[Paul Yeager] Welcome to the table for Friday, January 2nd, 2026. Installment of Market Plus. Don Roose continues with us here. Don, got a couple of questions for your, you know, your best of your year of looking ahead to 26 and 25 in reverse. So, let's start if we could I'm sorry, I forgot to tell the control room which one I wanted to start with. Let's do Jeremy in Michigan because he's the let's look ahead first before we look back, Jeremy wants to know corn, soybeans or wheat? Which one do we need to be worried about most for 26? Positive or negative?

[Don Roose] I think probably the one to be most concerned with is soybeans. Just because more acres, big competition from South America. And maybe our export demand is a little bit slower. So, soybeans I think are the most concerning for this next year.

[Yeager] I had a cousin that once used to call himself a junk bond. High risk, high reward. Do beans have that sentiment for you because they do carry so much risk, but yet there could be a lot of reward if things just fall right for it.

[Roose] Well, the nice thing about soybeans is it cost of production is a lot less than corn, so you got that for an advantage. But, you know, for the soybeans to really get up and move out of here, it always seems to take weather. So, what's going to happen with the weather going forward? I think that's going to be the $64 question.

[Yeager] Well, how about a Phil in Ontario question. It's close to a $64,000 question. But our friend Phil good to have you back in the mix here with us Phil. Soybean prices have retreated from a surprising harvest mid-October. High is their potential to revisit that October. High in January of 26? Or is the specter of huge Brazilian soybean yields upcoming too much to overcome?

[Roose] Well, sometimes, you know, you don't get a second shot, you know? And that's why when you're up at areas that look like they're attractive, you take advantage of them. And I think when you're over 11, you go to 1132 on November. Soybeans look pretty attractive, you know, with tighter supplies this year, we could hardly do that. So yeah, I think in the rear-view mirror, you probably wish you did a lot of risk management up there.

[Yeager] That's always the case though. Every year everybody looks back at is there Phil had, you know, read one of the lines again that Phil said. He goes, we had a surprising harvest. mid-October high. Was there a big surprise in any of the grains this year that peaked or valid at points that are not normal?

[Roose] Well, I think, you know, I think he hit it, nailed it. You know, because the soybean market rallying up the way it did was really a surprise. We were a dollar too high versus Brazil off and on while we were rallying. And you know, it didn't seem to make sense. Funds were in buying. We had tariffs that made it tougher. And during those tariff times, the market went up. Anticipating China going to buy soybeans eventually.

[Yeager] As you saw in the piece during the program. About the recap in the year, I said we had done 30 different weeks plus 30 on talking on trade and tariffs. The president, in his first 11.5 months really hit that issue hard. Is it going away in 26?

[Roose] Well, you know, the one thing about it, we've never had a president, you know, while I've been trading this, ever been openly discussing some of these things? We're very market sensitive and actually moved the market. So, is it going to go away in the 2026? I doubt it. Are we going to keep talking about tariffs? Probably. Are they going to work? I think that's going to be the big question mark. I think what we're saying there's plenty of risk on the table. So, when you see places that look like your profitability is makes sense. You know we see a lot of people trying to lock it in. Paul.

[Yeager] When you see profitability strike, I'm hearing, okay, let me see if I've got that right. I want to thank Bradley and Nebraska for a question very similar to Phil's. So, I'm not going to say that one, but let's go. Let's go. Steve in Wisconsin, this one is much more of a narrow question. You already kind of talked about soybeans, but which commodity has the best chance of being profitable? I know you say you've been saying close to profitable, but let's actually stick that word. Which one's more profitable in 26 corn or beans?

[Roose] Well, I think the one that probably this last year that corn was a struggler. I think probably this next year, I think we probably have a better chance with the corn market being more profitable, maybe just the opposite of soybeans. One the acres are going to be down. Let's see if South America can have some weather problems with their second corn crop. And some of these other places.

[Yeager] Acres is always that thing we talk about in January, November, December. Some of those decisions are made. You don't. They're not going to change it. Even though corn has been so good in November and December, comparable to the other months, you don't see maybe a shift in corn to corn acres in 26?

