Market Analysis with Mark Gold

Yeager: This week's WASDE was a mixed bag bearish for coarse grains but bullish for oilseeds. As USDA reported a higher corn yield and fewer soybean acres. The nearby wheat contract fell $0.08, and the September corn contract added a penny. Fewer soybean acres were reported by USDA, and a smaller stocks number gave a boost to the soy complex. The nearby wheat contract fell 8 cents and the September corn contract added a penny.  

Fewer soybean acres were reported by USDA and a smaller stocks number gave a boost to the soy complex. 

The September soybean contract added 55 cents, while September meal improved $6.80 per ton.

December cotton expanded by 94 cents per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, September Class Three milk futures declined a quarter.

The livestock market was mixed. October cattle added $4.67. September feeders put on $6.97 and the October lean hog contract fell 58 cents. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index dropped by 31 ticks. 

September crude oil lost 98 cents per barrel. 

COMEX gold decreased $78.30 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was down by more than 3 points to settle at 535 - 85.

Joining us now, regular market analyst Mark gold. Hi, Mark.

Mark Gold: Paul. Nice to be here again.

Yeager: Well, is it nice given this week? I mean, the mud, the names being thrown around for these markets are things we cannot say on television.

Gold: No we can't.

Yeager: Let's start with the thing that hasn't been positive for a long time. And that's the wheat market. It just seems to be, no matter what is said, grown, sold to, ‘catch a falling knife’ was the term I saw emerge again this week? Is that the. Is that the case?

Gold: Well, it's been pretty tough. We can't get rid of it. The dollar's been still relatively strong. It's backed off. We were over 100 points the other day. We're back down to 97.5 roughly. So that helps. The old low was 96. We needed under 96 again to take a shot at 90. And that could really help the wheat market out here. But when you look at who's growing wheat all over the world, the big surpluses, big crops, it's hard to make any inroads into that.

Yeager: And that's, there's a couple of questions that came in asking, you know, we had a look at more acres, but it's like we didn't plant as much wheat this year. What if we would have and what if we will next year. So do you think this is no condition to expand next year? Is it?

Gold: I don't see that right now. I think you've got to wait till the overall environment changes a little bit. You know, if we could get India to come on board and buy some wheat from us instead of Russia, that would certainly be helpful. But we don't really see, you know, a whole lot there that's going to turn this market around unless there's a major weather problem somewhere in the world. But it's been tough and I don't see it getting great. But if we can get the corner rally, maybe the wheat will go with it.

Yeager: I'm going to steal this from, well, first I'll ask you, there, about, at this, at 527 on December. What's a strategy that you should be looking at?

Gold: You know, it's really tough to get people to be excited about buying put options at these low levels. I don't see it going a whole lot lower. Hopefully the dollar will keep moving lower, and I think we've kind of found a bottom in here a little bit. It's been tough though. Every time it looks like it's a bottom, we make another new bottom. We've broken through some good technical signals to make new lows, but I. Are we going to go to 475? Are we going to go to $4? I don't see it. But as a risk manager, like I always say, at these kind of levels, buy a cheap put and hope you don't need it.

Yeager: Let's move to corn. If we could. The September contract somehow held on for a penny gain. How is that possible?

Gold: December closed down a penny for the week. You know, I called the report the Gomer Pyle report. ‘Surprise, surprise surprise.’ We had three surprises in that report. And the yield at 188.8 I don't see that that's going to be the final yield. Usually when the USDA comes out with a big number early, they tend to shave it over the next couple of months. I think that's what we're going to happen here. They're looking at these satellite pictures and deciding, look, it's green. It's tall, it's good. And I don't believe that. I think it's green. It's tall, but it might not be good. I think you see a lot of issues with this tar spot with this tassel wrap and some other significant problems out there. A lot of tip back in some of these fields. So are we, does that make a 189 yield? I don't see that. But I think it's going to come down in time. I think what's important for the American farmer is the last couple of days, the reason we have been able to close within striking distance of last week is because the funds have started to cover some shorts in here, and that's a good thing for the market. They're still short about 130,000 contracts. I didn't see the commitment of traders as of Friday night, yet, but if we get a point where we're even close to getting the funds out of these short positions between now and harvest, you've got to take a strong look at marketing some grain up there on that rally, because we're still going to have to get through the harvest. It's still going to be a big crop. Where are we going to put it all? And the and the other problem is how much is still left on the farm from last year.

Yeager: Well, that's what I wanted to ask you about. We have had some export sales. Yeah. Do we have enough in the offing that can, can help keep us from falling any further here?

Gold: Well, you've got a 2 billion plus carryout out here, which is a big number. We need to see some new demand either year round. Ethanol E15. We've got to do something positive for this corn market to start whittling down these these numbers out here. If we could get a deal with China, it would still be helpful for the corn and the beans, maybe even wheat. So there are a lot of moving pieces right now. We've got to see what the result of the summit between President Putin and President Trump. I don't think there will be anything concrete there. I don't see Zelenskyy giving up any land. We saw what happened in World War II before World War II, when Chamberlain appeased Hitler and gave him the Sudetenland. They don't want to make that same mistake again. And Europe is very well aware of that. So I don't know that if anything positive is going to come out, which tells me that he'll continue to put tariffs on Russia, he'll continue to penalize China if they buy oil from Russia and India buying oil from Russia. That's not good. If we can solve that problem, then maybe things can pick up.

