Market to Market - September 12, 2025

[Yeager] Coming up on Market to Market. The effort to make America healthy. Gets new 

details. Delta farmers united. Returns to the livestock sector while harvest begins in dry conditions. Double the commodity market analysis with Ross Baldwin and Jeff French. Next.

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[Announcer] This is the Friday, September 12th edition of Market to Market. The Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. We begin this week's inflation report with the wholesale picture. The producer price index measures prices before they reach the consumer. That mark was off a 10th of a percent. The year over year figure was up 2.6%. The core CPI looks at what you and I pay in the stores. That number increased 4/10 of a percent, while the core components like gas, groceries and airfares pushed the consumer price index higher by 3/10 of a percent. The Federal Reserve meets next week, and pressure remains on the independent governors to cut their key lending rate. The nation's health was at the center of the draft version of the Make America Healthy Again report. This spring. Peter Tubbs looks at the latest version released this week, and some of the impacts on agriculture.

[Narrator] This week, the Make Our Children Healthy Again strategy report was released by The White House. The document was promoted as the final outline of federal Actions to Improve the Health of America's Children.

[Vince Haley] Today's report outlines a bold framework to improve children's health through 128 targeted directives and strategies.

[Narrator] In a departure from the preliminary assessment issued in May, the report avoids recommending limits on pesticide use and agriculture. The report describes the Environmental Protection Agency's current processes and methods as robust and encourages continued studying and monitoring of the effects of ag chemicals on children. The report also promotes reform of the review process without specifying what the reforms would be. Exposure to chemicals was identified as a concern, but few changes to current policy were proposed in the strategy. Language on the health risks of pesticides used in agriculture that appeared in the initial report in May, did not appear in the strategy document released this week. Glyphosate and atrazine, which were specifically discussed in the May report, were not mentioned in the strategy document. Croplife America, a trade association of agrochemical companies, the National Corn Growers Association and the American Farm Bureau Federation, all issued positive reviews of the strategy. The document emphasized the need to improve the nutrition and activity level of American children, pointing to rising rates of obesity as a concern. For Market to Market, I'm Peter Tubbs.

[Yeager] Last week, USDA forecast net farm income would rise by almost 41% over 2024. However, cash receipts for corn, soybeans and wheat are all expected to decline in year over year. Findings. While livestock production is forecast to be higher. Farmers are aware of the imbalance between the cost of production and commodity prices, leading to little, if any, profits. Prices, policy and prayer all came together last week in Arkansas, as Colleen Bradford Krantz reports.

Speaker: Almost everything that could go wrong for Arkansas farmers did go wrong. This year.

[Narrator] Hundreds of farmers gathered in Brooklyn, Arkansas, last week as producers told congressional staffers about a combination of a bumper crop, disappearing export markets and higher input costs for items like fertilizer due to higher import tariffs. As reported by Katv in little Rock, the group also stopped for a prayer. Main Street USA businesses centered on agriculture have experienced fewer sales as farmers look to cut costs wherever possible.

[Dr. Ryan Loy] What's going on right now is, is really not due at all. To poor money management on a farmers part, right? They do everything marketing. They cut costs, they handle everything, and they've got things pretty, pretty sewed up tight and solid. But there's these outside market factors that are occurring right now that just makes it very difficult for them.

[Narrator] Dr. Ryan Loy, assistant professor and extension economist at the University of Arkansas, says these challenges are heightened as rice and soybean exports have dropped in the last year.

[Dr. Ryan Loy] I think that the China ship, in terms physically, metaphorically has really sailed overall, and I think that this has been a slow shift since 2018. Since the first trade war. If you think about it from a purely business perspective, right. If I'm China and commodities are on the whole not saying that they actually are, but if commodities are all the same, I have a better relationship with Brazil and I can get it cheaper.

[Narrator] With half of U.S. soybeans exported. This leaves all U.S. farmers, including those in the Razorback State, turning to the federal government for aid in the same manner as in 2018 and 19, when payments totaled nearly $23 billion. USDA forecasts agricultural exports to China to be $9 billion next year, down from a peak of 36,000,000,000 in 2022.

