China Holds the Keys to Rallies for U.S. Farmers - Josh Hayes

[Yeager] There's a new way to stay connected and know what's happening with Market to Market. When you subscribe to Market Insider, one email and a lot of information awaits you, go to market to market.org and subscribe to Market Insider. A lot can happen in six months, especially when you have a presidential transition. Old ways, new ways, and also some of the old consistent things that happen each and every year with supply and demand.

[Yeager] When it comes to grains, it's time for a little market analysis on the MToM Podcast. Josh Hayes joins us again from Hedge Plus, based in Wisconsin. We polled him back in December to see what he thought about things. Corn, wheat, beans, soybeans, livestock and hogs. We're going to do it again. We're going to see how those predictions held up. I'll give you a little hint. We're going to talk a lot about tariffs and deals and what that means for agriculture in the months ahead. Does it have to be in ink? Do you have to see the work? Does it have to be significant? We'll cover it all with Josh in this installment of the MToM podcast. I'm Paul Yeager, your host. New episodes come out each and every Tuesday. Let's get to our discussion. Almost six months to the day. Josh, when we last talked. So I am going to hold you to every letter of what you predicted six months ago. You okay with that?

[Hayes] Absolutely. I feel pretty good about what you said. I'll gladly admit the things we were wrong about. You. Which wasn't much.

[Yeager] What did we know? I mean, we knew when we last talked at the end of December. Yeah, we were approaching lots of things, and we knew Trump had been elected. We knew that was going to happen and what that would mean. Let's start politically first, did everything you thought that was going to come true has come true?

[Hayes] Yeah, I'd say so. We we knew the reason behind the tariffs. We knew that countries couldn't withstand them very long. We knew a lot of it was more about exercising our leverage. And, we definitely didn't think China would hold out too long either. the one thing I would say I was wrong about, and I don't even know if I sit down your on your program, but I said it in a lot of places because I didn't think the tariffs would even have to go into effect because a lot of these countries were staring at almost instant recession and major impacts right away. And just the thought or the threat of the tariffs, we thought, you know, would lead to countries coming and making deals before they even took an effect on reality. These countries played a little bit of hardball, tried to hold their leverage as long as they couldn't until last minute. But, very quickly, you know, came and, you know, deals are going to start rolling out pretty rapidly. We think, here soon. But the other aspect of it with with China, with talking about that their economy couldn't withstand it, nothing like the position they were in in 2018. Not only did they come to the table pretty quickly, but word starting to come out and this is sourced on Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Zero Hedge. They're all indicating that, you know, China reached out about a month ago, which is pretty soon after the tariffs took effect. And one of the stipulations they placed was that, those those talks that they had a month ago remain secret. They didn't want it to look as though they were caving to Trump. And, so China actually caved pretty quickly. The impact was definitely felt, much greater by China right away than it was in the United States. Some factories started to shut down, ships turned around. some companies in China were already facing bankruptcy, so they did need to get something relief from the these, tariffs pretty quickly. And, then there's that aspect. I'm a little disappointed. I think it's going to take longer than I would have thought to get the deals actually done. And I think the market is also going to have to wait to see more, you know, and the not just the faith that the deals are going to get done, that the deals are actually signed and done. before we start to see an impact in prices.

[Yeager] They want to see ink on the paper.

[Hayes]  Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was good though. Okay. let's deal with that, real quick, that you came had such an emphasis that deal had such an emphasis on farmers. I mean, that was the first thing Trump mentioned. And Secretary Rollins was very, very vocal on media, on media, social media about how this these deals are going to help farmers. And, you know, it definitely indicates that that's going to be a big priority in all these deals, which is something we were glad to see and something we expected as well.

[Yeager] One of the things we'd heard inside China was that they are as a people were being postured to that America was the bully and they're going to stand up. But the United States also, there's people in this country who say America is the bully or China is the I mean, there's both sides being talked about as who's really, bluster and who's, for real. What does that do to people that you talk to on a regular basis on the phone who are like, Josh, I'm kind of nervous about what's going on. How do you play the role of therapists, knowing that there's all of this posturing going on?

