Market to Market - May 30, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market -

A trade war legal battle leaves future tariffs in limbo. 

Building an agriculture program that’s feeding a changing local community. 

And commodity market analysis with Naomi Blohm. Next.

Announcer: What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years. We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Announcer: “This is the Friday, May 30, 2025 edition of Market to Market - the Weekly Journal of Rural America.”

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.  

More data points this week on spending and inflation. 

As consumers, sometimes big purchases are tied to how we feel about the economy and not always a necessity of a broken washing machine.

New orders for manufactured items meant to last three years or more were down 6.3 percent following four consecutive months of gains. 

Inflation slowed last month according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, the PCE index. The addition of 0.1 percent was the lowest since 2020.  

The annual reading came in at 2.1 percent. 

The GDP shrank for the first time in three years with a loss of 0.2 percent. 

Our government has been set up with checks and balances as the Constitution says Congress has the authority to enact tariffs unless deemed an emergency and then the president can have that power. 

A court agreed with an objection to the president’s emergency deemed-reason in April. Then, another court turned back that order.

Peter Tubbs sorts out the confusing week in tariff news.

President Trump’s tariff strategy took a legal hit Wednesday only to gain new life Thursday.

The United States Court of International Trade blocked reciprocal tariffs unilaterally imposed by President Trump in April. Twin complaints were filed by a group of small business owners who cited they were being harmed financially by the tariffs, and states controlled by Democrats.  

But an appeals court held up the Trump tariff plan late this week and likely ensures the case will eventually be heard by the Supreme Court for another legal battle.

The three judge panel stated that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which became law in 1977, does not authorize a president to levy universal duties on imports. 

Traditionally, one judge hears cases like these, but given the case’s constitutionality basis, three judges heard the arguments. The judges were nominated by Presidents Reagan, Obama and Trump. The panel ordered a halt to the tariffs at issue, and also blocked future changes to them. 

The tariffs, which were announced on April 2, covered virtually every nation on earth and ranged from 11% to 84%.

The judges did not see a connection between tariffs and the emergency of drug trafficking that President Trump was using as justification. Congress traditionally approves changes in tariffs. The White House does have other means of potentially maintaining its tariff plans.

The trade deal reached with the UK earlier in May would be null and void if the court’s ruling stands. Earlier this week, Trump moved back the date to reach a larger agreement with the EU to July 9.

The White House believes it would win an appeal of the ruling before the United States Supreme Court.

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.

Paul Yeager: Part of building a business is knowing what the market needs – which at times may not be known on the onset. 

A relatively new academic program focused on agri-business started at a Midwest university initially focused on basic value-added programs of fish and greens.

However, once the program expanded and the addition of insight to the community presented itself, the pivot became a grade A experience

Josh Buettner reports in our Cover Story. 

Jakob Jerabek/Graduate Student & Greenhouse Manager – Applied Agriculture and Food Studies Department/Morningside University: “I was able to help build this greenhouse through some of my classes here at Morningside and able to help get it running - and I’m now in charge.”                               

Greenhouse Manager Jakob Jerabek is working to improve food security in Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota.  The Morningside University graduate grew up on a farm and was recruited to play football and wrestle.  Now he oversees his Sioux City alma mater’s hydroponic, aeroponic and aquaponic systems.

When coupled with their outdoor garden and 76-acre farm plot, they’ve blazed a trail students can use as a template for future endeavors.

Jakob Jerabek/Graduate Student & Greenhouse Manager – Applied Agriculture and Food Studies Department/Morningside University: “We’re kind of doing our own trials with everything and comparing results.  We have students that are actually able to use that data and break it down and use it in classes.  So, they’re not just using some random textbook data.  They’re actually using greenhouse-produced data as well as the actual produce that we’re harvesting.” 

The school grows everything from landscape flowers and decorative plants for special events – like poinsettias for Christmas at Morningside - to multiple lettuce breeds, root vegetables, cucurbits, nightshades, and various ethnic and commodity crops.

Dr. Thomas Paulsen/Professor & Dean – School of Agriculture and Aviation/Morningside University: “We try very hard to help find the context for students to learn.  When students are working on something that is authentic – that’s real – it means something different than if it’s just a theoretical exercise.”

