Market to Market - August 22, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on market to market, the EU and U.S. Agree to a framework as policy details emerge. A school that won't let agriculture be secondary even at the primary level. And commodity market analysis with John Roach next.

Announcer: What's next? Doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges.

Announcer: We're committed to creating what's next because a Pioneer our name is our mission. 

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Announcer: Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

Announcer: Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Announcer: This is the Friday, August 22nd edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.  A trip to the Wyoming mountains left little leisure for the Federal Reserve and their annual retreat to Jackson Hole. President Trump has been putting pressure on this group to lower the key lending rate banks use with one another. During a speech Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt there’s a lot of doubt on a possible rate cut. Higher mortgage rates have been factors for potential buyers of existing homes. This market ticked higher by 2 percent in July. The Rural Mainstreet Index fell below growth neutral for the sixth time this year to a reading of 48.1. Weaker commodity prices were cited in the Creighton University-based survey that also revealed one in five farmers expect to face negative cash flow for the year. Policy news came in a couple of forms this week. One could impact pork producers while another is a broader scope of items traded to Europe. David Miller has our policy wrap up. 

David Miller: This week, the threat of 30% tariffs were pushed to the side as the European Union and the United States agreed to a trade deal framework. According to a statement from the White House, the EU will work to eliminate tariffs on a long list of U.S. industrial goods and give preferential market access to a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural products. On the EU’s list of items receiving preferential treatment are dairy, soybean oil, and pork. In return the U.S. will apply a tariff rate of 15% on more than two-thirds of the products imported from the EU. When all the details are hammered out, the deal will apply lower import taxes on both sides of the Atlantic and help keep $2 trillion in annual trade flowing between the two economies. Duane Stateler, president of the National Pork Producers Council, thanked the administration for including pork in the deal.

Duane Stateler, President, NPPC: “There’s no clarification on it. I mean, that’s a real problem if it is, because then that takes out, not only does that take just, you know, just plain sausage, but that take out, you know, then you’re talking, you know, the hot dogs, bratwurst, you know, go right on down the line and that will be a problem for us that that is all considered in ultra-processed.”

Miller: The NPPC is, however, pushing back on the administration’s Make America Healthy Again policy that identifies sausage as an ultra-processed food. In a letter to the MAHA commission, the Council says preservation of what they call a versatile and affordable protein  by curing, smoking or salting often gets pork products misclassified as ultra-processed foods. The NPPC says the methods are generally recognized as safe. 

The Administration is putting some support behind beginning farmers and ranchers by making crop insurance more affordable over a 10 year period. As part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, beginning farmers and ranchers can get a boost to subsidy rates for crop insurance of an additional 15 percentage points. The upgrade lasts for two years and then the rate declines to 10 percentage points for years five through 10. For Market to Market, I’m David Miller.

Paul Yeager: Back to school pictures will be on full display come Monday as many educational institutions open the doors for fall classes.

Just like the work never stops on the farm, the learning continues from the first bell of the day to the last click of the gate when all the chores are done.

For one school’s vocational agriculture class, connections to the land are the key to opening the door to our world as Colleen Bradford Krantz reports in our Cover Story.

Colleen Bradford Krantz: Instead of heading to a sports field or music room after school, many students at Academy at the Farm near Dade City, Florida spend their afternoons caring for nearly 100 farm animals.

The pre-K through 8th-grade public charter school  integrates agriculture into its science curriculum from an unusually early age. Elementary students participate in monthly lessons and there’s an option for daily agriculture classes starting in sixth grade.

Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “A lot of kids automatically have the idea that agriculture is just playing with animals all day, or feeding animals or having pets or something like that. And we want to expand their horizons and have the knowledge that agriculture is actually giving us life. So it’s providing us with food, it’s providing us with resources and commodities that we need….And our goal is that by the time they leave our school, they go into the world as more informed consumers so they are then able to then inform other consumers.”

Bradford Krantz: Opened 23 years ago, officials say the school was already performing well academically before expanding its agricultural focus a decade ago. As of 2024, it had again earned Florida’s “A” school designation, landing in the top 12% of the state’s public schools.

The school, located 40 miles northeast of Tampa, has 825 students and a waiting list of over 3,000. With that kind of interest, Academy at the Farm has decided to open a high school.

Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “When I came here 10 years ago, academics and high expectations were the things that were drawing kids…Today there are people that absolutely want to come to our school because of our agriculture program.”

Bradford Krantz: Newly-retired School Director Ray Polk, who was raised nearby on what was then a 6,000-acre cattle ranch, laments the decline of local agriculture as urban sprawl replaces livestock and citrus groves.

Ray Polk, Director, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “Tampa is moving our way and it’s coming 4,000 homes at a time….I felt like kids needed to know where their food comes from. Less and less kids are educated with that. And, I found that kids thought that, you know, their hamburger came from McDonalds.”

