The Golden Grain Cycle Commodity Market Analysis and the ETF Investment

[Yeager] I'm diving into something I never really thought I would get into. We're going to talk about ETFs. Crypto and commodities. Heck of a combo isn't it? You get guest pitches a lot. And this one? I was very curious to see how things are drawn together. And we're going to find out how there's a little bit of a connection and just the overall investing picture as a whole. Signs, signals, trends, buying dips. Who's paying attention to commodities? Hint it's not just those who are in the corn fields or in the soybean fields raising and growing it. Others are paying attention. Others are interested. And yes, we're going to talk about the word speculators. You love them. You hate them. We're going to talk about what they mean to the commodity markets. That's just part of the conversation. That's not the whole thing. Jake Hanley is with Teucrium, and he is based in Vermont, but he's spent time in Connecticut and, of course, New York and the East Coast. We're going to talk about why in an area that doesn't grow corn and beans and wheat. They're caring about corn, beans and wheat. And what's the perspective from that spot? So we're going to talk about the diversification in investment portfolios, liquidity and what that means to the markets. Government reports what's the gold standard and what does that mean for you. That's this installment of the MToM podcast. I'm Paul Yeager, glad to have you here. New episodes come out each and every Tuesday. Man, I feel like I'm shouting. I'm not. We'll have a conversation instead with Jake. Jake, Vermont in the fall. Is it as beautiful as I think it is?

[Jake Hanley] Oh, absolutely. If you've not been, please, please come up. It is the tourist season. We're just on the back end of it now. And so, living here, it gets busy. Imagine if you had a bunch of tourists coming in through harvest season just to watch those combines where you all are.

[Yeager] I think anybody who rolls through when it combines trying to go through town is considered tourist. And you're trying to move that big machine down the road. So I think we're very familiar with it. We did have a reporter come out years ago for a story about the maple syrup industry. We know that that is still a big thing there. And, what's. There's got to be more to Vermont than just maple syrup and tourism. Looking at the leaf peepers. Isn't that what they're called?

[Hanley] Yeah. Leaf peepers. Absolutely. Of course there is. You know, we have a large dairy, industry right here. Of course. And, you know, that is huge. It is the milk that goes into Ben and Jerry's ice cream. So we have just as many tourists coming up to see Ben and Jerry's ice cream as they do come to see the leaves. Which is wonderful. But, you know, Vermont also has great skiing. You know, our hockey program is trying to make a comeback at the university level. So, you know, if you like mountains and fresh air and lakes, this is a great place to be. Which is why I'm here.

[Yeager] And and you have a background, financials, Merrill Lynch. And now, Teucrium. I mean, what's the connection between the two?

[Hanley] Yeah, well, they both have to do with money. And so, you know, that's the easy connection. But, yeah, I came up as a financial advisor, helping clients, you know, build portfolios, helping mom and pop retire. And about ten years ago, had a bit of a shift in my life. My wife and I actually grew up in southeastern Connecticut. And when we had our first child, we decided to move up to Vermont and raise a family. And that was a lifestyle decision. And I ended up meeting my colleague, Springer Harris, who works at Teucrium. Met him socially, and he seemed like a really nice guy. And he brought me to his office and down here on the waterfront in Burlington, he was running a Bloomberg terminal trading corn futures, and I scratched my head. I said, who are you? What do you do? You know, and I was just fascinated. Always been fascinated by the markets. I hold the chartered Market technician designation. And, when Springer said they had an opening in the company, I took the opportunity to join, and threw myself into learning about the agricultural markets. You know, growing up in southeastern Connecticut, a lot of talk about stocks and bonds, but, a lot of talk about commodities.

[Yeager] Well, I guess there's not as many people do in corn futures in Connecticut as you would think, but I know that they are there. So what was the first lesson that you were taught? When it came to understanding corn futures?