Yeager: Usually when we talk about China, it's always about beans. But you're saying there's still that possibility they might be buying some more corn.

Gold: Yeah, it's possible out there.

Yeager: So then with beans then with no trade deal in sight. Yeah. What is buoying this market?

Gold: Well when you cut, you know, 2.5 million acres. Excuse me. You cut 2.1 million acres out of the bean crop. Yeah. They raised the yield a little bit. But now with the carryout we're looking at is 290, lose one bushel an acre between now and harvest. And you got very tight stocks out there. So I think that's what's moving the bean market, I think it's legitimate if we get a carryout somewhere 250 or less. Now we've got something that can push these markets to reasonable levels.

Yeager: And late Friday they're starting to be the word. This weather might actually become a story in the soybean market. It's starting to show up a dry part in Illinois that could spread. The farmers that I talked to this week at the Iowa State Fair, they all had words to say about the corn. But the beans, they all kept saying, I just don't see it there. Yeah. Does Chicago believe that it's there yet?

Gold: I think the vast majority of people do. You can't have this amount of rain on the crop up to this point, and not expect a pretty good crop. This is, I think, the first year, and I don't know how many years there isn't one county in Iowa that's in drought. From Thursday's report, there's been a lot of rain, but now we're getting to the pod filling stage on the beans. This next two weeks is critical. And if we turn hot and dry, we're going to knock something off these yields. So. I think the beans have got a chance in here. I'm hopeful on the beans okay.

Yeager: So that's a hopeful. Holding? Selling? What are you doing here?

Gold: Well you know at this point you got to keep it cheap. What we've rolled down puts. We did make some cash sales on Thursday which we were happy with. We had a nice 65 cent rally in the beans. Okay. We sold 5% of our guaranteed bushels. That's just rewarding the market a little bit for what they've done out here. We still have an awful lot of beans left to sell. And if we do continue to move higher, we're going to continue to sell more grain until we can get those cash sales made. We're going to keep it put underneath us just in case something happens. If we don't get a trade deal.

Yeager: What's happening in live cattle, because you keep adding to this contract and there's no reason to think that this party is over, is it?

Gold: Well, Secretary Rollins came out and said they're going to build this facility. And outside of Austin or near the border somewhere, and that they're not going to bring in any Mexican cattle. Yesterday, the rumor was that they might open it up. We broke hard and the cattle came back today very strong. It's the wrong time of month to be making highs. We usually make the highs the last Thursday or Friday of the month. So the back's beef made new highs after breaking $30, $35. It came back just under $400 this morning. It's unprecedented. Now we're getting some of that last minute Labor Day buying out here. But is the American housewife not going to go to something else, whether it's poultry or pork or fish or pasta or somebody's something else? I think they will soon.

Yeager: I look at the prices every Saturday morning when I go and do the shopping and look and see that those, the protein, the chicken is still high. The pork is, is, I don't see everybody buying that yet. They're still buying beef, but just not as much anecdotal. I know. That's for another day. Let's talk feeders for a minute because again, the conversation this week has been about where can you find them? You find them, but can you find enough to lean into this rally?

Gold: Not yet, but this. Do you have to understand about markets? Is the markets will turn before the fundamentals justify it? We've seen that time and time again, whether it's in the grains or in the livestock. So people continue to say there's no cattle out there, there's no cattle out there. And all of a sudden the prices will go down. It'll be because, in my opinion, that the demand at the retail level, Mrs. America isn't going to buy high priced beef. I mean, it's, it's not just high priced beef. It's historically high beef. And I think when it comes to a choice between hamburger or, you know, blending in some pork to make a meatloaf or something, that's going to happen more often out here. I think people once we get past the Labor Day weekend and the grilling backs off, steak prices will come down. So I think we're in a period now. The next two weeks could be strong, but I've been saying that for six months.

Yeager: So quickly. On hogs 10 seconds here. I mean, this didn't quite have much of a rally this week.

Gold: No. And I, I think the hogs are kind of a dog in this market, but, you know, we've got plenty of hogs. We need to see a little bit more demand. And I think that's coming. So I think that will help the hogs in the long run.

Yeager: We'll see. We got to have something to talk about when we have you back. All right. Mark Gold, thank you so much. Good to see you.

Gold: Good to see you. Nice to be here. 

Yeager: Mark Gold everyone. And you have been watching the analysis segment. And in a moment we will continue in a discussion that's online and it's only there online search Market Plus with Mark Gold. Wherever you get your podcasts to hear that conversation. Or you can go to our website of markettomarket.org. 

Sunday, August 24th, 2025 will be the final edition of our 50th season tour. We are celebrating here in Johnston and you are invited. Get all the details by going to our website at Markettomarket.org and scroll all the way to the bottom of the page. You can RSVP for free, but seats are limited. We do look forward to seeing you there. 

Next week we will look at a school that won't let agriculture be secondary. Even at the primary level. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week!

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