Market Plus with Sue Martin

Paul Yeager: Welcome back to the table for the Friday, October 31st, 2025 Market Plus. Sue Martin is still with us here. Sue. Again, appreciate always your flexibility and going. If I would have had you on last week talking livestock. Has your opinion changed in a week on what happened?

Sue Martin: Very bearish.

Yeager: You were bearish last week.

Martin: Yes, I've been bearish when we moved into October and we, I kept hoping we were going to take out that August high. I kept rooting for the October to keep going, and I think we got up to what, $4.42, 45 or 7 or something like that. And I kept thinking, we're so close, you know, to that. $2.46, 47 August high. And I really kind of wanted to see it didn't make any difference that we didn't, because all the other contracts had made higher highs. But when that news came out, first off, I had already said to our subscribers and different clients that no matter what happened, if we made higher highs, I felt we were going to go down into December, that I felt like the border, at least in the last half of November, could open. And then, of course, President Trump comes out with talk about beef prices, you know, going down and are going to get cheaper, just like eggs and what have you. And while he took credit for the move, he basically could only get credit for the closing of the border and the tariff on Brazil. And what happened is, is that I expect that he's going to do something because he got along real well with President Lula da Silva. So. Staining is the reason for that stiff tariff on Brazil was because he felt Bolsonaro, who was a friend of his, had been unjustly charged. Correct. Okay. So something's going to give there. Are they going to get the full 40% off? Probably not. But I suspect that he is going to open or make that path open for that beef coming in from Brazil. Now, the Argentine beef coming in, that was psychological. It was a change, psychological.

Yeager: And it's a small amount relative to everything that we import. And as Dr. Peel we heard in our piece, and we'll hear from him Tuesday in our MtoM podcast, he talks about we actually need to import some. beef to blend with the stuff we have here because of the quality differences of the products. We have to have it.

Martin: This is actually what rallied. Besides having a drought and cutting back on slaughter cows and what have you. This is actually what started the whole move through 23 in well and through 24 was the fact we didn't have enough cow beef for slaughter for the groin. So they were having to bid on steers and heifers to be able to get carcasses that they could pull from to add to it. Now you've got Argentine beef coming in. That's grass fed beef and a lot of it basically, I would say all of it is probably going to go into the grind. So that's a good thing. But when you look at Brazilian beef, that might be different. That would compete a little bit more. I think in the cuts and what have you.

Yeager: And then you want to have another 20 minute discussion about em. Cool. And we could discuss country of origin labeling because that's what's probably going to come back here really soon.

Martin: It probably will.

Yeager: All right. Well, speaking of coming back, I need to get back to what I said we were going to start with. And that's soybeans. Sorry. Ronald R wants to know. Sue, are we dealing with. We're dealing with a lot of supply in soybeans right now. Help me out with some price projections.

Martin: Well, here's the thing you have to keep in mind that we have for the new crop, we have less acres. And we had very good demand on beans. Export demand. Now that we have this agreement and 60 days, you know, 12 million metric tons, it's not known is that has to be shipped by the end of the year. Or can it be tagged that it is going. And then we worry about it. But to be honest with you, that adds to that carryout to kind of keep, you know, the USDA, I think, had exports pegged at 1.685 billion bushels. And so we're not too far off. We're a little under. But yet all of our demand has been coming from other countries. And then of course here of late. Funny how the media knew we were going to have 180,000 metric tons of not. Yeah, 180,000 metric tons of beans sold to China when it wasn't coming any other way. The way we can keep track of this, the best way we're going to have without the government being open is the ability to look on Monday, reports for export inspections, and that'll give us a clue as to where it's going, how much is going, that type of thing. And that's our only avenue right now, price wise. And I think I even sent you the chart.

Yeager: You did?

Martin: Yes. And when I look at the long term for beans now, I could see where the first quarter of next year Brazil's got all their beans. They're harvesting. It weighs on prices and the market slips back. I could see that happen and pull back. But when I look at my quarterly data, we have a pattern that we've had three other times. And each time, I mean, we could have another quarter or two where the market tries to fall back, but every time we've had this pattern, it exploded to the upside.

Yeager: And what time period are we talking here?

Martin:  I'm going to say it could be next year. I'm thinking it'll be part of next year. And then ‘27 and then of course ‘28 years of an eight are usually big years. Anyway.

Yeager: Are we getting back to teens?

Martin: Yes, Elliot, unless my software rewrites itself and it's been known to do that, a large Elliot wave five on the quarterly data is up around $18. And does the market stop at triple tops? Not usually. Not for long. But that's a long term.

Yeager: That's a long term look. And that's a lot. There's a lot of ifs.

Martin: If and that could happen. That's where candy and nuts. We'd all have a Merry Christmas.

