Market to Market - August 15, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market. The tariff truce with China gets a second extension well before the hammer drops. A look at the last ten years of this show as our 50th season comes to a close. And commodity market analysis with Mark gold next.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next. Because at Pioneer our name is our Mission.

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Announcer: Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Announcer: This is the Friday, August 15th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

Yeager: Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. The effect of the tariffs on imported products are beginning to show in several economic indices. Two measures of the economy are showing an inflation rate higher than the Fed would like to see. Retail sales climbed 0.5% in July but the increase may be influenced partly by higher prices brought on by higher tariffs.

A jump in prices paid at the wholesale level last month surprised economists with 0.9% increase - the largest move in three years. The annual rate hit 3.3%, again above expectations.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% on a combination of higher prices for dining out and slightly lower gasoline prices. The year-over-year rate moved up 2.7% - the Fed prefers a 2% inflation rate.

According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average import tariff is 18.6%. You’re already paying a 50% duty for Brazilian coffee and may pay that rate for pharmaceuticals from India if a trade deal isn’t reached by August 27. 

In rural America, farmers and manufacturers are still working out how to plan for the future. 

Peter Tubbs has more. 

This week, President Trump, again, delayed raising tariffs on China for another 90 days. The current tariff on imports of most Chinese goods stands at 10%. Tariffs on imports from dozens of other countries also went into effect.

Last week, during an appearance at the Iowa State Fair, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reminded farmers of the litany of trade announcements the White House has made in the last month.

Sec. Brooke Rollins, USDA: “Of course, very significant to this incredible state are the trade deals that keep coming and coming and coming, whether it is the UK, the EU, South Korea, Pakistan, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, just as a few examples, the next round of deals will be announced in the coming week, ushering in a golden age for America.”

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig believes the tariffs are assisting the trade negotiation process.

Sec. Mike Naig, Iowa Department of Agriculture: “You know, and they're negotiating all over the place. So I do think this is going to continue to take some time. But we also stressed both to the Secretary and to the Undersecretary that there's a real urgency to this profitability and price. Peace and trade is one component of that. But we got to keep, we got to keep the wheels moving.”

Aaron Lehman of the Iowa Farmers Union is concerned about farmers ability to market commodities in an uncertain trade environment.

Aaron Lehman, President, Iowa Farmers Union: “ Now, we've got issues to work through. We've always had we and we will continue to work for fairer trade, something that makes more sense for farmers in the field and in their pasture, as opposed to just numbers. We want it to make a real difference for farmers. But this approach isn't getting us there, and there's a lot of uncertainty right now.”

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs

Yeager: On October 24, 1975, Iowa Farm Digest had its first broadcast. The following year, the show began national syndication as Farm Digest. 

Fifty seasons later, we still adhere to the same reporting principles that have been in place for five decades. As near as we can tell, we remain the longest running nationally syndicated program of this kind on public television.

In our final installment of retrospectives for Market to Market, David Miller looks back at the most recent 10 years of this show in our Cover Story.

Mike Pearon, former host of Market to Market: “Hello, I’m Mike Pearson”

David Miller: In 2016, farmers were facing the third year of declining profits. As a way to help unlock more export potential for U.S. producers, President Barack Obama signed The Transpacific Partnership. The deal was designed to allow 12 countries that touch the Pacific Ocean to lower trade barriers. The pact, which shut out China, met with defeat as the Senate refused to bring the measure up for a vote. 

The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers temporarily halted construction of the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline project. The last mile of the oil pipeline was eventually connected in 2017. 

As the year rolled over, we were following the next phase of the 2015 nitrate pollution lawsuit between the Des Moines Water Works and several Iowa agricultural drainage districts. The Iowa Supreme Court ruled the drainage districts had immunity from the charges under state law. A federal court threw out the case and ended DMWW’s pursuit of a win. 

President Donald Trump slapped a 20% tariff on Canadian lumber. He was hoping the tactic would open the taps for U.S. dairy producers trying to do business with the nation’s number two trading partner. The trade skirmish eventually led to Trump abandoning the 24-year old North American Free Trade Agreement and the start of negotiations on the United States Mexico Canada Agreement. The USMCA was eventually adopted and went into effect in the middle of 2020.

Our coverage in 2018 began with an indepth report on how the opioid epidemic had hit the entire U.S. including rural America.

Delaney Howell became the first female host of the show.

Delaney Howell, former host of Market to Market: “Hello, I’m Delaney Howell.”

