Market to Market - July 18, 2025

[Paul Yeager] Coming up on Market to Market – the tariff impact starts to emerge in government reports. Permanently protecting land for agriculture’s use. And commodity market analysis with Ted Seifried, next. 

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[Announcer] This is the Friday, July 18th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[Paul Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. Consumers forged ahead on purchases after an earlier pullback on spending. Retail sales added 6/10 of a percent in June, according to the Commerce Department. Car sales drove the increase as Americans kept up spending on necessities over electronics and new appliances. The Rural Mainstreet index stayed above growth neutral for the second consecutive month, despite a slight decline this month. 4 in 10 bankers surveyed by Creighton University expect negative effects from tariffs. Wholesale prices were even with the previous month showing resilience in the tariff charged ethos. The producer Price index reflects the cost companies pay for supplies or products that they intend to sell. The Consumer price index has felt more immediately by you and me, as the prices we pay remain. The talk of the economic world. Peter Tubbs reports.

[Narrator] This week, while another round of tariffs was announced by the White House, the inflationary effects of previous tariffs have begun to appear. An announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union has leaders in Europe evaluating their options.

[Maroš Šefčovič] Practically, it prohibits the trade. So, if you're talking about 30% or 30% plus, there will be a huge impact on trade. It will be almost impossible to continue the trading as we are used in the transatlantic relationship. And if you look at the impact this would have. So, I have to say the transatlantic supply chains would be heavily affected on the both sides of Atlantic.

[Narrator] The EU is America's largest business partner and the world's wealthiest trading bloc. A full tariff war with the United States would force the economic bloc to rethink its export. Heavy economic strategy, and those who work with U.S. Farmers know the value of having options for producers and their product.

[Charles Baron] U.S. Agriculture is one of the most important exporting industries for the United States, and you look across the ag assessor, whether it's in beef, whether it's in pork, soybeans, you know, we are and you know, alfalfa just throughout the system, throughout the United States, exports are a huge part of our market. So, we absolutely need, you know, strong trading relationships and strong market access.

[Narrator] Coalition members referenced a pivot to encouraging trade within the eurozone and increasing trade with countries with friendlier trading policies. The U.S. And EU have maintained a generally cooperative trading relationship since the union was formed in 1993. The U.S. Import tariff on goods from the union averaged 1.47%, while the EU's tariffs averaged 1.35%. Analysts suspect that companies that import goods have absorbed as much of the tariff taxes as their balance sheets will support, and are now passing the tariff costs onto consumers. Under a 1962 law, the president can impose tariffs to counter a threat to national security or a trade imbalance. The consumer price index rose 3/10 of a percent in June, bringing the year-on-year increase to 2.7%, an increase from the inflation number in May. Increases in food and energy led the rise, with new tariffs scheduled for August 1st. The rising inflation numbers may keep the Federal Reserve from changing interest rates at their July meeting for market to market, I'm Peter Tubbs.

[Paul Yeager] Mark Twain once said, by land, they're not making it anymore. The most recent USDA census of Agriculture reported a loss of 20 million acres of farmland between 2017 and 2022, a loss the size of the state of Maine. Land previously on the edges of growing communities is getting turned into new residential or business developments, preserving what's still in production is difficult, but it can be done. As Colleen Bradford Krantz reports in our cover story.

[Narrator] Central Illinois Flower Farm exists thanks to a legal maneuver by landowner Dave Bishop to protect his East Peoria farm, which Santiago now rents from development pressure. Bishop, who also owns a farm near Atlanta, Illinois, couldn't bear to sell the 100 acres first purchased in 1868 by his great-great grandfather and farmed by each subsequent generation.

[Dave Bishop] It is ideal development property because you've got some trees already, as well as some flatland, so there is a lot of development interest. If you look at from the air, you will see a subdivision that is poised to attack, as well as East Peoria city limits just across the field.

[Narrator] Despite encroaching housing developments, he put off numerous interested buyers over the last 20 years.

