Market to Market - October 31, 2025

Paul Yeager: Coming up on Market to Market - A trade trip nets optimism while details and documents are left incomplete. The cattle market retraces after sorting the import story. The competition for bragging rights in the world of the giant pumpkin. And commodity market analysis with Sue Martin. Next.

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Announcer: “This is the Friday, October 31, 2025 edition of Market to Market - the Weekly Journal of Rural America.”

Paul Yeager: Hello. I’m Paul Yeager.   

Government issued economic data remains a casualty of the shutdown of most operations inside the U.S government. 

Reports on durable goods and the PCE - the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve - were left un-issued this week. Saturday would have marked the first day no SNAP benefits would be issued under the current shutdown. However, two federal judges issued an injunction Friday to keep the money flowing. The Fed did lower the key interest rate by a quarter point, the second consecutive cut this year. But the biggest news came from the anticipation and meeting of President Trump and some of his Asian counterparts. 

The Chinese announced a purchase of U.S. soybeans hours before a meeting between presidents Trump and Xi. The president rated that meeting a 12 on a scale of 1 to ten, but questions remain - what did the U.S. give China in the negotiation and when will there be a signed document on the verbal agreement.

Whether your optimism is tempered or not, the market loved the deal. 

Peter Tubbs reports. 

President Donald Trump, United States: "Large amounts, tremendous amounts of the soybeans and other farm products are going to be purchased immediately, starting immediately. If you notice, President XI authorized yesterday for China to start."

Peter Tubbs: The details of the announcement included a promise to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans in the final months of 2025, and a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. 

If realized, the deal would return Chinese soybean purchases to near the average of 26.6 million metric tons the country imported between 2011 and 2024. China purchased 27 million metric tons in 2024. 

This year, China purchased 5 million metric tons of soybeans before halting purchases in May. 

Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association, had this comment:

Caleb Ragland, President, American Soybean Association: “Today’s announcement is great news for American agriculture, and soybean farmers are extremely grateful to President Trump for making soybeans a priority in negotiations with China.” 

Tubbs: The status of Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products remains in word only as details and documents are still unclear as is the status of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. The president has stated he will drop the duty on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% but he has yet to do so.

Late week, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins added more information to the administration’s announcement.

Sec. Brooke Rollins, USDA: I think is a is a huge, huge win for our soybean farmers in the short term, but the long term the conversations have to continue. We can't be so reliant on one market for our farmers to sell in because hopefully we're happy kumbaya-ing together for a long time with China but we may not be.”

Tubbs: China has purchased about 25% of the U.S. soybean crop over the last 15 years.

The cattle complex is still sorting last week's news about increasing imports from Argentina and other impacts the administration may have had in the futures and cash markets.  

Dr. Derrell Peel/Oklahoma State University: “we're in such a tenuous political and, and economic environment broadly speaking, that the market is just really sensitive and really jumpy about anything.” 

Tubbs: A meeting with top agricultural officials from the U.S. and Mexico ended with no changes to the border policy keeping Mexican cattle from being imported into the U.S. and keeping domestic supplies in the feedlot tight mostly because of concerns over the New World screwworm.

Even if U.S. imports of Argentine ground beef increase, the amount is just over two percent of all beef imported into the country and only part of the supply story.  

Dr. Derrell Peel/Oklahoma State University:  “the first seven months of the year, Brazil was the largest source of imports, more than ten times as much imports as Argentina, but similar product. And as with most of our beef imports, the bulk of that product is lean processing type beef that goes largely into our ground beef markets. And, because of the, and of course, that supplements our domestic supplies of, we call it nonfed beef. So cull cows and bulls that make up the lean part of our ground beef mixes in the U.S. We absolutely have to have those imports, too, in order to sustain a critical ground beef market in the U.S. Forty to 45% of our total beef consumption in this country is ground beef.”

Peel adds prices for all cuts are going to rise because of the factors pushing on the market right now - a limited supply of live animals because of herd liquidation due to drought. 