[Hanley] Oh, boy. Like drinking out of a firehose. I had to get my series three, which is what you need to trade, you know, futures and commodities. And realized I wasn't as good as math as I thought I was. Is. I'm trying to calculate basis. You know, that was always fun doing the basis math. But really, my, you know, the founder of the firm here, Sal Gilbertie, he said, Jake, when you get into something you're learning for the first time, you pour it on your Cheerios in the morning. That's how, you know, involved. You got to be. And so I found some, you know, great programs, market to market. You folks have been wonderful from a learning experience. Pro Farmer has been a great resource. And Agritalk as well. I listen to talk radio. Those guys, Chip Flory.

[Yeager] Everybody has a Chip Flory story. Good job. Jake. Way to drop that one in there. Ted. Siefried will love that because he's a big guy there.

[Hanley] Yeah. Yeah. There you go. That's true. That's for that. That's good.

[Yeager] So corn futures. But there's a couple of things I want to unpack there. I mean, let's go back to the location. There's no I'm guessing there's not a ton of corn fields around where you are. It sounds like that other group of people who are interested in the corn market who aren't necessarily living and breathing it, growing it. Why are you important to the market? Why are you here, Jake?

[Hanley] Why? Why are you here? Why are we here? So this is a really interesting story. Stepping out into the realms of finance for a moment. There are these vehicles called exchange traded funds, which I'm seeing. You familiar with them? They're like a mutual fund for people that don't understand that. But they trade on an exchange, meaning you can buy and sell during the day. Well, in the early aughts, early 2000, ETFs, exchange traded funds started to focus on real assets and commodities. The very first oil ETF came to market. And so the nice thing about these ETFs is if you want exposure to futures, you don't necessarily have to open a futures trading account with an FCM. You can buy that exposure through your traditional brokerage account buying that ETF. And Sal Gilbertie, our founder, was a commercial energy trader. And actually he wrote the very first ethanol swap contract. So he was very interested in energy but also in agriculture. And he was looking at the world. And he said, well, hold on a second. You know, there's these energy ETFs. Oil and natural gas. We're in the market at the time. So there's nothing for corn, nothing for wheat, nothing for soybeans. And these are huge markets. And so he thought around 2009 that it was a good idea to launch agricultural ETFs. And so that's where we bridged the gap between Wall Street and agriculture areas, helping provide that exposure to investors through a simpler solution, be it an exchange traded product where you can purchase through your brokerage account.

[Yeager] How many people are interested in doing that? You don't have to give me the exact number. But I mean, are there people interested in it?

[Hanley] Not as much as we would like. And so, you know, just say that honestly, you're Sal Gilbertie, being in the commercial business just looking at the market, said they're absolutely huge. And he would admit to the fact that he did not see through to the retail level. And when I say retail, I'm talking about those folks that are sitting in the chair where I used to sit as a financial advisor, or even as a, you know, person who's trading your own account to say I want exposure to corn, wheat or soybeans and make that connection. Why? How does this help me retire? Potentially. Right. And so me coming from that world, I've been helping craft that story for folks to understand. Well, hey, hold on a second. When you look longer term, we can talk about that. Corn, wheat, soybeans. They have very low correlations to stocks and bonds. Their price has happened to zig when stocks or bonds zag, okay? And so there's some diversification benefits potentially to hold these assets in your portfolio longer term. And so that's, that's part of the story we've been telling.

[Yeager] And you're also dancing around the word it's also a hedge against those other bets, too.

[Hanley] It's a hedge against the other bets it happens to. Do. You know, historically, very well during periods of inflation. And you can see that obviously we can go back to the 70s and 80s, but most recently, of course, 2022, we were dealing with 9% plus CPI. And that calendar year was a time where both stocks and bonds were negative on the year. Commodities were positive. And, I probably bring up the year 2022 at this point. People are looking at those days wishing, wishing they were coming back, for our farm farm audience here. But, you know, that's the point that that we make to investors is hold on a second. You know, you're looking for the best rate return you can achieve to meet your objectives while taking the least amount of risk. And there's a few things that you can add to your portfolio that are more unique than agricultural commodities. Just the structure of the markets. You know, how there's seasonality involved. Of course, there's the, you know, production side, which is subsidized across the world. And so farmers all over the world plant every year. You know, there's some marginal, you know, are you going to play more corn to get a plant, more soybeans, but the crop gets in the ground. And so that adds a supply element relative to the demand element. That is always growing. Right. And I you have to point to the wisely report, that just shows that demand over the last 20 years is just unbelievable how demand for these commodities continues to grow.