Dr. Thomas Paulsen is professor and dean of Morningside’s School of Agriculture and Aviation.  He’s grown the agriculture program over the past decade, expanding facilities and acquiring land to help drive higher enrollment - which has turned heads.

Dr. Thomas Paulsen/Professor & Dean – School of Agriculture and Aviation/Morningside University: “This growth is happening, primarily, because we have tremendous support from the administration, from donors, and from alumni who believe in what we are trying to do.  And that’s really to try and bring an experiential learning opportunity to our students that is authentic and helping to solve the problems we see in the real world.”

Jakob Jerabek/Graduate Student & Greenhouse Manager – Applied Agriculture and Food Studies Department/Morningside University: “With our outdoor facilities, we recently partnered with Siouxland Food Bank.  Around 2,000 pounds of produce has been delivered.” 

In addition to filling local charity coffers, Jerabek has helped monetize fresh greens by supplying local restaurant and grocery outlets – but his year-round commercial ventures are rooted in school grounds.

Nick Gunn/General Manager – Sodexo/Morningside University Dining Service: “We went from getting a few baskets of things a year to hundreds of pounds…thousands of pounds of produce.”

Morningside Dining Service General Manager Nick Gunn says he feeds 1000 students per day across all meals and retail locations – averaging around 3,000 pounds of produce consumed every week.  Since hiring on as Executive Chef in 2018, he’s built up the greenhouse relationship to supply twenty percent of his needs while cutting costs and improving quality.

Nick Gunn/General Manager – Sodexo/Morningside University Dining Service: “When you go to wherever your local grocery store is – you buy a head of romaine lettuce.  It’s kind of a pale green with some white in it.  When we get it from them, it’s dark green.  It’s got a much different texture.  Much more of a burst of a flavor when you bite into one of their tomatoes – lot more juicier.  The watermelons are the sweetest thing we had all year.”

Gunn says students flock to campus-grown food – easily identified through their branding.  Once word reached the greater community, new markets emerged.

Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga/Professor and Head, Applied Agricultural and Food Studies/Morningside University: “Morningside provides more than 5000 Africans, that are in Sioux City, this ethnic produce.”

Originally from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Agribusiness Professor Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga immigrated to the U.S. decades ago – working in Illinois and Wisconsin academia before joining Morningside in 2018.  She says many Africans have arrived in the area due to the low cost of living, family atmosphere, and jobs at local packing plants – but something was lacking in their diets.

Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga/Professor and Head, Applied Agricultural and Food Studies/Morningside University: “Every time I tell my colleagues, my friends, my family, Africans here – I am in agriculture, the first thing they ask me: Can you find a way to produce the ethnic produce that we are used to?”

Enter amaranth.  Not the bane of corn and soybean growers, who know it as invasive pigweed, but another variety long bred for discerning palettes outside the U.S.

Dr. Thomas Paulsen/Professor & Dean – School of Agriculture and Aviation/Morningside University: “The first thing you think of, with amaranth, is, well, gee, I never would have thought of that as being a food source, or a staple, for a community.  But it certainly has been.  It’s been an eye-opener for us.” 

Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga/Professor and Head, Applied Agricultural and Food Studies/Morningside University: “I grew up with amaranth, and I wanted to show my students that there are people, also, who are facing food insecurity because they are not used to American food.  So, they have to learn, but, at the same time, it would be helpful for them, also, to have something that they are used to.” 

While Morningside’s greenhouse grows and harvests some 30 pounds or more of amaranth monthly, their outdoor garden bursts at the seams with it and several other African crops including sour-sour, and cassava.  Thanks to key volunteers with agronomic experience in their home countries, some 700 pounds are produced per month outdoors, in-season.

Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga/Professor and Head, Applied Agricultural and Food Studies/Morningside University: “He said, when he comes here, it’s good to see family – many people.  Also, it is bargaining, you know, you can get more than when you go to the store.” 

Many customers come directly to Morningside.  Remaining harvests are sold across town at grocer Aimee International.

