Crop Market Insights: Navigating Agricultural Economic Uncertainty

Paul Yeager: welcome to the MtoM podcast at the Iowa State Fair. I'm Paul Yeager. Aaron Lehman is the president of the Iowa Farmers Union, and it is Iowa Farmers Union day here. So Aaron, perfect day to go for a golf cart ride, and I'm getting you out of work.

Aaron Lehman: That's right. We've had a lot of prep work to get here, and a little break with you is is very welcome. Why are you at the Iowa State Fair? Well, it's a great opportunity to have some outreach with Iowans and actually from people around the world, but we get to tell our story of our farmers in a really fun way. We've got interactive events with the local food system, with soil health. We have sweet corn eating contest that's going to be going on, hay bale rolling contest and all. That's a fun setting to talk about issues that are important to family farmers, and why a Farmers Union likes to be here is because it's such a great atmosphere to have great conversations with people. 

Paul Yeager: In that and when you talk about these exhibits. People come flying by. They come walking by. What is the opening line that you use to get somebody to stop?

Aaron Lehman: Well, it might be, can I be? Do you want to be in our sweet corn eating contest? That might be the opening line, but the real purpose is, hey, do we want to talk about family farming? Do we want to talk about rural communities? Do you want to talk about what's happening in agriculture? So that's our opening line. 

Paul Yeager: Do you get the sense that people are more receptive to the messaging in town than they are in the country?

Aaron Lehman: Well, I think it's a great reminder that Iowa is a whole, right? It's rural areas, it's urban areas, it's and that's Iowa agriculture too. We are feeding the people of the state. All the things we do in rural Iowa impact urban Iowa as well. We're all in this together. So it's a really good setting for that.

Paul Yeager: I always ask people about that rural, urban combo, I guess, combo platter, as it were, do you feel that the Iowa farmers union messaging could still use a little more? I don't want to say strength, but a little more. I guess we'll just say straight with some of the other farmers, let alone those are in town. Oh yeah.

Aaron Lehman: I mean, we're we, when we talk to farmers about issues that we're working on, things that activities we're doing, it resonates really well. Whether it's large farmers, small farmers, commodity farmers, food system farmers, and people in our urban and suburban areas as well. But we need to get the message out there. We need to do a better job of saying who we are and what we're all about and how we can all work together to make

Paul Yeager: it happen. I've seen you on a lot of interviews nationally talking about trade, sure, I'm guessing that's the number one issue right now.

Aaron Lehman: It's really top of mind for farmers. We it's it. It's a very confusing time, and there is not much certainty about what's going on. And you know, farmers have invested years of work building trade relationships around the world, and how do you do that? Well, you show that you're a good partner, right? You're reliable. You You will work through issues. Now, we've got issues to work through. We've always had, we and we will continue to work for fairer trade, something that makes more sense for farmers in the field and in their pasture, as opposed to just numbers. We want it to make a real difference for foundation, but this approach isn't getting us there, and there's a lot of uncertainty right now.

Paul Yeager: There are new markets though that, and it's about fairness. I hear new markets and fairness, that's a tough that's a tough balancing line the White House is trying to do right now, because they are trying to kind of get this thing a little closer with China, but when China's not even buying soybeans right now, that's right, that has to be of a concern to you. 

Aaron Lehman: It's a huge concern. Farmers are tightening their tightening their belts, trying to figure out how they can make this happen. We know that a lot of lenders and farmers are already having intense conversations about, how can we make this happen until we get a better framework that gets us to a point where we can say, Okay, we have some certainty. We can make some plans. We can talk about new innovations on the farm, new machinery that needs to be updated next generation on the farm, then we can get to those issues. We can't put those off for much longer before we start seeing some real sacrifices being made. 

Paul Yeager: There were, though a few years where there were people buying iron and dirt, they're still buying those things. That has continued to be a. The purchase. But now you're starting, you're saying you're starting to see some tightening around that.

