Market Analysis with Naomi Blohm

Yeager: What was thought to be a large crop - stayed that way when USDA released new data Friday even as whispers ahead of the report said otherwise. 

For the week… 

The nearby wheat contract was mostly flat and the December corn contract added 3 cents. 

Export sales remain limited in the soy complex. The January soybean contract improved 8 cents, while December meal added $5.40 per ton. December cotton contracted by $1.06 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, December Class Three milk futures weakened by a quarter. The livestock market was mixed. December cattle fell by $2.20. January feeders added 97 cents and the December lean hog contract weakened 90 cents. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was lower by 17 ticks. December crude oil improved 32 cents per barrel. 

COMEX gold found $79.30 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up nearly 3 points to settle at 556 - 75.

Here now, to lend us her insight on these and other trends is one of our regular Market Analysts, Naomi Blohm.  How did you handle the last 45 days without official data information?

Naomi Blohm: As someone who talks to farmers and clients on a regular basis. Yeah. So we had to rely heavily on farmer content as far as understanding where cash basis had been keeping an eye on those weekly export inspection report was really helpful and the weekly ethanol reports. But in general, it was definitely hard to know for sure where a lot of our demand was or wasn't. And of course, trying to understand exactly where the supply of this harvested crop ultimately was was definitely the biggest challenge of all. You've been here before ahead of large reports. Would you say that this today's Friday's report was the most anticipated in quite some time, for all of the reasons you just said? Yes, absolutely. Traders have been just waiting for this report, waiting for every single piece of data that came out on it, from the production side to the demand side. And so finally, we have something to work with. Now, what was interesting that is actually in true November, USDA was the form hesitation. The report was a dud. And usually the November report is a dud. And that's what the USDA gave us today. When you compare it to what we were given in September. Of course, we didn't have the October report. So the big surprise is, of course, not as much of a production cut as we were anticipating on corn and supplies. Still deemed large, and we didn't get a lot of big new tweaks on the demand side of things, too. And so that's where the market had the pull back lower for prices, because we just did not have enough actual friendly news to keep that momentum going higher.

Yeager: I think you wrote earlier this week that there was going to, there's been data acquisition throughout all of this shutdown, right? Yes. And so that's what was our understanding was that, so some of this information the USDA had been maybe trying to piece together, there was a skeleton crew working, but it was just a question of how much data did they actually have behind the scenes.

Blohm: And with a skeleton crew working, how much, you know, time could they put it together, how quickly could they put it together? So I'm sure that this report will be debated as far as, you know, how they came to pass with all of the numbers and we'll get another fresh look in December on that. And that one I'm very confident will be a little bit more, you know, for sure concrete and more reliable information.

Yeager: Well, wheat looks like volatility ahead, is that right? 

Blohm: Yes. So the wheat report today, what was surprising on it was actually from the global scale. We knew that the USDA was going to most likely increase production for global countries. But they picked five countries. And so that was enough to raise global ending stocks I think a little bit more than what the market was anticipating. And then with the U.S., they also increased U.S. ending stocks so that along with the seasonal tendency for wheat future prices to work lower at the end of November, the market came crashing down. We had a nice rally, but all good things come to an end and unfortunately it is late November here now approaching. And that's oftentimes when the grain markets see a pullback was the biggest whisper ahead of corn in your mind of that this crop. We're going to see it in report that it is not as big. Yes I think the market was definitely anticipating that 183 to 184. And we had been pricing it in for yield. So when they gave us the 186 number today, it was just a big letdown. I mean, they acknowledge the situation that the yield is definitely starting to trend lower. But it's in November. So they only do baby steps. So we're going to likely see more production cuts I think coming ahead in December I think a bigger one coming in January based on my client conversations. I still think this yield number needs to get down to 180 or 181, because this year when I talked to clients, it was the most sporadic for answers that I have heard in a long time. As far as where their production was coming in, there was there was no specific trend. It was so variable. So I do think the yield is going to come down for corn, but it's going to take until January. And in the meantime we're stuck with this perception of 2 billion bushel carryout. So it's going to keep the market in check. But we did see the USDA increase export demand for corn today - 3 billion bushels. So that's really exciting. And just be patient with corn. We'll probably have a little pullback for the next two weeks. But then I think it'll start to gear up and rally again. 

Yeager: You said the T word before we started rolling about technicals. Did we blow through a technical signal on corn this week? What's the significance of that? 

Blohm: Yeah. So earlier this week we were able to trade through some overhead resistance on the charts. But now today we finished back below it. So it was exciting. It was looking like if we have some fresh bullish news on the report today that the market was going to have some further upside potential. But just with the lack of positive friendly news, we saw the pullback and looking at December corn futures. Next support is 325 and below there we might get back to 320 or 420. Excuse me. And that would be a significant, significant buying point. There's multiple moving averages there. And that is the bottom of an uptrend line. So again, November there is that expression that the bears get Thanksgiving. And and that is part of a seasonal for corn soybeans and wheat that prices have a tendency to work lower into the end of November ahead of first notice day for December corn futures. But after that, let me tell you the bulls do get Christmas. 

Yeager: Are the bulls, it really seems the bears are in charge of the soybean complex right now?