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs

Yeager: Charlie Brown has plans tonight to wait for the Great Pumpkin. 

Or he could go visit the UK’s Paton twins - Stuart and Ian for their newly achieved world-record heaviest pumpkin of 2,819 pounds. 

Genetics are a part of the trend to bigger gourds, but patience and luck help in the harvest.  Here’s Josh Buettner with our Cover Story. 

Cameron Palmer/Emcee – Half Moon Bay World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off: “Alright, are you guys ready?  Travis Gienger, of Minnesota, here you go! What do we got? Two-four-seven-one!”

Josh Buettner: After another cross-country haul, the current giant pumpkin world record holder fell short of his 2,749-pound feat from 2023, but still managed to top the scales last year at the annual Half Moon Bay, California World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off.  It’s a meticulous feat he’s achieved 4 of the past 5 years competing with mostly west coast growers.

Travis Gienger/Anoka, Minnesota/1st Place - 2,471 Lbs: “I’m using a lot of biologicals.  Mycorrhiza, bacillus blends, when I’m burying these vines – and a special blend of potting soil…and then the roots just scream out the side.”

Often referred to as the Superbowl of giant pumpkins…

Cameron Palmer/Emcee – Half Moon Bay World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off: “He’s going to get a check for 22-thousand…”

…Half Moon Bay touts big prize money.

Cameron Palmer/Emcee – Half Moon Bay World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off: “Come on up!”

Buettner: Nine dollars per pound for 1st place, and up to 30-thousand dollars for setting a new world record. Gienger fell short this year, when his potential prize winner split in the field.  Last year’s second place winner moved up to claim top prize. 

Brandon Dawson/Sonoma County, California/2nd Place - 2,4765 Lbs: “You’re not going into it thinking, hey I’m going to make a profit or something like that, but if you do, that’s a bonus, right?  It’s really for the camaraderie of the community of growers.  Everybody shares the secrets and shares the growing tips and shares seeds.”

Leonardo Urena/Napa, California/3rd Place - 2,390 Lbs: “Trading seeds is important and we always prepare for…to invite new growers.  It’s like me, you know… We always carry them and just hand them out.”

Buettner: Decades ago, in Mexico, University of Michigan archaeologists unearthed the earliest known proof of western agriculture – pumpkin-related squash seeds. When Christopher Columbus arrived, they were a common indigenous crop, with several varieties native to the Americas. Shipping them all back to Europe resulted in various cultural connotations – and larger tropical and subtropical specimens began to realize further potential when unleashed in northern soils. But it was William Warnock, of Goderich, Ontario, Canada, who kicked the door wide open – growing World’s Fair world records in 1893 and 1900.  Long before the gateway arch graced the city’s skyline, lighting struck a third time, as Warnock notched his final world record in St. Louis

Adam Kloppe/Public Historian – Missouri Historical Society: “This is an exhibit that explores the history of the 1904 World’s Fair.  It’s one of the largest events in St. Louis’ history.  Over 19 million people came to St. Louis to visit the World’s Fair and to see people, products and ideas from all over the world.”

Missouri Public Historian Adam Kloppe says Warnock’s crowd-pleasing 403-pound mammoth squash, or giant pumpkin, was a record that held for over 70 years.

Adam Kloppe/Public Historian – Missouri Historical Society: “After the fair, it was bought by the Rennie Seed Company, of Toronto, for $10, and then they sold the seeds for 25 cents under the name ‘Goderich Giant’.”

Buettner: Though Pennsylvanian Bob Ford grew a 451-pounder in 1976, it was another Canadian, Howard Dill of Windsor, Ontario, who broke the dam for the modern era. Dill’s father had given Goderich Giant seeds a whirl, and passed the torch to Howard.  After logging 459 and 493 ½ pound world records in 1980 and ’81, respectively, Howard patented his selectively bred “Dill’s Atlantic Giants”- the genetic basis for all world record giant pumpkins today.

