Market Plus with Dan Hueber

Paul Yeager: Welcome to the table for the Friday, October 17th, 2025 installment of Market Plus. Joining us now, Dan Hueber. I know it's the 17th of October, but I had to look at it just to make sure we're through the month mostly halfway through. Correct?

Dan Hueber: Correct. More than half.

Yeager: Well, you probably had to think about it because it's 80 degrees outdoors. Oh it is. The2 weather is nowhere crazy, right? The colors, the fall colors. Everything's thrown off the pumpkin. Festivals. All of that.

Hueber: Yes, exactly.

Yeager: College football. But there's no better time to have a government shutdown when there's no. No weather to talk about because we don't need information. I mean, tell me about this shutdown impacting the farmer right now because we don't have USDA. We should have had some reports here that would give us indication. Let's start. You like history, Dan. I do. Why do we have the USDA?

Hueber: The USDA was started for a very specific purpose. And of course actually was founded or or put together on Abraham Lincoln's administration and specifically because at the time, back in the 1850s and prior to the the only people that had information were commercial interests, the grain companies, the livestock buyers, whomever, really, farmers were kind of flying blind. And of course, we didn't have telecommunications as we do today. So the USDA was founded specifically to gather information so farmers could be on an equal, I guess maybe that's maybe a little generous, but a a little closer to the playing field, to the rest of the industry that they were dealing with. So it I mean, realistically at this point with, without that information, yes, we continue to function. Harvest goes on. Cash markets are there. But that said it really injects a level of uncertainty into the market, into the market participants. And when there's uncertainty, they are risk off. You know why why go to risk if you have too many questions that are unanswered. So if there are people who are interested in possibly looking at the long side of the grain markets, you know that uncertainty is going to keep them on the sidelines at this point in time.

Yeager: And without news, there's nothing to bring them back in.

Hueber: Exactly, exactly. So with that, as long as that uncertainty pervades, then why do we need to stick and put our money at risk?

Yeager: So. So what do I do, though, right now? I mean, you mentioned cash flow is a need for some people to get back in, certainly. But if I feel that there must be something afoot, I need to take part. What am I looking at?

Hueber: Right. Well, you know, and again, depends on the level of, for lack of a better word, market IQ of the individual and not meaning that people have higher IQs, but maybe they're more adept at using futures markets. But first and foremost you would look at the carries, their carry in the market. If I need to make sales, how far out can I go that's going to that's going to recover my cost to carry the grain. Of course, once you sell it, you are technically short at that point, or at least no longer long in the market. Is there a way to that? I need to compensate to do that? Yeah. There's any image you can be straight long futures. You can buy calls. I mean, there's all sorts of alternatives, but those are things that you really need to sit down with your market advisor or your broker, understand what you're comfortable with, and, and implement them that way. So it's like I say, there's a lot of tools available. It's just a question of which ones do you feel comfortable with.

Yeager: And how many phone calls you want to make or whose websites you want to go look at to see where the basis is improving or declining.

Hueber: True, true. And here again too, most of that information should be available on most quote systems. You can see where basis levels are, but you know, that said you can only transport grain so far as an individual. You know, it's not like you've probably got 100 car rail loader in your backyard to move it halfway across the country. Yeah, yeah.

Yeager: All right. Well, let's get to a couple questions that came in. Let's talk Dan in Nebraska. If we could. And this one similar to what we've talked about before. Will it take years for beef prices to come down?

Hueber: Oh you know it's not you know, granted once it does peak, there'll probably be a somewhat of a panic liquidation sell off. But yes, I mean, you're not going to change that situation. The beef market anytime in the next you know, realistically five years, ten years. So yes, it was going to be more of a gradual deterioration, probably led more by shifts in diet. You know, that people will adjust to eating other meats. And once you do that, you know, I mean, granted, beef is unique in its flavor and its properties and the way you cook with it. But on the same token, when push comes to shove, dollars peak, particularly if the consumer is pressured other places.

Yeager: It's interesting you say that because just this week, the food, there were two big food companies that were talking about our diet changes for the reason for their shedding of thousands and thousands of jobs. Nestle, I think, was one of them. But they said, we're just eating different things now. Right?

Yeager: Right. Is that really is that the way the consumer is, is telling us what we should be growing?

Hueber: Well, ultimately, ultimately, yes. I mean, that has to be, you know, I guess in any product, the consumer is the one that's going to tell you. I mean, we can promote it all we want and tell you the virtues of doing this. I mean, it's I mean, granted, we could go to the fashion industry and see it happen on a seasonal basis, but ultimately, if the consumer doesn't like something, they're, you know, you need to adapt and adjust to meet that demand. And.

Yeager: I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Well, let's go to the consumer then the beef market. for sure for a moment. Because if the president is saying the consumer is losing due to higher prices, who would that impact? Because who's winning on higher live cattle prices right now and who's winning on live cattle and feeders?

Hueber: Well, you know, and of course, I mean, the biggest winner would be those who are producing that animal. And of course, the packers, you know, certainly are not going to be left out on the short end of the stick there either. You know, when it comes to who is the administration going to listen to, who's screaming? I don't mean necessarily screaming the loudest, but has the most number of voices that would make a difference to him. It's going to be the consumer. And if the consumer is pushing back against it, you know, the moves made by the administration would not necessarily be pro-farmer.

