Market to Market - October 17, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market -

China and U.S. officials ratchet up the rhetoric on trade.

Farmers, caught in the middle, roll combines unsure of what’s next. 

The U.S. hazelnut industry cracks the code to market expansion.

And commodity market analysis with Dan Hueber. Next.

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“This is the Friday, October 17, 2025 edition of Market to Market - the Weekly Journal of Rural America.”

Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.  

As the legislative members of the government hold their positions of ‘closed due to shutdown’ it leaves the interpreting of economic tea leaves to experts in foreign governments and private industry. 

Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index fell to its lowest level since May of 2020. The 34.6 mark is well-below the growth neutral threshold of 50.

Seven in 10 bankers surveyed say the president’s approach to Chinese trade is ‘about right.’

Whether you agree or disagree with the strategy, what unfolded this week is setting the stage for meetings in November which is creating high expectations. 

Here’s Peter Tubbs with this week’s trade wrap.  

Tubbs: As America’s farmers harvest their soybean crop, concerns are growing over where the bushels will go.

China continues to avoid U.S. soybeans, preferring to purchase the commodity from Brazil and Argentina. 

The current 90-day tariff truce is set to expire in early November. The White House proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning November 1st, and blocking the import of used cooking oil into the United States.

China placed export controls on many rare earth metals, which are key ingredients in the manufacture of high tech electronics around the world.

A summit in South Korea between the two countries is scheduled for the end of the month.

This week saw more tough talk between the two countries.

Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson: “China consistently opposes the overstretching of national security concepts and discriminatory practices targeting companies from specific countries. The relevant country should genuinely uphold market principles and avoid politicizing economic and trade issues. China’s determination to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests remains unwavering.”

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary: "And make no mistake, this is China versus the world. They have put these unacceptable export controls on the entire world. China is a command and control economy, and we and our allies will neither be commanded nor controlled.

Secretary Bessent suggested that an announcement on a trade relief plan may appear this week. 

Tubbs: During the previous trade war with China, the Trump White House shipped an estimated $60 billion dollars in tariff war relief to U.S. farmers. According to the Council for Foreign Relations those payments were funded by almost all of the tariff taxes collected at the border between 2017 and 2020. 

But new checks for farmers will likely be unable to appreciably close the margin between input costs and sales.

April Hemmes, Hampton, Iowa Farmer: "It's everything everywhere, all at once. It's not just tariffs, it's not just, it's mostly high inputs, but the value of our crops has not kept up with the inflation of the inputs. And then you throw the tariffs on there. And then, you know, when I was doing interviews this spring, I said, ‘I've already bought all my inputs.’ It's this fall when we're really gonna see, you know what happens?

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs

Paul: The hazelnut is the main ingredient in many savory and sweet items as well as enhancing the flavor in others.

The country of Turkiye tops the list for global producers, but the U.S. is looking to break up some of the domination there. 

Oregon’s first commercial orchard was planted in 1903. Today, the state grows nearly all of the nation’s hazelnuts. 

However, growers are facing some obstacles to continued success but they aren’t letting a few challenges get in the way. 

Colleen Bradford Krantz has our Cover Story.

Oregon became America’s hazelnut capital more than a century ago, partially because of what it didn’t have that other areas did: a tree-killing fungus.

But that advantage didn’t last.

Eastern filbert blight, which native hazelnut trees tolerate but which kills European varieties many growers prefer, was accidentally introduced in Oregon in the 1950s. Producers in the state’s Willamette Valley, which had previously benefitted from its geographic isolation, could only watch and wait as the fungus crept across the region.

Nik Wiman, Oregon State University: “It slowly started to move through our industry in the Willamette Valley in the ‘80s through up til recently. But already we had so much infrastructure built around hazelnut production that hazelnut growers really wanted to come up with a solution to that problem.”

Oregon State University researchers set out to breed hazelnut varieties more resistant to the blight. After decades of plant breeding, they succeeded, releasing key new resistant varieties starting in 2008.