[Roose] I don't think so. I think it's just the opposite, because I think what we had is so many acres switched out of soybeans to corn. Probably the wrong year to do it. And so, I think what we're going to see is just that natural rotation back. And I think that's what we're going to see. Profitability was not that great on corn. If there was and yields a little bit suspect I'm very expensive crop to plant Paul.

[Yeager] Very suspect. Were you talking about me? No that's not what you're doing. I have one more question. I know Scott in Iowa, and Don just laughed. And that's what's going to set this up. Don, Scott says you're always good for one liners. He has one that you could steal that he took from his late neighbor. Break even long enough. Eventually you go broke. That seems to be the feeling out in the country right now. Do you agree with that sentiment? 

[Roose] Well, I think most definitely look at the input costs that we have. I mean, they're just huge. And the dollar risk, everybody's farming a little bit larger than maybe they should. So, the exposure is a huge, Paul. So, you know no doubt about it. Eventually you have to make money in this business or you can't show up for work anymore.

[Yeager] One of the other things I was looking back was a conversation I had a couple of years ago with a banker from the 1980s in, in Iowa. And, you know, I was listening to some of the things that he had said that still hold true today. And we were talking about high interest rates. We're talking about certain producers that didn't make it, certain producers that did. I'm not asking you to necessarily forecast everything in 26, but what are factors? I mean, we've been talking about this. If we can just hold on to another year or two years, things might change. Is this the year that things finally do change one way or the other dramatically, not just incrementally? Whether it's less farmers, more farmers, smaller farmers, bigger farmers that we head in a certain direction is everything kind of pent up like a dam and going to burst here this year?

[Roose] I think it is pent up, Paul, I tell you, I've never seen a year going forward that hasn't looked very similar to the late 70s, early 80s. And by that I mean these assets have blown up terrifically. I don't care if it's machinery, if it's land values, assets are very high. And, you know, if they ever decrease, you know, you've got a lot of issues very similar to what we had in the late 70s. 80s that's really what that was. High interest rates caused the problem. It may be low interest rates and just the inflationary attitude from the COVID that just has everything blown up too high.

[Yeager] We had two consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The money is we're not going to go lower next, possibly in two cuts. Does that matter as much as it once did?

[Roose] Well, it does, but I think the real problem when you look at it, Paul, our debt level is so high right now. You're talking about short term rates, the long-term rates people don't want because our debt is so high. The people that buy bonds, they want a higher price. So, while short term rates have gone down, long term rates have actually stayed pretty high. You know, so that's the real issue going forward.

[Yeager] And at the end of the TV show, you said stock market has something we should watch in 26. Why? Let's let you expand upon that a little bit.

[Roose] Well, I think the number one thing is the P/E ratios are just terrifically high. And that's because there's no place to run, no place to hide. People are people are looking at where can I get in to beat inflation, whether it's psychological or real. So, I think things are just pretty inflated. If you don't believe it, look at what's happening to gold and silver.

[Yeager] But those had rallied in the fall in the same scenario, the same setup, the same conditions. So why now would they choose to have the air let out of them?

[Roose] Well, because that's what happened. You know, you blow the balloon up, puff enough times. Eventually it pops. So, I think that's what's happening to me. All asset values are terrifically being blown out of position. I mean, look at the land values. Look at machinery values. Look at the cost of living. You know, everything just seems to be out of whack. It seems like, Paul, we need a reset. And sometimes you have a reset like we had in the 80s where you just see assets decline rather than incline.

[Yeager] Well, we'll see how it unfolds in 26 when you come back and see us again. All right. You okay to do that?

[Roose] Look forward to it Paul. Always enjoy it.

[Yeager] Don Roose thank you so very much for your time all through this year and in all the years past. We've always appreciated. Thank you Don Roose. Happy New Year.

[Roose] Thank you. Happy New Year to you and all your listeners.

[Yeager] Don Roose everyone. And next week we are going to talk about a story from Oregon. It's a squid squabble. Yes, you heard me right. We're going to talk about squid next week. And we'll also have John Roach, our senior market analyst, to be here with us. Thanks for joining us. Have a great week. 

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