Market to Market - July 25, 2025

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Coming up on Market to Market. As the August 1st tariff deadline looms, more trade deals emerge. Farm groups go to the hill as farm state lawmakers take another run at prop 12. Finding a simple strategy to lower water temperatures and open up new habitats. And commodity market analysis with Naomi Blohm next.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer, our name is our mission.

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Announcer: This is the Friday, July 25th edition of Market to Market, the weekly journal of Rural America.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Hello, I'm Brooke Kohlsdorf, Paul Yeager is on assignment. Whether it's tariffs or an unclear future, a few indicators are pointing downward. Existing home sales fell 2.9% last month, as higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty put the brakes on buying. Orders for durable goods tumbled 9.3% on a sharp reduction in purchases in the transportation sector. Once orders for airplanes and cars are taken out, the index rose 2/10 of 1%.

Trade and reorganization were all part of the program in D.C. this week, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rawlins announced that she was reorganizing USDA and relocating 2600 employees to five hubs across the country. Ranking members of the House and Senate Agriculture committees were unhappy the secretary acted without consulting them and called for hearings. 

That reorganization comes as the August 1st tariff deadline is one week away. Deals with Indonesia and the Philippines have been established, but no details as of yet. David Miller has more.

David Miller: This week, a trade framework was established with Japan, America's number four trading partner. Imports to the U.S. will be charged a 15% tariff on all goods, ten points lower than the threatened 25%. The deal has U.S. automakers concerned because completed Japanese cars will be charged a lower duty while they pay a 50% duty on imported raw materials like steel and aluminum. Federal government data shows 7% of all U.S. agricultural exports, valued at almost $17 billion, are purchased by Japan. Trade talks with China continue as an August 12th deadline looms. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the deadline will likely be extended. Australia has reduced restrictions on U.S. beef imports that President Trump called a ban. Aussie officials say it was a way to keep bovine spongiform encephalopathy out of the Australian market. For Market to Market, I'm David Miller.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Proposition 12, the controversial measure requiring pork sold in California to come from hogs raised with more barn real estate is again facing scrutiny. Before the U.S. House went on its summer recess. Iowa Congresswoman Ashley Hinson introduced the Save Our Bacon Act. The measure, if adopted, will prohibit state and local governments from interfering with the production of livestock in other states. On the same day, agricultural lobbyists appeared at a hearing in Washington to provide insight on the effect prop 12 has had on hog producers. Peter Tubbs reports.

This week, the House Agriculture Committee heard testimony about the difficulties the pork industry is experiencing in the wake of California’s Proposition 12.

The largest concern for the industry is for a potential patchwork of laws across the country that pork producers would have to account for when making decisions.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Nebraska: “Are we at risk of having 50 state standards that people have to comply with?”

Travis Cushman, American Farm Bureau Federation: “Yes we are. That was one of the biggest concerns the American Farm Bureau had about this law, and one of the reasons we decided to sue California on it. Currently, we run the risk of states constantly moving the goalposts on what farmers need to do. So they have to make those investments, they, they have it changed again. The risk of states enacting a patchwork of legislation like that, it is kind of bucking up the system that is that threat of creating this kind of Covid like disruptions. We saw the food supply system, and we are very, very concerned about that.

Rep. Shontel Brown, D-Ohio: “And Miss Lashmet, your testimony also mentions the investment that many farmers have made to be in compliance with, being early compliance with prop 12. Do you have anything to add about what that impact might be on those farmers?

Tiffany Dowell Lashmet, Texas A&M: “...none of the buildings would require those farmers to convert back to the systems that they were under pre prop 12. That may overlook the cost that they've already spent in making those changes in the first place. Right. So they have already made those changes. They've got those sunk costs. And I think that that's a point that they frequently raise both in lawsuits, and otherwise when they're looking at those costs that they've already spent them. So even if there's no requirement that they go back in the law, they will have to analyze whether that's something that they want to do and more cost I'd want to incur.

Humane World For Animals, formerly known as The Humane Society of the U.S., which helped author Proposition 12 in 2018, had this comment after the hearing:

“We are here because the pork industry has lost its argument again and again in court and now wants a federal legislative bailout. This effort, led largely by a backwards-facing segment of Big Pork and a few lawmakers, would erase the will of voters across the country and punish farmers who’ve already adapted to meet consumer demand for more humane products.” 

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: According to Army Corps of Engineers data, there are more than 92,000 dams in the United States. The average age of those concrete or earthen structures is 63 years. Only 3% of those dams produce power, and most of the rest are being used for flood control with the side benefit of recreation. But there is a movement to remove some of those dams. Laura Weber Davis, from our friends at Great Lakes now has the details in our Cover Story.