It was also the year that President Trump began a trade war with China. The war escalated to the point where everything traded between the planet’s number one and number two economies had a tariff on it. Soybean exports to China plummeted to nothing and farmers were hit hard. The government stepped in and gave qualified producers a slice of a $23 billion pie in the form of two Market Facilitation Payments. Under the terms China would increase imports of U.S. agricultural products to $40 billion over two years. 

The biotechnology giant Bayer was sued over the alleged connection between cancer and the use of its signature weed killer Roundup. A jury awarded the plaintiff $289 million. 

Getting the 2018 Farm Bill over the finish line was in doubt. The measure was signed in the waning days of December just before the federal government went into a partial shutdown. 

African Swine Fever was front of mind in 2019. So much so that the National Pork Producers Council cancelled the World Pork Expo over concern international visitors might bring the deadly disease into the U.S.

In March of 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. The spread of the virus altered everything from how we interacted to how we did business. 

Eventually, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act. The CARES Act distributed more than $2 trillion to nearly every person and business in America.

It was also the year Paul Yeager became the fifth full-time host of this program. 

Just after 2021 began, President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan into law. Valued at more than $1.9 trillion, the measure provided funds for almost every segment of society.

That year, the Supreme Court rejected another challenge by agricultural lobbying groups to strike down Proposition 12, the California law requiring more space for sows, egglaying chickens and veal calves. Prop 12 went into effect on January 1st, 2022.

H5N1, more commonly known as Bird Flu, came in with 2022 after a two year hiatus.  

In February of 2022, Russia rolled into Ukraine starting a war that pushed the wheat market higher over uncertainty of the crops fate. 

The drought tightened its grip on Texas and nearly all of the state’s 254 counties were declared disaster areas. Cattle producers who were losing money culled their herds. Orders at auctions were often filled quickly, forcing them to hold the excess inventory.

By 2023, negotiations were underway for a new Farm Bill but to no avail and the 2018 Farm Bill was extended for another year. The same thing would happen again in 2024. 

Officials with the Navigator CO2 and Summit Carbon Solutions pipelines, two hotly debated projects, were laying the groundwork to establish pathways from the five major ethanol producing states to hubs in Illinois and North Dakota. Both wanted to use eminent domain if necessary to pave the way forward. A raft of state regulations along those routes pushed Navigator out. Summit has continued its work on the project. 

A three year old dispute over Mexico blocking the import of GMO corn resulted in the U.S. asking for a dispute settlement panel to be assembled in accordance with the USMCA. 

Early in the Spring of 2024, Bird Flu was found in the dairy herd. Forty-one people contracted the virus due to exposure to the infected cows. 

As we rolled into 2025, President Trump started another trade war only this time it was with every country in the world. 

Deportations of undocumented agricultural workers created a labor gap during harvest. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, the second woman to head up the USDA, offered a way to fill that gap.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins: “there are 34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program. There are plenty of workers in America.”

As our 50th season came to a close, we reported on a study placing increased nitrate levels in the drinking water supply of Iowa’s capitol city directly at agriculture's feet. 

David Miller, Executive Producer, 2015-Present: “When I sit there and I think about the legacy of this program, I think ‘wow, look at what we have done as a group over the past 50 seasons.’ And we’ve all had over time, the same ideas of walking the center, making sure everybody gets both sides of the issue and allowing the viewer to decide what comes next for them.”

And through it all we talked prices, prices and prices with the likes of Ted Seifried, Kristi Van Ahn Kjeseth, Ross Baldwin and John Roach. 

For Market to Market, I’m David Miller

Announcer: Next, the Market to Market report.

Yeager: This week's WASDE was a mixed bag bearish for coarse grains but bullish for oilseeds. As USDA reported a higher corn yield and fewer soybean acres. The nearby wheat contract fell $0.08, and the September corn contract added a penny. Fewer soybean acres were reported by USDA, and a smaller stocks number gave a boost to the soy complex. The nearby wheat contract fell 8 cents and the September corn contract added a penny.  

Fewer soybean acres were reported by USDA and a smaller stocks number gave a boost to the soy complex. 

The September soybean contract added 55 cents, while September meal improved $6.80 per ton.

December cotton expanded by 94 cents per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, September Class Three milk futures declined a quarter.

The livestock market was mixed. October cattle added $4.67. September feeders put on $6.97 and the October lean hog contract fell 58 cents. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index dropped by 31 ticks. 

September crude oil lost 98 cents per barrel. 

COMEX gold decreased $78.30 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down by more than 3 points to settle at 535 - 85.

Joining us now, regular market analyst Mark gold. Hi, Mark.

Mark Gold: Paul. Nice to be here again.