Aaron Lehman: Yeah, you know. And I think it's even reflected in our farm manufacturers, you know, this is, that's one of the things that I would always do with my dad, when we'd come to the fair, we would go to see the iron, to see the new machinery, see, have conversations about how we could do upgrades. I'm not hearing a lot of conversations about new stuff being sold. A lot of people just tightening their belt, trying to get by, maybe some used equipment, putting off those ideas. Our local manufacturers are not bringing new people on. In fact, they're letting some people go right now to weather the storm. So it's having impacts in our in our local communities.

Paul Yeager:  The local communities, from some of those economic development folks would say we started losing rural communities when we no longer had 12 kids in the family coming and all working on the farm, and it might be down to two or three, and not all of them are coming back because efficiencies. We've gotten really good at using big implements. We don't have as many small individual farms. How do you see growing rural areas, whether it's your community or any others across the state? 

Aaron Lehman: It's about providing those opportunities for those for those farmers and for our rural communities. You know, I'm still impressed every day about the young people who want to get involved in agriculture, and they have innovation on their mind, they have sustainability on their mind, they have resilience on their mind. All these things that can move agriculture in the right direction. Are we providing opportunities for them to make that impact in our rural communities, which we know needs that investment of energy, needs that investment from our young people. So providing those opportunities. What does that mean? Might be more fairness in our commodity system, so that we can return more to the farmers for what we're growing there, growing our local, regional food system is important for Iowa. Those innovations make a big difference in all sorts of for all sorts of farmers and all sorts of communities. Those two things are really important, and we all need to do in a way that can lead to cleaner water and healthier landscapes.

Paul Yeager : Water. Let's, let's discuss water. Yeah, that has been just last week when we're recording this. Aaron a survey commissioned out of Polk County. Yes. Want to talk urban and rural. Easy for me to say, Yeah, together about the source of nitrates and agriculture getting kind of put into those crosshairs when you see that report, you knew it was coming and because that has been the talk all summer, and yet you're you're no stranger to the agriculture criticism that's out there. What was your first reaction? 

Aaron Lehman  Well, to be honest, this was a lot of information that has been ongoing in Iowa. This study wasn't brand new research. It was pulling together all the different pieces of research from Iowa, state, from the state of Iowa, from our other institutions here. So it wasn't necessarily new research, but bringing together and focusing on the issues it's really important. And the thing that struck me was how much it emphasized the need for farmers to be part of the solution, and that these problems, which are real, can only be fixed by real farmer, public ad partnerships. What's that look like? Well, unfortunately, some of those efforts are really under attack rate, you know, our local USDA offices and the number of technical service providers and all those things that make a difference in getting practices that lead to clean water on our on our fields and in our pastures. A lot of those things are at risk right now. We're seeing big proposals for the nuts and those very programs that we should be investing in.

Paul Yeager  Do you? Do you get the sense that maybe this problem will kind of solve itself at the high input cost of nitrogen and some of the other fertilize fertilizers this year?

Aaron Lehman  We hope that would lead us in the right direction, but we also know when farmers are faced with difficult decisions, bottom line decisions, they they're not seen far beyond one year's time, and farmers know that single year decisions on a farm will eventually get you in trouble.

Paul Yeager  There's no long term planning. You're saying farmers plan.

Aaron Lehman  Unfortunately, you know, you make sacrifices on the long term in order to reach those short term real danger points, right? 

Paul Yeager  So you get the sense, well, I mean, you were talking about your oat field. That clearly is not a short term plan. That is soil health that you have tried to implement. And another farmers have been trying to do, on their part, is there enough out there, support from USDA and the other governmental agencies to help maybe convince another 100 200 acres a year in just your little area, right go into those programs?