Dr. Annie Kinwa-Muzinga/Professor and Head, Applied Agricultural and Food Studies/Morningside University: “The demand is huge.  Believe me.  Whatever we have here is not even meeting the demand.” 

Dr. Paulsen says Morningside graduates should come away from the program with a broad, adaptable skillset, and ingenuity, with respect to value-added endeavors.

Dr. Thomas Paulsen/Professor & Dean – School of Agriculture and Aviation/Morningside University: “When we talk to our students, we say, you know, is there room for you to go back to a family operation?  Sometimes there is, and sometimes there isn’t, unless they create another stream of income.” 

Jakob Jerabek/Graduate Student & Greenhouse Manager – Applied Agriculture and Food Studies Department/Morningside University: “Two point three-three-five.”

Dr. Thomas Paulsen/Professor & Dean – School of Agriculture and Aviation/Morningside University: “I would hope that some of our students would become entrepreneurs.  I think there’s a lot of opportunity for folks in the Midwest, especially in the state of Iowa and Siouxland area, to be able to meet those kinds of needs.  It’s a different approach, but it could be done.” 

For Market to Market, I’m Josh Buettner. 

Announcer: Next, the Market to Market report: 

Paul Yeager:Weather is again the dominant issue, but for a few different reasons this week as the global picture has been the dominant story in this shortened trading week.

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract fell 9 cents and the July corn contract lost 16 cents. 

The soy complex may be tiring of playing the waiting game on trade deals and RVO figures. 

The July soybean contract dropped 19 cents while July meal put on a dime per ton.

July cotton shrank $1.02 per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, June Class Three milk futures declined 18 cents.

The livestock market was mixed. June cattle weakened $1.10. August feeders cut $1.55 and the July lean hog contract added $3.38. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index put on 29 ticks. 

July crude oil lost 90 cents per barrel. 

COMEX gold subtracted $63.20 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index sold off almost 10 points to settle at 524 - 05.

Joining us now is regular market analyst Naomi Blohm. 

Naomi Blohm: Hello.

Paul Yeager: We can easily talk weather. And that's kind of what we have too for wheat to start us off. It's not so much the United States weather, although the wheat belt would argue with us. It's the global weather that's become a story. Which one is dominating the headlines in your mind?

Naomi Blohm: Well, actually, I think they've been a little bit equal this week because we started off the week with some gains because crop conditions for the spring wheat crop and also the Kansas wheat crop declined this week. And so traders are very much in tune with this too much rain pattern. So we're starting to see quality issues become a concern. And we're seeing again the crop ratings decline. So when you look around what's happening in the world, it's been a little bit of a different story. Some parts of Europe have been improving for weather and that kept the market in check this week. And also interesting was that India came out. The country said that they have had a good enough crop that they're not going to need to import, and that sent the market lower this week. But then the next day, India came out and said, we need to make sure we're going to do some rationing and make sure that we're not going to be having people do hoarding, which I thought was kind of ironic because if they have such a great crop, why are they taking measures to make sure that people and their country are not going to be doing hoarding? So the wheat market has been in a little bit of a back and forth pattern. I feel like wheat futures don't have a reason to sell off too much more, because we need to for sure find out where are U.S. crop is. Of course, it has the potential to be fantastic, but those quality issues really could become a big deal. And I'm still hearing portions of Tennessee or southern Illinois that are struggling with what they're trying to do with planting and things like that. So things are an issue in a lot of different places.

Paul Yeager: But haven't we found over the years the United States wheat crop, the market just tends to yawn at it more. So why is it different this year?

Naomi Blohm: Well, I feel like it's different just because of the global picture is a little bit different. Because everything China grows, they need and China needs to import some. We saw them with importing Australian wheat a few weeks back. Everything India grows, they need. And with the Black Sea region of course, the war still a turmoil there. But they haven't had the best crop growing conditions either. And so the world is always two countries away from a major wheat rally, depending on production. And so that's what we're keeping an eye on right now. And we have really fantastic new crop exports on the books for American wheat. So that's been encouraging. And we'll see what crop progress ratings bring on Monday afternoon.

Paul Yeager: And the funds are in some pretty short positions. Do you agree with that?