[Dr. Ryan Loy] Speaker: If the policy is isolationism and we are going to tariff everybody, well, they can retaliate. And unfortunately, the pawn in that is going to be the farmer, right? They're going to be the first ones attacked because that's the easiest. That's kind of the Achilles heel. And so really they're asking for immediate support to get to 2026.

[Narrator] For Market to Market, I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

[Announcer] Next the Market to market report.

[Yeager] The anticipation of the two government reports Friday muted movement as harvest begins in much of the corn belt for the week. The nearby wheat contract added $0.04 and the December corn contract gained $0.12. USDA increased demand in both corn and beans. In the report, the November soybean contract put on $0.19, while October meal increased 710 per ton. December cotton expanded by $0.80 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor. October class three milk futures lost $0.55. The livestock market was mixed. October cattle dropped $6. October feeders cut 1210, and the October lean hog contract gained $1. Ten. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was down nine ticks. October crude oil found $0.76 per barrel. Comex gold added 37. 30 per ounce. And the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was higher by seven points to settle at 550 even. Joining us now, two of our regular market analysts, Jeff French Ross Baldwin. Good to see you both.

[French] Great to be here. 

[Baldwin] Good to see you.

[Yeager] We'll get to you in a minute, Ross, because there's a lot to deal with you. But, Jeff, I didn't think we were going to be talking grains as much as we were tonight. What did this report say to farmers?

[French] Well, you planted a lot of corn. That's what the report said. 98.7 million planted acres of corn. That was 1.4 million acres. More than anticipated since the June 30th acreage report. We've added 3.5 million acres of planted. So, there is a lot of planted corn out there. They did reduce the yield. But all in all, we are looking at a 16-billion-bushel crop. One of the biggest on record. But the market sure did not –

[Yeager] But as I say, but the market.

[French] -- the market sure did not. And it comes down to, you know, don't short a sleepy market. And this corn market had been very quiet for the last couple of weeks. I mean, on Wednesday, in the entire contracts, we traded 191,000 contracts in every single month. Today, in December alone, we traded 343,000 contracts. So, the market had been very quiet and we woke up today.

[Yeager] So what does that tell you that everybody got into the dance now?

[French] Well, I think, you know, it's just we've digested a lot of the bearish news. And technically we got above the 100-day moving average today at 427 for the first time since May. I think if we can hold that for the Monday and Tuesday of next week. So, three consecutive days above that, I think we'll have a story. You know, today might have been a one-off deal, but the charts do look good. Now we need to hold it and see some follow through here. But the story is, you know, 90 million acres of harvested corn. And then 98.7 million planted acres, the highest since 1936.

[Yeager] So, Ross, what did the report say to you then, specifically in corn.

[Baldwin] I agree with Jeff. I think we've just we've digested so much bearish news for several months now. We saw in the August WASDE, the USDA came out with the 180 8.8, which was the high print on yield for the year. Corn made a low of 3.92 that day, and we never went back and took that low out. And I think, yeah, the USDA is plugging in some extremely large demand numbers here right now. But we just haven't thrown any new bearish news at this market as yields coming down.

[Yeager] So is this going to be the week we look back at corn did what it did. Livestock did what it has done. Are we going to look back and say this is where one sold off and one started to buy?

[Baldwin] I, I think for sure this week we have is a trend that sticks around. I don't think so. I think corn is still going to have a little bit of headwind, as Jeff said. I mean, we're still looking at one of the largest corn crops on record. I think this this 430, you got the 200-day moving average up at 440 for corn. I think corn is going to start to run into some resistance. I just don't see any reason to see a huge rally beyond the 200 day, especially as we're heading into the gut slot of harvest.

[Yeager] So the feeder producer right now, are they feeling the biggest pinch in what happened today.

