Market Plus with Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth

[Yeager] Welcome to the table for the Friday, November 7th, 2025 Market Plus. Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth is here. We have a lot of things going on right now. Certainty is not one of them. Correct. Last the last two weeks have been very interesting in commodities.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, it's been a wild ride.

[Yeager] We've had the beef story right then we had the trade story. Now we're picking up the collateral things from those two now. And a government shutdown still going. Who knows. By the time you see this that might be over. It might not. Yeah. How do you make sense of any of this right now, Kristy?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] You know, for the longest time I was like, my job is like watching paint dry lately. And you know what? If you complain enough, they will change it. And so, it has been just a roller coaster of emotions, I think, from all aspects of, you know, are you going to get a trade deal? Are you not going to get a trade deal? What is actually coming out of this trade deal? And I think that's that question you're asking is, you know, how confident do we feel in this? We should feel pretty good because the initial purchase from China to get to that 12 million metric ton is supposed to be quick. And so, we're going to know whether or not they're going to hold to those standards sooner rather than later.

[Yeager] Because today is the 7th of November. It takes a long time to get some things organized.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yes.

[Yeager] That's what you're meaning, right?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah. And they want those purchases made quickly. And they are going to want those purchases made prior to Brazil's soybean crop coming. And then also leading up to this, there was a lot of rumors floating that China was short by 9 to 10 million metric ton for the December January time slot. So, if they are going to hold up this agreement, we should know sooner rather than later. But the big question is you can only hold them to so much, right? Like when are you going to start purchasing next year's soybeans? Because, you know, you made that agreement for those and I just don't know how much you really want to trust it. I also think I said this earlier that you can spin this story however you want to do it. Initially, when I saw the information, I was so frustrated because I don't feel like it is a good deal, right? The buying came in. Everyone was really excited about it. It's a very small amount of soybeans and it's just average moving forward and like even maybe a little bit below average purchases. But you're happy that it's something because they could have been completely stepping away from the market. So, try not to be so negative because my initial concept was that this was not a good thing. It was not a good deal. My big thing that brings the uncertainty into this is that on the back end of everything they were talking about with China, they said other Asian countries are willing to buy 19 million metric tons of soybeans as well, and that's all. And I'm like, is that 19 a year? No. Is that 19 spread out over three years? Is that 19 starting with this year? What is that 19 million metric ton and that uncertainty if they were actually going to be aggressive in purchasing soybeans, that is where you could find a lot of positivity for soybeans, in my opinion. But we know no details about it.

[Yeager] So, badly. We just kind of asked your question. Answer your question a little bit from last week. What guarantees are in the agreement? And you're saying none.

[LAUGHTER]

[Yeager] Okay, Erin and Iowa has a pair of questions. Let's start with this. First one about emotions. Have emotions. Christie momentum and technicals. One out a dead blow match to the cattle market long term with the damage done already. Or can fundamentals rise up to matter and ring that bell one more time?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I think there's both of those are yeses in that question. So, I think the first part, if we separate emotions, most definitely one on this aspect of this ride lower. Right. Like you said a couple weeks ago, we knew that the goal was to get beef prices lower, that you wanted to kind of bring those down, that you were looking at ways to make that happen, and it just sent the market into a tailspin. And to be honest, you struggled to really bring it back. Once you pick a direction for cattle.

[Yeager] Do you get the sense that maybe some of that outside money is part of this departure? Because they started looking at things differently, not the hot hand.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yes.

[Yeager] But they looked at it from a more realistic you know what, maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe that doesn't matter.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Correct. And I think you also looked at it as saying, okay, if the administration wants beef prices lower, why do I want to be long this market right now, even with the fundamentals. And so, we always have to remember you have your technicals and you have your fundamentals. And I'm a believer that eventually fundamentals will shine through. But there's a lot of times that they take the back seat. And this is one of those situations that they have to take the back seat until people are done. And I think you're getting close to that point. You've taken complete premium out of this market for the Mexican border being closed. I, we know that it is going to be a long time before you can turn everything around. We still aren't getting any government reports. So, I just think that, you know, you had it, it got done what it needed to get done. You flush people out and now you can bring in these new buyers. And I think your fundamentals are eventually going to show up and be like, yep, we're still tight. Yep. We're still the cash is still strong. You know, the cash is just not dropped even close to what futures have dropped. And so, it's a much different situation when you look at the two of them. Fundamentals I think are going to play their role again. But you just got to get the emotions out of it first.