Bradford Krantz: Polk says they have always have always had high expectations related to behavior and the agriculture component has played directly into that.

Ray Polk, Director, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “It’s an interesting phenomena to me when you can take kids that are struggling or having trouble, and you take them over to the barn for 15 minutes and it can change the whole day….You can go hand them a baby goat and their life changes. It’s almost like magic.”

Bradford Krantz: The after-school agriculture program is self-sustaining through fundraising and agricultural product sales. Despite the focus on agriculture, the school still prioritizes core academics.

Ray Polk, Director, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “The state doesn’t test whether the kids know how a pig has piglets…What they test on is their math, reading and writing.”

Bradford Krantz: Polk credits the agriculture program’s success to the wife and husband teaching team of Robin and Tim Carter. Robin, who previously taught in one of the grade school classrooms, developed the curriculum after building a highly successful after-school 4-H club, while Tim, a former P.E. teacher, now manages the barns.

Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “I integrate a lot of the Florida science standards into the elementary agriculture lessons that I do. So that’s how I support the elementary teachers. …I talk a lot about what it means to be a scientist. I talk a lot about what it means to research something and not just believing everything you hear but to actually go to a good source …to get your information from.”

Bradford Krantz: Students also have the option to care for animals on the school grounds, many of them preparing to show at fairs, events which boosts parental interest and community support.

Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “They see how our kids work together at the county and state fair, and they love the camaraderie and teamwork they show to each other.”

Agriculture is also used as a way to teach resilience as the school allows the students to directly face hardships when they arise.

Bradford Krantz: Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “In education sometimes, the expectation is everything is done perfect all the time. And in agriculture, that’s not how life goes. You could have a project or a crop or an animal that suddenly passes away or suddenly dies or there’s a hurricane or something happens. And you have to be able to roll with the punches.”

Bradford Krantz: Families whose children want to show market animals through 4-H or FFA typically buy their animal and cover most costs associated with raising them on-site. Other students can be assigned to care for a non-market animal, such as a dairy cow or hen, for a year.

Grants and donations have enabled the Academy to expand the outdoor facilities.

Tim Carter, Barn Manager, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “After school, if you have an animal here, it has got to be fed, it’s got to be taken care of, and on the weekends .…They are responsible for feeding and any changes. And we work on showmanship practice and get ready for fairs and shows… Most of the kids that we get, we’re very lucky. They don’t grumble about the work at all. …And these projects are also family projects. You know, a 10-year-old can’t drive themselves here on a Saturday to feed their animals.”

Bradford Krantz: Seventeen-year-old Christiana Williams, a former student, still keeps pigs on site and helps younger children with their projects.

Christiana Williams, Former Student, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “So the really nice thing about this is everything is hands on. …When I first started, I told the Carters that I would never ever give a vaccination to a pig. It freaked me out. I didn’t like needles, I didn’t like anything like that. Flash forward a couple months later and I was giving almost all the injections in the barn.”

Bradford Krantz: Eleven-year-old Connor Groover sees the program as life preparation.

Connor Groover, Student, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “Having to stay responsible to feed them and, like, being responsible with my money, having to pay for their food and all their equipment and stuff.”

Robin Carter, Agriculture Science Teacher, Academy at the Farm, Dade City, Florida: “We need to create students who are feeling confident at an early age to be outside, getting their hands dirty, being hands-on. If I can get a kid to pick up a drill at home instead of a cell phone at home, that makes me really, really happy. And middle school kids are at an age where I feel like they’re not given a lot of trust so, when you give them that trust, they just shine.”

Bradford Krantz: For Market to Market, I’m Colleen Bradford Krantz.

Announcer: Next the market to Market report.

Yeager: A crop tour of major growing areas gave the pros a chance to shed some light on how close their accounts are to USDA yield estimates for the week. The nearby wheat contract fell $0.02, and the September corn contract added a nickel. Some movement over refinery waivers boosted soy oil, which in turn helped the whole complex. The September soybean contract improved $0.14, while September Meal gained 1330 per ton. December cotton expanded by $0.47 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September class three milk futures declined $0.15. The livestock market was higher. October cattle added $7.23. September feeders put on 1533 and the October lean hog contract widened by $1.10. In the currency market and the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar index dropped by 24 ticks. October. Crude oil, strengthened by $1.56 per barrel. Comex gold added $0.37 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up by almost 11 points to settle at five 4485. Joining us now our senior market analyst John Roach. Hi, John.

Roach: Hi, Paul.

Yeager: I wish this wheat story would change, but it hasn't. Still ample supply. Still not a world picture. However, we had a little movement this week with this Russia and Ukraine story of what is going to come out of these negotiations. How big of an impact is that on wheat right now in your eyes?