Miller Hazelnut Farms, a family operation that has been growing hazelnuts near Hubbard, Oregon since 1944, replaced 16 acres of wheat and seed crops with the new resistant trees. Matt Miller and his family would later add more resistant trees to the mix. 

Matt Miller, Miller Hazelnut Farms: “So now eastern filbert blight wasn’t as much of an issue. So … at that time, grass seed, which is a big crop here in the valley - we’re known as the grass seed capital of the world here - a lot of grass seed markets were in the tank. So they just started planting acres and acres and acres of hazelnuts.”

As hazelnuts can take from seven to 10 years to hit full production, USDA’s count of “bearing acres” shows a notable increase beginning about a decade after the resistant varieties were released. The acreage grew 206% between 2009 and 2024, climbing from 28,700 acres to 88,000 acres.

But success brought new vulnerability. As most of those new orchards were fitting full production volume, President Trump’s first trade war began, setting off a series of events that caused hazelnut prices to drop dramatically.

Matt Miller, Miller Hazelnut Farms: “Historically, Oregon has had a niche market in China for the in-shell hazelnut market. So we sell nuts to China just like this, not shelled. So there’s like a - I think it’s northeast of Beijing - there’s like a cultural area there that they view hazelnuts as sacred. And they liked Oregon hazelnuts because of their size. They’re big. They’re really attractive looking and the quality is the best in the world. So Oregon had this little niche market that was 25% above market price roughly, depending on the year. So at the start of the trade war, we lost 40% of our gross revenue because of that.”

A trade route that had previously allowed the hazelnuts to reach China indirectly without getting hit by a tariff was now closed off.

To add insult to injury, Oregon State experts confirmed in 2024 that the blight had mutated, overcoming the resistance gene in the specially bred hazelnut trees.

Nik Wiman, Oregon State University: “Recently we are learning that there have been some genetic changes in the disease itself that have allowed it to overcome the resistance gene that we relied heavily upon. So we are still really depending on improving our genetics for the long-term sustainability of this industry.”

If Oregon hazelnut growers, who produce 99 percent of the U.S. crop, have proven anything, though, it’s that they don’t give up easily.

Recently, prices have rebounded. The country of Türkiye, the world’s largest hazelnut producer, responsible for about 70 percent of the planet’s crop,  experienced a spring frost and drought, damaging the country’s nut production. In Oregon, these overseas negative weather events helped boost hazelnut prices  by about 40 percent over last year.

Market demand has also begun to shift from  in-shell to shelled hazelnuts. About half of U.S. hazelnuts are still exported, with Canada now the biggest buyer.

Ferrero Hazelnut Company, the Italian maker of the hazelnut spread Nutella and hazelnut chocolates, is the biggest single buyer of Oregon hazelnuts. It announced in November 2024 that it was investing $170,000 toward hazelnut research at Oregon State and a similar amount was sent to Rutgers University. 

Oregon State feels confident they can use biotechnology to accelerate their traditional plant breeding program. Wiman said they hope to then produce trees with multiple genes of resistance through natural plant breeding.

Nik Wiman, Oregon State University: “With gene editing or genetically modified, we still feel that the consumer is not going to be open to either one, especially our target European market. So we’re very cognizant of that. And we are going to use those tools to their greatest effect to assist that traditional breeding program.”

In the meantime, orchard owners can prune and use fungicides to help keep infected trees for much longer than they would have in the past.

Matt Miller, Miller Hazelnut Farms: “Right now what we have going is we have the tools in the toolbox. Forty years ago, when we as an industry first faced this issue, we didn’t know what sprays worked, we didn’t know how to control it. … Now we know how to battle it…. There is blight in these trees, but, depending on how you manage it determines if it will last seven years once you get the blight or 35 years, all on how you manage it.”

Miller has learned that careful planning and patience is key.

Matt Miller, Miller Hazelnut Farms: “I mean all farming is a long-term play, but this is really a long-term play…I mean you plant an orchard and it’s, like I said, ten years to recoup your investment. But farming is the school of hard knocks, no matter how educated you are.”