Blohm: There's no bulls anywhere to be found after today. There was before today. Yeah. And so the USDA report today, they did cut the yield to 53. And that is about what traders were expecting. And the ending stocks were reduced. But we didn't have any big new news in the export market. And the USDA lowered export demand on the report. And then we still, of course, are delayed in our weekly export sales. We're not going to get the news that we're looking for specifically from China, probably for a few weeks. So the USDA is going to release two weekly export sales reports a week that are backlogged. And so when you think about when President Trump and President Xi got together in the end of October, early November, and then there were some whispers of export sales. Those whispers are not going to be printed until the middle of December. So here we are stuck with not a lot of fresh news that we're looking for on the Chinese front. We're still looking for that demand that was expressed between President Trump and President XI, but we just still haven't seen it on paper. And the USDA decreasing export demand on the report today, it was just deflated the market. So we saw profit taking and technical selling kick in. And just like corn and wheat, I think it's going to probably continue for a couple of weeks. 

Yeager: Depressing or reality as far as the export number that you're talking about knocking that down?

Blohm: I think a little bit of reality because China hasn't come in. But you want to know what if this, soybean market price comes down a little bit, they're going to show up, I think very, very much so in the next couple of weeks. And then they're going to be doing their buying. So they may have bought some under the radar already. We're going to find out in a couple of weeks. But if the market has a correction here I think you're going to see them step up to the plate pretty darn quick and do some of that buying, because they are still in need of grain for December and January, and that is definitely when we can get it to them when they need it.

Yeager: Let's do one more trade question if we could, please. But this one's from Dan in Illinois. It certainly appears the tariffs have breached China's trust in buying our commodities. Do you think that our exports of soybeans to China will ever amount to where they were before the tariffs were implemented? Well, I would like to think that we will get close to where we were. And you got to remember that with what just came out with President Trump and President XI, what China says are going to be buying from us for 25 million metric tons annually. That's what they had been buying from us before. The other question would be more like, would we get back up to where we were in, like during Covid and that type of a thing.  And I don't think so because Brazil has taken that market from us. I don't think we're going to get that portion of the market share back. But I do firmly believe that China will buy from us because they do need product from both hemispheres, and we can deliver to them in December and January, and that's when they need our product, because the Brazil marketplace and the Brazil harvest obviously isn't ready. So they'll come, they will come. Just give it a couple of weeks when the market goes on sale and they will show up.

Yeager: What's going on in dairy market on sale? 

Blohm: Unfortunately, yes. Low milk prices. And the culprit is higher milk production. So we did get a USDA report in milk this week, but it was a delayed report from September. But it showed that September milk production was up 4% year over year, which is an astounding number. And that's because we have over 200,000 more cows that are milking right now than a year ago, and each cow is able to produce more milk. So we have actually a glut of supply. Now, what we don't know is where the demand is because we're not getting cold storage reports. We're not getting some of our expert reports that we rely heavily on. We've only been able to see where the cheese market has been trading. So the theme of higher milk production has been stealing the show. And that's why class three milk futures have been in the low six teens. But now that the government is back up and running, as soon as we can get some of those cold storage reports and other reports, I think we'll see some good signs of demand and maybe find a low for the class three milk futures soon.

Yeager: A week ago, at this almost exact time, there were a couple of social media posts by the president about beef. We had to sit with that all weekend, and we had other stories. But then late today, JBS reports record revenue, lower profit in quarter three. Can this cattle market keep taking these punches? 

Blohm: All right, I'll just be frank. I think that the big rally is done, and any kind of recovery bounce that we get is going to be your opportunities for additional hedging. This administration has made it clear that they are going to do whatever it takes to bring the price of beef down. We are working, of course, with Mexico. We had an announcement of a new sterile fly facility that is opening up, and Mexico is going to let the USDA come in and help and participate. The border, of course, is still closed. We know that we have a lower production amount here, but the problem is that the perception is that the administration wants the price of beef to come down. So the fund traders have taken their cue from that and they are walking away. They're taking their long positions, exiting them, and we don't know if they're going short or not because we don't have that commitment of traders report. But I'll be curious what the Cattle on Feed report says next Friday we'll get some fresh eyes on things. But again, in general, if we can see a recovery rally here, we're sitting on a major, major uptrend support line right now for both the live cattle complex and the feeder complex on monthly charts. And so next week is going to be critical. And I think it really will boil down to the Cattle on Feed report on Friday. 

Yeager: And the hog market? 

Blohm: The hog market has, you know, it had been working lower, working lower and had a little bit of a recovery bounce, but we're just not seeing a lot of fresh news there. Of course, we're not. We didn't have a lot of export sales, so we just were lacking information. And I think with the cattle prices in the cattle complex working lower, hogs just had fallen in sympathy. So we're waiting for some fresh news in that market as well. 

Yeager: And you mentioned the feeder market there briefly, but, do you have a in 10 second better outlook for the beef market or the hog market in the next six months?

Blohm: I think recovery a bounce for the beef because the demand is just going to be there. But whatever recovery bounce we see, it needs to be a hedging opportunity. 

Yeager: All right Naomi, great to see you. Thank you so much for your time. That is going to do it for the TV portion of this program. And I want to let you know that you have been watching the analysis segment.

And in a moment we'll continue that discussion in a segment we call Market Plus. So Search Market Plus with Naomi Bloom, wherever that you get your podcast to hear that conversation or go onto our website of market to market.org. You can read it there if you want. Rural America certainly knows how to show off in a good photo. We get some of those posted on our Instagram page. Follow along for those images and other behind the scenes tidbits we may share at Instagram.com / market to market show. 

Next week, a long running Midwest refugee center worries about the future.

Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

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