[Hayes] Yeah, exactly. It's not only our clients, but it's, you know, just, you know, what's out there in the media, and it impacts traders too. You pretty much have to assure them that it's the, you know, for the right reason, which I truly believe. I don't know if we talk too much about this back in December, but we did talk about leverage. And it's it was disappearing leverage for United States if we didn't do this now, try and balance this trade. There comes a time where these countries, which were actively trying to find ways to replace having to buy from us, that they would successfully be able to do so. You know, China was already on that path with what they're trying to do to develop South America so they can get more of their ag from South America. There's countries trying to develop farmland in Africa. And, you know, just outside of agriculture, these countries are trying to, you know, build you can get factories built and build up, consumer bases and all these other parts of the world so that one day they could have, you know, completely ignored these threats. They wouldn't have harmed them. But we, it did have. It did have great impact on these countries. And they did have to come to the table quickly, ultimately, that's the justification I try to give people. We're not trying to do anything that's unfair or trying to bring some jobs back to the United States. We're trying to, expand our markets, countries that there's really no need for them to avoid buying some of our agriculture. You know, we still I don't see anything that's being done with Canada yet about the fact that they don't buy our dairy products because of the tariff they have on our dairy, which is exorbitant. And it's been there for decades. But, you know, there's no reason why the UK shouldn't be buying more of the agriculture from us. And we still produce some. We produce the highest quality agriculture. And that was actually one of the things that popped up in the past month as China tried to shift their buying, from South America, step up their buying. So they ran into a lot of logistical issues and, the quality issues. So we had to do this now while we still can, because the deleverage would have disappeared eventually.

[Yeager] Was there one commodity in particular that you think was caught up in this trade? back and forth?

[Hayes] Oh, it was definitely appears to be the soybeans, from the balance we've gotten since, I guess the, the the initial step that was taken this week with, the tariffs being lower, the rates being lower, you know, but we've had corn and wheat drift down, but I don't really think that has much to do with, with, with the tariff standoff. That's, it's definitely weather. But yeah, soybeans. you know, I tried. I saw the same headline early in the year that just popped up today about this. If China doesn't make a deal with the United States, we're going to the U.S. is going to lose 20% of its soybean sales. It's almost as if it's another push to, to, you know, scare people or put people in doubt that it's actually going to happen. I don't even worry about it having one. I'm very confident it's going to happen. I think these deals are absolutely necessary for every everybody United States and the other countries on the other side. But it's not that simple. If China were to just, you know, blow off the United States, ignore the tariffs and say, we can we don't need to trade with you. If they were to shift those purchases to South America, the prices are only going to go up. And South America, South America can't meet all of China and all of the world's demand. It would have just shifted demand to the United States, countries that maybe typically didn't buy from us as soon as they saw cheaper price, the United States, they would have come to us. So it's a headline that just keeps going out, getting circulated and regurgitated and, you know, that it's unfortunately has held back trade. And I think I've expressed it this week and I've seen other people start to say it as well, that it seems as though the trade is not buying into fully what the USDA is projecting for demand. And, I guess once they finally do buy into that, then maybe we'll see prices start to rise.

[Yeager] Oh, that's not the first time that USDA maybe has lagged behind what maybe is reality. It's that one is, it’s just a more of a cautious number do you think than it is an aggressive number when it comes to what we think for exports or what we think through demand, what we think we're going to use.

[Hayes] Fair and say cautious. I'm, we're actually thrilled with what the USDA put on on Monday. It seems as though the industry's skeptical all that, that we're going to continue having, you know, demand climb each year. I mean, they're even showing there's one number I'm skeptical of. They're showing that we're going to it's still have increased demand for wheat. I just you know that I'm starting to just not feel too strong about that. I think the world is moving away from wheat doesn't have the added uses, you know, like we have with biofuel and ethanol that just doesn't quite exist with wheat. And I think, you know, so I'm a little skeptical about that. But as far as demand for corn and beans that the USDA projects putting us at, you know, pretty considerably tight stocks given record, production for corn and, you know, any stocks below 300 million bushels for soybeans, even though, they're projecting trend line record yield. So that's optimistic. it actually says that if we have any issue whatsoever, we could get tight real fast. And that's that's why we think, you know, we never we never root for a drought. We never definitely, certainly never count on a drought. But we do know there's always going to be weather scares. And when we get those weather scares this year, even if it's brief, prices will probably go higher because really, none of this is getting priced in right now. So and if that's because people are still skeptical that we'll get these deals and so be it.

[Yeager] And even if the United States isn't the biggest dog at the dish, it's still there. And it still matters. Is what you're saying right?

