Market Plus with Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth

[Paul Yeager] This this is the. Friday, July 11th, 2025 version of the Market analysis segment from market to market. Welcome back to the table for the Friday, July 11th, 2025 installment of Market Plus. Joining us now, Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth. I've said it before and I'll say it again, if we really talked about what we talked about between these segments, we'd both be in trouble.

[Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Very much. Yeah, I'm glad the cameras don't roll all the time.

[Yeager] I'll just write about it in the newsletter. It's more fun that way. I do want to talk about I alluded to something on the TV show that was talked about. There was an estimate and there's estimates. It's not just one person or one group that are putting high amounts of, of, of yield out there.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Right.

[Yeager] And people don't like that. [Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah.

[Yeager] What is let's just take Robert Minnesota's question before I get myself in trouble talking specifics. What happens to the corn market if we get 185 corn yield? Or worse yet, 190? And if you want to Kristi 200.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Listen, USDA comes out with a report every month, and people don't like those either. So, the thing is, those are numbers. That is information that is used to be traded. And so, you take that information whether you agree with it or not, and you trade it. And I have never seen someone have really good luck bucking information that's out there at the time, because that is what the market wants to trade off of. Eventually it comes to light. For example, I'm kind of spinning off of this, but for example, in the summer of 2023, we had some of the worst crop condition ratings ever for corn, and we ended up with a record yield that year. And since then, we've bypassed it. Right. But that year for 2324 had a record yield off of the worst crop conditions. But at that time, you're trading off of kind of the information you have. And so, I just think that, you know, if those trade models are out there, I don't necessarily agree with them. I'm also in the neck of the woods for the second year in a row that isn't looking the best. We've been cooler. We've been really wet. Things are short. They're finally coming around. It just doesn't look all that great. So, I think that plays a role into it. I also am in the camp that I think that seed genetics have done such a great job thriving. A plant off of timely rains, heat and sunshine. And so, it'll be really interesting to see this year what kind of yield we can come with abundance of rain. I don't know, I mean, I've killed a lot of plants in my day. It's not the same as corn, but a lot of times I overwater plants. So, we're going to see how this pans out. But back to the question about big yields. We are at the exact same price. We were pretty much one year ago for the corn market. We were forecasting a just over a 2 billion bushel forecast for that next year's corn. We're at a 1.66 forecasted right now. If we do not change demand, we would need to increase yield to 1.86 to get to a 2 billion bushel carryout. And that's where you'd kind of have that price line up. And that's asking you to have a record yield by like, what, 6.7 BPA. So, you know, that's a really big stretch. Not only is that a big stretch, that's on a lot of acres. And we know that historically more acres means harder ability to get a big yield. And so, I just think the market's getting a little bit ahead of themselves. But guess what. That's what information is meant to be done. It's meant to be traded. And at this point at the levels that we're at, I'm in the camp that bury this market, put all the bearish information you have on this market, find the bottom and move on and hopefully move on in time for people to be able to get some marketing done before harvest.

[Yeager] All right. So, there's your new crop story. Let's talk about the old crop story. Because a lot of people trying to hang their hats on this old crop, and Mitch wants to know what will it take for old crop prices to start reflecting USDA's low carryout on corn? Are we not actually as short as USDA shows?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] You know, I've been asking this question to myself for about the last month, month and a half, because the corn carryout is actually pretty short when you look at it on the number wise, quarterly stocks reconfirm that, you know, at the end of June, we reconfirmed in June that farmers have less grain on hand, that the end user has more grain on hand than a year ago. So, I think what you're looking at in this situation is that producers did a really good job selling old crop this year, compared to the year before. At this point last year, I was getting a lot of questions on what to do with old crop corn. I have not had many of those questions, and so I'm hoping that it's just people maybe learned year over year that if you get the opportunity for $5 old crop corn, which you did have that opportunity that you did something, now if you're in the camp that you're cleaning out bins, you still have some left. You made some poor marketing decision because you're a human. Everyone makes mistakes. You know, if you're looking at that, I have started to see bases come around over the last week or two, and I would be looking at that basis. And if you're in the camp, that basis has improved 10 to $0.20 for corn. I'd start having that conversation for basis, knowing you have to move it in the next month, month and a half. And I'd be trying to wait to see if we stabilize for old crop futures. You're hovering right around $4. We know that $4 is historically a level that really supports this market. So, I would take that chance.

