Soybeans and cattle markets processing trade news

Donald Trump, U.S. President: "Large amounts, tremendous amounts of the soybeans and other farm products are going to be purchased immediately, starting immediately. If you notice, President XI authorized yesterday for China to start."

The details of the announcement included a promise to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans in the final months of 2025, and a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. 

If realized, the deal would return Chinese soybean purchases to near the average of 26.6 million metric tons the country imported between 2011 and 2024. China purchased 27 million metric tons in 2024. 

This year, China purchased 5 million metric tons of soybeans before halting purchases in May. 

Caleb Ragland of the American Soybean Association, had this comment:

Caleb Ragland, President, American Soybean Association: “Today’s announcement is great news for American agriculture, and soybean farmers are extremely grateful to President Trump for making soybeans a priority in negotiations with China.” 

The status of Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products remains in word only as details and documents are still unclear as is the status of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. The president has stated he will drop the duty on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% but he has yet to do so.

Late week, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins added more information to the administration’s announcement.

Sec. Brooke Rollins, USDA: I think is a is a huge, huge win for our soybean farmers in the short term, but the long term the conversations have to continue. We can't be so reliant on one market for our farmers to sell in because hopefully we're happy kumbaya-ing together for a long time with China but we may not be.”

China has purchased about 25% of the U.S. soybean crop over the last 15 years.

The cattle complex is still sorting last week's news about increasing imports from Argentina and other impacts the administration may have had in the futures and cash markets.  

Dr. Derrell Peel/Oklahoma State University: “we're in such a tenuous political and, and economic environment broadly speaking, that the market is just really sensitive and really jumpy about anything.” 

A meeting with top agricultural officials from the U.S. and Mexico ended with no changes to the border policy keeping Mexican cattle from being imported into the U.S. and keeping domestic supplies in the feedlot tight mostly because of concerns over the New World screwworm.

Even if U.S. imports of Argentine ground beef increase, the amount is just over two percent of all beef imported into the country and only part of the supply story.  

Dr. Derrell Peel/Oklahoma State University:  “the first seven months of the year, Brazil was the largest source of imports, more than ten times as much imports as Argentina, but similar product. And as with most of our beef imports, the bulk of that product is lean processing type beef that goes largely into our ground beef markets. And, because of the, and of course, that supplements our domestic supplies of, we call it nonfed beef. So cull cows and bulls that make up the lean part of our ground beef mixes in the U.S. We absolutely have to have those imports, too, in order to sustain a critical ground beef market in the U.S. Forty to 45% of our total beef consumption in this country is ground beef.”

Peel adds prices for all cuts are going to rise because of the factors pushing on the market right now - a limited supply of live animals because of herd liquidation due to drought. 

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs

Contact: miller@iowapbs.org