[Yeager] You mentioned it's like a mutual fund. So then does that make you the funds? The funds are long. The funds are short. Is that you helping fill in who this funds is?

[Hanley] That's a great question Paul. So all of our single commodity agriculture ETFs exchange traded funds are long only okay. So we are never on the short side of the ledger. We are allowing the investor to choose when they want to be in and when they want to be out. So we actually don't give any advice, and we're not taking any speculative position on our own, betting that the price is going to go up or go down. But yes, technically we are in there, as the funds. But, you know, I like to think about it. So for, for example, right now, it's no secret, as we sit here on October 21st, there are some issues for soybean farmers, right? With finding storage, in China is not buying beans. Well, I talked to one group recently where they were putting the beans in the bin, but they were looking to sell the carry on the board. So they were selling the March and July soybean contracts. Well, our soybean ETF is long. The March contract March 2026 soybeans. And so if they're selling that farmer they're selling it to liquidity. That is in part, you know, from that soybean long position. Our ticker symbol is SOYB. So I swipe, swipe, and own the March 26th contract. And so to the extent that investors want that long exposure, these ETFs exist. And they do provide that, that, that long term hold.

[Yeager] You mentioned a couple of years and things change. What ebbs and flows people into these types of accounts that you're speaking to? I mean, we already kind of said the whole, you know, a hedge against something else, but is there another driver that gets people interested in commodities?

[Hanley] Yeah, I think so. I think what you have to look at is the history of these markets in general, traditionally reserved for sophisticated future traders. And when you're trading futures, it's usually you're trading momentum. And so what we've seen over the years is investors playing the momentum. So when prices are moving up, they'll, they'll get in and try to ride the wave higher. When prices are moving down, they're not afraid to get out either. And you know, if you think of grain commodities on a longer term basis. Not necessarily being a day trader. Right. But maybe looking at six, 12, 18 month time frame, so forth, you can think back to the corn chart. You know, maybe some of the farmers folks listening can picture a 17 year front month futures corn price chart. Right. There are these couple of peaks that really jump out to you, you know, most recently 21, 22. And then back in 11 and 12. And then you have this trough period, right? Basically between 2014 and 2020 where prices more or less move sideways. Okay. And what we've identified as you can look at this going back further than that, is this cycle where grain prices are going to trade at or near their cost of production for an extended period. We call that stage one. Stage two is when there's a production, problem or some other type of supply issue that puts a big bid under the markets. And so if you think back to corn, you know, 350 roughly might have been the average national average cost of production. Well, corn prices went from roughly 315 over seven, you know, twice in the last 17 years And so when you look at that, there is an opportunity in stage two to make money. Of course, stage three is when prices come back down, as farmers continue to plant and supply catches back up with demand. And so that's stage three. Prices come down. So we call that the golden grain cycle. Golden. Because if you understand it, you have the potential to profit from it. And using that framework, you know, it's pretty clear to us now that we are in the stage, one where we're, you know, bouncing at or near for soybean farmers, perhaps below the cost of production, which, you know, historically suggests that the downside is relatively limited, which, again, would say, hey, if you have more than, you know, a 6 to 18 month time frame for your investment portfolio now, might not be a bad time to consider agriculture.

[Yeager] Well, there's always the buying the dip and you just never know when it is. That's something we talk about. But, I want to go I want to examine this one, and, and I'm going to just make up for because isn't stage four kind of wouldn't it be more of a we're in a stage four of the inputs have just mean the input rising with cost to production and what the you know, what you can get for that product are so much higher because of other factors of trade and tariffs and things like that. And that might not be a natural cycle. So that's are we still in a want or we making up a new phase here for.

