Market to Market - June 27, 2025

Coming up on Market to Market. Heavy rain and high heat blanket much of the country. Nitrate levels drop in Iowa waterways. Past failures in America's land promise and commodity market analysis with Dan Hueber next.

What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because a Pioneer our name is our mission.

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This is the Friday, June 27th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. The framework for a deal on rare earth exports may be done with China, but the details remain elusive. New data points on the U.S. Economy revealed more evidence for policy wonks. The economic element in sharpest focus remains inflation. The Federal Reserve's preferred reading, the PCE, recorded a 10th of a percent gain in May, the biggest movement in this report was the year over year change in the core mark, with a gain of 2.7%. Orders for aircraft helped lift durable Transportation equipment was the leader of this report. Existing home sales pushed higher by 8/10 of a percent last month. Even with rising prices and relatively high mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors say this is the slowest May since 2009. The new home market was mixed, a three year high in supply, but the slowest amount of sales in seven months. Last weekend's winds were intense in the grain belt. So was the heat. And for some in some areas, the rain. It did come in buckets. David Miller has our weather wrap.

[Narrator] Several rounds of rain struck parts of the Midwest this week. Iowa fields southwest of Des Moines were underwater as isolated rain amounts between 5 and 8in fell early in the week. Rivers were on the rise and flooding was occurring in fields as soybeans and corn were surrounded by water. More than 4.5in fell in southern Minnesota late in the week. You can see the high water moving across this waterway and field near Brownsdale, Minnesota. The weekly rainfall map shows the darkest green band extending from Nebraska to Wisconsin, revealing four inches to a foot of rain falling over the past week. Much of the area receiving rain was still in some form of drought at the start of the week. The Drought Monitor data cutoff is Tuesday morning, so rain since then were not reflected as dry conditions remain prevalent in parts of the Cornhusker State up to South Dakota and eastward toward northern Indiana. The growing season is thrown some surprises, and meteorologists have been surprised by the amount of rain in the Southern Plains and now Western Corn Belt. Weather forecasters report. Much of the Grain Belt is in a neutral period away from La Nina or El Nino.

[Eric Hunt] I think that we, to a certain degree, have gotten enough moisture to at least give this year's crop a chance. Now, we still got a good portion of summer to go, and I do think that there are some risks going forward that may look a bit more like 2020.

[Narrator] On Tuesday, more than 150 million Americans woke up to heat warnings as dozens of new record high temperatures were set. Here in New York City, Broadway was baking. Fountains provided some relief, but beaches and parks with shade were popular locations extensive. Triple digit heat led to slowdowns to infrastructure like the train system.

[Derek Bowman] Humid that. That's the worst. The humidity, the heat sucks, but the humidity is what makes you sweat and feel sticky. And I don't like it.

[Narrator] Outdoor work was slowed as construction crews in Boston navigated the harsh conditions for market to market. I'm David Miller.

[Yeager] The high rainfall totals are helping dilute a watershed under close watch for higher than normal levels of nitrates. A new study commissioned by the Polk County, Iowa Board of Supervisors is pointing to a couple of sources for the rise in pollutants in drinking water sources, and they are familiar locations where blame is often placed in this conversation. Peter Tubbs reports.

[Narrator] This week, heavy rains lowered nitrate levels in Iowa's Raccoon River, but water usage restrictions remain in place. During a tour of the testing lab at the Des Moines Water Works, staff explained how rainfall can flush excess nitrate off of farm fields and into Iowa's rivers. They also pointed out the rise in nitrate levels was coming from multiple sources. The levels vary dramatically depending on rainfall, with increases noted in locations north of Iowa's capital city.

[Lisa Morarend] We have partnered with the United States Geological Survey to put nitrate analyzers in our source water rivers. So, we have analyzers upstream of us in the raccoon River and the Des Moines River. And we watch those daily so we can see if it rains up in SAC City. We can see how that affects the nitrate levels in the river there. And then we can watch that nitrate as it moves down the river to us.

