Market Plus with Naomi Blohm

Paul Yeager: Welcome to the table for the Friday, November 14th, 2025. This is Market Plus. That is Naomi Blohm. I'm Paul Yeager. I have questions, but so many Dave Miller, our executive producer and I were talking before we recorded today and he was just like, are these questions? And I said, here's the thing. The questions are similar each week, but the answers change because so much is moving. I asked you at the beginning of the analysis segment, you know, we had no data for a while. We're kind of wandering. You're looking at basis. You said a couple of other things. Was that an okay time for a farmer? Are we going to look back at this and go, this was okay. We were, we didn't have negative news pushing us down. We just had to trust our gut or trust our instinct of what we thought was going on.

Naomi Blohm: Yeah, I would agree with that statement. And the news that we received was supportive to the market. We were seeing strong weekly export inspection numbers. So that means what's leaving the country. So that meant that our product was in demand. The weekly ethanol numbers, we had a record, one that came out over the past few weeks for the week. So we knew that the ethanol demand was there as well. And then basis throughout the countryside was fluctuating as it does at harvest, you know, in places where it was getting wider, it was, I think, more reflective because like in the Dakotas, China wasn't there to buy. So we were seeing weaker bases there. But other places in the Midwest, it was getting stronger. So the market I think, did a good job of figuring out. I think it’s truth or what it was perceiving to be the truth. For the last few weeks, and it gave farmers an opportunity to get some decent cash sales here. As harvest was wrapping up. I mean, the soybean market rallied over a dollar. What a gift. I think a lot of producers were able to take advantage of that, and only because the November WASDE report in classic November WASDE, the dud, we didn't get that fresh bullish news. So because we didn't get it, now we start to go into our seasonal slump lower for November. And our a little bit of a pullback here. But you know we had a great opportunity for producers to sell a little bit better than where we were just a couple months ago. And I'm, I'm thankful for that.

Yeager: You are.

Blohm: Yeah, absolutely. Because when you think about where things maybe could have gone to the downside with that crazy big yield number for corn, you know, that perception that the crop was getting smaller was enough to lift prices. Is it to where people want it to be? Is it as high as we want it to be? No, it's not, but I think give it until January or February and then you'll get your opportunity because we have to get through South American weather. We'll get more USDA data, we'll get a better idea of who's been buying what on these export sales. And I think things will start to iron themselves out naturally. And then there's that strong seasonal that's starting in December. Grain prices work higher into the end of the year. So I'm optimistic. But first we have to have a little bit of a pullback over the next couple of weeks.

Yeager: All right. Well we got a couple questions, I guess you just previewed everything. We're going to talk about. But one thing, whenever you say ‘truth’ I think I can handle the truth. So that's going through my mind. And you'll get your chance to talk about January. So we'll put a pin in both of those. Let's start with Gary in Wisconsin. Naomi, he wants to know, biggest event this week. Was it the government opening China, dropping projected import numbers or the USDA reports?

Blohm: Well, the USDA report I think was the showstopper from the standpoint of now, this is the data that we have to use for another month. And so now we start to put together the pieces of the puzzle as the other reports are released in a slow, timely manner, meaning the weekly export sales. And then we have to continue to keep an eye on basis levels. But yes, we just, we really needed this report and I'm glad it was able to come out. And I'm kind of glad that the USDA did their normal routine on it. And so they're going to kick the can down the road. You know, some things don't change. Yeah.

Yeager: And actually our Market to Market password by the way sorry. Kick the can down the road. All right I want to, I want to get to Bradley and Nebraska. This one's a very technical question about Brazil. And we're going to be here now talking about if this is the case, are the reports of poor germination in northeastern Brazil exaggerated? Now is the time of year we're going to be discussing in detail about Brazil.

Blohm: Yeah. So I hadn't heard too much about this issue. So maybe it's going to be something that starts to come across the newswire a little bit more often. Because definitely we're in that time frame where we have to start weather watching in South America. So hard to know for sure what is truthful out of social media. When you see pictures and things like that. But the USDA today, you know, they didn't make any big modifications with South American production, keeping things overall a large theme of production potential. So that is going to keep the market in check until we actually get some sort of a weather issue. So of course they're just finishing getting that crop planted. And usually late December into mid January is when we start to get excited about weather watching down there. But I'm guessing there's going to be something that helps to inspire a rally for prices into January, because it is still critical. You know, Brazil has to have this big crop because China needs it. So if they have bad weather for production, it becomes a global issue.

Yeager: Do you where do you sit in the question of beans in the teens here in the next two years?

Blohm: I think we're going to go into a sideways pattern for a while. I think this administration is going to do their best to try to keep prices on the lower side. I don't think like negative or really like depressed, but we're going to probably just go into that sideways price pattern. I hope it's not as long as what we saw from like 2014 into 2020, but I just feel like it's going to take a major weather issue back to back between South America and the United States in order to get the market to be very panicked about low production levels. One thing I'm going to be watching, though separately, would be what the fund traders have been doing. Once we start to get those commitment of traders reports. Now that interest rates are coming down, fund traders might want to come back in and play with commodities on the grain side of it, and they're still cheap. So that's something to keep in mind as well.

