Market to Market - September 19, 2025

[Yeager] Coming up on Market to Market, the president heads to the UK in search of peace and deals. The EPA pushes for changes to how renewable are used, encouraging more women to step into leadership roles on the farm and commodity market. Analysis with Arlan Suderman next.

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[Announcer] This is the Friday, September 19th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.

[Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. A late summer burst of spending gave a boost to the U.S. economy, with back-to-school shopping leading the way. Retail sales added 6/10 of a percent in August. The increase was spread across several sectors, including online outlets and electronics and appliance stores. When the volatile automotive sector was removed, the spending pace was up 7/10 of a percent. The Federal Reserve cut their key interest rate by a quarter point. The FOMC notes it made the reduction despite slowing job gains and a historically low unemployment rate. This was the first cut in 2025. The Rural Mainstreet Index from Creighton University moved below growth neutral for the seventh time this year. Respondents told surveyors weak commodity prices present the greatest threat to banking operations in the next 12 months. China has been slow to buy U.S. commodities, even with low prices for a bushel of beans. Tariffs have been the main tool of negotiation for the Trump administration. The extra duties have brought in some revenue to the U.S., but complicated many global relationships. This week, the president headed to the UK to discuss Ukraine, NATO and other international issues. Peter Tubbs looks at one more point trade as he begins his report from the court system.

[Narrator] The legality of the Trump tariff plan will be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Two separate challenges to Donald Trump's authority to impose tariffs on trading partners will be argued before the nation's highest court on November 5th. The challenge is focus on the language of the international emergency, Economic Powers Act, which Congress passed in 1977. The act gives broad powers to the president during a declared emergency. Both sides of the case have asked for a quick ruling from the court.

But there are numerous other avenues that we can take.

[Narrator] During an interview on NBC's Meet the Press on September 7th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that the Treasury would have to refund roughly half of the tariffs that have been taxed since April.

[Kristen Welker] Would you offer rebates, though? Are you prepared to offer rebates?

[Scott Bessent] So we would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury.

[Kristen Welker] You're prepared to give those refunds.

[Scott Bessent] Well I mean there's no be prepared. If the court says it, we'd have to do it.

[Narrator] The tariffs levied by The White House have gathered an estimated $100 billion in the last six months. Goldman Sachs calculates that 85% of the tariffs have been paid by American companies and consumers. The White House expressed confidence in trade talks with China this week. The talks centered on ownership of social media platform TikTok, but also discussed trade broadly. The U.S. threatened to raise tariffs on China again if the European Union raised duties to punish China for buying Russian oil.

[Peter Navarro] But as a practical matter, we know that on the trade side, they have the highest tariffs of any major country. They have very high non-tariff barriers.

[Narrator] Many of the trade barriers are to protect Indian agriculture, which employs roughly 700 million people. Poverty among Indian farmers has been a contentious political issue for decades. For Market to Market. I'm Peter Tubbs.

[Yeager] A new study from the National Corn Growers Association said unrestricted sales of E15 would help boost the economy. Other areas of optimism for corn producers are the production of home fuel and limiting exemptions for refineries trying to get around production requirements. Here's David Miller with the story.

[Narrator] A back and forth over how many gallons of renewable fuels will get blended into the fuel supply may well be swinging towards refiners, leaving row crop producers in the balance. This week, EPA officials released a proposed rule with three options that could directly affect the ethanol and corn markets. The change will allow a certain number of Rins certificates, which track renewable fuels from creation to use to be used for compliance with federal law. In the 2026 and 2027 production years. Of the available Rins, the EPA is proposing a 100% transfer of 50% transfer or a 0% transfer to those years. The change could affect up to 2 billion gallons of renewable fuels like cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel. The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association believes those Rins should be allocated now and applied to production that took place between 2023 and 2025. The EPA has more Rins to give due to small refinery exemptions or SREs granted last month to various companies experiencing economic hardships for production that took place between 2016 and 2020. For the EPA's decision granted full or partial SREs to 140 companies that had been either held up or denied under the Trump and Biden administrations. For Market to Market, I'm David Miller.

[Yeager] The 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture painted a picture of declining farm numbers and acres, along with a rising average age of farmers. It also showed there are more new and beginning farmers. The data also revealed more than half of the primary decision makers in operations across the countryside are women. Some of the change may be in the way the survey questions are worded, but the reality is women are showing up in real time on the farm. Colleen Bradford Krantz reports in our cover story.

[Narrator] As an animal science undergrad at South Dakota State University in the late 1970s, Franny Fritz was so used to seeing nearly all young men in her classes that she would hesitate if she noticed too many women.

