Market to Market - October 10, 2025

[Paul Yeager] Coming up on Market to Market -- with the government shutdown, farmers are waiting for trade news during harvest. Trading partners come calling as deals are in motion. New farmers get some insight on navigating the business of producing food and commodity market analysis with Shawn Hackett, next.

[Announcer] I wouldn't be here without my customers.

Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers. They're very dear to our hearts.
It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
[MUSIC]
[Announcer] Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.
[Announcer] This is the Friday, October 10th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.
[Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager, the government shutdown is now in its second week, and the fourth longest back in 2018, a 35-day impasse started over a funding request for fencing the U.S. Mexico border. Now, official government reports are on hold, leaving markets to rely on private reports for guidance on what's happening. The White House and Congress continue their back and forth, but as of this taping, no end is in sight. China announced a port fee on U.S. owned vessels in response to one planned on Chinese owned ships. Friday, president Trump said there seems to be no reason to meet with China as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea in search of another trade announcement. The two parties appear to be jockeying for position. David Miller has more.

[Narrator] As American soybeans came out of the field this week, farmers looked for clues as to what trade resolutions might come from the Trump White House. Late last week, the administration hinted at a deal, or at the least, that aid might be coming to help offset losses from sales to China. This would be the second round of trade aid from a President Trump led USDA, which used the current government shutdown as a reason for why new assistance would be delayed. Trump and China's President Xi were slated to talk in person in less than a month, but those talks are in jeopardy after Chinese officials outlined new restrictions on the export of rare earth elements. Late in the week, President Trump is looking for more gains on things outside of agriculture, like intellectual property rights, stopping the flow of fentanyl, and increasing access to critical minerals. China has urged the U.S. to remove what they call unreasonable tariffs in order for them to resume soybean trade. Many farmers are still asking for trade and not aid.

[Brian Warpup] A trade deal with China would mean a lot. It really would. That's our number one customer. I mean, our number one customer won't do business with us right now. And we really need that to happen in the next year.

[Narrator] There was some movement in the trade battle between the U.S. and Brazil. Following a phone call where President Lula da Silva asked President Trump to remove a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio invited Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira to an in-person meeting. No word on when that meeting will take place.

[Narrator] Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney came to Washington this week looking for relief from tariffs hitting steel, aluminum and energy products imposed by their biggest trading partner. Canadian officials are looking for relief from specific import taxes, but they say expectations are low.

[Mark Carney] We are the second largest trading partner of the United States. We do a lot of trade going across the border where we're cooperating first thing. Secondly, we are the largest foreign investor in the United States.

[Narrator] Carney's meeting with Trump comes in the run up to next year's review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. For Market to Market, I'm David Miller.

[Yeager] How to get started in farming has always been a perennial head scratcher. Getting the land accounting for expenditures seemingly endless to do lists and talking with the bank can be bigger tasks when the job goes from idea to reality. An academy aimed at helping new farms and farmers get started helps with making the success stories. With the next generation of producers. Peter Tubbs reports. In our cover story.

[Narrator] 100 Red star and Isa Brown Layer hens search for food in the grass on the Kyle Rustic Farm in Roane County, Tennessee. The former Tobacco and Hay farm has been branching into new lines of business after class work at the new Farmer Academy, a resource provided by Tennessee State Extension.

[Susie Kyle] I dabbled in farming. I dabbled in agriculture, and when we set out to do this more on a full-time basis, it's like, if we're going to do it, we're going to do it right. So, I found this great program called The Beginning Farmer Academy, and I joined up and my eyes were open big after that.

[Narrator] The first major hurdle for many beginning farmers is determining if their farm plan can be profitable. The new Farmer Academy, created and operated by Tennessee State University, helps budding farmers understand the ins and outs of a business plan by estimating input costs and potential revenues.

[Jenni Goodrich] It's an eight-month series. It goes March through October, and it's a really neat program because it's kind of like AG 101 for grownups with lots of great field trips. We start every series off with farm planning and goal setting so that we can kind of get a feel, not only for the clients that are coming in and what their goals are for the class, but also to kind of help them get rooted in what they want to do long term so that they can kind of decide what they want to be learning from the program.

