Market to Market - July 17, 2026

[Paul Yeager]  Coming up on Market to Market - Coming up on Market to Market, heat domes, wildfires, and random rains blanket the grain belt. Who will care for the herd? A look at the rural veterinarian shortage and commodity market analysis with Naomi Blohm next.

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[Announcer] This is the Friday, July 17 edition of Market to Market, the weekly journal of rural America. 

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Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Philip Leeds of Alta, Iowa, in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programing.

Market to market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

This is the. Friday, July 17th edition of Market to Market, the weekly journal of Rural America.

[Paul Yeager] Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. The summer sales season and lower gas prices helped reduce the stickiness of inflation last month. The producer Price index, or the wholesale inflation rate, fell from May to June by 3/10 of a percent. This is the measure of prices before they reach consumers. Keeping that consumer in mind, the CPI dropped 4/10 of a percent last month, meaning less money was spent on items at the store. Retail sales added 2/10 of a percent in June, according to the Commerce Department. This data will now be parsed by the Federal Reserve as the board decides their next move on interest rates. Weather can influence the winter shopping habits, with cold and snow this week, the heat and wildfires cause their own headlines. The air quality in Minneapolis on Thursday was the worst in the country. As a haze of wildfire smoke hung in the air. Peter Tubbs has our weather wrap.

[Peter Tubbs] Heavy rains slashed across southern Texas and resulted in flash flooding over a wide area. Many roads were washed out in counties near the Mexican border and two people died.

Toby Guerrero, Uvalde, Texas Resident: "I've been here since 2000, 25 years and never seen anything like it. I've seen it before elsewhere but not here. It's pretty amazing."

The Nueces River basin saw flooding only a year after hundreds died in a similar flash flood. 

Camryn Sanford, Local business owner: “I'm nervous for the people in the area where their homes are potentially gonna be flooded. I feel like we had, like there was very little warning. We knew a flood was coming, but we didn't know it was gonna be to this magnitude. 

The storms also caused street flooding in northwest Louisiana. Dozens of cars were caught in the high water.

Canadian wildfires have made for hazy conditions in major cities adding to already uncomfortable dew points.

The heat dome has made for record high temperatures and increased humidity levels across much of the country, but it has not been warm enough to slow the growth of corn and soybeans.

Eric Hunt, University of Nebraska Extension: “The good news this week is a lot of places have been dropping more at night than expected — lows haven't been optimal, but they haven't been terrible. Mid-to-upper 60s is a lot better than mid-to-upper 70s. We've seen more of that heat pushed further north. We've had some warmer days, but that larger diurnal range isn't terrible for corn as long as you have moisture — you don't want highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 70s for two weeks straight, because that combination really increases respiration.”

Nearly two-thirds of the country remains in some kind of drought. The recent rains have helped reduce dry conditions across the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest while the High Plains and Mountain West continue to suffer. The National Weather Service is predicting wetter than normal weather across much of the nation. Near normal temps are expected in the Plains with cooler conditions from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. 

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.

[Yeager] State legislatures across the country are offering incentives to get doctors to rural areas through scholarships, loan replacement programs, and some licensing changes. This also applies to veterinarians. They too are in high demand in areas where animals, big and small, are in need of care. The problem isn't new, with stress on wider areas of service. At a time when disease, pressure and preventative care are primary to the animal industry. Laurel Bauer looks at the challenges and efforts to attract talent to all locations. This is our cover story.

For generations, veterinarians have answered the call when farmers and ranchers needed help with their animals. Today, a growing shortage of veterinarians is leaving animal health care in rural America at risk.  

Dr. Laura Molgaard, Dean, University of Minnesota College of Vet Medicine – “People really worry about the veterinary workforce shortage from a number of angles. Sometimes they have to wait longer to get into a veterinarian, or to have a veterinarian come out of their facility. Sometimes it’s about lack of access for certain kinds of procedures, like emergency after hours care. Some communities have lost that.”

[Laurel Bower] According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a record shortage of veterinarians in 243 areas have now been identified across 46 states, with the highest concentration in the Midwest and West. The list of disciplines in need is a long one and includes rural mixed-animal practices, food-animal and livestock medicine, USDA and public health veterinarians, and some positions in animal rescue shelters. 