Located on a tributary of the Kalamazoo River near Allegan, Michigan, the Swan Creek Dam helps manage water flow and provides residents with recreational opportunities such as fishing and kayaking. But this dam is coming down because the Department of Natural Resources wants the river to be colder. Fish biologist Matt Diana explains why it's a necessary step.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “Cold water streams in Michigan are imperiled because of global climate change. We're seeing, we've already seen in the last decade over a two degree increase in water temperatures. When there's impoundments on the system that just exacerbates the issues.”

An impoundment is the artificial lake that forms behind a dam. As river water backs up, the sun can heat the water in an impoundment more than it would heat a flowing river and the effect can be surprisingly large.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “They're creating water temperature warming, in addition to what global climate change is causing. Our monitoring here shows it heats it up about 10 degrees.”

That's enough heat to cause some major stress for certain species of the Great Lakes region, especially for trout.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “So as the waters warm, we're starting to lose more and more trout. We use a threshold of 68 degrees for trout survival. Above that temperature they don't grow well and they don't survive well.”

And that's not the only trouble dams cause.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “There's a number of different impacts that dams have on river systems. The most obvious one is fish migration. In the Great Lakes,  we have a lot of fish that rely on river migrations. All salmon and steelhead, lake sturgeon, which are a threatened species. We're seeing lake whitefish have really important migrations in the streams. You know, so if a dam is in place that limits the migration, that limits the habitat that's available to them.”

Dams also block downstream movement of sediment which can deprive the downstream river system of an essential ingredient needed for fish habitats. 

On top of this, many dams around the Great Lakes region have another problem. They're old. In some cases, they've outlived their usefulness and they're expensive to maintain. Swan Creek checks both of those boxes.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “This particular dam was built in 1937. A lot of dams were built around the early 1800s, mid 1900s, and then a lot of hydro dams were built, associated with kind of World War II. All of those dams are old. The concrete used, the construction used are usually 50-year type construction. So most of them are past their living lifespan.They're either requiring maintenance or constant, kind of Band-Aid fixes in order to keep them in place.”

The hefty cost of maintenance and repairs deters some from taking action. But ignoring aging dams presents enormous risks. When older dams aren't maintained, a breach or a total failure can occur, and that can spell disaster to the surrounding area.

Lynn Coleman: “There it goes. There it goes.”

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “Midland, Michigan is a good example of a dam failure and the kind of impacts that are that happen when a dam fails.”

Gayle King, CBS Mornings: “Breaking news coming from Michigan this morning.” 

The 2020 failure of the Edenville and Sanford dams in Midland resulted in over $250 million in property damage and extensive harm to the fishery. To help prevent disasters of this scale and defend against climate change, a wave of dam removal projects is happening right now in Michigan and across the U.S..

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “As these dams age, they're really not serving a purpose other than creating an impoundment. And, so we're looking at opportunities with these dams instead of repairing them. There's a lot of money out there to do things like removals, through grant programs and state funded programs to try and improve fish habitat.”

A recent influx of state and federal money allows the DNR to remove more dams than previously financially possible. The DNR prioritizes dam removals in a number of different ways.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “One way we prioritize it is by the risk of the existing dam. Dams are rated as high to low risk based on what would happen if they failed. So a dam in a city might be more high risk because if it failed, it could flood houses and even cause loss of life. So those become high priority dams from a safety aspect.”

The DNR prioritizes low risk dams based on how big of a boost the fishery will get from removing them.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: So one factor that we use is how many miles of stream is a dam blocking off from fish migration? So in this case, we could remove a dam and, and open up 40 miles of stream that fish moving upstream couldn't access in the past.”

Twenty miles upstream of the Swan Creek Dam,  is where the Otsego Township Dam was removed in 2016 returning this stretch of the Kalamazoo River to its natural state. 

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “This dam was removed because it was failing and because it had contaminated sediments behind it. So if it failed, we would have had contaminant sediments go downstream.”

Since removal of the dam. Researchers from Western Michigan University routinely monitor the area. 

Though their fieldwork isn't complete, the team has seen a clear shift in the types of species present in the water since the dam was removed.

Sara Diller, Ph.D. Student Western Michigan University: “We see a lot more species we typically see in a river. they're more adapted to riverine conditions, whereas where the dams are in place, we see species that are more adapted to lake-like conditions and where the dams have been taken out, we see more sensitive species. They're intolerant to pollution but where the dam is still in place, we see species that are more pollution tolerant.”

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: "We've seen a shift from lake-like fish populations. So things like common carp, largemouth bass, bluegill to more riverine and are what we call lowdic systems, where it's smallmouth bass as pike, which are neonative and more appropriate for a river ecosystem."

And that's good news for the fishery.