[Narrator] A study commissioned by the Polk County supervisors, the county where Central Iowa Water Works is located, is due to be released next week. A summary released to the Iowa Capital Dispatch shows agriculture is responsible for an 80% increase in nitrate levels. Aaron Lehman is president of the Iowa Farmers Union.

[Aaron Lehman] It is a very serious issue. Farmers very much want clean water, and we want to be part of the solution moving forward. But it's going to take a public farmer partnership to make a good solution.

[Narrator] For market, to market. I'm Peter Tubbs.

[Yeager] June 19th, now known as Juneteenth, marks the date in 1865 when news of emancipation for enslaved people reached those living in Galveston, Texas. But the opportunities the nation initially offered them regarding land generally didn't last. Colleen Krantz looks at the promise that played out differently. Here's our cover story.

[Narrator] This southwest Missouri farm near Ash Grove was home in the mid-1800s to Reuben Boone, an enslaved African American who initially worked the land for Nathan Boone, son of the famous Kentucky frontiersman Daniel Boone. When the Civil War ended, measures enforced by the new Freedmen's Bureau briefly allowed former slaves like Reuben to petition for Confederates abandoned or confiscated farms. In one of America's first attempts at land redistribution to formerly enslaved people. But it largely failed.

[Sean Rost] This effort to enact new laws under reconstruction begins to lose momentum and go by the wayside. By the mid-1870s.

[Narrator] The United States continues wrestling with how to address historical wrongs in agriculture without creating new inequities. The USDA's 2021 Loan Forgiveness Program for Socially disadvantaged farmers was stalled after legal complaints of reverse discrimination. In April of 1865, federal officials granted Reuben Boone's request to farm land owned by Howard Boone, one of Daniel Boone's grandsons, who was considered to be a Confederate sympathizer. In exchange, under the one-year agreement, the federal government would receive one third of his crop. Within a month, a different family asked to farm the land, but officials denied their request, citing the commitment to Reuben. It was around this time that someone wrote to federal officials to say Reuben was worthy of protection, and some of his white neighbors are trying to drive him off. The economic pressure also would have been immense, as Reuben Boone tried to run a farm that had previously survived on unpaid labor.

[Sean Rost] If you're a formerly enslaved person and you've gained your freedom, your emancipation, you have no tools. You have no animals, and you have no seed. So, in many cases, you are starting literally from scratch. You know, you have to rent from people the land you have to rent or borrow the tools or pay for them on credit, and you're already in debt in a lot of ways. And now it becomes an issue to where, you know, so much of your crop then has to be given over to pay your debts.

[Narrator] Facing these pressures, it's unclear whether Reuben gave up or was not offered an extension. He and his wife eventually moved to Saint Louis, where the 1870 census lists his occupation as farmer. Though he was likely a farmer without land after Republican President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated in April 1865, just two weeks after Reuben was granted access to the Missouri land, Andrew Johnson, a Democrat, came to power and began to undo Lincoln's post emancipation work. He effectively overrode the field order that included the 40 acre promise that was intended to give land to freed slaves.

[Sean Rost] Many former Confederates go to Johnson and kind of lobby for their return to power. The return of their rights, and he relatively quickly grants them those rights. And what you see, in some instances, especially in the Carolinas, is formerly enslaved. People who had worked on these plantations were given land. And then within the span of 18 months, you know, a year and a half, that land is taken back from them and returned back to the original slave owner.

[Narrator] Similar stories of lost opportunity played out across the country, affecting families for generations. Annette Holmes of Antioch, California, wonders how different her life might have been had her family been able to keep their land. One side of her family descends from enslaved African Americans, who were initially on a South Carolina cotton plantation, and by 1793, on a rice plantation on Butler Island in coastal Georgia. The rice mill smokestack still stands, where Holmes's ancestors likely worked.

[Annette Holmes] So, my family lived there for years until the weeping time happened when they were sold.

[Narrator] The weeping Time refers to an 1859 Savannah auction, where more than 400 enslaved people were sold. Holmes's ancestors were taken to Louisiana.

[Annette Holmes] When I first saw the list with my great great grandparents and their children, it was like, wow! Once you have a name and then they have the price next to their name for like $510, it's a different ball game when you know who it is.

