Market Plus with Mark Gold

Paul Yeager: Welcome back to the table for the Friday, August 15th, 2025 Market Plus. Mark Gold still here. Mark, a few things we talk about. Yield. We'll get to yield in a minute. I want to talk about stocks and yields. We'll get to that. I kind of let you off the hook on the show and what that means. I want to talk about beans though because there's people who have sat in that chair over the last few months have said beans don't look good. Are beans going to end up being the winner in 2025?

Mark Gold: I think they probably will. I don't know that it's going to be because we have a big loss in the beans, but with the acres cut that changes the dynamics of this market a little bit. And now you got a carry out of 290 projected. If things aren't rosy and we lose just a bushel an acre like we talked about in the show, now you got a bean market that'll move. You know, higher. So certainly if you're going to be either selling beans off the combine to keep room for corn, look at buying a call option back, because in the next 3 or 4 months, particularly after harvest, we could have something. Now are the Chinese going to come in after harvest and buy soybeans? It looks at this point, we're kind of getting beyond the point of no return.

Yeager: But do you think the movement this week was not, there was no trade news? 

Gold: No.

Yeager: This is all tied to less crop in the field. 

Gold: Right. 

Yeager: Okay. And any trade news or framework could dramatically change that picture. Right?

Gold: Yeah. We did see on Friday, we did see a good open number 196 million bushels, which was 4 or 5 million more than what they were looking for. So that was good. If we could just pick up the export pace. But we're starting to see countries we haven't really done much business with, you know, getting more excited about buying our products out here. But, you know, they're taking hundreds of thousands of metric tons. We need somebody taking millions of metric tons to make a big difference in these markets.

Yeager: Well, maybe we'll talk to our friends in Canada. How about we talk to our first friend in Canada, Phil, Phil in Dresden; did the USDA report on August 12th overdo its corn yield estimate? Is it reasonable to assume that corn's high water yield mark for the year? And did the report signal a more bullish outlook for soybean prices? We kind of covered the soybean price part. Let's stick with the overestimate. Is it an overestimate by USDA?

Gold: Is it reasonable to think that 188.8 is too high? I believe that's reasonable. Again, the satellites do a good job of picking up color and density and those kind of things, but they're not pulling back the husk and looking at the years of corn. And when you pull back the husks, there have been some surprises out there, even this early, as we're getting toward harvest out here. So, you know, I look at some of the problems we've had with the black tar, with the tassel wrap and some of the other things out here. And again, when you have high humidity, 24 hours a day, every day for literally weeks on end, and you've got overnight temperatures not getting cool, tells me that there may be something amiss here that we may not know until we actually get into the harvest, and maybe the crop tour will give us a better indication of that.

Yeager: Well, a month ago there was a number from Stone X that kind of jolted the market a little bit, at least some people to wow, maybe there's some confirmation that this is going to be a good crop has come. Crop tours. Can crop tours counter government and private here with its own number after next week?

Gold: They can. Will they? I don't know, but I think it's reasonable to expect that the government number is just wrong and that when they actually get into the fields, like these guys are going to do next week, I think they're going to find some things that aren't quite as great as they think they're going to see. And when they make the adjustments for that, are they going to knock a 188.8 down to 183? No, they're not going to do that. Can they knock it down to 185, 186. They can. And that's a significant cut that takes off of that 2 billion bushel carryout. So hopefully the lows are in. Well I think we'll know more next week.

Yeager: But where does it all go? That's the question that Smithers in Minnesota wants to know. Where is all this grain going to get stored? A lot of BTO's can't even harvest a third of their crop without being full. And especially if you didn't empty the bin from the previous year.

Gold:You know, that's going to be the question. Have they done a good job of getting rid of the 2024 crop? I still think there's a lot of corn out there in the bin. Everybody's kept waiting for $5 corn. Then they were going to sell it the best. We got to February and March was up to I think 475. So as these prices have eroded, we haven't seen much selling. So that tells me that there's got to be some decisions made. And again, my point I made in the show, it looks like we may be in a position now to chase the funds in, particularly if that yield isn't great from the crop tour. We could see the funds cover. Now they've only got about 130,000 left, down from about 180. But it's been coming down and that's what we saw here this week. If we can get it anywhere close. And you know guys don't wait till the report comes out and says, yeah, they're you know, they finally got out of everything. You know, we get to 30, 40,000 shorts. That's a good enough rally that you got to be making some kind of marketing move out here. So I hope the lows are in at least before harvest if we get this rally. But then at harvest, how much did they sell on 24? What are they going to do with 25? Are they going to bag it? Who knows what they're going to do out here? We need some help. We need to get rid of it. Now, is the issue. And I think that could be a problem that will push prices back lower one more time. Maybe not to new lows, but I think they'll come back down again.

Yeager: Well, and maybe we can walk it off or feed it. That has been a story. And John in Iowa wants to know is the increased volatility in the cattle market lately a signal that it is ready for a downturn because their feed costs haven't been as high? Is that contributing to part of this too?

Gold: Well, I think, you know, the first part of that question is, is the volatility indicating that the highs are in and I've said many times on this show that normally markets will end in big volatility, both on the bull side and the bear side. When you see this kind of volatility, it's usually a sign this market has absolutely ignored a lot of the good technical signals. Key reversals. We've had five reversal key reversals and feeder cattle and ignored every one of them. But again I think once we get past Labor Day, it's going to be probably the time.

Yeager: Will you say that again what you said in the show about box beef and some of that, that was astounding to me about what the swing that we had. What does that mean.?

Gold: For some reason? Two weeks ago, they thought the market was backing off and prices backed off, maybe because the consumer wasn't buying it. But then as the guys had to prepare for the Labor Day holiday, it came right back, making new highs. You know, it's unprecedented $400 for box beef up $340 for feeder cattle. I think the last time I was on the show, we were $300 feeder cattle. I go, wow.