[Hayes] It's a finite supply. You know, it's when we print what we produce goes into the pool. And it's what the world's using every year. You can't just stop buying from the United States. Then the prices everywhere else would skyrocket. Eventually countries are going to come back to the US. So even if China were to avoid buying from us, someone else will.

[Yeager] Well, let's go back. Let's go back to wheat then. Josh, for a moment, you talk about, I think six months ago it was we were looking at Russia, Ukraine. We're still looking at that. Now it's a little more of a weather issue. If there is peace there, which of those factors? And a huge supply, is the biggest for wheat moving forward?

[Hayes] Yeah. I think weather is pretty much off the table. I mean, I go back and forth reading about weather with Russia and Ukraine every day. One day it's too wet, next day it's too cold, next day it's perfect. Right. So, the next day it's been too dry. So, the reality is the supplies there, the projected ending stocks are there. We're not going through, supply fast enough. we talked about a, a range on wheat for this year of five 5650. Well, looks like we might have nailed the top there with that one. probably didn't, definitely came earlier than we expected. And we are happy. That made sense then, but I, I think I overestimated on the bottom. Obviously we went below 550. we're, we got near $5 this week and I think, hopefully we've landed there and, you know, we've put in a floor, but not not real optimistic there. The, the USDA, I think, has us said, oh, was it, was it nine, nine projects, a nine year high for, for ending stocks for, for wheat at the end of this year. And, yeah, it's just that's not a very favorable picture for wheat. so unfortunately it looks like the high, you know, might have already taken place this year. Unless of course, we sell.

[Yeager] For the next six months.

[Hayes] Yeah, we say that with, always saying can't predict a black swan. So. But, we do I one of the things I emphasized when we met back in December was that, we felt like we're coming back into those normal ranges, a dollar range with corn and wheat and a $2 range with $2 range of soybeans. And, Yeah, it looks like that's where we're going to be unless we have some kind of major scare. So if there's no more, I think they're going to have a peace deal soon. And, if there's not some major weather issue, it's going to be just your, your, your trickling, your, your small moves up and down. But again, like I said then that's still a dollar. So you want to make sure that you're making your sales and your advising and giving out, those recommendations at the top of that $1 range for corn and wheat and at the top of that $2 range for soybeans, we haven't made a recommendation yet for new crop soybeans. we think it's, best days are ahead. But we made a big recommendation in February, and we are at that high. And we made a recommendation on corn at that time as well. So,

[Yeager] We'll get back to your recommendations in a minute. I want to go back to something you just said, which is also tied to our earlier discussion about these deals you mentioned. We need to see ink just because it is said there's a deal? And I asked this to another couple of analysts. Is it a good deal? A deal is what if it is the same? And there's very minimal change? Is that enough to move the market or enough to appease people saying, see, we got change.

[Hayes] Yeah, it's definitely going to vary. And yeah, I think the key will be in the details. So far we only have the UK and I think it was significant what was in the deal, which is why I'm optimistic that farmers are going to be a priority in these deals. But the reason that one didn't move the markets because it's just the US, the UK, it's not a huge deal. So the market's definitely waiting to see, deals with Japan, China obviously. even Mexico, you know, in Mexico. It's just funny that two of the ones we're, we're banking on the most, China and Mexico, they're having some real weather issues. And, you know, China is having some major problems with wheat. They just made a purchase a couple weeks ago, round of purchases with Australia and Canada. I have no doubt in my mind those deals could have been made with us. If the what's taking place since the lowering of the tariffs. so, yeah, that we definitely need to see, you know, that they can't just be, small deals. I know one of Trump's objectives is to leave behind a 10% tariff in place on everyone to generate revenue to offset some of the federal income from income tax. And, that'll be something we'll have to be overcome because even at 10%, that's a, you know, a price put on top of our goods that, you know, we run into tight margins trying to compete with South America. So these deals are going to have to include commitments to buy our grain. And that's what the 2018 deals did. And that's what China has already, I believe, even on their own volition, indicated that they're going to get back to honoring those commitments. So that's a good start. And then, yeah, I mean, heck, to have, UK have a 19% tariff on our ethanol and then they weren't going to be buying any. Well that's gone. It got dropped down to zero. So okay let's that's what Trump said. leading up to these tariffs is about opening up new markets. And yeah. So if we weren't selling any ethanol UK now we can that's, that's definitely helpful. And we hope to see that obviously, amplified with bigger deals with countries that buy more and you know, have that have accentuated it.

