Market Plus with Arlan Suderman

[Paul Yeager] Welcome back to the table for the Friday, December 19th, 2025 installment of Market Plus. Joining us now, Arlan Suderman. Arlan. Hard to believe 25 is almost done. We could do a best of list. We could do things. You have been busy talking to people about commodities. In 25, you had a really busy October. What's been the biggest story that the biggest question you've been asked in 25?

[Arlan Suderman] Well, goodness, trying to choose between is like trying to choose between your kids.

[Yeager] Well, no, I'm going to do that to pick your favorite.

[Suderman] You know, I'll go back to all back in the last year ago November, when President Trump was declared a winner, I was sitting on the couch with my wife watching the returns, and I turned to her and I said, well, I'm not going to be lacking for material over the next couple of years. And there were times when I'd write out copy to send to our customers for Daily Wire, and I'd have to rewrite it 2 or 3 times just before I could get it published, because the headlines kept changing, influencing the markets. That's how fast things are changing. And so I think volatility in the change was the big thing. Uncertainty has been the big story. Bottom line underneath of it certainly how big are the crops is a big story. That's kind of story every year. But this year we really jumped so to speak. That was certainly a big one. And then trade negotiations, the geopolitical tensions China what's China going to do. And of course we got boots on the ground in China. We're one of the few companies in the ag industry that does. So we're generally considered a source for that as well.

[Yeager] I've always appreciated that. And I know we've talked about that, you and I, before we roll on camera. But I want to have you now look into 26 if you could, as we put 25. Let's go. Scott in Wisconsin, please. What commodity are you betting on to go higher in 2026?

[Suderman] Well, I would say that soybeans has the biggest potential to go a lot lower or to go a lot higher. And we should know more in the weeks, weeks to come, hopefully not months to come. It's going to hinge on China, and a more optimistic about that. Will they follow through 12 million metric tons? That alone is not enough. It takes the next component, and that's EPA and biofuel. If we get a strong biofuel program and get it very early in the year, so that the industry can get started on it and actually have time to reach it, then I think that could tighten up stocks enough. We could see crush end up 150, 160 million bushels above where USDA has it right now. And exports, if they come close to holding, I don't think they'll hit USDA target. They come close. That really starts to pull stocks down with a big Brazilian crop. That alone is not enough to ration demand with higher prices, but it really leaves you vulnerable for weather scare. When we get into the growing season.

[Yeager] Have we flipped the biofuels discussion that we really, when we talk about it, we're meaning the soybean side versus the corn side.

[Suderman] That's all we talk about. But it's really both. But corn, the next step is taking us to E-15. Meanwhile, Brazil's at E right now mandated E30 blend. They're doing fine with it. In fact, that's one reason we have such strong corn exports is because they're building out their corn ethanol program so fast that as they expand production, they're not increasing exportable supplies. And so as global demand continues to grow, we're recapturing some of that growth and demand export wise. So Brazil is doing it. But here we need the E15. The next step that's probably going to take an act of Congress. And Congress is having trouble agreeing that the sun comes up in the East.

[Yeager] So I didn't even know they agreed to that. Yeah. That's news. Let's break in with that. When we talked about, you showed Julie you showed the January. Can we show the November contract for beans right now? Because I want to look at in light of what you're talking about because we all know what's going on. They're trending in the same direction. At what point will these two separate. Are they going to follow the same path?

[Suderman] You mean corn and soybeans?

[Yeager] No, no. I'm sorry. The nearby and the deferred on the on the on the beans.

[Suderman] Well, it comes down to if we end up with tighter stocks, then that's obviously going to support the nearby.

[Yeager] Correct.

[Suderman] And if we end up with China delaying delivery worries about cancellations and and too big a stocks. And part of that will go to January crop report. Do they lower the yield. Do they raise the yield. Do they leave it where it's at. That will impact that. We're talking about the carry in the market and the spread. At some point we've taken the soybean new crop, soybean corn price ratio from 2.372.38 down to 2.31 or so. When I checked last. So we're moving in in the other direction, favoring corn more. I still think that the market's going to want to once we get the EPA decision, going to want to make sure we buy soybean acres. And so that's what I'm looking for. That may mean corn coming down relative to beans, or it may mean beans going up relative to corn or some combination.

[Yeager] Well that might be tied to the next question then, because I haven't even really gotten into that. But Randy in Iowa wants to know, are corn yields coming down in the January report? He's talking yields. Then I'm going to ask you about acres.

[Suderman] Big crops get smaller. That's the history of it. That's opposite of what we always thought. But looking back at the data that's what they do. That's been my bias. I was asked back in early August off the air by a broadcaster, what's your gut telling you where this crop is? And I said, 182 183 186. We're still well above that. That's still a record. So will we go back down to that? I think USDA is hoping so. So they can lower their feed usage number, which is about 300 million bushels too high in my opinion. But you know, I was shocked when our November survey of our customers came in at 186. I thought, well, this is the time when we're finally going to be wrong versus USDA. And then USDA came in with the same 186, in their November report. So we've done our final survey of the year. Now we'll see where USDA comes in out to finish. My bias is still that it'll come in smaller, but that would be different from what our customers told us.

[Yeager] When's your final survey coming out?