[Yeager] So they're going to get a big neon sign. Flashers, buyers welcome. All right Aaron has another question to Christy. With all the uncertainty and a lack of government data for over a month now, including a number of missed reports, what's the 1 or 2 biggest things that could really surprise or move the market in the next couple of weeks? With belated and backed up of data dumps?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I you know, I tend to talk about grain markets a lot. So those are my -- 

[Yeager] That's why you're here, by the way. You're here to talk about -- 

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] I will give hogs their moment is that I think the lack of export data that we have has been really hurting the hog market, that if you wanted to really get the hogs out of this, if we could just see export data, I think that could be helpful to say that this market has that that demand coming in here. So that is one that I think could be a big one. And we have grain inspections on Mondays. So, we're still getting that information when it comes to grain. So, I think that's where it is for the meats. As far as other government reports, I think, you know, just with the wild swings that we've had lately, I think that knowing what managed money has been doing, have they been flowing out of meats and into grain markets. And I do feel like maybe that's possibly what we're seeing. That would be very helpful information. And when you say like, what kind of aspect or like what kind of big result could you have? I am just fearful that you're going to eventually open the government back up and get these reports. And we're looking at and saying, Holy cow, manage money is extremely long. These grain markets. And if they are extremely long, these grain markets, that takes a little bit of the wind out of the bull sale, because who else is going to be the buyer here? And we do have to remember that even with yield declines, there's ample amount of production that's going to get sold, especially in corn. And so, rallies are going to be met with farmers selling who's going to be that buyer of managed money has taken this opportunity to really get long. And so that is my those are my concerns would be export sales would be really beneficial for meats and manage money for grains.

[Yeager] Yeah. And that's been part of I think some of the things we've tried to do here is say, all right, we don't have government data. What do we do and what are the things to look at? So those are good pieces of information right. You want to have fun. Let's talk about the weather Gary in Wisconsin. South American weather here. Christy. What kind of weather problems would Brazil have to have to extend this bean rally?

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] A big one, I kind of hinted at this earlier. I do think that you would need a pretty significant problem. And here's the here's the nice thing about weather is that the emotion of weather usually is enough to get things going. So, if you could, you look at kind of where Brazil stands right now. They don't have a ton of subsoil moisture, which is okay right now as they wrap up planting. We all know, you know, it's not a bad thing to be planting in drier conditions. It's just what follows up with that moving forward. And so, because they're drier, if you do start off and you're not seeing those rains show up, I think it could give you that next leg higher in soybeans. You know, the resistance point, in my opinion, is around 1140 1145 ish for soybeans. Couldn't get through it. And so, if we could get through that, I think you could have that next leg up and try and hit those twelves. But I do think it would be dry conditions in Brazil, and I just don't think that that will eventually materialize to a production problem. But if we got it, the emotional side of things saying, hey, okay, we do know China's buying us beans. We do know we didn't plant a bunch of beans here this year, so we don't have a ton to give. That emotion could give you that next leg.

[Yeager] Well, at what point though, do we -- you mentioned it on the TV show of, you know, more acres in Brazil -- at what point does Brazil change even more? It has in the last couple of years because it is a much bigger region, which means you can't just rely on, oh, what did it do in Mato Grosso? Right. It changes that context. And so, what does that do for us trying to watch any type of signals out of Brazil.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah. You know that just the it's, it's like stings to admit it. But the dynamics are changing that like Brazil is soybeans. They are soybeans, right. They are the leader. They are the ones that are going to start producing the most. They are the ones that are going to be the leader of exports. And we're doing a great job building creche facilities here in the U.S. I can't stress that enough. What great things crush facilities do? I mean, think about the economic impact it has for rural America. I think it's so great. But we have to look at that situation and go, that's not changing any time soon. In Brazil. It's only going to get bigger. They're only going to continue to fine tune their transportation problems. You know, you talk about, well, we can we can get our beans to port far easier. We can do it better. Yes, we can do it better. But that's a fixable problem for Brazil moving forward. They know that's a problem. It's not like they're running out of land. That's not. You can't fix that. But they are able to fix that problem and continue to work on ways to transport their grain better, which is one of the things that held back China for so long. But now China's been saying, hey, we'll be part of that.

[Yeager] All right. Since you kind of gave me a little downer right there at the end. Give me something happy. Finish me positive here.

[Van Ahn-Kjeseth] Yeah, I think just the outlook. I think when you look at, you know, China stepping in, I've been a little bit harsh on the trade deal. But you know China's stepping in I feel like has at least put a floor underneath this market. Right. And so, I think that that gives a little bit of a comfort to it. But we have to remember, you know, three weeks ago what it felt like for producers like we need a government check. The farmers didn't want it. But you're talking about what a bad place you are in right now. And so, a lot of dynamics have changed. You've added a lot of that. What the government check was going to do for you onto soybeans naturally. So, if you're still going to look at a check, I just really think people should capitalize on that and continue to say, hey, where are my breakevens? Where are my flaws? Because this is something that can keep me sustained and keep me farming from year to year. And it's really looking up. And I do think you have those floors underneath you naturally now, which is nice.

[Yeager] That was nice. Good job. Very good. Kristi, good to see you again. Thank you so much. Thank you. Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth everybody. And next week we're going to talk about harvesting the superfood blueberries while they are trying to grow new markets. And we'll have Naomi Bloom with us to break down the markets. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week. 

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