[Narrator] Many of the students enrolled in the new Farmer Academy are looking to farm from 5 to 50 acres of land. The academy has found producing non commodity crops and animals can be a viable way to get started.

[Susie Kyle] Traditional farming is plow till, plow till monocrop so we don't do that. We do regenerative agriculture, we do minimal soil disturbance. Our soil disturbances are chickens and our pigs. Pigs plow chickens till that's their job. We grow multi-species. We want as many grasses, as many legumes because we want as many plants.

[Narrator] The Kyles move their chicken coop every few days as grazing conditions allow. The grasses on their pastures are not managed. But are the plants that have emerged from the soil as the poultry scratch the ground? Each growing season reveals an increase in the variety of plants in the pasture. A large part of the coursework at the academy is discovering ways for new farmers to capitalize on productive niche markets.

[Jenni Goodrich] Hopefully, by the time they come out at the end, they've maybe put a few new things on their list and taken a few things off their list and had a better idea of economically what it's going to cost to get started and what they can expect long term.

[Narrator] The new Farmer Academy enrolled its first class in 2014, and a USDA grant helped to expand the academy to three other parts of the state.

[Finis Stribling III] Inaugural class. We had nine participants, and from there it's been taken off every year. This year, we're going to graduate 122 New Beginning farmers across the state of Tennessee.

[Narrator] Another building block for beginning farmers is simply learning the services that are available.

[Finis Stribling III] For myself, I'm a third-generation farmer. Well, I know about county extension. I know about the USDA agencies and things of that nature where when you come into farming for the first time, you have no clue who they are, where they are.

[Narrator] Students spend half of their course time on field trips to working farms in their region of Tennessee.

[Finis Stribling III] Where they get an opportunity to go talk to a farmer firsthand. First and foremost, they go out on the farm. They actually see a working farm because here again, they're new to that. And then you get the hands on because here's the beauty about New Farm Academy. You have that classroom instruction. A lot of times it's morning time. Depends on the time of the year. And then afternoon, either on field trips or you're going doing a lot of hands on, like say for example, we're talking about soil testing. We come in and do a program on soil test, and then we go out into the field and actually take soil samples and show a lot of the participants how to actually take a soil sample.

[Narrator] Tennessee agriculture is varied. While the west end of the state can support row crop farming, the central and eastern sections are better for grazing and specialty crops. 80% of working farms in Tennessee are less than 180 acres. Along with eggs, the chiles raised Thanksgiving turkeys, heritage beans, honey, and elderberries. Early sales began at farmers markets, but growth required the building of an on-farm store, which now sells products from the farm as well as neighboring operations in the valley. While the Chiles had access to land, that isn't the case for many students. At the beginning, Farmer Academy The economics of renting or purchasing land make commodity farming difficult for the beginner. Having a profitable business plan from the beginning can make the difference.

[Finis Stribling III] So with that, we link them up with this managed extension professionals to help them work through the feasibility and the numbers of whether or not this business is feasible or not. And a lot of times we realize that, you know what? Maybe I need to look at some other aspects of agriculture and help them figure out, you know, the pros and the cons prior to really getting involved and whether or not he's even profitable to get into. So, a lot of times that's the beauty about going through the class. So, we link them up with those resources to help them with those pitfalls. Early on.

[Narrator] Despite the challenges of entering farming, the annual waiting list for slots in the Academy's classes are a sign that interest in starting a farm remains high for market to market. I'm Peter Tubbs.

[Announcer] Next, the Market to Market report.

[Yeager] More contract loads and wheat while harvest high Tide arrives in the cornfields of America for the week. The nearby wheat contract sold off $0.17 and the December corn contract fell by $0.06. The turn in optimism for a breakthrough with China eroded Friday morning in the soy complex. The November soybean contract lost $0.11, while December meal declined 3.60 per ton. December cotton shrank by $1.53 per hundredweight over in the dairy parlor. November class three milk futures shed $0.71. The livestock market was mixed. December cattle gained 803. November feeders put on $20.47, and the December lean hog contract weakened. 327. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was up 126 ticks. November. Crude oil fell $2.33 per barrel. Comex gold added $99.80 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was lower by two and a half points to settle at five 4415. Joining us now, regular market analyst Shawn Hackett. Hello, Shawn.