[Dave Bishop] It's quite often likely to be double the price of farmland. Typical farmland. If the land doesn't mean anything to you, and it's just an opportunity for profit, I can see how people would do that since I have a five-generation vested interest in this land. It means something to me.

[Narrator] Five years ago, Bishop learned about agricultural conservation easements, a way to permanently protect land for agricultural use only. It meant sacrificing development potential for preservation.

[Dave Bishop] You don't do that in a knee jerk reaction type of way. If you know, because you're giving up a significant income potential. But if you do decide to proceed with it, you need to find someone who acts on your behalf in setting all this up.

[Narrator] Bishop's loss was covered by USDA and the Conservation Fund and Illinois based Prairie Lands Conservancy holds the easement. Similar groups across the nation help achieve the same goal. The nonprofit American Farmland Trust, founded in 1980, is a national leader when it comes to efforts to permanently protect farmland, especially in high development areas. The organization connects landowners to state and local land trusts and helps guide lawmakers.

[Kris Reynolds] We're losing about 2000 acres a day to development pressure, and so our approach is an organization is to is to promote farmland protection programs that are voluntary, that offer farmers and landowners the opportunity to protect that land. With an ag conservation easement, which in turn allows that land to stay in agriculture for perpetuity.

[Narrator] At the current pace of 2000 acres lost to development daily from 2001 to 2016, another 18 million acres will likely disappear by 2040, nearly the size of South Carolina. Reynolds, who is a fifth-generation farmer, worries about feeding the nation if poorly planned development continues on prime agricultural soils.

[Kris Reynolds] Those are lands that we refer to as prime, versatile and resilient because essentially there's a lot of options of what can be grown on those lands now and into the future.

[Narrator] The process of gaining an agricultural land easement involves third party land trusts, legal costs and often waiting lists. Farmland is appraised at its current value versus its value, with restrictions against development. The difference becomes the easement cost, sometimes donated by landowners, sometimes 50% covered by a land trust, and possibly the other 50% by a federal, state, or municipal program.

[Kris Reynolds] It doesn't mean that you know you're giving anybody else access to that land, but it does mean that that land is going to stay in agriculture.

[Narrator] As the value of the land is reduced by giving up development potential. The property tax burden could ease once established, protected land can still be sold, but new owners must maintain agricultural use. Currently, 30 states have agricultural easement programs, but most Midwestern states, including Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana, lack state government purchase programs. Reynolds encourages allowing for future flexibility when it comes to farming types and farming practices.

[Kris Reynolds] For the most part, you know the easement language, you know it needs to be fairly, fairly open because we don't know what agriculture might look like in 100 years. So, it doesn't need to be so restrictive that we're that we're saying that, you know, it has to be corn and soybeans produced on this farm.

[Narrator] Very little land, less than 1% nationwide, is currently protected by agricultural conservation easements. Florida, which is expecting another 10 million new residents by 2070, is using several types of legal maneuvers, including this kind of easement to try to save farmland and other green spaces.

[Tom Hoctor] Seems like the raid is at least on the order of 60,000 acres of rural land lost a year. Based on our newest estimate and Florida, the pace of development is probably faster than anywhere else in the U.S. We have really good data. Do we have the political will to get it done? There's a lot of agricultural land that we could protect. If we're proactive, we have the opportunity to do that. Them staying in agriculture is completely compatible with our long-term conservation goals.

[Narrator] As for Dave Bishop in Illinois, his children supported the idea of locking the land into agricultural uses. After several years of preparation, the assessment revealed the difference between development and agricultural values was several hundred thousand dollars.

[Dave Bishop] We used some of the easement money to repaint and work on the house, do some repairs on it. The entire roof had to be replaced on the barn and some other work done on it. The amount of money that we got from the easement was enough to keep this in shape for, you know, another 30 years. Hopefully.