Experts say the shortage is driven by several factors including the surge in pet ownership during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising educational debt, professional burnout, and a growing divide between urban and rural practice opportunities.

Dr. Dan Grooms, Dean, Iowa State University College of Vet Medicine - ”Today, I think veterinarians are thinking a little bit differently about their work life balance. They’re thinking about taking time off, taking time off for their families, taking time off for personal time.”

[Bower] Dr. Jessica Fox is an associate veterinarian in western Minnesota.

Dr. Jessica Fox, Marshall, Minnesota - “And you think about the life stage that most people are when they get in veterinarian school, that’s when you’re starting to meet your partner and build your family and you start doing that during that time in your life and you’re in the metro. So, even if you had ideas of moving back home, maybe your partner doesn’t want to.”

Since World War II, the United States has lost an estimated 90% of its large-animal veterinary workforce, creating concerns about animal health security.

Dr. Jennifer Quammen, President, American Veterinary Medical Association - “Having veterinarians as the primary health care authority is very important to all of us, not only in our small bubble of our farm, our ranch, but also more locally in our country and even more globally it’s an impact. And, there’s a giant economic impact there as well.”

Dr. Jaye Hamby, United States Department of Agriculture – “Fewer than 4% of those veterinarians that were graduating were looking to enter a practice predominately large animal focused, so as you can see, if you have nearly 96% of veterinarians out there that are looking to go in another sector like the companion animal space, say urban or suburban areas, that’s a real issue..” 

Veterinary school often leaves students with debt in the six digits. Urban companion animal clinics frequently offer higher salaries.  

Dr. Randy Wheeler, Executive Director, Iowa Veterinary Medical Association  – “Small animal, you’re going to make 30% more. If you’re a large animal or mixed animal veterinarian, let’s say at 100,000 dollars starting, the small animal would be, the companion animal would be around 125 - 130,000.” 

[Bower] In addition to higher salaries, more predictable schedules, and fewer overnight emergency calls are also more appealing to new graduates. 

Dr. Shawn Nicholson, Stuart, Iowa - “ I was thinking about long term, you know, how can we generate more of a sustainable business and have more help especially for that on-cal. We definitely get calls at all hours of night, but it’s only one night a week and one weekend a month essentially, so it’s not bad when you share the load.”

Dr. Jessica Fox, Marshall, Minnesota  - “The vet that I grew up working with that is what finally got him out of rural area was that not being able to find a relief veterinarian 24/7, 365, never getting a break for years, and years, and years.” 

As demand continues to grow, experts say investing in the next generation of veterinarians is an investment in the future of American agriculture. 

Dr. Shawn Nicholson, Stuart, IA – “We have a lot of students that come down for the whole summer and, and actually work for us. We hire them. We have some that are on an internship. And, and then, their senior year, we have more formal preceptorships that are referred to as where they come here and spend time with us. And then they get college credit for that.” 

Dr. Madison Durflinger, Stuart, Iowa - “One fantastic thing from that Dr. Shawn does is he’s really good at incorporating students and everyone into working back here whether it’s with cattle or horse, you know he’s very open minded, very good at explaining both the veterinary side, but also the handling aspect.”

[Bower] The agricultural sector knows the veterinary workforce won’t be rebuilt quickly. 

Dr. Dan Grooms, Dean, Iowa State University College of Vet Medicine - “There is no magic bullet for this problem, okay. There’s no one simple solution that will solve the problem. It’s going to take a concerted effort by colleges of veterinary medicine, by state departments of agriculture, by local communities, a variety of different other groups that are going to have to all come together. Each of them probably have a little piece of the solution.” 

[Bower] Industry leaders warn that without enough veterinarians, the ripple effects will extend far beyond farms and ranches. A strong veterinary workforce is essential to supporting agricultural communities and securing the future of rural America. 

Dr. Laura Molgaard, Dean, University of Minnesota College of Vet Medicine - “The same communities that are struggling to recruit or retain a veterinarian are also struggling to retain nurses, pharmacists, dentists, physicians and that’s something bigger than any one profession. Rural economic development is bigger than veterinary medicine.”