Aaron Lehman  No, there's not, you know, farmers have been over subscribing for these services, meaning that the applications are in but there isn't money to fill all the good applications. And we're also concerned about the number of technical service people who help farmers put these things in place on the farm. The number of those folks are going down as well. So we know that because of those numbers, we know that farmers are willing to step in and step up in this situation, but the public partnership isn't there to meet the demand now, much less to get us where we need to be. We have some good goals in place in Iowa. What we haven't done is we haven't fully incentivized people to get to those goals. And to be honest, we're not paying enough attention to what progress we're making and so that we can make sure that what we do invest in these farmer public partnerships is actually providing a big bang for the buck, for the farmer, for our soil health, but also for clean water and healthy landscapes.

Paul Yeager  When you mention these partnerships, that was, that was something that was in vogue there for a while, but it there's, right now, a movement away from government money, Period End of sentence, to anything private.

Aaron Lehman  And that's that's unfortunate, because it's really clear. The research shows us that if we're going to get to our goals for clean water, for healthy landscapes, it is going to take a public farmer partnership, and cutting that partnership will lead to only worse decisions being made on the farm, but also for our state. You know, we're going to have very difficult decisions to make if we don't invest in this, in this partnership, that has to be a part of the solution.

Paul Yeager  Let's get back to partnerships, if we can, Aaron, because I think that is a political view right now. So with the one party in charge of a lot of things, federal and state, who's your conversation with to try to help talk about benefits for that that like you're speaking,

Aaron Lehman  You know, we're really excited. We've got a great group of Iowans going to visit our congressional offices in September, the largest group that we've had in a couple decades. And it's because it's a it's really a critical time right now. You know, we made some improvements. There's a lot of really controversial stuff that were hurt our rural communities in the in the big reconciliation bill, we did get some some inflation Reduction Act, money tied to conservation, which was made more permits and a bigger part of moving forward that was a game. We need to make sure that both monies that we are investing in the farmer public partnership make a real difference, and you can get to the farm, get to the pasture level, and make a real difference. So we're going to be lobbying for that. We still need a real farm bill that ties it all together? Which is we are almost two years, almost two complete. Years overdue at this point. 

Paul Yeager  That was something Secretary Rollins talked about Saturday at the Iowa State Fair was, well, the previous administration didn't get the farm bill done. We were able to put money into the big, beautiful bill that will help farmers in conservation. Is that going to be enough? Or do you still need that next farm bill? 

Aaron Lehman  We definitely need the next one. We definitely need the next farm bill. The food system is so intricate and tied together, right? We need a farm bill that provides direction for what we are providing for consumers and for our food insecure people, what we need for research and education for and that's on top of those updates that we need for crop insurance and the farm safety net to make it all work together. And unfortunately, if you don't have all those pieces working together, it starts to unwrap. And I think that's where we've been the past two years. We have not had the compromises needed to get enough people at the table and saying, We do it all together, we're going to be better off. 

Paul Yeager  I don't think you said it, but compromise almost sounds like a dirty word right now in Washington. I mean that there because there are those who say we were elected. There's a mandate. That is what. There is no reason for us to work with someone else. 

Aaron Lehman  Yeah, unfortunately, if you're dealing with something like agriculture and the Farm Bill, that's traditionally been the most bipartisan needs of legislation there is. And it only happens if you can all work together and. And the reason that has been important is because everybody needs it. Everybody needs a functioning food sustainability. So unfortunately, there's just no shortcuts to working together. It's hard work. It's a heavy lift, but we're ions. We're used to doing some heavy lifting after rolling up our sleeves getting the work done. And that's, you know, that's what I think we need our our Congressional legislation to do here in Iowa, we got, we've got four members of the ag committee from I, you know, two in the Senate, yeah, two in the house. And Iowa has a enormous role in agriculture across the country. We have the second highest number of sales and ag sales. We should be taking marine and finding a way to make this happen. And yes, it's heavy lifting. It means compromise. It means working together. But they're used to working hard and working together here in Iowa, it should happen.