[Yeager] Is a move to year round E15 enough to help corn? I mean, it's not we're looking at 10 to 15. That's five percentage points. That is you know, some bushels. But is it enough to influence the market higher and chew into a pile.

[Hayes] Yeah. It's definitely hasn't so far. And, as a matter of fact, ethanol fortunes came out that, you know, I think we're at like a 53 week low on, on production. remember some of that is because this is seasonally the lowest time of year. So. And one sentence, you say it's the, you know, 53 low for 53 week low for production in next sentence, you realize that for this week in the year it's something like the second or third highest. So production is down right now because this is when it typically is. They should be ramping up soon. Now, if they don't ramp up production into the summer driving season, then then yeah, that's something to be concerned about. But, you know, I think the more that has to do with the low price of oil, which if you if you'll let me segue to that, I, I think oil was a whole a big part of the strategy. Trump knew that one of the criticisms of putting on these tariffs was going to be inflation, and that was going to be used against them. So he didn't do this on day one. He did a lot of things on day one. But he didn't implement these tariffs until April, because what he did first was make sure that oil production was ramped up. Oil prices came down as an offset for tariffs. He doesn't want it to be there forever. He wanted inflation to come down to prompt the fed to lower rates. You definitely want that to happen to really jumpstart our economy. At some point, he's either going get his way or he's going to have to abandon it. He's not going to want to keep oil prices down like this forever. When oil prices start to come back up, that's going to obviously help, you know, grain commodities, corn and soybeans especially. And your clue on that, I'm going to tell him right now when Trump makes a move to refill the strategic oil reserve, it's because he's confident the low is in. I firmly believe that. So when we see that I think we're going to that'll be right before the, you know the production levels on oil get turned down. He's in the Middle East right now, no doubt making deals on that. No doubt. You know, coming up with a plan and, that's going to be our tell is when, when he starts to refill the strategic reserve, then, then I think you'll see that that's probably the bottom for oil.

[Yeager] What else in corn here in six months? that you see, that you think holds, it can't all be ethanol. It has to be used corn in the last six months since we've talked has been the the strongest of them cannot continue to be the strong.

[Hayes] I think the potential is actually highest for soybeans, but corn is probably going to be the steadiest and safest. And, yeah, I think, we'll see corn included in some of these deals. I think, one of the things that's really talked about isn't just about getting countries that, buy these things from us already to commit to buying more, you know, to, you know, instead of shopping around in price shopping, get it's, you know, inked in stone as far as purchases, I think it's going to be countries that don't typically buy from us. Also starting to buy from us. And that, I think is definitely going to be, with corn and not just through ethanol either. and right now it's, you know, you you do have one factor, holding corn back a little bit is, one, one change the USDA did make this week with South America production is they did raise the production for Brazil's corn crop. And that's from the Sarina crop. being really great shape that's a free new crop. Season's going well. And, it was the first time they've made an adjustment to anything in South America. And they raise that up. So there's going to be that to compete against. And, but, you know, at these projected ending stocks, I mean, we're, we're a tight we're a tighter projected ending stocks than we were at this time a year ago. And prices were a dollar higher. So right now, I truly believe the biggest thing hold the markets back is, you know, it takes, you know, got three months of everybody saying doom and gloom and this is terrible idea. And we shouldn't be doing these tariffs. And these countries don't need us. And it takes a while to let that go and to accept that, no, these deals are going to happen and the demand is going to be there. And if it is just like the US is projecting, we are the the smallest, whether it's away from bounces, but they'll come back down. You know, the if we unless we have some major weather issue, the crops are going to be there. It's going to be a big crop, big corn crop. And, you know, so that's why any, any kind of bounces, you probably going to have to capitalize pretty quickly as soon as the weather scare goes away, which we always wanted to.  We don't want actually to have a full on drought or anything like that. take advantage in those, those quick jumps and then be patient again and wait until the next one.

[Yeager] Is that window only open through pollination and mid-July and that's complete.

[Hayes] Yeah. We've had a year or 2.12 unfortunately. That was more drought driven that, you know, the best sales you're saving sales for farmers were made in late July, but, yeah, we want to have our, where we have we have basically one more sale to make on corn and beans on old crop. And, we're looking at that coming in the next two months. But, it's always a gamble. It's a gamble to be sold out right now, to be honest with you, if you sold out last week at, at, 450 and 1050, it's a gamble that you're going to miss out on, much higher prices because we're we're on a, you know, a razor's edge of anything that could drive prices higher. But it's still a gamble because what if we don't? What if the weather stays great, right?