For Market to Market, I’m Colleen Bradford Krantz.

Paul Yeager: The source of some light at the end of the tunnel is still up for debate, however, prices rallied this week even as harvest rolls on. 

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract added a nickel and the December corn contract improved by a dime. 

Cooking oil and domestic usage dominated the discussion around the soy complex. 

The November soybean contract gained 13 cents, while December meal improved $6 per ton.

December cotton expanded by 51 cents per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, November Class Three milk futures strengthened by 42 cents.

The livestock market was lower. December cattle sold off 70 cents. November feeders cut $4.20 and the December lean hog contract weakened $1.65. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was lower by 50 ticks. 

November crude oil fell $1.26 per barrel. 

COMEX gold added $217.70 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down almost five points to settle at 539 - 50.

Joining us now - regular market analyst Dan Hueber. 

Hello, Dan.

Hueber: Hello. How are you?

Yeager: You know, I stole a little bit of your line. I'm going to give credit where it's due. I always enjoy your newsletter lines. You talked about light at the end of the tunnel?

Hueber: Yes, at the end of this wheat tunnel. I mean, there's light for a couple of these markets, right? We'll start with wheat. Is that light? The Road Runner or the or the actual train coming to get, us the proverbial train. I, I'm going to tend to think it's going to be the former that we finally are seeing markets not being able to kept under pressure. I mean, not that we've rallied significantly by any stretch of the imagination, but for the group, that was the first weekly high or close, I think in four weeks. And again, certainly one week doesn't make a bottom. But, you know, again, we've reached levels that we seem to have some value buying in there. What's really the incentive for the bear? I guess at this point? I mean, we've factored in so much bearish news. In fact, if anything, we're hearing continued and granted, no official word from the USDA, but we're hearing corn yields probably a little bit disappointing as compared to what expectations were. So, you know, like once you factored all that negative news in there, why hang around? I mean, if you're looking to enhance your earnings for the year, you're going to look for another pasture this little greener than the one we're in. So I think it's like I say, the incentive to remain a big bear at this point is becoming less and less every day.

Yeager: And you've waited this long, though, to sell any wheat. You wait a little longer for a little more rally.

Hueber: You know, even from a seasonal standpoint, I'd say certainly, you know, you’re not that we're going to see anything major to, to erupt out of here at this point in time. But yes, I mean, if you, unless you are in a dire situation where you need the cash flow, you know, that's of course another story. People have to have to market when that's the case. But yes, I don't see any urgency to run out and sell something at this point in time.

Yeager: So without the again, take a phrase from you, word of gov. In the corn market, we're just relying on what we see on X or from the neighbor at the coffee shop of how good or not good this corn crop is. Those comments about this crop isn't good if kind of faded, how good the corn crop right now?

Hueber: Well, I think it's going to be a solid corn crop. You know, even in our area, the farmers I've spoken with say, you know, they're good yields. I mean, hardly anything to be disappointed about other than in comparison to where the price levels are at this point in time. So yeah, not that there won't be some problems here or there, but it's just not the records that we factored in. So it's you know, again, when we were talking 186, almost 187 bushel, the acre, you trim back 2 or 3 bushel of the acre, then that can shift that balance sheet significantly. And even there, when you really look at the carryout numbers that are projected domestically, they're saying we're going to have 2.1 billion bushels of corn before we start ratcheting back yields. Will we actually get above 2 billion bushels? You know, I think that's pretty debatable at this point. So when you look at it on the stocks to usage ratio, it's pretty standard. We've been at this level for the last 2 to 3 years. 

Yeager: Well, you mentioned about stocks; let's talk about piles. This is a little bit of an agronomy question Dan in Nebraska wants to know what's the concern level for grain spoilage. As we could still have all this grain sitting around when we begin planting in the spring?