Naomi Blohm: Well they are and they have just been sitting on those short positions for months now. So if something were to occur in the world that makes us feel like there could be a production issue, that would be a reason for the funds to start to exit those short positions.

Paul Yeager: Speaking of exiting, it looks like a lot of people are heading for the exits on corn. Why?

Naomi Blohm: Well, that was this week because the Brazil crop was viewed as getting larger to the tune of about 4 million metric tons. And remember that suffering a crop that's the second crop in Brazil, that 75% of their total production. And that's the corn that gets exported to the world in August when our crop isn't quite ready. So because there hasn't been a weather issue there, and because they're going to have a good enough crop, the corn market started to shift a little bit lower this week. But we still have corn that needs to get planted and the farmers in Illinois are not happy. They've got 2 million acres to plant yet in Illinois, a million acres in North Dakota, 1.5 million acres in Ohio, and we have about over a million acres in Indiana. And now we are up against the crop insurance deadlines. And the University of Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue University have all done studies that show when this crop gets planted after June, it yields less. So it makes me wonder if the 181 yield that the USDA is touting is actually going to be a possibility.

Paul Yeager: Well, we have some scenarios. I was going to ask you that and beans. But let's, I want to stick with corn for a minute. You mentioned Ohio. That's where Matt is. And he sent us this question. He says Naomi says the market between Mother's Day and Father's Day, the funds have went short on corn here in Ohio. We can't get everything planted. Have I missed the boat or should I just build an ark?

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. And so what he's referring to is there's a seasonal tendency for on the five year, 15 year and 30 year pattern where December corn futures. We'll find a summer seasonal high between Mother's Day and Father's Day. But right now, they have not we haven't seen any kind of a price rally. And the funds have gone short over 100,000 contracts of corn. And so it's quite frustrating when this is occurring because of course, farmers had their best price in January and nothing has happened since. And here's what's really interesting is that a year ago, at this time when we were talking about markets, all crop carryout was at 2 billion bushels. New crop carryout was going to be at 2 billion bushels. July corn was trading at $4.50. December corn was trading at $4.80. Now we have U.S. all crop ending stocks at 1.4 billion bushels. 600 million less than a year ago. At this time, with new crop only going to be pegged at 1.8. And yet the prices are lower than a year ago. And it's not just the U.S. supply that is going to be smaller. It's the global situation. Global ending stocks are tighter for both old crop and new crop, much smaller than a year ago. And while it's nice that Brazil had a good crop, it is not going to fix the tight ending stocks situation. And the Brazilians are thrilled because they can use that for ethanol. So I still feel like there's a weather story that has the ability to develop here. We are just starting June. The crop is not fully planted yet. And again, Illinois with 2 million acres to plant is significant. So I feel like we're going to see some sort of a market push higher here from a seasonal perspective. And they're still talking dry conditions for July and August. It's just a matter of what is actually going to be the catalyst to get the funds to exit some of those short positions.

Paul Yeager: Many things, I think of our friend Matt, who's still trying to get things planted in Illinois, and he is not alone, as you mentioned, the 2 million acres. But given what you've said, the year over year thing and the weather opportunity and the up against a deadline, is there one giant moment that you're expecting that's going to shift this thing? Is this the reason for the optimism all year is the carry out and now the weather hasn't. I mean, how are you putting a finger on what's the real reason here?

Naomi Blohm: Yeah that's what we're all trying to figure out what's going on. Because normally when you have 1.4 billion bushel carryout that used to be like $6 corn back in the day. And the fact that the market is ignoring it, it's just really odd. It's very perplexing to me at this time. And so I'm trying to figure out if the funds just feel like there will be enough corn to get by until there's actually a weather story to trade. So it could be a year where maybe that summer high comes in July. But out of the last 17 years, five years, the high has come in May, seven years the high occurs in June, and five years the high will come in July. So we'll see. At some point, you would think there's going to be a weather event to get things turned around.