[Hackett] Hey, Paul. Always an honor to be on your show, as you know.

[Yeager] I appreciate that. Good to see you again. Is the path of least resistance in grains lower? But let's start wheat particular because there doesn't seem to be any supportive story building anywhere.

[Hackett] I agree it's hard to define a catalyst that crops going in the ground overseas. And here we're ready to go into dormancy. There just seems to be. While the balance sheet says we're tight, the trade action says that we have too much wheat and not enough demand. And it's really hard to put a finger on what might change that other than just time.

[Yeager] So, it's a narrative more than numbers.

[Hackett] That's the way it looks right now. I mean, the numbers say, hey, we should be stronger. We should be higher, and yet we just keep going to new lows week after week after week, saying there's something going on with demand that's not supporting the market like it's supposed to be. Maybe it's maybe it's people eating less of the foods that are wheat derived. There's something going on that's hurting the global demand for wheat.

[Yeager] Any advice on what we should be doing if we're still sitting on some wheat that we took out this summer at this price level? 

[Hackett] Paul, you know, under $5 winter wheat, I just don't think this is a time to be moving grain that you don't have to. If you do and you and you've got to pay bills, obviously do what you have to. But I don't think sub $5 winter wheat is what I'd be doing right now.

[Yeager] Corn market are we on offense or defense right now?

[Hackett] We're on defense as of this week because of what's going on with this constant endless trade volatility. We're going to meet with Z. And now it's not going to happen. Maybe it is. And so, you know we're harvesting the crop. We're not going to get data which we're supposed to get this week which should have showed reduction in corn yields. So, with other grain markets falling apart, it's really hard for the corn market to gain traction.

[Yeager] Do you find, though, that those who Pooh poohed government reports in the past are benefiting from this for whatever reason?

[Hackett] Well, when you lose transparency, whether you love the USDA or not, if you lose that transparency, the market withdraws. And our experience is that when you don't have as much data to assimilate, markets tend to go down. So, I think the buyers can gain an advantage so long as the government isn't putting numbers out for the market to assimilate. And the speculators, who tend to key off those reports, like I said this week, we should have gotten a report that could have been pretty constructive. And now it looks like we're not going to have to wait until November before we get some, you know, agronomic data there.

[Yeager] Does this just push the volatility can down the road a lot further, because it's going to take time to sort through what is happening right now.

[Hackett] Yeah I mean it. We don't know when the government is going to open up, but it could take until January before we really get a clear-cut view from the USDA about what this crop looks like. That's a long time from here to there for the market to wait around. And then we're subject to all kinds of headline risk in the meantime.

[Yeager] All right. If you're saying we're playing defense, what are we doing with that chart here? As we look at the March corn four-month chart that is now trending lower again?

[Hackett] The way I'm looking at is this way right now with what we've seen this week, with the uncertainty, if you know, you have to move some grain before the end of the year. I would move it. I would take those bushels, I'd sell it, I'd get the cash. There's no way for us to predict what's going to happen.

[Yeager] But isn't there a there's a sentiment building of commercial storage is going to be expensive if available at all. In some places. Are you rezoning? Is that what you're advising us here?

[Hackett] Well, yeah. I mean, obviously I'm not hearing. Yeah. I mean, paying commercial storage, I wouldn't do if you can store it on the farm, that's fine. If you need to raise cash, but absolutely, at this price level, you know, this is definitely time to be looking for an opportunity to reown those bushels. When it looks like that, we might be reaching the next trough here with whatever's going on this week and beyond.

[Yeager] I've never made math my major, but I'm pretty sure we were going to be up for the week going into Friday and soybeans, and then we're off $0.15. Why? Let's take away Friday's news. We'll talk about that in a minute. Why were we rallying this week?