For Market to Market, I’m Laurel Bower.

[Announcer] Next, the Market to Market report.

[Yeager] The closure of the Kerch Strait provided a boost to the grains for the trading week ending July 17th. The nearby wheat contract gained $0.43 and the September corn contract added a nickel. The bullish crush number and China's lack of buying were on the minds of traders in the soy complex. The August soybean contract increased $0.13, while August meal fell $0.20. December cotton lost $2.91 per hundredweight. August Class three milk futures improved $1.13. The livestock market was mixed. August cattle sold off for a 15th consecutive day and closed down for the week by $10.77. August feeders cut eight. 65 in the August Lean hog contract gained two. 65 in the currency markets, U.S. Dollar index fell by 15 ticks. August. Crude oil gained 11. 34 per barrel. Comex gold was off by 96. 40 per ounce and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index added more than 33 points to settle at 6.7305. Here now to lend us her insight on these and other trends is regular market analyst Naomi Blohm. Hello. 

[Blohm] Hello. 

[Yeager]I'm not great at math, I admit, but even I can add almost $0.83 in two weeks on wheat. A lot of that came towards the end before the straight story in Russia. Ukraine. What's allowed that story to continue into this week?

[Blohm] It has been the continuation of the attacks on the ships in new parts of of the Black Sea region. And so that's just created a potential fear of getting the wheat out of the country. So the wheat is there. We don't have a wheat shortage in the Black Sea region. The wheat is there. It's just, is it going to be able to be exported? And Russia is looking at different ways to potentially export it out of the region. And so that uncertainty is what allowed for the wheat rally this past week. You know, along with some slightly lower production levels starting to kind of, you know, whisper up around the world. So the wheat story is supportive. And then next week, we're going to be looking at, to see is, is there any new additional news to justify prices to break through the highs from this week, which matched the highs from earlier in the year? So it's going to be interesting to see how next week falls. We'll either see wheat blasting higher, another 50 to $0.60 or having a very simple recovery reprieve and go lower 50 or $0.60.

[Yeager] Well, you kind of answered what I was thinking about. So opportunity is here right now to take advantage of this price, given the volatility that could be coming.

[Blohm] Yes, absolutely. And I think there's been a lot of wheat producers who have been able to take advantage of this cash sale. I know where we're harvesting wheat in Wisconsin, right? In my neighborhood, there's been a lot of folks who have been able to capitalize on this opportunity right at harvest. It's been a really big blessing for Wisconsin farmers. And again, like I said next week, it just depends on drama in the Black Sea. Potential escalations in the Middle East and what the fund traders want to do. Are they going to start to exit more of those short positions. And that could push prices higher. Or like I said, are we going to see the market have a pullback lower seasonally for the wheat market. Chicago wheat Kansas wheat. And we'll get to soybeans and corn later. July 19th is when there is a pullback lower for prices. That has a tendency for the five year and 15 year seasonal to be about a two week pullback.

[Yeager] And I listen closely when you say that because you also talked about the Mother's Day peak. And that is held up until here this week. But I want to discuss pulling along. Another commodity. Is that what wheat did to corn. Is that the biggest driver for the corn market on the old crop side?

[Blohm] Yeah, absolutely. I think if wheat had not rallied, corn would have had trouble getting much higher than where it is September corn right up against 450 resistance. December corn at 475 resistance. The 100 day moving average, a big target for corn on daily charts. So corn of course, you know, we knew the dry weather was was here this week and the high temperatures. A lot of producers though had just enough rain going into this week where they said, you know what, my crop still looks good in spite of the heat. So next week with the cooldown that's coming and the central Midwest expected to get rains, it will be interesting to see what the, is of the crop that's out there, the Western Corn Belt. Of course, still staying on the drier side, there's no doubt about it. But for the most part, the crop looks pretty darn good out there. And like I said about the wheat, seasonally, corn has a tendency to fall a little bit lower. The last two weeks of July, unless there's some major outside market influence.