[Narrator] The conservation group checks the farm annually to ensure compliance. Bishop's youngest son hopes to eventually farm the East Peoria land, which is currently rented by Santiago. The flower farmer, to serve metro area residents in the future. It's a possibility the easement helped protect.

[Dave Bishop] It's not for everybody. There is no question about that. The point for me was, I know now that this land will always be a farm.

[Narrator] For market to market. I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

[Announcer] Next, the Market to Market report.

[Paul Yeager] Questions about pollination started chipping away at the ideal growing conditions. Sentiment while harvest nears completion in the wheat belt. For the week, the nearby wheat contract added a penny. And the September corn contract rallied $0.13. Soybean oil led the charge higher in the soy complex. The September soybean contract gained $0.26, while August meal put on three. 70 per ton. December Cotton expanded by $1.26 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor. August class three milk futures improved by $0.06. The livestock market was mixed. August cattle added $1.35. August feeders cut one. 33 and the August lean hog contract, strengthened by $1.80. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar index increased 68 ticks. August crude oil declined $1.10 per barrel. Comex gold weakened 1111 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up by more than four points to settle at five 5555. Joining us now, regular market analyst Ted Seifried. Hi, Ted.

[Ted Seifried] Hi, Paul.

[Paul Yeager] You know, prior to today, we were going to talk about a negative wheat market and came today.

[Ted Seifried] Yeah.

[Paul Yeager] Is this the beginning of a change?

[Ted Seifried] Oh, I don't know. We just set a new recent low yesterday. So, one day does not make a trend, Paul. However, you know, it's really nice to see that December contract close back above 560 again. It had been holding on to that level where it had dipped below, but still managed to close above. Thursday was the exception to that. And it made you feel like, hey, we're headed back down to those lows again. But then a nice little recovery day there on Friday makes you feel a little bit better about that now. Certainly a lot of that was spurred on by the strength that we were seeing in the row crops. And it makes you wonder if wheat can sustain a standalone rally without further strength in the row crops. But who knows? I mean, we're going to talk about what's going on in the row crops here momentarily. I have a feeling.

[Paul Yeager] Well, hot and dry is the theme. That was part of the reason for the rally today in wheat, which is also the story in the other grains. Let's finish that off with wheat, though, in the sentiment. Is it too late, though? Why is this making this move with hot and dry, considering the spring or the winter crops almost out of the field?

[Ted Seifried] Yeah, I'd say by the time we get to Monday's crop progress report will be well over 70% harvested in that winter wheat crop. So, there is not an effect really there. It's about that spring wheat crop, which, you know, the USDA has a pretty lofty expectation for that spring wheat yield. Even though we look at conditions being almost 20% lower in the good to excellent category year over year. And so, you throw some hot and dry weather up at the plains. And it makes you wonder about spring wheat. But, you know, it's the smaller part of the whole. Obviously, the winter wheat crop is a much bigger crop. The biggest problem for wheat, Paul, is that you look at the USDA's domestic carryover near 900 million bushel. 900-million-bushel carryover. That is a big carryover. We can talk about some points on the global scale that are a little bit friendly for wheat, but it's hard to rally wheat prices here unless we shrink that carryover. And the only way to really do that is to say, well, we're going to get a lot more wheat exports, or we're going to use a lot more wheat for feed. And at the moment, the USDA is already expanded wheat exports. It's really tough to come up with 600-million-bushel carryover in wheat. So, an extended wheat rally is probably not in the cards unless we see a whole lot of new exports coming in, or if it's spurred along by that strength coming from corn and soybeans.

[Paul Yeager] Do you want to put air into the balloon about pollination troubles in corn, or do you want to take it out?