[Baldwin] From a corn price standpoint? I don't think so. I don't think it's a huge fundamental shift, especially as you look at cost of grain. I mean, with $2.40 fat cattle. You still with corn at 430 and a lot of basis numbers at 40 under across the corn belt, you still got some $4 cash, corn. And from a cost to gain standpoint, you can still afford to pay quite a bit of money for feeder cattle when fat cattle are at $2.40. Now, if we would see a deeper sell off, I mean, it'd take a much deeper sell off. Then it starts to become a different story. But right now, I don't think it's a material shift. And the dynamics between the price of corn and the price of cattle.

[Yeager] So, the big story was going to be cattle this week. Why?

[Baldwin] The sheer volatility that we've seen across the markets. You had feeder cattle down limit on Tuesday. Live cattle did not trade down their daily limit. But this is the second week in a row that cattle have closed lower in the last several months. I think you'd have to go back to March. The last time that we had two weekly lower closes. So, the million-dollar question always is, is the high end. And I think that's the question we all wrestle with in the cattle markets, because we're all so fearful. When you have feeder cattle go to 370 and live cattle get almost a 245 on the board. It's rightful, rightfully so, to wonder that question. I personally I don't think the highs are in yet. If you put me on the spot, I think the fundamentals are still supportive, that the highs aren't in. But you got to keep in mind that if you go back to the end of June, feeder cattle put a $70 rally together. July and August and live cattle rallied $35 off their lows. I mean, these are some historic moves that we're seeing. So, some volatility to the downside shouldn't surprise anyone here.

[French] Stock market all-time highs this week 46,000 on the Dow. I mean you just you can't get bearish cattle up here. I mean it just until we see something that changes there. I mean the consumer is going to feel comfortable. Got money in their pocket. And the demand has been absolutely robust.

[Baldwin] There has to be a meaningful fundamental shift. And that's not on the horizon today.

[Yeager] You don't see, you don't see something?

[Baldwin] By all rights, 2026 is going to get tighter on numbers than what we're seeing today. We will continue to get tighter as we head into the remainder of this year. I do think there's plenty of market ready fat cattle up here in the north, but the south is starting to get significantly tighter, and we're seeing that with the South running PA on cash. That's something we have not seen in a long, long time.

[Yeager] All right. Well, I didn't even tell you what I was going to ask you. Reece in Iowa wanted to know when you mentioned the South. If they opened the border to Mexico, and that cattle herd, how much of that of an impact will it have on the northern trade on fats and northern feeder market.

[Baldwin] Over the near term? I don't see it having a huge impact, especially up here in the north now down in Texas. It will have an impact. But the thing that I go back to right now that I've been wrestling with, because I'm in the camp that, hey, if they make an announcement that the border is getting reopened, it's going to have a negative impact on this market. The thing to look at is last month, Texas placements were 75%. The two months before that, they were 82 and 83% on placements. Texas isn't placing cattle because of the border being closed. And look what our domestic feeder cattle market is doing. It's setting all-time record high prices, so it's not really a function of Texas going up and buying all these cattle and put them on feed. That's not happening. They're just stepping out of the market. So, I think if you look at that and they eventually open the border up, which my opinion is, and I don't know any more than anyone else does on the border, but my opinion is we do not see that border reopen between now and the end of the year. I think this is going to take some serious time to see this border reopen. But you got to be prepared to expect the unexpected. But if that border does reopen, it's going to be more of an impact just on the southern region of Texas finally placing more cattle.

[Yeager] Think about cattle on feed and what that means. We'll come back to you in a minute. I need to button up corn for one last thing. Range wise, what am I doing here? Near and far. With corn?

[French] Well, I mean, so we close above for 27. That was my number. I mean, that's been the number here for a while. That kind of gets us out of that downtrend. So, if we can hold that again for a couple of days next week, I think it's going to look good. But you know you got to check your basis. If the basis is widening during this rally you probably need to look to lock some in because we are going into the glut of harvest. I mean, there's going to be a lot of corn that gets thrown at this market.

[Yeager] Why did beans rally today?

[French] You know, I think it was just, you know, it got above the 100-day moving average as well. The bean, you know, national average is 53.5. You know, that's a big number. I think there's some thought with how dry August was nationally. It's one of the driest Augusts we've had in the last ten, 12 years. You know, you could see that number come down quite drastically. So. But China remains nonexistent on the export side. So, the beans could be the wild commodity here in the next couple of months.