Matt Diana – Senior Fisheries Biologist, Michigan Department of Natural Resources: “The kind of information that Western Michigan is collecting here is really valuable to US fisheries managers. We take this kind of information and we use it in order to evaluate these projects and see if there's any need for additional, restoration. My ultimate goal with these projects is to see the river look as natural as it did before the dam was here, restore the fish habitat and really create better fisheries for the public in Michigan.”

Announcer: Next, the Market to Market report.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: For the week…  The nearby wheat contract lost 8 cents and the September corn contract fell 9 cents. Good weather made it hard for soybeans to rally.  The September soybean contract dropped 19 cents while August meal dropped $6.20 per ton. December cotton contracted 45 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, August Class Three milk futures declined 62 cents. The livestock market was mixed. October cattle added $3.32. September feeders put on $8 and the October lean hog contract cut 3 cents. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index lost 70 ticks. September crude oil declined 87 cents per barrel. COMEX gold weakened $19.90 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down by more than 7 points to settle at 548 - 20. Brooke Kohlsdorf: Joining us now is regular market analyst Naomi Blohm. Hi, Naomi. 

Naomi Blohm: Hi. Thanks for having me.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Yeah, thanks for traveling to us this week. So there hasn't been a lot of fresh news this week. Particularly with the the grain markets. They've been down just kind of holding steady. Is the trade waiting for a weather story with wheat?

Naomi Blohm: Yes, indeed. So for the wheat market this week, what we've been continuing to hear is that the weather in the southern hemisphere is going just fine. And so the southern hemisphere is growing a tremendous wheat crop to keep global supply sufficient. Now, here at home, the North Dakota wheat tour occurred. And they pegged the the North Dakota wheat crop at about 49 bushels overall for an average, which is down ten bushels from the current USDA numbers. So that's something to watch going forward. But right now, the market just continues to be stuck on the notion of good enough supply where we need it, when we need it. But the one bright note for wheat right now is that our U.S. exports are running ahead of schedule for wheat. And we are so competitively priced in the world that we are considered cheaper. And that's been a big, big leading factor for the increase in wheat exports that we've seen so far. So that's the one bright note. December Chicago wheat has support at $5.50. So that's what we're going to be watching next week to see if that value can hold.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Okay. So see if it will go up next week.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah that's what we watch. Or maybe just see some more sideways range trade in about a 25 cent trading range okay.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: With corn usually this time of year we're talking about heat damage. Lack of rain. It's so hot. And this year it's kind of been different. We've had too much rain in some parts of the country, and there's possibly been some damage we don't know yet. So are we waiting with corn to hear about yields?

Naomi Blohm: Yes, that's exactly what's happening. 74% of our nation's crop, though, is rated good to excellent. And in historical years, when we see a good to excellent category that strong, it really does indicate trendline yield or potentially higher. So if the yield comes out a trend line that would be $1.81. And that would be actually a supportive story because corn demand is so strong that carry out for new crop would be 1.6 billion bushels. But right now the market is thinking that the yield is probably more like $1.83 or $1.84. And if it gets to that point, well, then we've got corn carryout that goes closer to 2 billion bushels. So we are hearing whispers of corn rust. And so that's like a fungus that the market might need to be aware of because that can zap yield. And of course, there's other pollination issues with some of the hybrids that were out there. And so we're we're waiting a few more weeks to know if there's a bigger issue with some of that pollination or not. So when we get into those crop tours in a few weeks, I think we'll have a better idea. But also globally, I think a lot of end users are waiting to see where that yield ends up, because if it is a number like $1.84 or $1.85, then they're going to be able to buy corn so much cheaper, you know, with a $3 handle and a $4 support breaks on the December contract.

The downside points to $3.75, but if we do get some indications that the yield is closer to $1.81, then we'll I think we'll see a harvest low sooner than later coming in August. So waiting on better yield is where we're at.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: And that's usually you said a couple of weeks maybe.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. About three weeks is when we'll start to do some of the crop tours, and then there'll be boots on the ground. Now something to keep in mind is that the USDA WASDE report in August is the first report where they start to adjust yield. So I'm concerned that with a good to excellent category being so good that we might see the market increase yield, the USDA increase yield. And then and that might weigh on prices. So that's just something to be aware of. And that's August 12th.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: With soybeans right now we're waiting on China to buy. If they don't buy soon are they going to be waiting for a while then before they buy. Meaning they're buying from someone else?