[Hanley] Yeah I think we're still in the one but it's multi-dimensional. So the the new one that level is higher than it used to be. Okay. So for for corn, instead of going back to a national average cost production of 350, we might be, you know, four, four and a quarter somewhere in that nature. And we see this if you go back to 2006, 2007, you know, the former cost production right around that $2 250 in that range. We had a big step up. And so I think what's your point out, Paul, is, is the multi-dimensional aspect of this, where the cost of production is not stagnant decade over decade. And here you go. Because the cost production is moving up that baseline, if you will, is also moving up and we have these charts on, on our website for anybody interested to look it up. It's under the golden grain cycle at two premium.com. So you can check that out.

[Yeager]  Sue Martin's getting really excited when you mention something like this. She loves a good phrase. The golden cycle there. But okay, again, Jake, your perspective of your history of your previous life, go back in your LinkedIn profile of, financials versus commodities. How complex are the two? I mean, agriculture gets this. Oh, it's simple. It's pretty much this. And then, just as you were saying, it's very complex. It's very much how does the average investor navigate these complexities that all of these offer is, is the commodities easier to understand than, say, understanding who's making chips or who's selling whatever widgets to drive my stock price higher?

[Hanley]  It's it's fascinating. Paul, I love that you brought this up. The way you phrase it is perfect. So we also have an ETF in the crypto space. And I'm only mentioning that okay. Because recently crypto prices have come down and money has been pouring into this crypto fund. Now, if you ask somebody to tell you what this fund does, I guarantee you they're not going to have any idea. They just know that it's crypto. It's a blockchain technology on a digital distribution ledger. Right. That's so maybe the future of money, right? Okay. What is wheat. It's in your bagel. Like. Yeah. Hello people. We prices are down but you're not buying the dip in wheat. And so you know do folks really understand the complexities of what they're investing in? The answer is no. There is always that crowded trade that is trading the headlines. It is going to be trading, you know, off the social media. You know, the acronym is FOMO. There's a fear of missing out on the next big thing, and is wheat the next big thing? No. You know, it's biblical. It's been around for thousands of years. But when you have the opportunity to sit down with a thoughtful allocator, which I, which I happen to have those opportunities often, you know, and that allocators an investment advisor who's looking at, strategically positioning their portfolio longer term, you know, those folks are going to take the time to learn about these, these markets. And they realized pretty quick it comes down to supply and demand. And when the governments open, we have this really great resource in the wise. The report that shows us that global supply and demand. Now if you want to get fancy, you can get, you know, your own analysis and so forth and pay up for that. But that free report is the gold standard and it's really not that complicated. And so, you know, that's a story that we try to provide the education and we do a lot of that through the website, newsletters and that sort of stuff. But it blows me away. More people seem to put their money where crypto is, as if they understand that. But, you know, not putting their money into wheat. It's interesting.

[Yeager]  I'm going to have to now share this with one of my coworkers. A couple of them are huge crypto people. They love them, okay. They're always I'm always getting texts of, did you see this? You should be buying this and this and this. They're looking at returns. They're looking at potentials in a way. Some of them are penny stocks. Because they have such they're so small, but they have this potential or I guess the new phrase post 2020 was, meme stocks. Is that what they could do? Right. Because they could just jump in, in ridiculousness in a matter of moments, and we just don't know why. Okay.

[Hanley]  Yeah.

[Yeager]  I mean, is there, does it make any sense right now on why people are interested in that?

[Hanley]  Yeah. Thank you. I appreciate that because obviously we have a fund out there for that. That ticker is XRP. It's for the XRP ripple coin. We wouldn't have issued that if we didn't believe in the space. And so while well, I can sit here and say to people understand crypto better than they understand wheat, I, I don't know, we try to educate the audience, you know, on, on all the things so that they're making informed decisions. It just strikes me that, you know, when somebody buys a dip in digital coins but doesn't buy the dip in food, you scratch your head a little bit.