[Yeager] But there's a story that there could be some talk earlier than this November date that we're throwing around. Is that at all being factored into the market?

[French] I think so. I mean, they Secretary Bessent is expected to meet next week. So that could have got some of the short traders covering them. But yeah, absolutely. I mean that would be welcome to the to the bean market.

[Yeager] So are you sitting here holding right now on beans.

[French] You know I think if you get up in that 1050 to 1075 area, you might want to shake some loose, depending on again, how your basis is. I mean, there's some tighter bases for some early beans if you can get to them here next week. But there's also some very wide bases out there. So, but if we get above that 1075 I would definitely look to reown anything sold back on paper. We haven't been above 1075 since October of last year.

[Yeager] Let's go back to wheat. Not really a big report for them today. However, that was a positive green on the week. What does that mean?

[French] You know I think you just get down to this level. I mean, both you got Chicago and Kansas City teetering right down here at $5, you know, 5 to 6 year lows. Eventually you're going to run out of sellers. And I have no desire to be short wheat down at these levels.

[Yeager] I caught by the first thing that you said. Sorry. That's why I was laughing. At some point, though, domestic or global picture. I ask it all the time. That doesn't seem to be a factor. U.S. producer right now. Are they contemplating planting less acres of wheat next year?

[French] That's always the talk. Does it happen? I mean, we'll see. But I mean, farmers plant. I mean, they farm. What are they going to let it, you know, their ground to go fallow? I mean, it just doesn't happen. So, the global wheat picture right now, we had a little uptick in the carryout, 4 million more metric tons than we were expected. But, you know, we just we got to get some of these trade deals done. I mean, there's just and we need a, you know, a weather problem somewhere out there in the world. And we just we haven't seen that here lately.

[Yeager] Ross, I wanted you to think about cattle and feed because that's the next report that's of significance. For livestock. What is the anticipation that a what the market will do in response? That's. And what will be the positioning ahead of this week given what we just went through this week?

[Baldwin] I think the anticipation for the cattle on feed reports is going to be on feed is going to continue to stay tight and work lower, and the placements is going to continue to head lower also. And the biggest influence in that is the closure of the Mexican border and the impacts that's having down in in Texas is the largest area that's impacting. Keep in mind we import 1.2 to 1.4 million head of feeder cattle from Mexico every year. Year to date, 230,000 head. And we're almost heading into Q4. So, I mean the it by the time this all settles out, it's going to be a million less head of feeder cattle that we're going to import or less that will import from Mexico this year. So, this story is not over. The I wish the USDA I know Rollins is talking today in Oklahoma about how they're going to work on the Screwworm, but I wish there was more of a definitive timeline around these sterile fly facilities, because I think that I struggle to see them reopening this border until there's a bigger handle on because they've talked about they need to release 4 to 500 million flies a week, and we're not even close to that. And so, I just struggle on how quick this border can actually reopen.

[Yeager] Well, how do you justify or I'm sorry, quantify or digest. No, not a lot of news about Screwworm this the last couple of weeks is that do you consider that that they've seen less expansion of this?

[Baldwin] I would assume that that that would be my assumption when there's no news about it. I go with that. That's probably good news that they're seeing less cases in Mexico. But it was only a few weeks ago that there were some reports out that Mexico was seeing a surge in cases down there. Now, there hasn't been any new cases at the USDA came out, announced that it's getting a closer to the border, which is a good sign to see.

[French] Screwworm is kind of an old story, though. I mean – 

[Yeager] You think? 

[French] Every time it's brought up, the market reacts less and less to it. I mean, if it is found in animals here, I mean, obviously it's going to have a knee jerk reaction. You know, just like when it was found in the human here in the States. So, but, you know, it's something now that we've been talking about for months.

[Baldwin] It's like anything when the market trades it a few times, it becomes old news. Now I'm not like I agree with Jeff. If we were to get a case down south that screwworms here, there's going to be a knee jerk reaction to it. But from a fundamental perspective, I mean, it's extremely labor intensive. Anyone that's ever dealt a screw on what they talk about. But the U.S. is equipped to better handle it, obviously, versus what they can down south of the border.