Yeager: Right. But it's still Halloween. We can't be. Don't jump holidays yet okay. Let's look at hope. If we could Gary in Wisconsin because I think this is going to let you finish your answer with the trade deal with China. Done. Where do farmers turn for hope? Sure. Looks like the long road of mediocre prices ahead. You're trying to say mediocre might be near term. Not so mediocre long term, right?

Martin: I agree, and I think that. I think we need to go past that four letter word of hope and put optimism in there because one, yes, beans have to compete and they are competing right now with corn to garner more acres. And with the news of Chinese buying coming back, even though it's about 14% less than the five year average, if you took out the tariff times, it's still a very good number. And so then you've got that. Then you've also got other buyers from the world that have come to buying. And President Trump's been making deals all over the place. He made some huge deals with South Korea. And so I think that when we look down the road, we're moving in towards a demand market. Weather-wise we don't know yet what we're even looking at, but we're looking at demand driven type markets. I think going forward and demand driven markets are harder to quantify. So they're a little more testy. But when I look at the technical charts, they look good to me long term. And I think therefore, if you're selling cash, you know, the soybean farmers thought to be 35, 40% sold, which is a little better than I would have expected. But I would have to say find some way of having ownership back. But we're catching a good rally here. There's nothing saying that at some point you could look in the first quarter of next year, maybe the second, and buy puts on the board to floor your beans. If you're not, you have to look at what your basis is doing and where you're at at the cash level, because there might be such a thing that you can do a hedge to arrive contract at the elevator or commercial, wherever you're going, and then tie up your bases later. So there's different questions and dominoes that could fall. But all I'm saying is, I think we've got better days ahead.

Yeager: Well, let's look at planning for at ‘26 if we could acres wise, Mark in Nebraska wanted to know from you. And I think everybody kind of does here as we put harvest in the rear view, Mark in Nebraska will the new Chinese demand create a shift back to more bean acres in ‘26?

Martin: I think it will. The only thing is we have to also keep in mind the huge increase that we're seeing out of Brazil. I mean, they're going to have a much greater crop this year. What, 3.6% more, something like that. So but I think when we look at soybeans, we're looking at a crop that I think has is growing in need usage. I thought it was interesting. And this is just off the path a little bit. But I was state's been doing research on ways to use soybeans and by changing their molecular structure and stuff, you can even use them in asphalt. I mean, I think the bean market, the beans are a crop that I think is going to have a future anyway, even if Brazil outproduce us and becomes the number one exporter, fine. But, you know, we have a I think we're going to need all the beans. We're going to produce.

Yeager: Sounds like optimism's return to Sue's side of the table.

Martin: And I didn't even say $30.

Yeager: I know. Oh, but now that you've put it in text and people are going to wonder, okay, let's do one last thing here. I'm going to do Boyce in North Dakota, because I really kind of felt I skimped a tiny bit on corn. Boyce was wanting to know, did the December corn put in a head and shoulders bottom?

Martin: On the daily charts? Yes. It looks like there is a head and shoulders bottom there, which would be nice. And again, I would because of the years of a six, you know, seemed to favor July, August. I would probably say that I would expect that the corn should. And, you know, this year's contract got over $5. It was up around, what, 521 on the July contract back in February, I think, to not expect 485 to $5. 511 I think would be kind of foolish not to expect that. So I think we've got better prices yet to come on corn.

Yeager: And are you going to see more of people holding on to physical inventory, or are they going to be more willing to release some and just hold on to paper?

Martin: I don't think the farmer this next year is going to be willing to hang on to harvest like they did this past year. You know, this year of ‘25, they're marketing kind of bit them. And it bit them in 24 because they hung on and then they marketed it early in the year of this 25 year. But there was way too much old crop corn held into harvest. And I don't see them doing that in 26. And we'll have less acres. And I think that one, we're going to have more animals to feed, because that border is going to open, you know, with Dectomax CA1, my understanding is you have to inject it. And for like 21 days before they feel it eradicates the new World. Screwworm parasite. But it's going to happen. And if they aren't already using it, I'd be amazed. And I would suspect that the Mexican Ag minister is going to probably be here next week. I don't know for sure, but.

Yeager: The video conference this week?

Martin: Yes. And see, President Trump will be back from his trip. So I think he's going to have a hand in that as well. And so I look for that. The question mark is, is it the latter part of November? Is it December 1st? Is it January 1st? I'll bet you we've got cattle coming.

Yeager: We'll find out soon. When you return. Thank you Sue okay. Great to see you. Sue Martin everybody. And I want to let you know she talked about the 11 year or the 11 analysts. We had that podcast released of our August celebration celebrating our 50th season. It's on our YouTube page now, but next week we are going to talk about the journey for this year's World Food Prize laureate. And Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth is going to be here to break down the markets. Thanks for joining us and have a great week. 

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