Paul Yeager  Do you get the sense it's going to happen yet in 2025? 

Aaron Lehman  I think there's a path that it can happen, and again, it's going to take a lot of work, a lot of working together, a lot of compromising and finding common solutions.

Paul Yeager  Let's talk 2025 crop. You are in central Iowa, where rain has not been a challenge for you this year, to the point it's so much of now it's become a challenge to get work done because you've had so much what does that mean for you in your field?

Aaron Lehman  Yeah, you know, we have some corn fields in our area that are looking really strong. Some soybean feels looking really strong. We've been seeing a lot of people who are spraying, cultivating that type of thing, dragging a little mud onto the roads more than usual, because the windows to get stuff done has been really hard for people trying to put up pay to harvest their small grains, those diverse operations, it's been a real challenge. And the putting up quality small grains, putting up quality pace in a real time. And so what would you expect with the July that has record rainfall? You'd expect exactly that, but we've got some farmers who are under stress, but they are looking forward to what the pork crop is doing for them and what the soybeans are looking like, and trying to manage disease issues, and then like this

Paul Yeager  Yeah, disease pressure is has to be a concern. And talking with a couple of people to do applications on the side with their sprayers, or they've not been able to be in the field very much, and they're again, mud on the tires, like you just said, Yes. So you're going to the air to try to do things right, but you're also looking at the input side of if I'm below $4 does it pencil out? And then you have the other side that says, Well, how can you afford not to do something right? Now, 

Aaron Lehman  I know, but if you want to get into a conversation with a grumpy farmer, ask him about spending money on their cropping

Paul Yeager  that's never changed. Aaron, never.

Aaron Lehman  That's never changed. But yes, crop protection issues this time of year, with a year like this, it's foremost on all kind of those mines want to see a good crop get to the being in good shape, and we're not there yet.

Paul Yeager  Do you get the sense from membership, from friends, from neighbors, that well, we're just going to produce our way out of this. We're just going to put all these extra bushels into the bin we're going to hold and just hope for a better day?

Aaron Lehman  Yeah. You know, I think farmers are optimistic, right? And what makes them optimistic? Usually it's growing things and seeing a good crop, seeing healthy livestock that best really does make farmers optimistic. Most farmers, though, know their bottom line really well and opportunities to out produce a marketplace that end of all our ways is great, that's not a good long term strategy. So hopefully in a year, individual farmers could see some success by having a lot of production and but for a long term solution. We know that usually doesn't work out that way. 

Paul Yeager  Now, you mentioned livestock prices are, it seems all the time. I can't tell you how many times in a row I've said on the show now they're high. It has to be in now, right? Has to be okay. Tell me about the difference between high prices for those who are producing it, and the high prices for the product in the store, because at some point we always say the consumer is going to speak right, right?

Aaron Lehman  And where is that, and is there enough of a connection so that farmers are capturing the market adequately, right? And livestock farmers have to sell it to him. We. Very concentrated market. Polk, so getting those returned back to the farm is difficult. Good thing that we remind people, livestock farmers have had a number of really rough years. Yeah. So you talk to farm accountants, and they said you want to handle my, my, my clients are showing some income from their livestock, but they haven't spent any money upgrading or maintaining their equipment for years, and so they've got some kitchen up to do before they can really pocket a lot that help of those returns. So they're still, we're still working through a lot of issues. 

Paul Yeager  Yeah, do you get the sense people have been trying to expand, and it's been hard to get the banker to let them expand. 

Aaron Lehman  We've been hearing that, and you know, as the cost to expand has really risen, it's not an easy decision anymore. So yeah, all sorts of issues about what real opportunity there is to step in at this point.

Paul Yeager  What about the the option, or the discussion you mentioned, the concentration and the packer, and it seems like they are always in control, then you have the labor issue, because there's the whispers of, well, the reason the Packers been able to withstand it is they've had less labor because some of it has been sent back to home countries, and this has maybe worked out well for them. Are you hearing anything like that?