[Yeager] What are our hog producers handling right now? Are they -- it's been kind of just hanging around?

[Baldwin] Yeah. The hog market has been strong recently. Hog futures have been making new contract highs. The I believe the December contracts above every major moving average. Even with today's pullback stayed above the nine-day moving average. Hog supplies are just tighter. I mean, a lot of disease issues earlier this year, demand has been strong. The pork cut outs been on fire. I mean the pork cut outs actually staying extremely strong. And I believe around 114 115 in a time period that it doesn't stay this strong. But you know, pork hog slaughter and production is down, I believe 2.3% year to date. So, I mean the hog market's in good shape. And then you throw in the beef picture with high beef prices where they're at. It's hard to get to negative hogs down here.

[Yeager] Do you have a question for him?

[French] No. All time high beef prices along with the stock market at all-time highs. I mean, you just the proteins are not going to move lower. I mean, it's just they flow together.

[Baldwin] The protein story. It's interesting when you look at beef production down 4% year to date. Beef slaughters down 6.9% year to date. You look at pork 2.3% lower. We're just tight. And in a period where globally we're going to get tighter. Australia is in a rebuilding period on their herd right now. So, it's very interesting a lot of lot of moving pieces. And then throw in the fact the tariffs that the U.S. has on Brazil to where their beef isn't flowing into the U.S. The I don't see beef prices getting any cheaper, especially when you look at beef prices towards the consumer. They're going higher as we close out this year and head into 26.

[Yeager] As we finish up here. Jeff, this report versus the harvest that is already started, which is the bigger influence come Monday morning.

[French] Well, I think we'll have a time to digest it. But I mean, the fact is we have a good crop coming. You know, is there some issues out there? Certainly. I mean, there's areas that have really bad issues with disease and then some drought conditions. But overall, we're going to have a pretty darn good crop coming. And, you know, the fact is the American farmer is, you know, undersold. If you look at historical levels, especially with the bigger crop. So, I think you got to look at every 30 or 40 cent rally in the corn market and look at it as a either, you know, laying off some risk on paper or a selling opportunity.

[Yeager] Are we to the point where those who are on the combine in the middle of harvest, are they going to have to be paying attention? They can't just close up their information sources because there could be some strong volatility ahead here in the next six weeks.

[French] I mean, certainly I mean, we had some strong volatility here to end out this week. Again, I think you got to watch that 100 day moving average. You know we do have some really stiff resistance up here in that 445 to 450 area.

[Yeager] Okay. Lastly Ross, when we talk about this consumer, Jeff keeps mentioning this consumer. Is that story ever going to rear its head? I mean, we talk about inflation each time. Is there is there ever a point that you look at or a report you look at that goes, okay, no, that's significant.

[Baldwin] I think there's no question when you look at credit card delinquencies, credit card debt in this country, it's at alarming numbers. And there's no question inflation has been persisting for a few years now. And it seems like you're hitting a point where you can make the argument that the consumer is getting tapped out, but you go back to with beef production being as low as it is, you still have plenty of people to where they're just not shifting their diet right now. And you look at the cutout. The cutout has been under low pressure, but it's holding 400, so it's hard to get too negative right now.

[Yeager] Well, it's hard to say goodbye, but we have to thank you, Ross.

[Baldwin] Thanks, Paul.

[Yeager] Thank you very much, Jeff. We'll continue this conversation here in a moment. Thank you, gentlemen. And you have been watching the analysis segment, and in a moment we will continue this discussion in our online only segment, search Market Plus with Jeff French and Ross Baldwin. Wherever that you get your podcast to hear that conversation. Or you can go to our website of markettomarket.org. Now that discussion you just heard the Market Plus I just talked about and the MtoM are the three weekly podcasts released by this program. Subscribe today wherever that you get your podcasts. Next week we are going to look at the ways of encouraging more women to step into the leadership roles on the farm. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

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They're -- they're very dear to our heart.

It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

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