[Yeager]  Right? I agree, but there's some people who are hesitant to buy a dip in commodities right now corn, soybean, wheat, because they feel there's more negative news coming. You mentioned China already. We're already looking at, ridiculous large crop. I'm not supposed to say it out loud that, yes, it's big. How big? It's different. I mean, that's people get ornery about when you start saying about things. But yeah, there's plenty, plenty of people who watch it, who grow it, who think I think there's lower times ahead. So they don't think this is the dip.

[Hanley]  Yeah. And that's very possible. And that's why, you know, we say if you have a longer term time frame, you know, call it 12 to 18 months or 6 to 18 months. From a portfolio allocation standpoint, what is your benefit to holding while prices move, let's say roughly sideways. And could you go down another 10%? Another 20%? Well, sure. But if you're managing a portfolio that's likely a rebalancing type of opportunity, right? You're going to rebalance your portfolio, go in and buy your dip through the, through the rebalance. And so that that whole idea is what you get now is those potential diversification benefits with the historical precedent, the prices typically shoot up and they shoot up pretty quick. And so for, you know, anybody in the farming economy, you might not have seen 2020 coming or 2021. But you know, by the way, in 2019 we had the flooding, you know, out in Iowa, of course. And we had, you know, corn prices prop up there. And so there's also potential 20% moves while you're moving roughly sideways. And you never know. So it gives you that chance to rebalance your portfolio, scrape gains when they come by, dips as they come as well, and then holding out for when there is a drought. And boy, I mean, looking at China, buying nearly every bean that Brazil has to export. That just says to me, look, when the rain shuts off the amount in Mato Grasso. What what does that mean for soybeans in the world still needs American beans.

[Yeager]  Or a conversation goes sideways between the two countries and then it throws the world's, I mean, that that's a fear I sometimes I'm not sure that's a whisper or a shout out loud is there's been no there's no reason to believe that Brazil and China are going to have an argument. But that's something that could happen and could change dramatically, fundamentally change the way we look at the market right now.

[Hanley]  Yeah. And it's hard when we're in the throes of a trade war with China, to imagine a world where China becomes our friend and starts buying every bean that we have to sell. Of course, we couldn't come near to meeting China's total bean demand the way that Brazil can. But you have to imagine that there are some buyers in China who get a little weak in the knees with a single source, you know, supplier. But that said, to Paul, you know, looking at the balance sheet from September to, there's another if you take China out of the picture and forget about Brazil, 74 million metric tons of soybean exports. Excuse me, soybean import demand. Right. The United States has 40 million metric tons plus somewhere in that range. And otherwise, what you have, you have Paraguay and Argentina, and, you know, I mean, they're producing beans, but I don't know where the world gets that additional 74 million metric tons. So, you know, the storyline right now, I think is accurate. Eventually that business has to make its way to the United States. It means that there's pain in the near term 100%. We saw what ADM did yesterday with their free, deferred pricing program. Right? I mean, these are things you don't typically see during the harvest. So there is near-term pain. Yes. But again, that 6 to 18 month window, the world is going to look different.

[Yeager]  Are those signals right now the world news is that is that the only signal we have on directions of markets.

[Hanley]  Yeah. I think your signals right now are the price charts. And the hope is that the price charts are more reflective of reality. Not as much speculation which could be the case simply given the absence of government reports. You know, some people might be sitting on the sidelines. And so who's actually trading these markets right now are the people who need the products right here, who are involved in the market. I don't know that that is the case. You know, speculators certainly can read the price chart just like anybody else. And so they might simply be focusing more on the prices now too. But I'm just looking at the buying chart, you know, today it's looking it's looking okay. You know, so, we'll see if that's actually reality. Maybe we can get these beans back up to that 1050 spot.