Howard Dill/Windsor, Nova Scotia - Canada: “You never know who’s out there that’s going to come up big. And with the seeds, there’s no limit to what the potential of these things may grow to.  If somebody has a little bit of luck and a good growing season…who’s to know?”  

Buettner: Growers jumped on the bandwagon, associations formed, and standards were drawn up to coordinate Columbus Day weigh-offs at sites in the U.S., U.K. and Canada.  

Tom Norlin/Founder – Ryan Norlin Giant Pumpkin Weigh-Off/Hopkinton, Iowa: “Howard was a really nice fella.  He would always take the time to talk to you.  I know he was a busy man.  He told me once – everybody was constantly reaching out to him.  The phone never quit ringing.”

Buettner: Infighting gave birth to a new standard-bearer, The Great Pumpkin Commonwealth, or GPC.  Anamosa, Iowa’s memorial Ryan Norlin Weigh-Off, named in honor of co-founder Tom Norlin’s nephew and helper, was one of the early sanctioned sites.

Tom Norlin/Founder – Ryan Norlin Giant Pumpkin Weigh-Off/Hopkinton, Iowa: “We were always told that we were probably not going to be able to grow as large of pumpkins as they were growing in southern Canada, New England, Minnesota…but that has proved really not to be the case.”

Buettner: Norlin has since stepped aside, but his brother Greg and family have continued to build and honor their son Ryan’s memory.

Pete Caspers/Treasurer & USA Central Region Representative – The Great Pumpkin Commonwealth/Pesota, Iowa: “This is one of the original 4 sites.  I mean, winning Anamosa, that’s like…top-notch right there.”

Sanctioned sites, grower methods and plant genetics have grown exponentially since the 1980’s.  World records have been broken almost 30 times.  

Don Young/2009 Half Moon Bay Winner – 1,658 Lbs./Des Moines, Iowa: “This is all just witchcraft anyway, but…There’s a little bit of vibration here, but it’s going to weigh more than it estimates.”

Buettner: Iowan and GPC Hall of Famer Don Young, who fell short of an official 2007 world record by just 27 pounds, says he was the first Midwesterner crazy enough to venture out and win Half Moon Bay.  That 2009 milestone was a calculation based in-part around the kind of bluffing and misdirection some growers are known for.

Pete Caspers/Treasurer & USA Central Region Representative – The Great Pumpkin Commonwealth/Peosta, Iowa: “It’s chess.”

Buettner: On Young’s heels, Pete Caspers holds Iowa’s state record: 2,424 pounds.  He regularly captures top spots at regional weigh-offs - which promote unique festivities and help boost local economies.

Pete Caspers/Treasurer & USA Central Region Representative – The Great Pumpkin Commonwealth/Peosta, Iowa: “Don Young, he was Mr. Iowa.  Then before Don Young it was Bob Ruff, from Garnavillo, Iowa.  I mean they’re both in books, and it’s like…It’s kind of my turn, I think.”

Buettner: As Caspers claws his way up the food chain, Half Moon Bay is on his bucket list.  Database technology may have made simultaneous, same day, worldwide weigh-offs go by the wayside, but the prestige remains.

Reporter: “So what now? What’s the giant pumpkin equivalent of ‘I’m going to Disneyland’?”

Travis Gienger/Anoka, Minnesota/1st Place - 2,471 Lbs: “Yeah, this IS the giant pumpkin of I’m going to Disneyland.”

For Market to Market, I’m Josh Buettner.

Yeager: The Senate voted three times this week to limit the president’s move to use his emergency powers to increase tariffs on China and Brazil. For the week… The nearby wheat contract gained 22 cents and the December corn contract added 8 cents. Soybeans seemed to be along for the ride on the trade and tariff express. The January soybean contract improved 55 cents, while December meal put on $27.50 per ton. December cotton expanded by $1.36 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, December Class Three milk futures fell by a dime. The livestock market was lower. December cattle sold off $4.25. January feeders cut $16.28 and the December lean hog contract weakened 62 cents. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was higher by 88 ticks. 