[Yeager] I wrote down basis while you were talking, and I wanted to talk about that. So, Ben Click in Ohio was telling us during the TV show and he'll be in the podcast on Tuesday discussing basis levels where he's at. And they have been historically near historically wet eastern Corn Belt has been that way for a couple, been strange the last couple of years. Again, all basis is local, right? But what is the basis telling you right now? And are there regions that are screaming something differently than somewhere else?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, actually I have not seen much for basis movement for the last like month and a half. It's been completely dead. I actually thought you would see basis start to improve when you got into planting. Didn't see that it pointed towards what stocks report told us that farmers just did a good job selling and getting it out, and that there's enough on hand for end users that they're working through right now. Now you're starting to see it. So, I do think it's telling you right now that we're not we don't have as much as we did last year. We you know, you're going to have to start trying to ask those farmers, kind of pry it out of their hands. I don't think there's as much on deep as there was a year ago. So, I think that's what you're starting to hear and see from some places. My biggest concern when you talk about basis is a couple weeks ago, maybe this is I mean, time flies when you're having fun, but maybe it was a month ago. You saw that basis flip for a lot of places all the way out to November for soybeans. And that was really concerning to me, because then you get so backwards, and that's not a fun way to deal with it. So, I would say if you're looking at corn, your basis has improved lately and you got to get some out the door yet start having that conversation.

[Yeager] Well, that's one part of this discussion, Joe in Minnesota is another. Let's put the corn discussion. One final bit here. Exit strategy for remaining unpriced corn in the bin with a large potential crop coming.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yes. Same kind of situation. I mean, if when you talk about exit strategy, it makes me think that you might have a position on if that's the case, I am taking off those positions now for 13 has been that target. I've talked about it in the in the report a couple different times, but that's where I'm starting to lift my positions. If you really wanted to, to roll it down, you could. But you know, options. You got to walk away from them at some point. Right. And so that's where I would be. If you're looking at just exiting as far as exiting it out the door, getting rid of it, same situation. Really focus on that basis.

[Yeager] You got to do a little homework here or you've done homework to answer this one. Bradley in Nebraska wants to know. I'm seeing many farmers trying to do a corn balance sheet. They're using planted acres times final yield for production. If memory serves, Bradley says harvested acres in the balance sheet is less than planted acres. Could you please explain why to my fellow producers?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah. So, it's harvested acres times. The yield for the production is what you use on those balance sheets. So, you'll be able to see it like on your WASDE crop reports and use that. So sometimes you know, years you have a little bit of a bigger gap between planted acres and harvested acres. That's just meaning that possibly more drowned out spots that you're thinking about. Some poor condition corn, those type of situations. I think if you were to look at one kind of tidbit on corn, I do think that maybe planted the difference between planted acres and harvested is a little wide, like you could see harvested acres start to come up, but I don't anticipate that being a ton.

[Yeager] All right. You want to do some positivity to close? Okay. Let's do that. Let's Ronald in Iowa is going to set you up here. Christie. Hard to be a glass half full person market wise. Why should you be half full right now?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I think you should always be half full. I don't know if anyone's caught on this, but that is the way I look at everything. Whether it's life, whether it's the markets. There is always an opportunity to be had out there. And I think that is the key to marketing, is to take that emotion and shove it to the side and just say, hey, maybe not everything is great for me right now, but what is something that's really working out for me right now when we get to these lower prices? Usually it gives you opportunities to kind of pair yourself up better basis right? At these lower prices. If you have harvest delivery bushels that need to go to town, you're starting to see those harvest delivery bases come together because no one's really sold. Right. Unless you sold this January, February time frame, you probably haven't sold a ton of new crops since then. And so that is an opportunity to be had at these lower prices. So, there's always something to be able to look towards in these kind of situations. Also, if you're an option trader, because everything has been so doom and gloom, there hasn't been a lot of activity options in my opinion, are really cheap. So, if you're looking at saying, hey, I might try options for the first time, this might be a good time to do it.

[Yeager] Do you have optimism about wheat, corn, beans?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] I do.

[Yeager] The rest of 25.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] But you are really having to ask for a lot like we. Whether you agree with the concept of tariffs or not, tariffs, when they get talked about are a blanket of negativity on grain prices. And we just need them to get dealt with and stop being talked about. We need that roller coaster of a threat, a pause, a threat to just completely go away from the market. I think if you could just get that to happen, this market could really come together. I also think, you know, you always tell your kids or you're hearing those stories about the boy that cried wolf. You know, we've had multiple times that we've talked about trade deals and then we don't really have any details behind it. I think this market is becoming desensitized that they want the details. They want to see something that includes agriculture. They want more details on it. And I think when you get that this market is really going to wake up, but it's so tired of that roller coaster that it has to deal with right now that it just cannot get going.

[Yeager] It's a jaded market maybe.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] I think. Yeah, very angry, very, very unhappy with the situation.

[Yeager] But you're happy with your situation here?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yes. Always.

[Yeager] All right. Kristi, good to see you. Thank you so much for making the trip. Thank you. All right. Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth everybody. Thank you. And a reminder, we do have a newsletter I alluded to at the beginning of Market Plus. It's called the Market Insider. It's free. It comes out every Monday. Sign up at Markettomarket.org. Check out this week's poll question. Now I've really put myself in the pickle about what I'm going to ask. Next week. We are going to take a look at permanently protecting land for agriculture's use and Ted cipher is going to be here with us. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.