[Hackett] I think was rallying because we were expecting that we were going to have some exciting trade news in mid late October. Besson had said a big breakthrough was supposed to happen here in October, just a week ago. And then we were going to get a USDA report that was going to show maybe lower yields, and then, you know, it just seemed like we were going to finally get some good news on that front. We had a quarterly grain. Stocks report that showed less soybeans than we thought. And then the wheels came off that we may not even have a talk at all with Trump and Z, and we may not have any meetings at all. And we may get an escalation of the trade war instead of a trade deal. And when you look at the balance sheet of soybeans, if we don't move grain to China, our balance sheet is going to grow. Our ending stocks are going to grow.

[Yeager] Okay. Many things. Let's start with China. Do we need them?

[Hackett] We do need them on soybeans right now okay.

[Yeager] If we don't get them what's an alternative?

[Hackett] Well, we're trying to develop the renewable diesel side of the equation. We did increase those mandates earlier in the year. There's a lot of uncertainty about exactly what that looks like for next year. You know, the political back and forth with all of this. We're trying to get domestic demand going, but it's still not enough. If we have zero exports to China in a given marketing year.

[Yeager] But then it would appear, given we don't have government data, that we kind of need the transparency side, then we think we're going to get some aid. We don't. Then all of a sudden the president says, we're not even going to talk. It appears there's posturing this weekend could be big. Did the market shrug off this post on Friday? Because we've seen this play before. Because I'm not saying $0.15 is not a big deal, but it could have been worse.

[Hackett] Well, I would look at the entire year, Paul. We're basically the same price today as we were in the spring. Yet we've had negative news, nothing good, and the market hasn't really been going down, hasn't gone up either. So, I think we are continuing to discount the tendency of Trump to be playing volleyball with negotiations, and that this may be just another part of that volleyball that he plays in order to get the best deal. Later on in the month, and he could come out next week and say meetings back on things look great. And there we go.

[Yeager] There's a lot of things when it comes to the posturing that happens and the sense that this is a deal in search of we're looking long term. You mentioned last year prices were about the same. What's different between last year and this year?

[Hackett] Last year we weren't in a trade war. We were thinking we might be in one if Trump got in. This year, we're in a trade war. Last year we had a lot of a lot of booked exports to China. This year we have no very little of any exports to China. So, it's a very different story now. Last year we had very, very large carryout on soybeans that are smaller this year, which is actually a good thing. But we just have a ton of more uncertainty, Paul. Just a ton more uncertainty than we did back then.

[Yeager] Because there's plenty of people who are like, why is this any different? It goes back to what you kind of said about wheat. It's sentiment, not numbers, because the numbers should say a certain story.

[Hackett] Absolutely. We are playing the sentiment game right now.

[Yeager] All right. It's not any better for cotton either.

[Hackett] Cotton. We are very reliant on selling exports or selling cotton supplies to China. Even more so than soybeans. And when you have a consumer that's consumer sentiment. That's at some of the lowest levels in history. And you have demand that's showing weakness all over. And cotton is a very, very economically sensitive commodity. And it's competing with synthetic fibers. With crude oil now going under $60 a barrel. Cotton just has a super, super demand side problem that it needs to solve. And it needs a trade deal or better economic conditions in order to get that.

[Yeager] Last week we had the discussion about other crops. You know, whether it's Milo or something else, because wheat, corn, beans just didn't have that optimistic look. It certainly doesn't seem like Cotton's the answer either.

[Hackett] It's not the answer. In fact, I would argue it's even worse because it's more of an economically sensitive commodity, you know, very tied to the economy and very tied to trade with China and elsewhere. So, it's I don't see that being a go to place at all. I really don't.

[Yeager] Do you sense there's going to be I mean, you mentioned January is when we could see things. That's when we start to start getting these acre pictures and we start getting that sense. Are we going to see a dramatically less amount of acres of cotton, beans, corn? What's the big change going to be in 26?

[Hackett] Well, I mean, if prices remain this unattractive through the spring, you know, we're going. And of course, if there's no aid that comes in and there's no trade deal that comes in, the banks aren't going to fund the acres. They're not going to fund it. The acres will be forced down. Whether the farmers want to, you know, don't want to do it or not.

[Yeager] Are they going to keep funding in the live cattle market?