Roach: Well, I think it's partly the reason that wheat prices are as cheap as they are. I think concern about those supplies becoming more readily available to the world market has pushed our price level down.

Yeager: Do you get the sense that that is the biggest factor?

Roach: No. The biggest factor is we have big production around the world. I mean, the supplies are big, but we've had some restriction to the availability of those supplies because of the restrictions that countries have put in buying Russian wheat and because of the restrictions, Ukraine had been moving and they're moving their wheat. And if there's a settlement in that area, then the Black Sea region, presumably this is what the market's thinking. The Black Sea region supplies will become more available to the world. And, and that's pushed prices down.

Yeager: And are we stuck in this lower price range for a while?

Roach: Well, we might be. I mean, certainly you have to eat your way through these kind of supplies. And so it's going to depend really on what kind of crops come out forward. But the market, we have an expression in the markets called buy the rumor, sell the fact. And so the rumor is things are going to get settled in in between Russia and Ukraine. The fact is, once that happens, then that negative has cast all the pressure on the market that it can. And emotionally, the market can then maybe recover. If you remember, if you go back to 22 when the Russians invaded Ukraine, we peaked the market on the second week of March when we thought that we're not going to be able to get any of those supplies. That was the peak of the market, and prices have slid from that peak. So it would be maybe just serendipity that we would make the bottom when peace comes to the region. We're praying for that.

Yeager: Is it rumor or fact that there's a big corn crop out there?

Roach: Well, at the moment it's a fact. But the rumor has it maybe not as big as we thought. There's been quite a bit of surprise here over the recent days, and that the USDA came out with a very big corn yield that surprised everybody. And then the Pro Farmer Tour this week said, well, wait a minute, wait a minute here. We've got some areas out here that once you get in the field and you look at it, it's not quite as good as we thought it was going to be. And so we're going to find out what the answer is. The USDA will come out with their in-field surveys starting here just in days. And then we'll get those counts on the WASDE report that comes out on in the second week of September.

Yeager: Penny last week nickel this week of improvement in corn old crop specifically. Does that give you hope that maybe that bottom is in.

Roach: Well the bottom was put in with everybody seeing very good weather, very good crop development, good crop ratings and an estimate by Stone X. That was a big, bigger estimate than people expected. And then the USDA followed that with even a bigger estimate. At the same time, we had commodity funds that had built a relatively large net short position. So you had all and you had farmers that were liquidating inventory out of the bins so they could harvest the new crop. So you really had all of those negative factors coming together at the same time that the user saw very little reason to step out and buy anything, because the crop looked big. I'll wait for harvest. I'll buy hand to mouth. And suddenly the market quit going down on bearish news. And then the market started to recover. And then today we pushed up above the 20 day moving average. Yesterday actually above the 20 day moving average. And that says the prices are above the average for the past 20 days. That's a trend change. And so a lot of commodity funds will take a look at these large net short positions. And we may well see, as we saw in soybeans, the commodity funds want to come in and cover shorts. Meanwhile, if you look at the daily sales reports, our corn sales have picked up, the export sales have picked up over this last week or so, after being very slow. It's actually coming together pretty good. And if you look at the total export corn sales, they've been rising rapidly. And that graph this morning shows that we're not very far behind our best year ever on total sales to date. So suddenly the demand maybe is a little better than we thought. At the same time. Well, maybe the production is a little smaller than we thought just a week ago, and the prices quit going down and now they're trending. So there's reason for this market to bounce up in here, and we think we'll get a sell signal this next week. And we think what's important is that farmers need to be mentally prepared to dribble some sales into this stronger market, because it's not going to run away from them. We're just hoping to get enough of a bounce here that we can put a little more money in the bank.

Yeager: You said it because I was looking at my John Roach translator, and it sounded like you were starting to say yes. Maybe there's a sell signal coming on corn. You did have a sell signal on beans this week.

Roach: We still do.

Yeager: And how much longer can that signal go?

Roach: Well, this today was the seventh day. And if you look back in the last 12 months, we had a nine day sell signal and an 11 day. And so we're nine. There were seven days into it and we're just ahead of harvest. We are at an important development stage here on soybeans. I mean, bean yields are determined in the month of August, and we've got a little bit of weather concern and we've got the funds short so we can probably we can hopefully move the market a little bit further. But I want to caution producers, you need to be selling into this, this soybean sell signal. If you're going to need to sell in the next 30 days, you need to be selling into this sell signal. If you're going to need to generate cash flow in the next 60 to 90 days, you need to be selling into the sell signal, and you need to be looking forward to 2026. We've been spending the last two weeks doing marketing plans for farmers, and we've been really happy with the response that we've gotten from our customers. About a third of the people that we call are putting together a marketing plan, and a lot of people have never done that before. And we really advise that that you get a plan put together for the most part, you're not going to like prices this upcoming year. We expect the market to have some weather peaks in the South. American weather is important. That's December January. You better have a plan put together, and you need to have some kind of a system you're following. So you you're able to recognize a market peak, understand that's a sell signal. And you need to have a plan put together. How many bushels am I going to sell on this next sell signal?