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So that's that's the big question. So we're going to actually see have one of our U.S. representatives meeting with Chinese officials in Sweden early next week, and they're going to try to start to do some more trade negotiations before their August 12th date. Also, the same day as that USDA report. And I feel like China might be waiting to see what our yield is going to be if there's risk that our yield maybe for soybeans isn't as strong, I think that they might come in and buy beans early, because then, of course, if we have a less than stellar crop here, that would be a reason for prices to go up. So China would want to get in ahead of that price increase. But if we go into August with good weather and if the perception is that the yield is bigger than the current USDA, 5253, then that would be a reason for prices to work lower in November. Beans right now have really good support at the $10 area, but we are very behind on our export sales. Right now, we're only at 5% of USDA projections, and normally we're about 15% sold to where we think we're going to be. We still are looking to have exports at 1.75 billion bushels. And that's a it's a big number. It's a little bit less than last year. But we really do need China to show up soon to meet some of that demand.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: You said this was a big week in the dairy world.

Naomi Blohm: Yes. We had a milk production report that showed that milk production is really fantastic. Larger than anticipated. The milk production report was up 3.3% year over year. And in the milk world, when you have a 1% production increase, that's considered a big deal. So a 3.3% increase was just, sent the markets a lot lower just a few weeks ago. Well, late June, we had the milk prices for class three milk up at $20, and now it's down to $17 because we've had two different milk production reports that showed increases of supply. So it's not only it's we have more cows that are milking and each cow is producing more milk. So the combination factor is what's weighing on the class three milk prices right now. But the good news is that cheese demand overall is strong domestically. And our dairy exports are pretty good overall. It's just we have a lot of milk right now to be working through. So I'm curious in the future if some of the older cows that are milking might, go to market sooner than later to try to help alleviate the situation? But we'll see if $17 milk can hold for the class markets next week.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: So the cattle on feed report came out just a few minutes ago, as a matter of fact, and you were kind of sifting through it. What was in it that caught your eye?

Naomi Blohm: Well, it was bullish. You know. And just when you think that this market can't get any friendlier, we have a report that had, the on feed number at 98%, the placement number at 92%, the market odd number at 95%. And all of those numbers were lower than the average guess. All of those numbers were lower than the lower end of the guesstimate range. So it continues to be a friendly story in terms of the lack of supply. So I'm not quite sure you know what this means for the market because this would be fresh news. Do we see the market, you know, continue to work higher as it has been, or where is the point where we start to see maybe the consumer cry, uncle, because prices are so high.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: That kind of leads me into the next question that we are taking from social media. And this was from Cannady Farms in Oklahoma, and he's asking, is the beef market in tune with fuel markets? Consumers used to think $3 gas was outrageous. Well, now it's the norm. Is the beef consumer just buying beef at these prices because they see it as the new normal?

Naomi Blohm: Yeah. So ground beef for sure. And the question is so important. And there was an article that was written this week that actually talked about this. So what has happened is that, the normal, like any American right now, their wages have been steadily increasing over the past five years. And so the wages have been increasing faster than what the beef price has been rallying. So the consumer is still buying the ground beef. We're still having okay exports. And so the demand is strong. So at what point the consumer starts to walk away. I'm not sure because as you know, in 2014, I was convinced that the consumer would stop buying ground beef, but they didn't. The demand stayed so strong because, there's just really not a good substitute for it. So that's what we're going to see. And I think as long as Americans are working, we haven't had a lot of big new rounds of layoffs that they're going to be able to continue to buy the hamburger, buy the ground beef. But it is remarkable that people are still paying, you know, higher prices at the pump. They're paying higher prices for the proteins. But protein is so in right now from a nutritional standpoint. The keto diets are so strong. You talked to a lot of, just folks throughout the Midwest and in America, and they're trying to do whatever they can to get more protein intake. And definitely beef is high on the list.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: That's an interesting, interesting observation for sure. Okay. I think we have about 30s left, so we have time for the other protein, the white meat. What about the pork? Markets right now. Yeah.

Naomi Blohm: So pork market had a nice two week rally, but the overall trend is still lower since June. The, futures market is trading at a discount to cash. And what we're seeing is that our exports are a little bit less, their bond behind about 4% from a year ago. So we've had that big rally up. The correction has happened, and now we're going to be waiting to see in the coming weeks, you know, where our export demand is going to be. And domestic demand as we start to get back into tailgate season, who is going to be grilling what at those tailgates. Yeah. So yeah. Yeah. So that's what we'll be keeping an eye on. But the pork story I think still supportive overall.

Brooke Kohlsdorf: Okay. Thanks. Naomi we'll continue this conversation a little later. So you've been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we'll continue our discussion in an online segment. Only you can search Market Plus with Naomi Blohm. Wherever you get your podcast to hear that conversation or go to our website of markettomarket.org this week on our YouTube channel. It was a step back in time to 1990 for a classic episode of this program. Subscribe to find out what retro program we put up next week when you go to YouTube.com/markettomarket. Next week how rural communities are keeping tabs on decision makers while connecting readers. Thanks so much for watching. Have a great week!

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer our name is our mission.

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage, and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Announcer: Tomorrow. For over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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