Hueber: You know, of course, most piles tend to want to be picked up by the spring. You know, we corn, you know, regardless if it's even got moisture in it or not. We'll like to sprout in the spring. So I think we'll get it off the ground. I mean, that's, you know, of course, the rule number one or the objective number one for grain elevator operator, you know, it's, you know, tell me what the weather's going to be. Are we going to have a wet, warm winter? If that's the case, then we've got a problem. But if it's a normal winter, then, you know, probably not a big issue.

Yeager: I haven't heard you mention, you mentioned it in wheat, but I also kind of wondered if you could say the same thing about corn light at the tunnel. Bears going into hibernation, journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. What is it right now?

Hueber: And you've covered them all there. So I.

Yeager: Haven't heard you say them yet, so I did.

Hueber: Okay, okay. I think it's the one we've taken that step. I think we were at the point in corn where, you know, domestic usage is still pretty solid. I mean, granted, there's no huge incentive to really kick up or increase production of ethanol at this point in time. But on the same token, the economy continues to churn along. So, I mean, domestic usage is going to remain pretty strong. Not that we couldn't get some upsets in the livestock market as we move along. And I mean, granted, we're now just getting back into the flu season. And of course, we're referring to poultry flu. I mean, are we going to see that flare up again this winter. That's a great unknown. But, you know, all things equal. Yeah, I think we pushed it too far to the downside. We need to start moving, recovering back to the higher.

Yeager: So we don't know exactly who's buying at this point without some of those reports. But were there livestock people buying on this last what maybe they think is.

Hueber: I think livestock. And I think you've probably got Mexico as a very active buyer in here. You know, they, I mean, that is our number one customer. And of course they raise a lot of livestock in that country. So I think they've probably been very avid buyers here. Well, we're not hearing about it. And they were prior to that. I mean that was really the dominant buyer. So they seem to know a bargain when they see one.

Yeager: Is there a bargain in beans or is it the bargain sale about to end?

Hueber: You know, granted a nice close today, but we still haven't gone anywhere. And realistically you look at the soybean market, it hasn't gone anywhere for two years. So we've been really kind of stuck in a 950, 1050 kind of zone on the front side of the futures. Maybe we can get up and challenge that upper range. You know, one thing about the soybean market, we've certainly grown accustomed to not having China in the market. That's the expectation at this point in time. Now China probably needs to buy 8 or 9 million metric tons of beans between now and January to kind of fill out the, the, the period between here and the new crop of South American. If that does turn around, we have a little bit of a trade agreement. So the surprise then is of course friendly. So, you know, not that that takes beans to the moon, but, you know, we could at least push back to that higher side of the range. And we've got a market that's been stuck in a range for that long. If it ever breaks out of it, for whatever reason, South American weather, you know, again, maybe a little surprise business from China. You know, it's probably not going to go 10 or $0.20 extra. It'll probably go another dollar. So I mean, if there's a market that is sitting with a potential for a surprise, it's probably soybeans. But we need that spark to make that happen.

Yeager: So we're bordering on beans in the pre-teens, not in the teens yet. For that, add that dollar because $10 seems to be that level that we've kind of held on to.

Hueber: I mean, when you look at just the November contract, it's been stopped at 1070. I think, for specific times over the last two years. So it's, I mean, that there's definitely a lid there. And like I say, if you ever go through it, you know, things could get exciting for a few days.

Yeager: So I think I'm going to ask you in Plus about domestic usage, but I'll talk about an export story when it comes to cotton right now, because that has been the bears might as well change the market to bear market, because it is constantly that way. Are they done?

Hueber: You know, this week it did reach down, pushed a little bit through lows that it traded back in the spring of this year and really just seemed to stop at that point. So yes, I think we hit a point where there was really no incentive to push them any further. Domestically. You know, it's hard to paint a pretty picture in the cotton market, but when you look at it in a worldwide, we're not looking at overburdened supplies. So it's yes, I think you can make a pretty good case on why at least we're going to stop going down. Granted, we'll need a new story to make him come back up much. But you know, for now, I would think shorts are probably ready to to move to the sidelines.