Yeager: Well, there's sell signals for one or the other. And Ronald in Iowa wants to know John. And this is a very popular question this week. Farmers that need cash flow this fall. Are you advising them to sell corn or beans?

Roach: I'd be selling beans because I've got beans up giving me a sell signal and I don't have corn giving me one yet. Corn's up a little bit from its bottom, but it's got a really hard row to plow here, to move forward very far. Whereas beans have already had a pretty good move. And I'll go one step further on beans if you're not paying attention to 2026 beans, if you're only thinking 30-60 days, you're short sighted because we've got big production out here and we're going to have probably the same problem next year as we have this year. And so we've got not only a sell signal on the beans that are in the bin, the field. We also have a sell signal on the beans that you're going to raise next year. And you need a plan to get those beans sold.

Yeager: And this is this. This is the crop that nobody really wanted to talk about as a positive going into 2025. And here it is. Sounds like the darling for you right now.

Roach: It is. And I hope that these are the sales that you look back on and say, darn it, I wish I wouldn't have made that sale, but every sale that you make, where the price goes higher, it's always too many bushels. So don't be out selling a ton of stuff. But you have to do business when it's time to do business, and you have to have a plan, and you have to have a methodology that will get you to make a sale. Because if you're not already paying attention to the 26 crop, you're doing exactly what you did last year and you don't like how that turned out. So you got to change your methodology. And our methodology had people selling when they should be selling last year. And we think you have to pay attention and do it again this year.

Yeager: Are you selling any live cattle right now?

Roach: Well, any cattle that already need to go because this is a hot market. I mean, this is we have prices that we know we can't maintain once it starts to break. Cattle on Feed report showed we had a few more placements than what we anticipated. The numbers were pretty much on target for on feed.

Yeager: On feed at 98, placed in July, 94 fed cattle marketed 94. Other disappearance 91. Which number stood out to you then? John?

Roach: The placement number was bigger than expected. They were expecting about 91 and it came in at 94. So we put a few more cattle on feed. Few more people are willing to take a chance. They're putting cattle in at the highest break even prices. Maybe they've ever seen. And so you have to be very careful, make sure you've got some risk management in place on those cattle. But this is a kind of a market that gets up here into kind of rarefied air. And something comes along and suddenly it disappears. And, and, and it costs people a lot of money. So, you have to be very, very careful with these kind of price levels. And market cattle is are ready to go.

Yeager: But I look at that feeder, 4.4% on an already large market of almost $15. Yeah, $15. It's crazy how this has been at this point, though. What takes the air out of it?

Roach: I don't know, you don't know. I mean, it's one of those kind of situations that you can you can look at all different kinds of possibilities, but it's just been my experience in the business over these years that when you get a market that's exploded the way this one has, you just have to expect something to come along.

Yeager: In the hog market that that has been there's a little bit of a concern for a couple of their products with the new administration and what they might do. Does that give you any pause for concern, expanding hog herd right now?

Roach: Well, the good news is that when we're negotiating, when the administration is negotiating with other countries, the product that we have that we're typically able to get some traction on is are our agricultural products and our pork products are high quality products. And, and and as long as the government overseas doesn't restrict them from coming in, we're darn competitive in that industry. And so I think the good news here is that the hog demand will or pork demand will prove to be stronger this upcoming year than what we currently see.

Yeager: And do you think that's partly because of higher beef?

Roach: I think certainly it is. Beef price worldwide beef prices are very high and compared to pork prices.

Yeager: All right John, good to see you. I appreciate your time. We're going to see you this weekend for a a good event, 1977 was your first appearance on Market to Market. We'll talk about that a little bit here in Market Plus. Thank you John.

Roach: Thanks, Paul. Great to be back.

Yeager: All right John Roach everyone. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue our discussion in an online only segment. Search Market Plus with John Roach. Wherever you get your podcasts. To hear that conversation or go to our website of markettomarket.org. We will have some images and stories from our 50th season celebration Sunday. In our next Market Insider newsletter. Sign up at our website at Markettomarket.org. To be in that exclusive club next week. Three big challenges facing the pork industry. We'll have that story when you join us next time. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

Announcer: Market to Market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

Announcer: What's next doesn't happen by chance. It happens when researchers and farmers work together to solve tomorrow's agronomic challenges. We're committed to creating what's next because at Pioneer. Our name is our Mission..

Announcer: Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.

Announcer: Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.