[Hackett] Look, the live cattle market is in a situation where we have a three-pronged supply side story Screwworm 50% tariffs on imported beef from Brazil and the incredibly slow herd rebuild in the U.S. Based upon historical precedent. And even though the beef cutout, prices have been collapsing here, it's still not enough, given that extraordinarily tight supply going into the holidays. So, beef and cattle is a very extraordinarily unusual situation. It's bucking the bearish tide in most commodities right now.

[Yeager] And live cattle is not even the big story of the week. No feeders, $20. I never, ever thought I would say on the week $20 move and it's only a 5.8% move.

[Hackett] Well, that's the thing. When the numbers get bigger, smaller percentages mean larger numbers. But still, on the bottom line of what it means to a cattle rancher for that kind of a price move. It's just big, big numbers we're talking about.

[Yeager] So, if we've got this three-pronged issue, we're just getting started on this, right. this rally?

[Hackett] Well, I mean, right now I don't see anything that's going to change on the Screwworm. He says he's going to talk with Lula to reduce the tariffs. But we now know we can't rely on anything when it comes to trade negotiations. And the herd rebuild cycle is a is a multiyear cycle. I don't really see anything between here and the end of the year that's going to change the supply side of the equation. And even though demand is not the best it could be, it'll be good enough to override the supply of cattle on the market. So, you're looking at the chart. We're it looks like we're breaking out this week on a weekly closing basis. We could be ready for another run higher.

[Yeager] Yeah. Because we were starting to develop a little bit of a lower pattern. And yeah, this kind of threw it off in the in the feed, in the feeder, in the hog market. Sorry. We had more seven-week lows. Are we right now in this picture of this long cattle short hogs hedge?

[Hackett] Well hogs had a good run going. It was getting some momentum. It was starting to actually outperform cattle. And then all of a sudden it just it just caved in. And I just think what's going on there is that we are dealing with a major consumer backing away from demand of all proteins, not just beef. And we're not selling a lot to China, obviously, and we're just backing ourselves up and we're having a hard time finding enough demand for that supply, given that lack of it. And we don't have the same type of supply constraints on the hog market that we do in the cattle market. So very, very ugly reversal picture this week, unfortunately.

[Yeager] Is that a long-term thing here? Is this a technical thing? Since that's really all we're going to have to go with?

[Hackett] I think it is more technical. I mean, we did have a good run. We did break out on the charts. We are coming into some support here. I don't think it's a long-term reversal, but it certainly is an unknown. You know, something that you didn't want to see for the hog guys that were getting some prices that made sense. I do think we can have a run going into the holidays, because the supplies for hogs are not fantastic in terms of they're not growing that rapidly, but definitely a hiccup and definitely something that's going to keep this market at bay for a while.

[Yeager] Last few seconds, the dollar two consecutive weeks, a pretty good gains.

[Hackett] It's not not not desired, not wanted. It only hurts the situation even more at a time. We're trying to move to anybody who wants to take our take our supplies. Having a strong dollar just crimps that even further and makes our prices less attractive. Just a very unfortunate situation of the dollar backing up here.

[Yeager] And lastly, on let's go back to crude oil for a moment. We below 60 bucks for a while.

[Hackett] We traded under 60 today. It's been a long time since we did that. Another sign of weak economic activity. OPEC continues to raise their production and it's not good for anything doing with commodities.

[Yeager] Shawn, good to see you.

[Hackett] Good to see you.

[Yeager] Thank you so much. Shawn Hackett everybody. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue our discussion in an online only segment, search Market Plus with Shawn Hackett. Wherever you get your podcasts to hear that conversation or go to our website of markettomarket.org. We'd love to be with you in the buddy seat at any time. And if that doesn't work, how about you take us along with the option of pulling up our YouTube channel? We'll help keep you company on these long days and nights in the field. Subscribe at youtube.com Market to Market to see the full show Market Plus and other historic offerings from us next week. The U.S. hazelnut industry cracks the code to market expansion. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

[MUSIC]

[MUSIC]
[MUSIC]
[MUSIC]

Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

[MUSIC]

[Announcer] I wouldn't be here without my customers.

Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers. 

They're very dear to our hearts.
It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart. 

[MUSIC]

[Announcer] Tomorrow for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow.

[MUSIC]

[Announcer] Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.