[Yeager]  Well, we had the words were written yesterday by a couple of the analysts that we have on our program that said harvest Low or we're trying to set a harvest low. I mean, that's always the speculation. I mean, here it is. What would we say the 21st of October seems a little early, but the crop was early and so maybe that means the low is early. I mean, those are weather signs, too, I guess that we're trying to watch,

[Hanley]  I don't yeah. And, you know, we it particularly is as it relates to corn, obviously there's a lot of issues that the farmers have been aware of and that people have been talking about for a while with southern rust and whatever other diseases we may have. You know, if the USDA puts out a November report, what's the likelihood that they're showing another reduction in yield there? You know, is that fundamentally bullish? I mean, we're still going to have a monster crop. Yes. But boy, I mean, if we could ever see that balance sheet get under 2 billion on the corn carryout, I think that would be helpful. How does that come in in January? Or do we have to wait until September 2026 to actually see you know, what this year's crop was? You know, I don't know, but I, I do think it creates an interesting trading dynamic when the reports do start coming back out. Because if there is bullish news or bearish news, is it hey, we haven't had any news. So we're going to sell the news I you know I'm not sure. So I would be wary of that. Watching prices move up higher lack with the lack of data. Be careful that prices move might move back lower even with bullish fundamental data later on.

[Yeager]  It's hard to make sense. We've had a couple people try to say, this is what happened when we had a 28 day shutdown, because that's what it looks like we're headed towards, because by the time this comes out, we may or may not still be in a shutdown. We don't know. But that's the part of commodities in general. We don't know. That's what makes it a speculative game. We know we have a good crop or we know we don't have, but we don't know what everybody else has right now. So, I mean, that's part of our best guess. And they just put the shoulders up. Right?

[Hanley]  Our best guess. Take that. The price is what the price is regardless if it should be or not. So you know if you're, you're paying attention and all this stuff. But you have grain to sell. Just have your pricing plan, your marketing plan in place and, and watch the board because that's what you got.

[Yeager]  Let's go back real quick to the beginning. Talking about Vermont, New York, Connecticut and the people that are interested. I mean, help me understand on Wall Street, when I see traders, you're much closer to it. I'm sure you probably know people that have done it. How much do they pay attention to? The rain in Iowa, the rust in Indiana?

[Yeager]  The drought in Ohio. I mean, what's just an overall factor of what? They're paying attention. I know you can't speak to everybody, but fill in some color for me in a photo.

[Hanley]  So I'm going to break this down into two, two camps. One is the retail investor who would potentially buy one of our ETFs in their brokerage account. That person is probably getting most of their information through our newsletter and things that we put out, because we are the only shop that I'm aware of that has an interest in telling the story about American agriculture. We have products to sell corn, wheat, soybeans, you know, great ticker symbols, by the way, I put in the sales plug, corn, ticker CRM. And so we have an invested we have a vested interest in telling the story. We do keep it higher level. The golden grain cycle supply demand was the fundamentals. That's one camp okay. And those folks will be interested when we write about the weather, let's say, okay, it's raining or not. The other camp, when you think about, New York and Connecticut and Wall Street are the hedge funds. And, you know, we were down at the Greenwich Economic Forum, a couple of weeks ago, you know, and Ray Dalio is a big speaker there, and we're in the hedge fund capital of America, basically. And I will tell you, there are firms who are very quiet. You would never know who they are. They pay a lot of money for advanced data and information that goes beyond what we're writing about. And those are the true spec commodity trading houses, that are in the markets every day. And so that that audience exists. It's not typically our audience, but there are, you know, people with whom we rub elbows, in that world.

[Yeager]  Why are they important?

[Hanley]  They are speculators. They're adding liquidity to the market, you know, and and you can get upset when you look at the, Scott reports and you're seeing some of these long, somebody's short, you know, these are the traders who are who are laying into those positions and, you know, the funds when you look at the funds, those are really the ones to think of, you know, to create. And you can we're very transparent. Go to our website. You can see the value of the dollar amount in our long only funds any given day. But these hedge fund speculators, these are the funds that are, in the market, you know, moving things or moving things. I, there's a big traders, but that liquidity is helpful, you know, that liquidity is helpful. And, you know, that's the role they play.