[Franny Fritz] In my animal science classes, if I walked into a room that had more than five women, I'm not kidding, more than five women, I back out thinking that I'm in the wrong room. Good gracious, I'm in the wrong room.

[Narrator] She wasn't fazed by being outnumbered, however, and earned her degree in 1978. She returned to the family dairy farm. Her mother had been managing in the five years since Franny's father had died.

[Franny Fritz] I milked cows for ten years, mom, and I did, and in 88 it was to the point of get rid of the cows, get rid of the milk cows, or keep the milk cows and get rid of the beef cows. And I chose beef cows.

[Narrator] At 69, she's just completed her 47th calving season, which still involves more than 100 cows. Today, most college agriculture classes look much different than what Fritz experienced nearly 50 years ago. A 2012 study showed women enrolled in all agriculture majors slightly outnumbered men in undergraduate programs at 70 of the nation's land grant universities. According to USDA, about 1.2 million women now represent about 36% of all producers in Arizona and Alaska. The percentage of producers who are female sits at 48%, nearly matching their male counterparts nationwide. Data from the most recent census of Agriculture shows, however, that only 11% of female producers ran a farm alone in 2022, compared to 37% of male producers. Fritz, who received the Dakota first Woman Farmer Rancher of the year award in August at a ceremony in Mitchell, South Dakota, felt many were initially skeptical of her running a ranch on her own, while others were encouraging.

We can learn something new every single day.

[Narrator] She say most skeptics came around after losing the local bet that she wouldn't last a year. But the negative encounters did take their toll, especially in those early years. One moment that stands out happened at a tractor parts counter.

[Franny Fritz] This part's been was not kind to me. He just wasn't. And he could be a pain in the rear end. Well, I went in one day. I was not having a good day. I just flat out wasn't having a good day. I had a list of parts I needed. I didn't know what the given name was for any of the parts, but I could tell him where they belonged. And he started in and I looked at him and I said, look, you don't want to wait on me. That's fine. I'll stand here until somebody that does want to wait on me waits on me. And it was just like a switch went off in that man. And he's the best parts man today. Isn't that something? Why did I have to do that?

[Narrator] It may have taken years, but she feels she has the community's respect now.

[Franny Fritz] I now can go into a parts place. And the parts. Men are all there, and it's. Hi, Franny. You know, or I can go into Magnus where I sell cattle and they know me there. There's. I'm blessed. I am blessed.

[Narrator] Cheryl Tevis, an agricultural journalist and magazine editor who spent 36 years at successful Farming magazine, helped Iowa State University and several industry groups when they made plans to bring women involved in agriculture together for monthly meetings starting in 2004.

[Cheryl Tevis] Women possibly did not feel as welcome or comfortable in going to meetings with other farmers and others, and were felt maybe in some cases somewhat inhibited, to ask questions, even though, you know, the questions they had were probably the same ones that were on the minds of everyone else. There.

[Narrator] By 2005, the monthly gatherings evolved to become the nonprofit Iowa Women in Agriculture, which is still going strong 20 years later.

[Cheryl Tevis] We also heard that women enjoyed learning with other women. It was about sharing experiences and also, you know, being able to have a good laugh.

[Narrator] West Central Iowan Tammy Diehl had a father who made a point of asking if she or her sister wanted to take over the family's farm.

[Tammy Deal] If you think back to the late 70s and early 80s, that was kind of unique at that point in time. But dad was pretty open minded, and he wanted to give us the opportunity. If we wanted to do that.

[Narrator] Neither sister was interested in taking on the job after college, Diehl eventually moved to Kansas City and worked in the tech industry. However, when her father became ill in 2011, she decided to move back to Iowa to learn how to run the farm.

[Tammy Deal] Much to my surprise, I think I ended up finding agriculture just really, really interesting. When dad had originally asked me, I didn't think it was something I wanted to do at all. And then I knew dad was needing more help. And so, I thought, okay, I'll give this a try. And I'm so glad I did.

[Narrator] She now manages the farm alone, having lost her father in 2016. She crops share leases to three younger farm families who grow corn, soybeans and small grains on the land. Deal now organizes what she calls ladies lunches, where she brings in guest speakers for other women landowners in Guthrie County. She is also helping introduce a nephew to farm management because he has interests but little background.

[Tammy Deal] And I think a lot of us don't know how very complicated a farmer's job is, but they have to wear so many different hats to be good at their job.

[Narrator] Franny Fritz agrees. It's important that both men and women be encouraged to at least consider agriculture.