[Narrator] Holmes's great grandfather, Jim Butler, later owned land in Louisiana near the Red River, but lost it in a legal battle in 1913. The lawsuit shows Butler sued a man who had offered to help him with a debt through a land lease agreement, but that man later claimed it was a purchase.

[Annette Holmes] My great grandfather argued that no, this was my land. And I think what happened because according to my grandfather, there was oil on that land. So, they found the oil. And so, Mr. Marston claimed that he knew nothing about the oil.

[Narrator] A Louisiana judge sided with Marston in Holmes's family law. It was yet another government disappointment that affected her family. She lauds USDA, however, for distributing over $2 billion to more than 43,000 black and other minority farmers in 2020. For the method, the federal government has used to address what the agency acknowledged was systemic discrimination. In more recent decades.

[Annette Holmes] There's a lot of people that, you know, why should we have to pay anything for something that we didn't do? You know, the taxpayer has to pay for it. That's why when the United States government gets it wrong, everyone should jump up and holler, because we're going to pay for it down the line some kind of way. The nation is a 250-year-old body that has to pay for its past injustices. And you are the taxpayer. It's just this purse.

[Narrator] Holmes didn't benefit and isn't waiting around for help.

[Annette Holmes] The opportunity missed is the generational wealth piece, right? Land was wealth and it is wealth. That's why immigration opened up here. The selling point is we can give you some land, right? We can give you some land that didn't really belong to you. You know, it was native land. And you can come in and live out your dream. And we miss that. And so, at this point, you know, what would you give? At this point it's like, you know, self-reparations are the key. How do we repair ourselves? And that's what I'm looking into now.

[Narrator] For market to market. I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

Next the Market to Market report.

[Yeager] The easiest path was lower this week more than ideal growing conditions and the emergence of an expanding Brazilian crop was seen alongside new lows for the year and a few contracts for the week. The nearby wheat contract lost $0.19, and the September corn contract sold off $0.14. It was the elevator down as four sessions wiped out a 40-cent gain in the soy complex. The September soybean contract fell $0.37, while August meal sold off 12 over 60 per ton. December Cotton expanded by 256 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor. July Class III milk futures declined $0.66. The livestock market was mixed. August cattle improved $0.85. August feeders gained $1.47, and the August lean hog contract cut 217. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar index took off 62 ticks. July. Crude oil gave back much of last week's gains, with a sell off of 842 per barrel. Comex gold weakened 95. 80 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell by almost 36 points to settle at five 4575. Joining us now is regular market analyst Dan Huber. Hello, Dan.

[Hueber] Hello. How are you?

[Yeager] I was all prepared to talk about oh, doom, gloom, oh doom and gloom all week in the commodities. And then Friday came along. Wheat, though. Not a good week.

[Hueber] No, no, it's certainly not a good week for any of the commodities with. But that said, it's a you know, we're that time of the year where sometimes you, you finish the end of a trend. So maybe we're going to be fortunate enough this year to maybe find a low around the 4th of July instead of a high. So, it, you know, not that we're going to need something to spark that along. Maybe USDA will do it next week. That's, you know, not that usually grain stocks or acreage is going to be a big surprise at this point. But, you know, maybe we'll get the bad news out of the way. We can talk about something else then.

[Yeager] Do you think there was a shorts, a purging of the shorts?

[Hueber] You know this and not that. It was a panic type sell off. Although some markets got a little, a little excited to here and there this week. But it does have that almost feel and look of an exhausted move. I mean we're here. The weather forecast looks great. There's no sense sticking around any longer. Get me out. And you know oftentimes that will happen towards the low in the market. So again, we'll next week we'll probably tell us a lot more. But you know we're down to levels that should be value at this point in time. You know strangely enough when you look at the corn market, we've had great demand up until this point. You know, the other thing that's a little bit unusual for this year is we've had the dollar break down to the lowest levels it's been for several years here. Now, you know, no reaction to that. So, I mean, this this market just does not want to seem to pay attention to anything. Might be positive. But you know, those things don't tend to catch up with us eventually too.