November crude oil dropped 69 cents per barrel. COMEX gold lost $101.80 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down almost five points to settle at 556 - 90. Here now, to lend us his insight on these and other trends is one of our regular Market Analysts, Sue Martin. 

Sue Martin: Hi there Paul.

Yeager: This week. The story continues to be one that kind of falls to the back burner. We just aren't focused on it. It was, was it on. Why was it along for the ride with corn this week.

Martin: Well I think wheat was you know, first off we had a nice, good rally in oats. There's that old saying, oats know, but wheat and oats fell apart. And even in one day lost $0.25 at one time. And then the wheat market took off and started to confirm. And I think what it is you've priced in all the good crops that have been produced around the world. There isn't much more negative news to throw at this market. And so I think the wheat market has made a bottom, and I expect better times ahead here for this wheat market.

Yeager: Even maybe a way to attract buyers, possibly late in the day was part of the story. But let's move to corn because for a minute, if I blanked out, I thought maybe you were talking about corn. Weathered. The storm continues to fight, and have we maybe turned the corner?

Martin: I think corn's in a corrective phase at this time. It lacks maybe some nice news as far as the China U.S. agreements. It wasn't. The tariffs were pulled off of that, off of corn. But on the same token, there was no talk about it. And sorghum was a huge benefactor in this negotiation. And I'm not surprised sorghum is so dirt cheap. I mean, corn's cheap sorghum is much cheaper and we have a lot of it. So I'm not surprised at that. But the corn market, I think as we go forward in time, you know, we've had less feed usage because of animals not coming in across the border. And yes, we're feeding animals heavier, but a lot of feeders haven't made it here to consume corn. So I think that's one change we're going to see here in time. When I look at the markets, it's funny how this for 47 area four, 4440 area is like a tough area. I will say to producers, if you have sold cash and you're looking to buy back, which many of them are, and we estimate that the corn farmer is probably 30, 35% sold. I would recommend going as far out as you can. So July this year, last year we thought, you know, you'd have a rally into January. Whatever. This year is different. I think this year we're going to see highs more in the summer. A year of a six, the last well since 1916. So we'll have 11 of them. One year made a high in June. That was 2016. One year made a high in May, three made a high, on July 2nd made a high in August and two in September and two in December. So the favoritism is more towards the heart of summer this coming year. We've got one more step. We're going to go further with that study, and we're going to pull out once we can get the USDA up and working those numbers. Back, pull out data and of course we can get old data back. And we want to take a look at those years and the years of a five before it. Take a look at stocks to usage exports. Just various different fundamentals. And I'm wondering if there isn't going to be something similar in many of those years to kind of guide us even more like, will this be a July high? I don't think it's going to be a June. So we're telling producers, if you're in options, you know, go at least to July, you may have to roll once, but that's where we're at.

Yeager: So it sounds like a technical story in corn, but in beans it sounds like I mean, all this talk is about fundamentals. It's about China. It's about enforcement. It's about are they going to follow through? Are they, are they, are they, pick a question Sue. You can go with it.

Martin: Well first off, my take on this time around and I tend to be an optimist. So I digress. But China knows President Trump pretty well. And the last time around, when they finally agreed to the phase one agreement, then they went into lockdown for three years. Who would have thought three years. And it was because Sino Grain, a lot of their granary managers had been lying and they were finding out that their granaries were nearly empty. And so they knew food was very critical. Plus the fact, trying to, you know, curb COVID. And then also President Xi wanted to make sure he got reelected after that was over with. Then the country came out of lockdown, took three years. So but this time, you know, they after they got past that COVID situation and into a new president, they weren't held accountable. They were let go. And so why wouldn't they take advantage of that this time around. It's not going to be that way. And I thought it was interesting. 25 million metric tons of beans for each year. The next three years. That's when President Trump goes out of office. Now they're going to relook at things in a year. And that's going to be very critical. But I think they'll follow up on this, at least for the next year. And truthfully, Brazilian beans have already dropped $0.50, so they're now the cheapest from January forward in the world.