Yeager: And thought that was good.

Gold: I thought that was pretty good. Now we go up another $40. Since then, I don't know when it stops, but markets go in cycles. Highs are highs are highs and lows are lows. And we're getting close.

Yeager: Well and I'm sitting here, I'm having Mark Gold flashbacks right now because Mark Gold comes on to the show and says if it's on the front of the New York Times or on the nightly news.

Gold: Yes.

Yeager: We've seen it there. Right?

Gold: We have.

Yeager: Seen it. And that's usually an indicator. So that also is complicating this discussion.

Gold: We can't forget that there are a lot of cattle out there. I mean, yeah, they're low numbers historically, but they're still cattle out there. And the fact of the matter is every day now we're seeing these stories on NBC, ABC and Fox and the rest of them about food costs. And we know the one thing that's saving, maybe the saving grace is gas prices have broken. So the consumer out of their pocket isn't getting hit on both ends. They're saving some money on gas, spending more money on food. But at some point, I believe the American housewife is going to throw up her arms and say, you know, eight, $10 hamburger is just too much for me and God knows what for a strip steak or a porterhouse. But. I just don't see it after Labor Day. Once we get through the grilling season, you know, that should be it.

Yeager: Well, what? Tell me about December meal, because that has implications that our food counter, too.

Gold: Yeah, we've got the funds short about 110,000. They've come down from about 140,000. We bumped up and took out $300 in the DEC contract by a dime, got up to 300.1. If we can close this meal over $300, I think that's a positive sign that we can chase more funds in and out of their short positions and move this thing higher again. We've been crushing beans not for the meal, but for the oil. And I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. So if we do get a rally in the meal, beans, take another 30, 40, 50 cent pop out here. It's probably a pretty good selling opportunity.

Yeager: And go back to trade for a minute if we could. Dan in Nebraska, what kind of trade deals are you looking for?

Gold: Realistically, if any trade deals that we make, whether it's South Korea, Philippines, Canada, Mexico, anybody you want to talk about the EU, none of it. In the big scheme of things matters. If we don't get China in India, we've got to get them. And that's going to be a function of what Putin does. And what if we want to keep hurting Putin with tariffs on oil? Hopefully that gets resolved. We'll see what happens with today's summit meeting. Are they going to bring Zelenskyy in tomorrow or the next day? The president said quickly. So I'm hopeful that there's something there that will say to the Chinese in particular, yeah, come on back, let's be friends again.

Yeager: Right. But agriculture and trade isn't necessarily always part of that conversation. And that's usually doesn't make it in the mainstream press. We do we have to look for? We've just, we always hear, talk but don't know details. And so that's hard for us to track. I don't know, what are we supposed to look at?

Gold: Well, you just look at the export sales. I think every week. That's the surest way of knowing something's going on and not just a one week blip, but 3 or 4 weeks is telling you that there's a deal there, and it's working. We've had problems with the Chinese in the past, not living up to their obligations in these deals. So again, you've got to be careful. But if we can get those two deals India and China done in the next 30 days, that would certainly help these markets.

Yeager: Well, that is optimism, Randy in Iowa submitted a pair of questions. Thank you. Randy. We're going to talk about drought and farmers here. Randy said about all this talk this winter and spring of a drought likely led farmers to be slow sellers of old and new crop, likely missing the only rally in the year. This feels like market manipulation. What do you do now?

Gold: Well, let me take odds with the fact that it's market manipulation. If you got anywhere near a 185 to a 190 corn crop out there, that's not market manipulation, that's American farmers planting more and more corn and seeing, finally seeing great rains and letting these genetics give you a boost. That's not market manipulation. And I don't see that these markets are being manipulated by anything other than supply and demand, which is what it's supposed to do. So, you know, what do you do now? It's tough. You know, when I was here last time, corn was about three 50, 340. I said, you know, buy some kind of cheap, put like a 420 or something for a dime. Well, it turned out those puts were worth some good money out here. And you got to look for the opportunity to roll those puts down when you can.

Yeager: But because you often say Mark, there's that one time of year, are we going to get a second time this year?

Gold: We've had the one time we had it, we had a marketing opportunity in January, February and March. Farmers didn't take advantage of it. We've had the big break. I think maybe we get a chance to go back up to that level, but I think that'll be about it. If we're lucky, we'll get to those levels. And I think you've got to take advantage when we get there. I don't see new highs in this corn market unless the president comes out and says e-15 year round, and we really need to ramp up here. That would be helpful. But just on its own supply and demand without a deal with somebody out here, you know, they've talked a lot about these deals being agreed upon. But I don't think too much has actually been signed out here yet. So we've got to see that. And, you know, hopefully we will. But I do know lows are lows and highs are highs. We've made these lows. Maybe we can bounce now. But look for the next good marketing opportunity.

Yeager: And we will look for the next opportunity to say thank you Mark. 

Gold: My pleasure. Great. Great to be here.

Yeager: Thank you Mark Gold everyone. Hey I want a couple of reminders here before we get too far. I want to get you signed up for the Market to Market Insider newsletter. It is free. Go to Markettomarket.org. That's where you learned about this second thing. And that is Sunday, August 24th, 2025. We will have our final 50th season tour celebration. We're going to have a party here at the Network in Johnston, Iowa that originates this program. Get all of the details. Go on our website of markettomarket.org. Scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page. Look for the link and then you can RSVP. It is free, but we do have limited seating, so sign up there and we will see you there. Mark Gold will be there and so will many of our other market analysts looking forward to that. And we're also looking forward to next week when we look at a school that won't let agriculture be secondary, even at the primary level, and John Roach will be back with us to break down the commodity markets. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week.

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