[Yeager] So almost like negative blinders on, right? Exactly. All right. Let's specifically talk wheat for a minute. If we could. Chicago and Kansas City down pretty hard right up until Friday. Is that a trend again? The exhausted trend done.

[Hueber] Well, you know, if you look at seasonals, I mean, this is actually the time of the year where the old voice from the tomb myth kind of comes into play, that around July 1st is really when you want to be long in the wheat market. So again, yes, I think we're probably looking at one of those final flushes lower. We know harvest is really just upon us or already started. Of course, in some areas. So, so yeah, you know, certainly I can't look at anything that happened this week and say, well, that was it. You know, we're ready to make the turn. But that said, a lot of this accumulation of negativeness, you know, is probably pushed us to the extreme or beyond what we should realistically for value and prices right now.

[Yeager] In corn. September was five straight days lower closes and then changed on Friday.

[Hueber] A little pop up today.

[Yeager] Again. Is this tied strictly to the safrinha situation in Brazil on this contract?

[Hueber] Well, certainly weighing on it at this point in time. I think agro consult this week said this is the mother of all safrinha crops. So, it it's here again not a shock, but maybe that final realization that you know it's here, it's upon us. Harvest is actually a little bit slow so far. I mean they have not really gotten off to a great start down there because it's been wet. So, you know, here again too, that that could upset the apple cart a little bit as well, that we're expecting this crop to really hit us at this point in time. And it's maybe going to dribble in more than come at a big rush.

[Yeager] Well, let's look at the long-term aspects of that. Gary in Wisconsin wanted to know, Dan, could the large swath of Africa, South American safrinha crop corn specifically take customers from the U.S. For longer than just a year?

[Hueber] Oh, you know, to go beyond a year, of course, it's going to really just hinge on I mean, this is just a single crop. I mean, just like just like in our crop, you know, we can't predict what this year's crop is necessarily going to do for next year. Will carryout numbers world domestic or domestic carryout numbers are not overwhelming on corn by any stretch of the imagination. Even with this big safrinha crop. So. So yeah, I don't think it's much more than a six-month kind of impact on prices.

[Yeager] So, I think you said the phrase of the dry for you here today was emerald green. Everything looked really good on that new crop. What's the new crop story right now?

[Hueber] Well, here again too, if you if you look at December corn as a whole, we're really just into support areas, you know, compared to where the December of last year found a low in August, September of last year. So, I think we're kind of at a bench. This is where we could find value. But to really turn around from this point in time, we're going to need a stimulus. Most likely that stimulus would have to come from a weather problem. Up until this point, you know, that has not materialized. So, it's but we've got we've got, you know, certainly the most critical 30 days just in front of us here. So interesting things could come about.

[Yeager] Yet it's not been real interesting in the bean market, unless you like it lower.

[Hueber] Well, you know, of course, go back a week. A week ago, we had the beans at the highest we've been since the beginning of the year. So. But that said to if you looked at the November beans got up against resistance. That stopped us really probably for the last six months. Now we've come back to what's been supporting us for the last 4 to 5 months, you know? So, I mean, it's really a market that's going nowhere. We here again too. We know that there is a very ample supply coming out of South America, Argentina, Brazil, both. You know, we're not going to be the market for soybeans at this point in time, at least for the next couple of months. So here again, if anything's going to happen positive in these markets, it's going to have to come weather related.

[Yeager] And you don't see anything from Monday's report on acreage or stocks that would contribute to that.

[Hueber] You know, the acreage, the acreage, probably not. You know, they're looking for just a touch, an increase. The trade is a touch of an increase in soybean acres, corn. They're looking pretty much the same as the March numbers here. Again, if that's the case, those are already factored into the market. Grain stocks, you know, certainly. And probably more so to corn grain stocks could have a little surprise in there. So, it on the positive side particularly on the feed usage. So, it we'll find out on Monday.

[Yeager] Why the move in cotton this week.