[Yeager]  Because I'll get notes from farmers who are just like, I get them speculators out. And then the responses, yes, but they're the ones helping drive up the price.

[Hanley]  And drive up the price and sometimes drive down the price. And depending where you sit in the farm economy, either one of those things is going to help you. More than not, you know, at a different time in place. And so it's, it's really about the liquidity that they, that they add a buyer and seller on the other side. You know, if there's just the farmer in the commercial, well, you know, you're going to be complaining about the farmer or the commercial, right? Here's a third player that comes in and in the best case of the free market world, with all the information available to everybody, they're helping keep the market true, right. They're helping bring the fundamental reality to the market. Now they are going to lean heavy one way or another to play the trend. And you have these things called blow off tops. And, you know, the bottom falls out and all these things. And there's never, quote, the perfect price, but the price is always what it is. And it's the benefit of the liquidity is that that third party in their,

[Yeager]  And it gives us a little bit of understanding and guidance of what's maybe happening at this exact moment when there isn't a government to be issuing reports.

[Hanley]  One 100%. And there been times where I've seen futures, we prices spike up and go, what the heck was that all about? And then I get the report the next day that while there was big drought report coming out of Russia. Well, I didn't have that information, you know, on my desk. But prices reacted to it, you know, so oftentimes the markets are going to move before the narrative catches up. And that narrative is usually what moves the market just among the people who are paying for the information.

[Yeager]  And to take that another step further is then there's those who think we don't need the government reports, period. We can rely on private estimates or weather reports or private companies. But then it goes back to the very beginning of what you had talked about, why that information was created, why USDA was created, was to help the farmer have the information that goes away. We don't have I don't know, I don't know if balance is the right word, but it's at least a factor.

[Hanley]  Yeah. I, you know, without a gold standard in the wisely report, for example, I think you have a lot more volatility in these, in these markets. And the opportunity for, for bad actors to do, to do things that they otherwise can't do when everybody can see the WASDE report. And that's, that is a good thing about having, having the USDA data, 100% of the weekly export sales. You know, this is, it is there for a reason, and it's there for a good reason. One of those reasons, by the way, is so that Russia doesn't have a, you know, Great Train Robbery 2.0. Right.

[Yeager]  So you are familiar with the show. You are familiar with Sue Martin when she talks about this, then you've got it, Jake.

[Hanley]  Well, a great I mean, what a wonderful period of history to learn from Holy cow. But yeah. So no, it's it's very important.

[Yeager]  Would we ever get a signal that that's happening again?

[Hanley]  Well, if everybody's playing by the rules, it should be very improbable that that could ever happen again. Yeah. I can't see how it would be. That would be possible within an open government. Yeah. And all the reporting mechanisms we have in place. Yeah, they absolutely do. And I would say for those that are local, too, you know, I just looked at something, some information we have on on financial advisors in the greater Des Moines area, the top 20 investment advisors are managing $123 billion. Okay, so this is in Des Moines, 1% of that $1.23 billion allocated to soybeans. That adds liquidity to the soybean market. Right. And so, you know, leave it to folks, make their own decision if they want to be long. But, if China is not buying American soybeans, you know, we have the opportunity to, to do that, and add liquidity in that market. So folks like the farmer, I was talking about the selling the July, excuse me, selling the March contract, has that liquidity. So it's a big world out there. There's a lot of money. 

[Yeager] Thank you. 

[Hanley] Pleasure. Thank you.

[Yeager] Our production team is led by Sean Ingrassia, David Feingold, Reid Denker, Neil Kyer, Kevin Rivers, Julie Knutson. As always, thank you for making this podcast possible. Our executive producer of Market to Market is David Miller. I'm Paul Yeager. We'll see you next time. Bye bye.