Yeager: Last week, Shawn and I discussed acres. Is cotton in a position? How long of a, how much of a rally is it going to need before it can buy in? Because there's going to be some areas that are going corn, beans, not going to plant, maybe cotton.

Hueber: Yeah. Boy, cotton is a you know, and again, I've never raised cotton I know it is a very expensive crop to produce. So it's you know, I think it's going to take a little more than what we've seen already to bring that. You know, I think there's probably a greater chance we're going to lose corn and soybean acres in fringe areas than we would be to have cotton take away those acres.

Yeager: So in the live cattle market, that story has been for weeks. Is this it? Then the president comes out and makes comments about trying to help the feeder market. The consumer buying beef that the feeder market didn't respond well to it, but the cattle market kind of had some resiliency. Why?

Hueber: Right. Well, you know, and again, we've had so many problems on availability. You know, of course, we already know domestically we have 70 years low as far as the beef herd. But you know, we're having the trade issues with tariffs on Brazil. You know we have the the screwworm issues. You know, so you know, we don't have any place we can go to to really bring in some available supplies. So until we see the demand really come apart here it's but you know again the reaction the cattle market today was not exactly favorable. And you know, once you have pushed this far, you know that that train could end any day. So it's on tenuous ground already.

Yeager: So we heard in the piece from Peter Tubbs about the, we might hear news. The Treasury secretary, we might hear news next week about beans. President yesterday, on Thursday, said we might hear something about this feeder market. Feeder market seems to think there's already something happening because even though it sold off $4 on the week, that's still a $16 gain in two weeks, right?

Hueber: Right.

Yeager: But is that finally signaling something? Is it outside force having a great impact on this market?

Hueber: Well, you've unsettled you've thrown in a level of uncertainty. It didn't necessarily have before. You know, that said, you know, when particularly when you look at that $16 gain over the last two weeks, that's generally how markets peak. You have kind of a a panic situation where you just accelerate wildly to the upside. And then when it's over, it's over. And you know, sometimes it's over because of an outside shift in the picture. And boy, we're in dangerous territory when it comes to the cattle market. So, you know that could all of them could end in a heartbeat here.

Yeager: So is dangerous more of an aggressive term than saying volatile?

Hueber: I would probably take it one step beyond volatile. Yeah. Volatility doesn't mean you necessarily peak dangerous means you know we're at risk of having the whole party over.

Yeager: That's a flash that you're giving me. Okay. Hog market that has been one that has been moving well, but not really.

Hueber: Had done well up until a couple of weeks ago. I mean, even was a bit non-seasonal. I mean, generally you would have lows when you move into the month of October in the, in the hog market. And here it's, it's of course been trending higher for the last several months, probably more I think in a correction phase at this point in time, I think we'll bounce back. Yes. There's a possibility that the highs we saw a few weeks ago will be they will be the match, the highs for as we move out into next year. But I think we're right at this point in time. We're probably getting a little oversold and due for a correction. Back to the upside.

Yeager: In 30 seconds, which is a bigger story to be watching. For those of us watching commodities, the dollar or gold?

Hueber: Well, the dollar, it’s gold. Gold's a bigger story. I mean, the dollar is probably going to continue to deteriorate, but it's not going to collapse gold. I mean, that's just a guess at this point in time.

Yeager: So I mean the dollar was another, was it another 5% up this week.

Hueber: Or down. or down. Down. Right. Right. Yeah. It finished weaker. But those are ranges we've been in for the last year and a half. You know, it did not break into new territory.

Yeager: So gold was down, was up 5%. Sorry I'll get it right. Thank you Dan Hueber great to see you. Appreciate your time. 

Hueber: Thank you.

Yeager: All right Dan, thank you.

You’ve been watching the analysis segment and in a moment we will continue our discussion in an online only segment. Search Market Plus with Dan Hueber wherever you get your podcasts to hear that conversation or go to our website of markettomarket.org. 

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Next week, wrapping up the events of our 50th season. 

Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

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