[Yeager] Are you selling out an old crop there or a new crop?

[Hayes] This would be for old crop. We're. We're looking to make one more sale. Yeah. Buy. That's certainly before harvest. but we've, we've, held off on making that last sale. We have, like I said, we've made one a couple of initial sales with corn dating back all the way for a new crop, dating all the way back to last May, when we sold 10% on this year's new crop that far in advance. And in February, we made another 15% to bring us to 25% sold on a new crop, corn, but no sales yet on soybeans. Price just hasn't been there. And, we think it's got a lot of room to go higher. When I met with you back in December, I talked about 950 to 1150. Definitely 1150 is definitely still possible. The only thing is we could blow past that. We could easily blow past that with, these projected ending stocks and, you know, expecting record yields. I'd give you a great example. If we have soybean yield, just the average of the last three years, and we don't set a new record, we don't continue to go higher. Just the last three year average would put us at pretty much pipeline levels at these acres. So soybeans actually have potential go past 1150 hasn't happened yet. But I would actually start to safely say we wouldn't put 950 as a realistic option anymore. I just I don't think we'll get anywhere close to 950.

[Yeager] Is that with or without trade deals?

[Hayes] I'd say it's with trade deals, because I'm, I'm very certain that these trade deals are going to happen. It's in everybody's interest to make them happen. And, like I said, you know, the biggest fallback is let's say let's say let's say China and the US, their negotiations drag all the way out to the end of the year. And, we've already got the new crop coming to market. It still doesn't matter if they're not buying it from us. Somebody else will. It's just the reality. The South America is not in a position to supply the whole world, including China, with all their soybeans and corn right now. So, I'm fully confident the deals are coming, and they're going to include these grains, but, it's just, you know, it's a finite supply. So anything that, any additional sales that take place there, it's going to mean, some countries that normally would have bought from Brazil or Argentina aren't they're not going to be able to fill all those orders if they fill everything for China. So those countries will come to us. And I think that's going to happen regardless, regardless of whether it's forced to, because China has taken all their beans or via trade deals. And I think we're going to see what have we just have we had, Pakistan buying from us for the first time in three years. And I think some of those sales are preemptive, you know, get on get on good terms with the Trump administration as you're trying to negotiate these deals. And I think that's the kind of thing, the easiest thing, Patrick says it's all time. The easiest thing for these countries to agree to buy from us. That doesn't hurt their own production. These countries produce electronics and, you know, clothing and all and cars and all these things. The easiest thing to agree to buy from us, to make us happy, to get these tariffs lifted, is to buy food. Who's going to argue, you know, against you buying food for your people. And then on top of that they talk about China putting out the warning don't start. You know buying from the U.S anything you typically buy from the U.S for food. You're not going to anger China by agreeing to a deal to buy food from the US. You're not in competition against any of China's exports, so that makes sense. It's logical and it's just a world supply situation overall anyway.

[Yeager] It's kind of hard to buy though, a lot of beef right now. I mean, it's expensive...

[Hayes] Yeah, yeah. I, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that, something I've been starting to throw out. There is a, I think the, the cattle market starting to, to, in a lot of ways mirror the oil market. You've got, you know, the packing industry so consolidated margins are so narrow. It's leading to consolidation with ranchers. And, when you get that way, you can kind of start to control prices and you can try to make sure they're in a range that's the most profitable. And right now we're feeders over $300. You kind of need, live cattle will be at least 215 to have a chance at making money. And, you know, with competition out the window, they can kind of pretty much drive things the way they want. And they've driven it's so tight supply that any disruption, it's just amplified. So screw worm hits. And you know, the issue we had with Mexico last month and any kind of issue is going to, you know, send the market sawn in on other aspect. I saw your, I was it, Mark (Gold) from Stone X from your, from the studio show and he was talking about, you know, what price does consumer demand start to fall? And that's definitely, you know, what's going to eventually stop this, right? don't I? I totally agree with them. And the only thing I'd add is that it's kind of seems like people are willing to pay whatever it takes right now. Well, obviously that's got a breaking point, but I think there's a true dietary shift. I think there's a lot of people eating more beef, even if it costs more. And it's, you know, a dietary reason. There's a big push right now for, you know, there's a lot of diets centered around eating meat and getting away from processed grains and processed foods and sugars and, you know, so I think that's part of it too, is people are going to if people are going to if they aren't going to stop buying. As these prices rise, you know, the consolidation of the cattle market is just going to drive it as high as they can go until it finally, you know, meets some resistance. And I don't think that's happening yet.