[Franny Fritz] Find something that you have an inner peace with. I don't care what it is, but if you have an inner peace and you're just peaceful. Yeah, we all have bad days. Yeah, the world can feel like you've been dumped on really bad. But if you have that inner peace, you'll get through it.

[Narrator] For Market to Market, I'm Colleen Bradford Krantz.

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[Yeager] The arrival of harvest brought pressure to the market as a large crop has begun moving across the scales for the week. The nearby wheat contract lost a penny and the December corn contract fell by $0.06. Late week movement in the soy complex hung on a U.S. to China phone call. The November soybean contract sold off $0.21, while October meal decreased for 70 per ton. December cotton shrank by $0.50 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October class three milk futures gained $0.80. The livestock market was higher. October cattle added three. 60. October feeders put on 830 and the October lean hog contract improved by $0.85. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was up five ticks. October crude oil found $0.28 per barrel. Comex gold added 27. 80 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was lower by more than a point to settle at five 4875. Joining us now is regular market analyst Arlan Suderman. Hello, Arlan.

[Suderman] Good to be back, Paul.

[Yeager] Good to have you here. This wheat market, do you consider a $0.01 loss a victory for the commodity?

[Suderman] Yeah, I kind of do. Now futures market of wheat is different than corn and soybeans because just a small percentage of wheat traded in the world is actually traded on the derivatives market futures market. So, the cash market really drives things. And that cash market is really set in the Black Sea with Russia. Russia has some quality issues this year, and they've struggled to export what they wanted to export because the areas where they grow the biggest portion of exportable supplies is where they had quality issues. So, they're having to pull them from further, which costs more money. So therefore, they're not able to drop prices as far. And so, we drop down to around the $225 per ton level for their market. And it's finding some support there and drifting back up to 230. And if that continues, then that could give us an opportunity for our cash for our futures market to stabilize and keep our exports strong in the process. Generally, whenever we've rallied exports to start dry up because we're not competitive, but when we dip, we get a lot of export demand. So, we should be able to identify a trading range now where we can sustain those exports and get rid of some of these surplus stocks.

[Yeager] And the lower dollar for much of the week probably helped too.

[Suderman] That really helps make a difference. We got a long ways to go to really get where we need to be on currency, but that was a big help dollar, falling to three and a half year lows. Certainly a significant help.

[Yeager] So I guess I could ask a dollar question. Are we going to stick around that low area for the dollar and that impact then translating to commodities?

[Suderman] Well, that's a little bit tricky from the standpoint of our monetary policy. The fed seems to have us on now means more rate cuts, which would argue for a lower dollar. But for the dollar to go lower, we need the euro to be able to go higher. So, some of that hinges on the European economy. So, if they can maintain some stability in their economy, then yes, the dollar can continue lower.

[Yeager] And you could argue the conditions of part of the meeting this week with the U.S. and the UK, that maybe that's ahead because you saw some I think the Prime Minister gave some very glowing remarks to what those talks were like. So that scenario is possible.

[Suderman] Yeah, absolutely. And if we could get peace in Ukraine, that could also be a factor as well. But that looks like a distant hope right now.

[Yeager] We've held off on corn long enough. This is the story. It depends on who you believe, on how bad this rust issue is. What's the take on the size of this crop?

[Suderman] It's been interesting to look at the early harvest results. Quite a bit of variability, some very disappointing yields because of the rust and because of the drought, some very impressive yields. And what's typically there with the impressive yields was I put two treatments of fungicide on fungicide made a huge difference this year. And I understand farmers didn't want to spend money in the first place, let alone in the second place at these prices. But it made a big difference from what I'm hearing. Difference in yield anywhere from 2030 to even 70 bushels per acre, depending on the disease impact. How you know, how strong the disease pressure was and the timing of the treatments. But for the most part, fungicide treatment really paid this year, in a year when we really need to bushel ourselves out of a problem.

[Yeager] Do you get the sense that the early returns are different than other years? And what typically are early returns in a harvest?

[Suderman] Well, early returns in a harvest are usually quite variable because the fields that do have problems are the ones that dry down fast and are ready for harvest early. And so, it's not unusual to hear low yields early on. But then as you go into second and third week, you start listening, okay, what's the trend? And I'd say the trend is improving. We still have some bad yields. We have some very impressive yields. But overall, as you would anticipate, the best yields are in the northwestern Midwest, the western Midwest and the problem yields are the most in the South and the East, where drought was the biggest problem.

[Yeager] Which was the story we heard a lot of the summer. Let's quickly get Lenny in, because this kind of applies to both of the next two commodities here. Should you just sell everything off the combine? Local storage is $0.10 on beans, $0.09 on corn. Should I just cut losses and pay bills or gamble on price increase?

