And the wet areas down the southeast, not enough acres to make a big change. You know, it's too wet up in the far north again. But I think the guts a lot of the Corn Belt is favorable for the most part. And I think that's taking one of the risk premiums out of the market. And that's if we're going to get the crop planted, we probably think, Sunday night, 80% of the corn planted, 65% of the beans. And, you know, basically we're going to, go forward without problems, prevent plant acres could be less too. So that's another issue for more acres.

Paul Yeager: Do the tighter stocks equal more susceptibility to weather?

Don Roose: Well, exactly I think you know let's look at the corn on new crop. We're at a 1.8 billion carryout. You know when you look at the yield at 181 bushels is what the government's saying. If you start to move that yield around, you know, does it go up a lot? You know, it's going to be tough, you know. But if it goes down, you could easily go back to a carry out of 1.3 billion, something like that, of course, with an expanded yield. You could go up to over 2 billion again. So there's a lot of information to go forward yet. And it's a foot race now. We're going to see once what the weather does as we go forward. But remember usually we see weather pattern changes or looks around the 4th of July, but that's always ahead.

Paul Yeager: Oh yeah, we haven't even hit Memorial Day. So we have a long way to go to that. But let's get into a question. If we could. Chris in Illinois, I had posted this. Okay. I admit it's our friend Chris Robinson. He put it as a headline of his newsletter today, was this a base or a trap door on new crop corn and beans?

Don Roose: Well, it's the wrong time of year to sell from a producer standpoint. I mean, we've got a concerning weather going forward. Noah came out with a 90 day forecast. They want a little bit drier, a little bit hotter for the summer. So anything can happen. I still remember ‘83 when it was perfect. And after the 4th of July it just quit raining and it got hot.

Paul Yeager: Well, you mentioned 1983. There's also the discussion of comparisons to 2012. Do you buy into that?

Don Roose: Yeah, I mean, it's possible. And you have people talking about the 89 year drought cycle. So, you know, it's this time of year where you, you know, you try and get scared on the weather. And usually we lose the crop 1 or 2 times, three times during the crop year. Also, you know, buyer, seller beware is what I would say right now.

Paul Yeager: Same thing in soybeans. Again, tight stocks and weather. Is that the two things they're moving?

Don Roose: Yeah I think that's it. You know, of course we have a lot of trade, out here that is very uncertain with the tariffs. You know, it looks like I mean, we're going to produce so many soybeans in the world, and we're going to consume so many. And I think from a tariff perspective, yeah, maybe China doesn't buy as many, but maybe Vietnam, some of these other countries buy more. So I think it's just a shuffleboard going on over there. But again, it's going to be just think it if you drop soybean yield two bushels an acre, there's 170, 70 million bushels just like that. You're down to 120 million carryout. So it's just too early to have a knockout punch on the grains, Paul.

Paul Yeager: I got three things we have to talk about with soybeans. Let's start with renewable fuels. And the RVO’s were lower. But as was pointed out to counter that, we've overused what the mandate has been. Is that enough of a market mover?

Don Roose: Well, you're right, I mean, it was, you know, we were going to have a larger, you know, usage on the biofuel and then it went the other way. Soybean oil did go limit-down on Thursday, due to the uncertainty. I think it was still sorting that one out. Paul, I don't think we have a clear picture on what the usage is really going to be going forward, to be honest.

Paul Yeager: Do we have a clear picture on the size of the Brazilian crop then, and what it impacts us in the trade here as we look at November?

Don Roose: Well, that's another good point. Both Brazil, CONAB and Argentina, Buenos Aires exchange, both of them put the soybean crop higher, 117 million bushels in Argentina in about, 20 million larger in Brazil. So big crops are getting bigger. And along that line on corn, they put the corn crop up 160 million bushels. But interesting, next year on the world ending stocks, you know, shake it up all the way around. Down 400 million for next year. So, versus this year. So world stocks on corn are getting tighter. U.S. corn stocks, I'd call them not burdensome. And we'll see where we go from here.

Paul Yeager: Especially with the intentions to plant more, is what you're saying? 