[Yeager] So in your eyes this is more of a consolidation issue than it is a low number of supply, and just low number of cattle in the United States that's driving this higher. Right.

[Hayes] It's definitely low supply, but I think that's part of it. The consolidation is it's control of supply, really. And, it leaves the market very vulnerable to, like I said, just about anything. And, you know, when you can, it's the same way OPEC controls the oil supply. And to try and OPEC and the oil, you know, all the oil producers, they like to have oil between 65 and $85. And they can't always make sure that happens. But they definitely have an oversize role in that in in how that shakes out. And I think that's what we're seeing in the cattle market. An oversize influence is certainly not there's no OPEC, organization. But, you know, for big Packers and the way they control that side of the market leads to unfortunately, a lot of the smaller ranchers getting out of the business and only the large survive. And then that leads to even more consolidation. So, yeah.

[Yeager] Maybe we'll have to come up with our own four letters to describe the right packers on another thing, maybe the first letter, then we can trademark it for.

[Hayes] Yeah, yeah.

[Yeager] There you go. Yeah. We'll come up with something, quickly as we finish with hogs.This is a market that has had a couple of dips up. Is it an alternative to beef? Is it an alternative price wise?

[Hayes] Yeah, I think it's a little bit of an alternative. I don't think, people maybe that's where we'll see the next, drive higher with hogs is when people finally relent to high prices of beef, but they still want to, you know, eat more meat, right? And then maybe they'll shift, too, to hogs. but, hogs have been more susceptible to the trade deals and, you know, needing, needing China's demand. So, that kind of bounces back and forth kind of the same way soybeans do. And when things are looking good with China, you know, hogs take off a little bit. And as soon as the scare comes again, the market dips. And that's kind of where we're at right now, where we were sitting around $100 for quite a while there. Dip back below. haven't look today, but I wouldn't, I'd be surprised if we're back up to 100 just yet. So that's that's, that market, I guess, isn't quite as susceptible to disruption because there have been some disruptions in the hog market aside from just, you know, trade deals and whether or not a deal would get made. But, yeah, I think you might have nailed it that, we'll eventually see the hog market pick up when people start shifting to a cheaper alternative to beef.

[Yeager] All right. Lastly here, we know that trade deals take months, sometimes years. Can the market sustain the headlines back and forth? Yes a deal no a deal. Not the deal. Not a good deal. Bad deal. Really good deal. Can we were sustain that for six months? And will the market have patience? 

[Hayes] Yeah, I think we're in a good spot actually, because I think the markets are ignoring. I think any deal like it's sign is, is only give me a positive but unfortunately not a big positive. We saw that with the UK deal. it didn't even shoot the market up in the initial minutes after that deal came out. But of course bigger deals could have a bigger impact. But what I think is going to happen is it's going to it's going to it's not who's going to take the chance. People may not be betting on these deals coming, but who's going to bet against them. So how much lower can we go on the down? I think the doubt that the demand the USDA is projecting is going to be there. I think that's that's, you know, that doubt is gone and I think that's priced out. So, I don't think we're going to have, huge leaps from any deals that can announced. I think that's still going to be whether but, between weather and the deals that come and having the numbers show up more, that demand gets cemented as reality. It has no choice but to pull the markets up just on the pure fundamentals of it. So yeah.

[Yeager] Anything else written on the piece of paper there to your side that we didn't cover?

[Hayes] Oh man, so much. But no, I think we, we pretty much covered it. yeah. We've I'm glad I got to mention that about, that little prediction about the oil market when Trump makes that move on the reserve.

[Yeager] Or some tariff.

[Hayes] You can pretty much bank that feels the low is in and that the oil prices are going to start coming back up. But right now I like I said, he's holding out for the Fed to reduce rates. So you might have to abandon that. They seem pretty stubborn.

[Yeager] All right. Very good. Josh Hayes good to see you again. Thank you so much for the time.

[Hayes] Thanks, Paul.

[Yeager] If you have feedback for me send me an email at markettomarket@iowapbs.org. Like subscribe, tell a friend about this podcast. We'd really love even some reviews, if you don't mind. Maybe we'll even read them here at the end of the next podcast. We'll talk to you next time. Bye bye.