[Suderman] November 1st was the -- 

[Yeager] Oh, okay. I didn't know if you had another one. Okay, okay. That's the one. Okay. Let's let's talk. Well, this again January report. This is Gary in Wisconsin asked you on next. Even if there is a bullish January report for corn. Does the sluggish wheat and bean market keep corn from a rally?

[Suderman] Yeah, I really think it does. You might get an initial response by the algos, but it's going to be tough for corn to sustain a rally to really with as high as feed usage is above. And I do expect exports to continue to go a little higher yet because right now we're exceeding the seasonal pace needed for both export sales and shipments. The seasonal pace needed at USDA record target by about 270 million bushels. I do think that will slow down some, but I still think they could go up another 100 million bushels with that target. But feed usage does need to come down, so you really need to get the yield to drop down closer to 180 before we start dropping below 2 billion bushels, which is really what's needed. You don't want to ration demand with higher prices too soon, or you'll get stuck with more bushels than you want at the end of the year.

[Yeager] Okay, January, February, you're talking about biofuels and fuel policy there. What becomes the bigger story? January? February? Is it South America? Crop size, whether it's raining out or is it biofuels? That is what we're going to focus on.

[Suderman] More biofuels. I think Brazil's crop is basically known.

[Yeager] Sure.

[Suderman] I think of it as now coming on to late August in the United States. Here, within two weeks, they'll be harvesting some of the early fields. Within four weeks, harvest will have a lot of momentum to it. And so that crop, if you look at the forecast a couple of weeks out, I think is largely known. So it's biofuels.

[Yeager] All right. Well, let's switch to the economy. That's always fun to close with. Everybody always loves to talk about the economy. Let's start Mitch in Iowa. He had a couple of good questions. This is another one with a favorable CPI inflation report now behind us. What are your expectations of the fed rate moving forward in 26.

[Suderman] A lot of pressure to lower it. We all want lower interest rates for the long term health of the economy. I think that'll be a mistake. I think that analysts are mis analyzing, misunderstanding the nature of our soft jobs report. I think it's less about structural problems with our economy and more about uncertainty that President Trump has created. President Trump has every incentive in the world now to remove uncertainty in the coming year. There are a number of stimulus programs in the one big, beautiful bill that take effect January 1st. M2 money supply is at record high levels. This economy is juiced. If corporations just had to confidence in policy to go ahead and expand and hire in, which would turn the consumer around as well to increase buying. And if that's the case, I do think we would get some modest inflation back. Once again. So I think the fed lowering rates worried about lowering rates isn't going to change the job picture. The only thing to change the job picture is uncertainty. The risk is if he doesn't remove uncertainty, it can get start snowballing on itself and getting a cycle and start going down. But I see a lot of changes in him right now, trying to bring about some certainty.

[Yeager] Because that becomes a political story quickly.

[Suderman] Very much.

[Yeager] That's what you're talking about with 26. Okay. Seven Kevin in southwest Minnesota had three questions. They were all really good. So Kevin, my apologies in advance, but I think I boiled them down to this metals inflation equities and QE. Yeah that bond is strong. Get your glasses out. Is the investment money entering the commodities as an inflation hedge. Or are the fundamentals so bearish in the ag grain supply and demand that the investment flow of money will wait for a supply concern to develop before they move assets into commodities.

[Suderman] If you break down the commodity categories, grain and oilseeds have the closest ten year correlation to the CPI 0.88. Anything above 0.7 is statistically significant. Energy's right behind that at about 0.85 or so. So a lot of correlation there. When the funds start worrying about inflation coming back with this last CPI report, they're really not right now when they start worrying about it coming back. That's when we would expect them to start putting money back into the energy, into grain and oilseed markets. That changes the level at which the market manages supply and demand all the way to the farm gate. Based on history, what history shows us, it's not now. Will it be in 26? My bias is that it will. I said that a year and a half ago. I think that that's still true. That's before I knew who would be president. Even that's just based on history and some of the dynamics. I think one of our biggest problems is runaway government spending, which is keeping the long end of the yield curve high. That's one of the contributing factors that I see this time around. But we'll see how that plays out.

[Yeager] I really want to ask some basketball questions, but I think I'm going to have to just table it for the new year.

[Suderman] The cyclones are really looking good.

[Yeager] Do you think the site are the cyclones a Final Four team.

[Suderman] Right now they are. And you know, it's a long season and time to peak is in is in March certainly. But they are looking quite good. What they did at Purdue was quite impressive.

[Yeager] What will be is there any indicator about how the Iowa State men Kansas men game. How that who wins that what the market does? Have you done any correlation.

[Suderman] No correlation there. But my money would be on the cyclones versus Ku.

[Yeager] You still can't say anything good about KU.

[Suderman] I love it, I still. how could I?

[Yeager] How could you I would be shocked. Ireland would be totally different. Good to see you Arlan. 

[Suderman] You bet.

[Yeager] Merry Christmas to you. 

[Suderman] Merry Christmas.

[Yeager] Arlan Suderman everybody. Next week we are going to look back at the year of economic ups and downs. We are going to have Jeff French and Chad Hart from Iowa State here to discuss the economy. So there will be an early ask for questions. We are recording on Tuesday, so look for the prompt on Monday on our social media channels. Thanks for watching and we will see you next time.

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