Yeager: Which has been what we've been fighting to for all of this. So real quick on Sue on beans, Sue, I mean, are we going to do you need us to hold right now?

Martin: I think the bean market's still going to try to kind of grind its way higher. Now that we're over $11 on January beans for example. Even a lead contract of beans continuous, there's a gap from around 1120. Let's see here 1129 to 1137. And I think you go after that gap, then it's the 1160 area, something like that. But beans have been inside range all year, and you had to ask why when last year we had Chinese buying, but not this year. And last year we didn't have tariffs and we did this year, and yet we couldn't take out those lows that seemed awful strange. I think China, we have to keep in mind China can use our Board of Trade just as well as we can, and they're probably using it as they deal with marketing over in Brazil. Now, I've also understand that they've washed out of some cargoes here just recently, and I suspect those are, Cargill's, cargoes that would have shipped by the end of December.

Yeager: And that's what one of those concerns is going forward. That could happen again. We need to go to livestock because that was still a big story from last week. I want to start out of order a little bit and talk more about heifers. Joel in Oklahoma wants to know retain or buy heifers this fall for breeding next year at these prices, or wait?

Martin: I'm going to tell him to wait. And the reason I say that when I was on the show last time and it was actually the show where we were doing the 50th, I talked about, I thought we'd see higher highs in September. We didn't make the higher highs in September. Instead, we had an inside down month, and then we came back in October, took out the lows of September, and then flew and took out and made new all time highs on every single contract, with the exception of taking out the August contract high in August. So the market, I believe, has topped and the psychology has changed. And I one thing we have to keep in mind, going back to 2000, not 2000, 1975, 76, every year, a first off, in those years, I would have to say there were four other years similar to this one where the June contract made the highs for the year. Then the August came up and took the June highs out and made higher highs. One of those years. Now, two of those years have made the high. In August, one of those years put the high in in September, one in October and one in November. All of the years broke into December, and I think our market's going to go down in December. I don't care if we make an inside up month in November. I think it's going to roll right back over and fall. I think the one thing so I'm thinking that he'll get a better chance to buy heifers cheaper next year than this year. Now, a year of a six, we're ending a year of a six. Next year, all of them has taken since 1975-76. Every one of them has closed lower at the end of a year of a six than you did at the end of a year of a five.

Yeager: Which could be part of the. We have to ramp up and try to expand and retention, and all these things are going on. I'll get into that a little bit, but I need to ask you, in the final few seconds about hogs, they went lower this week. Is this still just a response to what's been going on with beef?

Martin: I think a little bit. And I think the hog market is, we're, seems like we're following with Marketings and what have you similar to what the pig crop report indicated. So the USDA might be a little more on target this time, but I do think the hog market's in line for a nice little corrective rally. Will it be one that holds us all the way into February? A lot of times you'll rally hogs into February, but I think you'll rally, pull back, and then we might try to make another effort. But I wouldn't sell hogs here. I wouldn't do that.

Yeager: You'd be holding just a tiny bit longer.

Martin: I think so.

Yeager: Well I have great questions here and a lot more. I know that's on your brain that we'll get to here in a few minutes.

Martin: So, you know, that brain could be shallow.

Yeager: Well, we'll find out here in a little bit. Thanks, Sue. Great to see you. All right. That's Sue Martin everybody. And you have been watching the analysis segment in a moment. We are going to continue in that online only segment that we call Market Plus. So here's how you find it. Search Market Plus with Sue Martin. Wherever you get your podcast to hear that conversation. Or here's a different way, go on to our website of markettomarket.org. We have the transcript right there. I want to let you know that our Facebook page has been a place for much back and forth over the news of the day here. Recently. This week we posted links to that 50th Anniversary Show program that featured 11 of our analysts who was just talking about it because she was on it as well. Join in on that Facebook page, see what else is there when you follow market to market. Next week, we are going to look at. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

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