[Ted Seifried] You know what's funny, Paul? I feel like we find something every year, right? And part of me thinks, like, okay, you know, we don't have, you know, pictures of terribly drought-stricken crops or, and or, you know, super flooded crops. So, what are we going to find? And we're going to find some pollination issues, which we find every year. By the way. And part of me is like, wow, okay, maybe this is something that's happening on a on a much bigger scale. I'm not really sure. I'm very curious to see what happens when I go out on crop tours in about a month and see what I see with my own eyes. But I also find it kind of funny that we are talking about pollination issues. But in the same breath, we're talking about a forecast two weeks from now causing pollination problems. Now I realize it is a big growing area, but on my way here yesterday and today, Paul, I mean, every field that I'm driving past is pollinating. And this is in northern Illinois and driving through central Iowa. So, two weeks from now, are we pollinating corn? No, we'll be done by then. Right. So that is the most threatening short term forecast we've seen since we started this growing season. But it is not happening at a time where we're going through the thick of pollination. And so, yeah, I don't know, it's tough to tell. I feel like every year we find something and you wonder if that these pollination issues that you're seeing across social media is just the this year's iteration of, oh, here's a problem.

[Paul Yeager] Do you find, I guess, on this? Let's continue on the new crop discussion. Is this enough to prompt any sales?

[Ted Seifried] The 23-cent rally we had off the low that we put in on Monday, is that enough to prompt any sales? Well, hopefully you had some resting orders $0.20 higher to get some sales done. I do really think that that would have been a really good thing to do. I think you should be making sales. I think even if this weekend you might call in and make some sales because this is what we do in the summertime, we find something and this is the right time of the summer to do it. We find something that gives us this rally, but we could walk in Sunday night and Monday and look at that two-week forecast. That's now progressed a little bit further into the future, showing us returning to more normal temperatures and more normal precip. And if that's the case, a lot of the strength has just been short lived. Could be short lived. I'm also going to say that from a technical standpoint, we hit our objectives to the upside that I had for just a technical bounce. That technical bounce was sparked by weather concerns, but I feel pretty strongly that I think we should have been making sales on this 23-cent bounce in corn off that low that we just scored on Monday, and it was about a 43-cent bounce in November. Beans that we put that low in, I think on Tuesday. Not contract low but recent low at $10. Even. Again, I think a good opportunity to make at least some sales.

[Paul Yeager] I said in the open to soybeans that it was oil that was driving, that was weather at all at play in soybeans.

[Ted Seifried] Yeah, in soybean oil did cool off a little bit on Friday, but that was after six consecutive higher closes. But yeah, soybeans. So, the weather for soybeans is a little bit different. Obviously we're not talking about soybean going soybeans going through pods that are the most moisture sensitive time frame for them. And soybeans deal with heat differently than corn does. Soybeans grow very well in tropical areas, so heat's not as big of a problem. The way that we were looking at weather for soybeans was, hey, is this a change in the weather pattern? Is this something where we're going to start seeing these ridges build and stick around with high temps and lack of precipitation into the month of August? More importantly, or to get to the point, Paul, is this a repeat of last year? And if this is a repeat of last year, that would significantly cut into soybean production and therefore, yes, we have a concern about weather for soybeans. So those specific forecasts I don't think were what the market was terribly concerned about. It's whether those forecasts are indicative of what's to come through the month of August and into September. Honestly, Paul, I don't think it is indicative of what's to come. This is something that happens during the summertime where we have these ridges build and then subside and come in and out. But the market is a little bit more nervous about that this week than it was last week.

[Paul Yeager] The chart that was on while you were speaking showed a lot more volatility here has returned. Do you see that continuing for the near term?

[Ted Seifried] Look it's a weather market. And we're sitting here in the middle of July. This should be when we have that volatility. Because you know our crop hopes and our thoughts and our market thoughts. You know they hinge on every single forecast we look at. So, this is the time of year for that volatility. It's very normal I'd say last year was the exception where we got hot and dry at the end of the year. And we didn't have that big reaction. At least we didn't have that reaction until January and February, when the USDA did finally reflect that. On their production numbers. I think the market looks at last year and say, hey, we really should have rallied into August and September, October. And so, we've got this heightened sense of, of that, this year. So that volatility, I think is, is kind of indicative of the overall climate in the time of year. But I don't know if that necessarily means like, hey, we're trying to carve out a bottom here again. That's all going to depend on what the weather forecast looks like.