Yeager: And that, yeah, we could have ourselves a whole lot of things, problems, issues we didn't know we had.

Hueber: Well, you and again, we've already of course, granted, nothing has been announced so far, but we've already heard there's going to be 20 billion, 15 to $20 billion aid package coming for the farm community. And I think that's their fallback, you know. Yeah, we can do things that are not in the best interests of the farm community. But, you know, there again, we can turn around and appease them with some bailouts. You know, I've been with farmers all of my life, and I don't think any of them not that, you know, if it is offered and you need it, you accept it. But at the same token, none of them really want to do business that way.

Yeager: So trade not aid, is the phrase we hear. There we go. Another question is Michelle in Wisconsin again, a high level question. Dan, does lack of foreign food aid programs have any impact on the current markets?

Hueber: Oh, certainly. Certainly. Yeah. We're I mean, again, that was where a lot of our excess product would be bundled up and sent to needs. Now granted it just compounds the issue. It isn't the sole issue by any stretch of the imagination. But every time you eliminate a mouth that could be fed regardless if we're selling it to them or giving it to them, you know, that's just one one bushel, one ounce that's not being used.

Yeager: So if it's not for food, there's other uses of grain. Where's the usage story for soybeans right now? If we can't put things on a slow boat to a country, can we crush and feed our way with that?

Hueber: You know, when you look at the November I'm sorry, the October crush numbers, I'll back it up again. We're in October. September crush numbers were record. I mean, we're we we are really domestically using beans a lot. These bean oil stocks actually decreased just a touch. You know, in spite of the record crush. So yeah I mean we're doing a good job of using it domestically. That I think helps us stabilize the market. But it doesn't help us to move significantly higher. And there's nothing you can do quick. I mean, even look at the ethanol industry and the ethanol industry is really what brought us into the status we are today. It took a decade to develop, and it was well publicized. It was well supported by the government as we developed it. You know, tell me today what we're you know, yes, renewable diesel. That was going to be the next big thing. Well then cooking oil changed that. All right. Yeah. We may may reduce our imports of Chinese cooking oil. But that really have already happened over the last 8 or 9 months.

Yeager: So it's and is that going to be enough to even have an impact on that discussion.

Hueber: Well of course, you know, that would be to say that the used cooking oil market in this country would go away. I mean, we still produce a lot of used cooking oil. So no, I don't think that is at least for the foreseeable future, there's going to be our answer. So yeah, and there's where I struggle with the ag picture, period. You know, for the next five to even ten years, what is going to be the next driving force that changes the picture to where we have elevated it to a new level of demand. And I think you'd be hard pressed to find what that's going to be.

Yeager: Well, let's maybe I don't know if Joel and Oklahoma's question is going to feed into you at all. Dan, but let's close on this one. Joel wants to know, are there any shovel ready projects that could help agriculture right now, maybe cut into that 5 to 10 year story.

Hueber: Not shovel ready? Not that I'm aware of, you know. But again, there were a few plants that were specifically going to be dedicated towards that, that renewable diesel up in the Dakotas. And I think a couple of them were mothballed for the time being. So it's no, I again, it's it's difficult to think you want again. I guess, I maybe I'm going to run out of time but, no, okay.

Yeager: No but I'm writing some. There were two things just this week that were of interest. There was a sausage plant in Iowa and Walmart's in the beef business now. I mean, those are not necessarily shovel ready that this question is referring to, but those are things that are happening right now.

Hueber: Right? It was stable. And, you know, the you know, we all know the old adage, the best cure for low prices is low prices. Well, we've got low prices, which ultimately stimulates those ideas. We don't rely necessarily on the same old program we have in the past. But you know and again, those are every little bit is going to help. But I mean there's nothing that you would consider major nationwide that can really make this happen.

Yeager: So I, I think I cut you off on a thought on something.

Hueber: Well, I was going to say, you know, and, you know, not being too much of a Danny Downer this week, but it's kind of coming across that way. I think that's really one of the big negatives of what we're seeing with the tariff situation. You know, if we go back 50 years to 1973 specifically, we embargoed soybeans from this country, and it wasn't for a bad reason. I mean, we'd actually sold more beans than we had on hand. So, I mean, we were technically going to have to go buy them somewhere else, but what the net result of that was, our primary buyer at the time was Japan. They went to South America and invested in production. They invested in facilities. The same thing. We're seeing other nations that were in trade wars right now doing so. I think the long term ramifications of this probably are as hurtful as the short term ones, if not even more so.

Yeager: So it cuts into that 5 to 10 year plan that you're. Yeah. Okay. Great. Well let's see, it was sunny today. Is that a positive?

Hueber: Beautiful, beautiful weather. That's right. Sounds like for next few days. Could be that way to.

Yeager: Have fun a pumpkin fest next week.

Hueber: Well we'll always enjoy pumpkin fest.

Yeager: Thanks, Dan Hueber. Good to see you. Thank you. Dan Hueber everyone. Next week we are going to look back at our first 50 seasons one final time and we'll talk to Matt Bennett. We'll get him out of the combine cabin, sit him right there and have a conversation with him. Thank you so very much for joining us. And don't forget, sign up for that Market Insider newsletter to find out what Dan and I really talked about this week. We'll see you next time.

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