Aaron Lehman  To be honest, I'm hearing a lot of uncertainty on the later side. We know that in Iowa, we've had some of our our meat processing folks that have been, well, they're going to be have had to go home, and filling those positions is legit, and it puts a lot of strain on our rural communities. So valuing that diversity in our workforce is extremely

Paul Yeager  important for Iowa agriculture. 

Aaron Lehman  So I think there's a lot of uncertainty in the labor hand,

Paul Yeager  most uncertain to you in the rest of 2025 What's the thing that's going to keep you up at night?

Aaron Lehman  Well, I think the thing that is constantly or us is that extra chaos that farmers aren't used to dealing we're used to be dealing with chaos and weather and the unpredictability of a lot of agriculture. A lot of the extra chaos taking place is imposed from outside and really doesn't need to be there or to trade chaos in particular. So that really worries me. I already said the audit and notice, well, I have a lot of faith our farmers are going to be innovative. They're going to be smart. They can find ways to work together, but finding ways to do better with my trade. Here you're trying to see the farmer public partnerships, we can do a better job of getting tourist departments to withstand all this clearance. 

Paul Yeager  There was the discussion in the last general election about crisis for food, for eggs, for and it still gets talked about inflation on food. Is inflation still on the mind of people when they come to the fair and that you're going to be, you know, because I'm seeing farm fresh salsa. I mean, we talk about, I mean, one thing covid Talk to taught us was we all understood quickly how logistics and shipping works, yeah, and understand miles from farm to plate. That's right, has that been a something that the Iowa farmers union can you've been able to talk up and say, we make this here. You know the guy and gal and the family that's putting it together and putting it into your store.

Aaron Lehman  That's exactly right. You know, the better we can, the closer we can make our connections between farmers and their communities and the people who eat our food, the better off our entire food system will be and so that's part of our effort here, is to help promote that connection. So we know the public really craves me with who is coming from. They want to trust the service. We want to trust who's processing it for them and bringing it to their table and making that connection really weird between local farmer and consumer and and and our schools and our other community institutions. It's so important, and it really gives people broader understanding of what they're even the larger issues are in agriculture, if we can build those local conditions,

Paul Yeager  it's about local. It always, nothing has changed. It's still, Know Your Farmer, Know Your producer, whether it's you know, you think of those value added facilities that were the dairies that you know, they started selling their their milk locally, and you had some of the foundations. Therefore, that's right, okay. Lastly, if you could have a man. Message to the Secretary of Agriculture, the President right now, the governor, you talk about the lawmakers that you're going to have your your visit in September. What's the number one talking point, the things you need right now at farmers in Iowa?

Aaron Lehman  Well, investments in farmers make a real difference, and make a real difference in our in our fields, in our pastures, in our communities, makes a difference. It's healthy landscapes, including water. So those investments, both in resources and in people, make a real difference.

Paul Yeager: Aaron Lehman, good to see you. Unfortunately, I think you have to go back to work now. I think they've been looking at you going, at some point he's going to come back and take a shift, right?

Aaron Lehman: I actually think that they are thinking that the both of us are due to take a shift.

Paul Yeager: But have you been talking to my bosses again, Paul, at what point are you actually going to do something out there instead of just talk to people? I said I thought that's what I was supposed to do. That's what you're supposed to do today. So I appreciate you taking time. 

Aaron Lehman: We love the work you do. Thank you so much for what we do for agriculture.

Paul Yeager: Thank you. That's Aaron Lehman. He is president of the Iowa farmers union, and you have been watching the MTM podcast special. Thanks to the folks at Iowa PBS for mixing. Also want to thank Levi Yeager for camera operation today. Yes, it was a family deal, and if I don't give him credit now he can be embarrassed online again. Aaron, thank you. We'll see you next time here from the Iowa State. Excellent. Thank you. You.