Don Roose: Yeah. I mean, even with the acres that we have, big acre expansion, we still end up with a carry out of 1.8 and you take a yield down, it can get tight pretty fast, but I mean, that's not a positive either yet, Paul, because we have adequate supplies. And, but my bet is on this next crop report that we get in June that the exports go up 50 to 100 million again. And being exports go up, tightening again.

Paul Yeager: Is that because we've had some agreement with China? Is that why you're hedging it on that?

Don Roose: No. That's just the old crop demand okay. But that is a good point. When you go to new crop, actually the government put exports on beans up 75 million for next year on beans. And they left corn pretty much the same. So with all these tariffs, that was our first look. They're not really saying we're going to lose export pace.

Paul Yeager: But how much before the market needs to see. As I said something in the intro versus I just said I had a deal.

Don Roose: Well, you know, I think proof is you know, we need certainty to see once what we have going forward. I mean, it's, it's a whole new era from that standpoint. But, I don't think we're going to lose a lot of demand on the export front, but I do think it'll shuffle around, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Let's get to a live cattle, because you mentioned the tough day in soy oil on Thursday. Cattle - Wednesday, Thursday pretty tough. Friday, stabled a little bit. But I guess the big question everybody wants to know is this finally the end of this bull run?

Don Roose: If you're a technical trader, you would say that we just put in our multi-year top this last year because this last week, because you had a key reversal, in the cattle market close. We've had four of those so far this year, but we moved further into the cycle. So I think you have to be very careful. The only thing that's holding this up technically is cash. Cattle traded again, steady towards the end of the week. Here's one box beef hit an all-time record, on Friday, 353. The highest record we ever had before was 343. The highest cattle market we've ever had in history before. This year was 2014, just over 191, June. Cattle this week went to $218.62, did have an $8 slide on the front month, but bounced back a little bit Friday but shaky up here.

Paul Yeager: The consumer really starts to balk when box beef gets to that point. They will see that effect? Will that be enough to maybe end this run?

Don Roose: Well that's the key. I mean when does, uh, you know the Packer doesn't know who's going to buy next. You know the weekend and it just doesn't clear. So beef last week was 8% higher than a year ago. The ground beef is 12% higher. Pork 2% higher. In chicken, 1.5% higher than a year ago. So, yeah, it's standing up here pretty high from that standpoint.

Paul Yeager: Are you hearing anything about feedlots and pastures empty and some cattle keep producing areas for feeders?

Don Roose: No, I think the problem that's happened, and this is how the cattle market tops out, Paul, is the packer, so far, less. Look at it. He's lost, this week, about $180 a head. The feedlots are making about 280 cow calf guys making about $670 a head. But how a cattle market tops out is he pushes the beef up high enough to confuse consumers, stalls, and then you start to back up the cattle in the feedlot, big weights, and eventually that starts to pull the market back. And by the way, I mean, we're coming into a time frame where the seasonal demand, Memorial Day buying is probably behind us. So you've got these big holidays, in the rearview mirror.

Paul Yeager: And you had a nice run up in hogs, too, this week.

Don Roose: Yeah, the hog market, well, seasonally on hog market usually does start to go up this time of year. BLT season, gets in actually, you know, when you look at it, bellies usually go up about 40% into the summer. And that drags the hog market up. And the technicals, on June hogs are about $5, up $105.17. There's a gap. Gaps usually get filled. So that seems like that's a target maybe.

Paul Yeager: Are you hearing people making sales right now? Yes or no?

Don Roose: In the hogs? Well, I think when you look at the hog market, when you get over $100, you start to get a little bit cautious. So yeah, you're seeing some catch up sales.

Paul Yeager: All right. Don, good to see you. Thank you so much.

Don Roose: Thank you Paul.

Paul Yeager: We are going to pause this analysis and continue our discussion about these markets in our Market Plus segment. You can find both Analysis and Plus on our website of markettomarket.org. This is also the place to register for our next live event June 3 in LeClaire, Iowa. Information about the gathering is on our website.

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Next week, a look at the many sides to a renewed water fight in south Texas.

Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS. Which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage, and drying equipment, helping farmers feed the world. 

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years. We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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