[Paul Yeager] Let's have Glenn's question in Ohio put a bow on this. You've kind of answered part of it already, but this one came to us via X. What could potentially happen first or have the greatest impact on prices. Increased demand increase, decreased supply, a change in government policy or a black swan event? You really talked about weather, but what about those other factors?

[Ted Seifried] Right? Hi, Glenn. Yeah. You know, right now the market's focus is weather. And I'm not going to go into that further. You don't want me to you know, the other big one for soybeans would be a trade deal with China. And I say for soybeans because it doesn't feel like China would buy corn unless they absolutely had to. They're not buying corn from Brazil, which is a reflection of what we already thought. And that is the Chinese corn crop is really very good. So oh, and by the way, I do really feel like the Chinese want to protect their corn relationship with Brazil, even more so than the soybean relationship right now, because it's a new relationship. So, I think if the Chinese were to buy any corn, it would happen from Brazil. That Brazilian second season crop is a lot bigger than what anybody was thinking. And what the USDA is currently saying. So, a trade deal with China and a ceremonial or a token purchase of a lot of U.S. Soybeans would be the next best thing compared to a big supply crunch. But I don't know if that will happen or not. I mean, the Chinese have not explicitly bought anything for new crop soybeans yet. It's a growing concern. There were rumors earlier in the week that China was around looking for something. We had that flash sale of 120,000 to unknown destinations for new crop that a lot of people are speculating was China. So maybe they're starting to come back. But it's that time of year where we should expect to see that.

[Paul Yeager] Let's talk about live cattle for a moment. Box beef prices were falling a little bit this week. There's still a gain for the week, but I have to ask it again, indicative of maybe the end.

[Ted Seifried] Maybe, you know, Paul, it is that time of year where we see the seasonally box beef prices come down. It's a function of, you know, for us in the northern states, we spend all winter wishing we could be out grilling, and then the weather gets nice and we go out and our enthusiasm is through the roof every day, sometimes twice or three times a day. We're outside grilling. We do that into the Fourth of July holiday weekend. But then, you know, shortly after that, we kind of lose a little bit of that enthusiasm and kind of slow down a little bit into what's called the summer doldrums. And then that ramps back up heading into the Labor Day holiday. So seasonally, this is the time where we would see a little bit of a break in those box beef prices and seasonally, that also a lot of times correlates in a little bit of a break into the futures market as well. So, I think we could see something like that. But the underlying tight supply situation has not changed. And there's a lot of policy things that are continuing to keep that tight. So, unless there is a big change in consumer's habits and I'm talking about something more than just a seasonal slowdown, I really see a hard it's a it's a hard path for a big break in the cattle complex. However, that could happen if you get a big break in the stock market. If there's concerns about the global and domestic economies, again, if that all comes back, then you might see people get a little bit more conscious of their spending habits. That would create a bigger and deeper break in the cattle market. But it's been very hard to predict that sort of thing. A lot of people have been calling for a big break in the stock market, and it just hasn't happened.

[Paul Yeager] Ted, we'll get your thoughts on hogs and feeders in Market Plus in a moment. Thank you, sir.

[Ted Seifried] Hey. Thanks, Paul. Thanks for having me.

[Paul Yeager] All right. Good to have you here. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment, we will continue our discussion. As we mentioned, feeders and hogs. We'll cover that in your questions as well. In that online segment, search Market Plus with Ted Seifried. Wherever you get your podcast to hear that conversation, or go on to our website at markettomarket.org. This week on our YouTube channel, it was a step back in time to 1985 for a classic episode of this program. Subscribe to find out what Retro program will put up next when you go to YouTube.com, Market to Market. Next week, a look at a simple strategy to lower temperatures and open up miles of new habitat. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

[Announcer] Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

[Announcer] What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because a Pioneer our name is our mission.

Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.