Yeager: Well, you mentioned that during the program talking about some of the you know, that was I think, cattle you were saying exiting. Where are they going? There was also a story yesterday about equities were lower. Where's that money going to go. Where's that money going to go.

Blohm: Well the hope would be that it can come into cotton and corn and soybeans and wheat because they still are undervalued historically. So if there can be a flashy headline about weather in South America or a flashy headline about Chinese demand, maybe for a variety of U.S. crops between sorghum and wheat and corn and soybeans, you know, all of it. There could be some momentum there. But for the bean market right now, when you look at a continuous monthly chart, there's going to be substantial resistance at $12, just like corn would have substantial resistance at $5. And the wheat market for Chicago wheat would have resistance at six. So we might be in a little bit of a trapped market pattern until we get some big news. But it's got to come on the production side in order to get prices going into the teens for soybeans.

Yeager: Yeah. And when you mentioned cotton, December cotton fell to a new low and third straight lower closed at one point this week. I think that's just written every week here.

Blohm: I know it's been on repeat. Yeah, that cotton market has struggled. I didn't get a chance to see what the report had for cotton today.

Yeager: But you can see that trend line lower.

Blohm: Yeah. Right. And that's the thing. And I think the perception is that there's been enough global production and maybe some concerns about the economy, global economy where potentially demand wasn't there. But I'm curious if we see a little bit of a competition for acres yet for multiple crops in the spring and even some of the specialty crops again, in the Dakotas, along with, of course, corn and beans. And now the corn and soybean ratio is kind of back to normal again. So we could maybe see that competition for acres. So that's another reason why prices could work higher into January after we have this two week pullback first.

Yeager: All right. We're almost to the January question. Scott in Wisconsin if you want to see your question. It was in the analysis segment ‘why is milk struggling.’ You answered that one I guess. How long could that struggle be?

Blohm: Well it takes dairy farmers a while to undo what they're doing. As far as the production. They would have to call the animals, you know, they would have to. That's the solution for a quick fix on price prices to rally. So it would be that combination. Or if we can see some better news on the demand side or on the export front, things can improve there. So there is actually another milk production report coming out. So even though we have this delayed September 1st, there's another one coming out. I think next Friday, also in conjunction with the Cattle on feed report. So we'll get another fresh round of news and hopefully we'll get some actual raw data on the demand side in the next couple of weeks too.

Yeager: All right. Let's do your January thoughts now. All right. Let's go. Jim in North Iowa wants to know Will USDA produce the true yield numbers in January or keep the market depressed? Beyond that.

Blohm: I think they'll give us the better numbers, the true numbers, the right numbers in January. That's kind of their mojo they use. That's the big annual report. And if they're going to give us any kind of a surprise that that's when they put it on there, and by then they'll have everybody back working and they'll have enough, you know, concrete information to print the true number. And again, my opinion is that it's based on client conversation, probably 180 to 181. I just really don't see this record number that they even printed today as reality. But we'll get there. And the January report always has a lot of fireworks. But just remember, with that January report, if we get some friendly news on it, that's then in conjunction with your winter price rally. And so your winter rally is your opportunity for selling grain in the bin. And that's between the middle of January and then the middle of February. And so when we're excited about, you know, starting to talk about who's going to be planning what in the United States. And when we're watching the weather in South America, when we're, you know, fuddling through all the USDA demand reports and the supply reports, that's when the market, a lot of times will give you your best marketing opportunities for the winter months. So just remember mid January to mid February. And if your snow birding you're going to have to enjoy watching the markets and not just sitting in the sunshine. You've got to pay attention to what's happening.

Yeager: Well, that's actually what I was going to ask you about. You're talking about November. It sounds like we should hibernate now?

Blohm: Yes. Right.

Yeager: And just reemerge in the middle of winter, right?

Blohm: Yeah. I would agree with that. That's definitely the time where we get the most market news. We get the winter rally, and that's when you have to really be on your toes. As far as you know, deciding what you're going to be. You know, getting out of the bin at that time or what you're going to try to hold on to for a summer rally. So it's a critical time frame.

Yeager: Have a plan.

Blohm:: Have a plan.

Yeager: And we are glad to have you here. Naomi. Great to see you.

Blohm: Thank you.

Yeager: Thank you. Naomi Blohm everybody, next week we are going to talk about a long running Midwest refugee center and their worries about the future. And Jeff French is here, and I will let you know that we are going to have an early call for questions. So keep an eye on our social media channels. We'll update you that throughout the week and sign up for that Market Insider newsletter on our website. We will see you next time. Thanks for watching. Have a great week.

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