Yeager: Well, is it nice given this week? I mean, the mud, the names being thrown around for these markets are things we cannot say on television.

Gold: No we can't.

Yeager: Let's start with the thing that hasn't been positive for a long time. And that's the wheat market. It just seems to be, no matter what is said, grown, sold to, ‘catch a falling knife’ was the term I saw emerge again this week? Is that the. Is that the case?

Gold: Well, it's been pretty tough. We can't get rid of it. The dollar's been still relatively strong. It's backed off. We were over 100 points the other day. We're back down to 97.5 roughly. So that helps. The old low was 96. We needed under 96 again to take a shot at 90. And that could really help the wheat market out here. But when you look at who's growing wheat all over the world, the big surpluses, big crops, it's hard to make any inroads into that.

Yeager: And that's, there's a couple of questions that came in asking, you know, we had a look at more acres, but it's like we didn't plant as much wheat this year. What if we would have and what if we will next year. So do you think this is no condition to expand next year? Is it?

Gold: I don't see that right now. I think you've got to wait till the overall environment changes a little bit. You know, if we could get India to come on board and buy some wheat from us instead of Russia, that would certainly be helpful. But we don't really see, you know, a whole lot there that's going to turn this market around unless there's a major weather problem somewhere in the world. But it's been tough and I don't see it getting great. But if we can get the corner rally, maybe the wheat will go with it.

Yeager: I'm going to steal this from, well, first I'll ask you, there, about, at this, at 527 on December. What's a strategy that you should be looking at?

Gold: You know, it's really tough to get people to be excited about buying put options at these low levels. I don't see it going a whole lot lower. Hopefully the dollar will keep moving lower, and I think we've kind of found a bottom in here a little bit. It's been tough though. Every time it looks like it's a bottom, we make another new bottom. We've broken through some good technical signals to make new lows, but I. Are we going to go to 475? Are we going to go to $4? I don't see it. But as a risk manager, like I always say, at these kind of levels, buy a cheap put and hope you don't need it.

Yeager: Let's move to corn. If we could. The September contract somehow held on for a penny gain. How is that possible?

Gold: December closed down a penny for the week. You know, I called the report the Gomer Pyle report. ‘Surprise, surprise surprise.’ We had three surprises in that report. And the yield at 188.8 I don't see that that's going to be the final yield. Usually when the USDA comes out with a big number early, they tend to shave it over the next couple of months. I think that's what we're going to happen here. They're looking at these satellite pictures and deciding, look, it's green. It's tall, it's good. And I don't believe that. I think it's green. It's tall, but it might not be good. I think you see a lot of issues with this tar spot with this tassel wrap and some other significant problems out there. A lot of tip back in some of these fields. So are we, does that make a 189 yield? I don't see that. But I think it's going to come down in time. I think what's important for the American farmer is the last couple of days, the reason we have been able to close within striking distance of last week is because the funds have started to cover some shorts in here, and that's a good thing for the market. They're still short about 130,000 contracts. I didn't see the commitment of traders as of Friday night, yet, but if we get a point where we're even close to getting the funds out of these short positions between now and harvest, you've got to take a strong look at marketing some grain up there on that rally, because we're still going to have to get through the harvest. It's still going to be a big crop. Where are we going to put it all? And the and the other problem is how much is still left on the farm from last year.

Yeager: Well, that's what I wanted to ask you about. We have had some export sales. Yeah. Do we have enough in the offing that can, can help keep us from falling any further here?

Gold: Well, you've got a 2 billion plus carryout out here, which is a big number. We need to see some new demand either year round. Ethanol E15. We've got to do something positive for this corn market to start whittling down these these numbers out here. If we could get a deal with China, it would still be helpful for the corn and the beans, maybe even wheat. So there are a lot of moving pieces right now. We've got to see what the result of the summit between President Putin and President Trump. I don't think there will be anything concrete there. I don't see Zelenskyy giving up any land. We saw what happened in World War II before World War II, when Chamberlain appeased Hitler and gave him the Sudetenland. They don't want to make that same mistake again. And Europe is very well aware of that. So I don't know that if anything positive is going to come out, which tells me that he'll continue to put tariffs on Russia, he'll continue to penalize China if they buy oil from Russia and India buying oil from Russia. That's not good. If we can solve that problem, then maybe things can pick up.

Yeager: Usually when we talk about China, it's always about beans. But you're saying there's still that possibility they might be buying some more corn.

Gold: Yeah, it's possible out there.

Yeager: So then with beans then with no trade deal in sight. Yeah. What is buoying this market?