[Hueber] Oh, here again two. Not much more than an oversold market. We'd push down to what has been the low edge of trade here for the last 3 to 4 months. And I think the bears have said, you know, thought it was time to cash in a few chips and bring it back up. So realistically, it just brought us up to the upper side of what has been recent trading ranges too.

[Yeager] So, there's a theory in the cattle market that since there hasn't been the massive gain this week, that maybe, just maybe, that top is in.

[Hueber] Well, I think the there's a reasonable probability. Yes. That that top could be in there. You know. So again, you've had pork kind of catch up to it. So, I mean they're competing with each other pretty handily at this point in time. But the I think next week, if we do get the cattle market to bounce back up a little bit, if it's a feeble rally, then that would be a pretty strong signal that the party's over and the bulls. So.

[Yeager] Same with feeders as well.

[Hueber] Oh yes, oh yeah. Absolutely, absolutely.

[Yeager] You think the feeder picture is dramatically different than live cattle?

[Hueber] Well, one thing about feeders you've got the low input cost of, of feed. And traditionally, yes, if you get cheap corn feeder prices usually stay pretty well supported. But you can't continue to keep holding feeder prices up. If we start taking the fat market apart. So, it's I mean that's a very, very high stakes gambling game at this point in time, if you're putting cattle in the feedlot so.

[Yeager] Well in this room last week at this time, we were talking about how there were signs in that cattle on feed report that maybe there is more being held, more animals are being held back. There's more not. Things are moving forward. Do you subscribe to that theory?

[Hueber] I think so, yeah. I mean, again, it's I think this last move up, you know, not that it was totally out of line, but, you know, pushing over that $200 mark, you know, really has all the characteristics of a final push to a, you know, a record peak, which will probably be for many years to come. And it's going to take some time to kind of unwind that once we turn back down.

[Yeager] So, and you can tell people you were there and you saw it unfold.

[Hueber] There we go.

[Yeager] This hog market this week. We had the quarterly Pigs and Hogs report and surprises there.

[Hueber] No, I mean, pretty much every estimate was, you know, almost at 100%, which is pretty much what the trade was looking for. So yeah, I mean, the hog industry is, you know, six months ago we didn't have much to cheer about. But I mean, here now we're back at some pretty solid levels. So, it's decent profitability there once again. But there's never much there has not been any incentive to really expand anything at this point in time either.

[Yeager] Oh, you don't think so?

[Hueber] Oh, I don't I think there's been enough red ink over the last couple of years that it's. Yeah, it's, you know, tempered that enthusiasm to keep expanding herds.

[Yeager] So, you, are you more cautious for livestock feeder, for live cattle, for feeders, for hogs. Right now as a whole.

[Hueber] Well, on the particularly on the fed cattle market, if you're if you're feeding cattle out, I mean more than cautious. I think, you know, if you're not hedging this, you know, you're really leaving yourself out to some pretty massive losses and similar, you know, hogs, you know, I don't think that the downside maybe is could be as dramatic or the pain could be as dramatic as it would be in the cattle market. But that said, seasonally, this is when you usually see your peak in the in the hog market. I don't think this year is any different than an average year. So yeah, if you've got profitability now, now's probably the time to lock in some hedges to make sure you take that home.

[Yeager] In crude oil in 10 seconds. Is this thing done falling?

[Hueber] Well, maybe temporarily, but not over time. You know, the Saudis or I should say OPEC plus really wants to take crude back above $60 level. You know, that will temper any enthusiasm for the for the fracking industry. And that's what they want right.

[Yeager] Dan Hueber good to see you. Thank you so much for the time.

[Hueber] My pleasure. Thank you.

[Yeager] All right. You've been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment, we will continue our discussion in an online only segment. Search Market Plus with Dan Hueber. Wherever you get your podcast to hear that conversation, or go to our website of markettomarket.org. We have a way for you to find out some of the inside information on this program and what's ahead in rural America by subscribing to our Market Insider newsletter. Look in your inbox each Monday after you subscribe at Markettomarket.org. Next week, an extended discussion on the rural economy. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because a pioneer. Our name is our Mission.

Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.