[Suderman] You know, I'm not sure where he's at, but basis is going to be your key for determining that. For example, if we're in a northwest, we have a lot more basis problems than we do in the eastern Midwest. But overall, if you've got decent basis and there are some areas where the corn bases I was looking at this year are very near average levels, then you may want to look at selling it. And every ownership plan doesn't mean you own it immediately, but you watch for those charts to turn. At that point you would have a plan in place for the discipline to do so. The other option is to try to capture if your basis is weak, find some storage, be working on getting that storage. Capture the recovery into basis, and have a plan in place to capture the carry that's in the market.

[Yeager] In the bean market specifically. Now, if we could, because that advice holds again, let's talk harvest returns because people do plant beans now before corn. What are you hearing there again?

[Suderman] It's quite variable. More due to weather where you're at. Again, the northwestern Midwest has some tremendous fields, some tremendous yield potential. It looks like as we're across the moor to the south and east, that's where we're having more variability, I will say, both for corn and soybean yields. Areas across northern Missouri into central Illinois that had the driest 30-to-45-day period on record to finish off the crop out of 133 years. Surprisingly good yields mixed in with the poor yields that you would expect.

[Yeager] What is then the take from a phone call today? The market was lower by $0.10 after the news of what was discussed. Does that give you optimism or pause for concern?

[Suderman] I think it's pause for concern for soybeans in the soybean market reflected that. As soon as the announcement came from The White House about the conversation, and there was nothing in I mean, they couldn't even finalize the TikTok agreement. Sounds like it says about our culture. We're a TikTok agreement was above a commodity agreement. As far as being able to get any progress. But that was very disappointing to soybean trade. And if you look at where we stand right now with Chinese purchases, they have their needs for September filled. They have their needs for October filled. They have 40% of their November needs. There's about 12 million metric tons of demand left to fill their needs through January. We sold about 22.8 million metric tons to them last year. So, we've already used up a little more than half of that that we've lost. Put it in bushels 841 million bushels last year. We've lost about 400 million bushels of that business already. And USDA hasn't reflected that yet. We still could get a trade agreement that would force them to buy in order to get access to our consumer market, but so far, there's no evidence that we're getting closer to that.

[Yeager] We need to move to livestock because cattle on feed came out today. I'm going to say 98% on feed place, 94% market at 94. What's the headline number?

[Suderman] No, the on feed number was pretty much as expected. But that was because placements were a little less than expected. But marketings were a little less than expected. So, it all equaled out on feed. Numbers were about as expected. I would expect minimal response overall, maybe a little bit supportive. As we get to Monday's trade.

[Yeager] Last week. At this time, the cattle market looked like maybe the end was near. What changed?

[Suderman] You know, we still have the tight supplies and the choice cutout really collapsed over the last ten days or so. We saw a big break there. So that would suggest, okay, the cash market is going to break as well. We saw the margins of the Packer margins go from plus 100 to -$120. But the cash market is holding up, especially in the South where supplies are tighter as the Packers are still fighting for share with their competitors. They don't want to give up market share, so they're paying up for those cattle to be able to stay in business, so to speak. So, the cash market is helping to provide some support for the board at a time when their margins are rapidly compressing.

[Yeager] Hog market went positive this week. It has been a counter to the beef market. What happened?

[Suderman] The interesting thing, and of course, when you look at beef, at some point we anticipate the consumer moving down the value chain to pork and poultry, poultry industries expanding. But the biggest thing with the pork industry is the numbers simply haven't been there. Like USDA quarterly hogs and pigs. Reports have suggested some disease issues at hand, maybe some other issues, but generally the numbers haven't been there. And so that has helped support the market. And the product market has again held up better than expected. The consumer United States likes their protein and they're still buying it. They're still buying their protein even at these prices.

[Yeager] Maybe those K state fans need to grill a little bit more instead of focus on the football. Would that help?

[Suderman] Oh, that's kind of below the belt. But yeah, maybe we need to feed our offensive line a little bit more of that protein.

[Yeager] That could be something. All right, Arlan, it's so good to see you I appreciate it. We have a whole lot of questions to get to here in Market Plus in a couple of minutes. All right. That's Arlan Suderman. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue our discussion in the online only segment search Market Plus with Arlan Suderman. Wherever that you get your podcast to hear that conversation. Or you can always go to our website of Markettomarket.org. There are three podcast offerings to help keep you informed and occupied while harvest hits full stride. The MtoM, along with the Market Analysis and Market Plus, are all available each week from this program. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts. Next week, hope for the decimated Florida citrus industry. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

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