Gold: Well when you cut, you know, 2.5 million acres. Excuse me. You cut 2.1 million acres out of the bean crop. Yeah. They raised the yield a little bit. But now with the carryout we're looking at is 290, lose one bushel an acre between now and harvest. And you got very tight stocks out there. So I think that's what's moving the bean market, I think it's legitimate if we get a carryout somewhere 250 or less. Now we've got something that can push these markets to reasonable levels.

Yeager: And late Friday they're starting to be the word. This weather might actually become a story in the soybean market. It's starting to show up a dry part in Illinois that could spread. The farmers that I talked to this week at the Iowa State Fair, they all had words to say about the corn. But the beans, they all kept saying, I just don't see it there. Yeah. Does Chicago believe that it's there yet?

Gold: I think the vast majority of people do. You can't have this amount of rain on the crop up to this point, and not expect a pretty good crop. This is, I think, the first year, and I don't know how many years there isn't one county in Iowa that's in drought. From Thursday's report, there's been a lot of rain, but now we're getting to the pod filling stage on the beans. This next two weeks is critical. And if we turn hot and dry, we're going to knock something off these yields. So. I think the beans have got a chance in here. I'm hopeful on the beans okay.

Yeager: So that's a hopeful. Holding? Selling? What are you doing here?

Gold: Well you know at this point you got to keep it cheap. What we've rolled down puts. We did make some cash sales on Thursday which we were happy with. We had a nice 65 cent rally in the beans. Okay. We sold 5% of our guaranteed bushels. That's just rewarding the market a little bit for what they've done out here. We still have an awful lot of beans left to sell. And if we do continue to move higher, we're going to continue to sell more grain until we can get those cash sales made. We're going to keep it put underneath us just in case something happens. If we don't get a trade deal.

Yeager: What's happening in live cattle, because you keep adding to this contract and there's no reason to think that this party is over, is it?

Gold: Well, Secretary Rollins came out and said they're going to build this facility. And outside of Austin or near the border somewhere, and that they're not going to bring in any Mexican cattle. Yesterday, the rumor was that they might open it up. We broke hard and the cattle came back today very strong. It's the wrong time of month to be making highs. We usually make the highs the last Thursday or Friday of the month. So the back's beef made new highs after breaking $30, $35. It came back just under $400 this morning. It's unprecedented. Now we're getting some of that last minute Labor Day buying out here. But is the American housewife not going to go to something else, whether it's poultry or pork or fish or pasta or somebody's something else? I think they will soon.

Yeager: I look at the prices every Saturday morning when I go and do the shopping and look and see that those, the protein, the chicken is still high. The pork is, is, I don't see everybody buying that yet. They're still buying beef, but just not as much anecdotal. I know. That's for another day. Let's talk feeders for a minute because again, the conversation this week has been about where can you find them? You find them, but can you find enough to lean into this rally?

Gold: Not yet, but this. Do you have to understand about markets? Is the markets will turn before the fundamentals justify it? We've seen that time and time again, whether it's in the grains or in the livestock. So people continue to say there's no cattle out there, there's no cattle out there. And all of a sudden the prices will go down. It'll be because, in my opinion, that the demand at the retail level, Mrs. America isn't going to buy high priced beef. I mean, it's, it's not just high priced beef. It's historically high beef. And I think when it comes to a choice between hamburger or, you know, blending in some pork to make a meatloaf or something, that's going to happen more often out here. I think people once we get past the Labor Day weekend and the grilling backs off, steak prices will come down. So I think we're in a period now. The next two weeks could be strong, but I've been saying that for six months.

Yeager: So quickly. On hogs 10 seconds here. I mean, this didn't quite have much of a rally this week.

Gold: No. And I, I think the hogs are kind of a dog in this market, but, you know, we've got plenty of hogs. We need to see a little bit more demand. And I think that's coming. So I think that will help the hogs in the long run.

Yeager: We'll see. We got to have something to talk about when we have you back. All right. Mark Gold, thank you so much. Good to see you.

Gold: Good to see you. Nice to be here. 

Yeager: Mark Gold everyone. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue in a discussion that's online and it's only there online search Market Plus with Mark Gold. Wherever you get your podcasts to hear that conversation. Or you can go to our website of markettomarket.org. 

Sunday, August 24th, 2025 will be the final edition of our 50th season tour. We are celebrating here in Johnston and you are invited. Get all the details by going to our website at Markettomarket.org and scroll all the way to the bottom of the page. You can RSVP for free, but seats are limited. We do look forward to seeing you there. 

Next week we will look at a school that won't let agriculture be secondary. Even at the primary level. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer. Our name is our Mission..

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Announcer: Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

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