Paul Yeager: And I have many more corn questions we'll get to in Market Plus, let's get to beans. You have four scenarios that you plan out here that we're looking at when it comes to carryout, crop size, beans has been the weaker commodity for a long time, but it has shown strength lately. Yeah, granted it fell this week, but what's the biggest factor right now? Well, it's tight US supplies because of course lower acres and tighter in general ending stocks for both old crop and new crop because of the lower planted acres. it'll be interesting, of course, to see if we can hit that high yield number of 52 bushels an acre. That would be a record. but of course, the soybean market is struggling to rally because the reality is that global carryout is record large. But we still have to make sure we're raising a crop here in the United States. And the other reason that the soybean market just kind of continues to spin its wheels here a little bit. Of course, concerns on where the biofuel demand will be, concerns on where exports will be. One thing I wanted to point out, though, regarding exports, is that the USDA has new crop exports pegged near 1.8 billion bushels. And I went back and I looked at 2018 to 2019, the first round of tariffs that we were dealing with. And the USDA kept, the export number for soybeans throughout that turmoil between 1.7 and 1.9 billion bushels throughout that whole time frame. And so right now, there are a number of 1.8 matches, essentially, what happened in 2018. So we know there's uncertainty as far as what China will buy. But right now the USDA is using a number that matches what happened in 2018. Sure. Could we see Brazil come in and, you know, take some more of our export business as possible? but I don't think that they can grab all of that business. So I, I'm very curious what will happen, of course, with exports and with the biofuels.

Paul Yeager: Let's go to dairy for a moment. again, smaller herd. Better for the industry as a whole right now.

Naomi Blohm: Well, it's been all about the cheese, Paul.

Paul Yeager: Still is.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So it's been the cheese demand that's been pushing that market higher. So the, dairy class three markets gained about two and a half bucks over the course of late April into May. And so the cheese demand has been strong. Dairy export demand has been really pretty good overall. And the most recent milk production report actually had milk production up 1.5% from the previous year. And so that kept the market in check. And it made the market not have a reason to get over $20 milk. So we've seen a little bit of a pullback here. And we'll be keeping an eye on cheese demand and also on how the cattle complex does. but dairy complex with potential summer heat coming through. And how that affects production.

Paul Yeager: In live cattle, cCash had been king for quite a while. Early this week that wasn't the case. Has that trend ended?

Naomi Blohm: Well, we saw a quieter week with cattle for cash, but the big hype this week was that false rumor of the screw worm coming into Missouri. And so what that demonstrated was how a rumor, true or false, can really make the market fall apart. And that's how, this cattle complex is going to be varied upon headlines, and the market is going to be just really ready to react and respond to things. So we had news this week that cash was, you know, a little steady. We saw box beef demand okay. Exports were okay. But traders are cautious to take the market higher until we get some bigger concrete reasons of still strong demand showing up and the bearish reversal on daily charts from a couple of weeks ago is still out there as a major topping signal. So we'll see what the cattle complex brings next week. And just a reminder, on Monday is going to be expanded daily limits for the cattle complex. So that'll just add to the volatility.

Paul Yeager: In the hog market. Finally a little bit of seasonal activity. What else?

Naomi Blohm: While the hog market is really just been working higher overall, it had a pullback last week and a little bit earlier this week. But we finished the week with some strength. We had decent export numbers this week and exports overall have been pretty strong. And the consumer demand I think has been there in general, just because we're looking for cheaper substitutes for beef. And I know that a lot of people have been using pork more. And in fact, I was at a spring tailgate for Platteville and one of the moms was grilling pork chops, and I had not seen that at a tailgate before. So the demand is there and the consumers are starting to respond. And the hog market, the funds are long now and we'll see if they do any profit taking as summer goes on, or if that pork demand is just going to keep on improving.

Paul Yeager: I can't believe it. We get to talk tailgating in Market Plus now. Thanks, Naomi. See you in a bit. Okay. Thank you. And we have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue our discussion about these markets in our Market Plus segment. You can find both analysis and plus on our website of markettomarket.org. This is also the place to register for our next live event Tuesday in LeClaire, Iowa. Information about the gathering is on our website.

We also leave the email inbox open at all times - drop a line with a question, comment or picture to market to market at iowapbs.org. 

Next week, a look at the view of the overall cattle picture from the heart of the feedlot.. 

Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS. Which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years. We've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.