[Yeager] It's what I was talking about with Ted last week. We were counter seasonal because we. How many times do you hear, oh, I got to empty these bins in July and this price is not good and it's very hot. These two things just make life miserable, which ties into our question a little bit. You've kind of answered it already. This one is a combo platter, so I want to thank David, Glenn, Phil, Dan all for asking how much drought in Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, Europe, South Africa or South America, Australia matter to the market?

[Blohm] Well, let's actually go back to May, the last time I was on the show and we said that was probably a significant spring high in prices would go lower. And then on that show, I said, I'm really friendly for 2027. And so all of the little details are starting to occur to give us something exciting for 2027, because we have just enough lower corn production in Europe. Now, with the drought here in the United States, depending on how this yield ends up, we may have lower production or just sufficient production, and we'll want to be watching, of course, what's happening around the world, because now that global ending stocks of corn are finally trending lower, it sets us up for something substantial down the road. And right now, the world is waiting to see what the United States farmers are going to be able to do. I think the 183 yield right now is appropriate. I have most of my clients saying that the crop looks just fine, and in a week or two, we'll get some of those early satellite images and they'll give us a yield number. But it's going to take a yield less than 180 in the United States to get this corn market to rally in the short term.

[Yeager] Okay. I've been saving this one, but I thought we'd maybe do it in. Plus, I think we need to discuss it. Okay. The color of the crop in so many areas. You referenced it this morning in some of your commentary about just how good some things look. How does a producer take last week's news and not get too excited? But yet other news of realistically, there is a lot of good opportunity for a very high yield number. How does one position themselves for the next few weeks?

[Blohm] Yeah. So if you have old crop, I feel this would be a great opportunity to be making some sales just because there still is a lot of old crop corn that has to come to town. The old crop story in and of itself is not friendly. The new crop story could become quite friendly, but maybe not until mid to late August when we have a truly a better handle on what the yield is or isn't. So my thought would be, if you're making any cash sales right now, if we see a pullback here like we normally do, only three out of 20 years has December corn rallied throughout the entire month of July. Only three out of 20. So if we see a pullback then in August when we find a harvest though, you're going to want to look at some ownership strategies. Vice versa. If you are on the camp of this market's going to go higher, then I would suggest maybe some short term puts just in case. You know, if there's no drama in the Black Sea this weekend, if there are, there's not any further escalations in in the Middle East. And if the rain comes in the forecast next week, well, that would really put a nice seasonal play to see that pullback lowering prices. We're at this this crossroads here. And it's it's it's all going to be whatever happens over this weekend and what the weather forecast is Sunday night.

[Yeager] Much more in corn than it is in beans. Those influences.

[Blohm] I think so. So soybeans are still under the influence of good demand in the United States. The notebook crush was amazing this week. Finally, China coming in and buying. They bought over a million metric tons. So they're just starting that 25 million metric tons that they're going to be doing. But China also likes to buy on sale. And so I think they're probably waiting for a little bit more of a pullback before they get into their next round of buying. And you know, the global ending stocks for soybeans are big. So it's a little bit of a different story where I think soybeans are a little bit more of the follower. Wheat and corn could be tied in first place as leaders.

[Yeager] So that probably puts an impact then on that new crop outlook for beans, if you're talking about because that's the carryout is a different story there.

[Blohm] Yeah. So new crop beans have resistance at $12 on the November futures. We're kind of essentially at a double top from the May highs. So it's corn and soybeans and wheat and even crude oil all at major resistance levels heading into the weekend. And then again, it's whatever happens this weekend is going to decide if the all four of those markets can push through resistance and work higher, or if we get that seasonal pullback to the downside.

[Yeager] In the dairy market, talk to a couple people this week about their outlook. It's more on the animal side. But let's talk about the production side in class three.

[Blohm] So milk production still huge. So that is the overall negative aspect of the marketplace right now. And that is what had been weighing on prices. But class three milk futures rallied over a dollar in seven business days because the market had been oversold. And we had some decent spot cheese cash, cheese news this week. And so that allowed for a marketplace to work higher. But similar to the crude oil and the grain markets, the milk market got right up to the 100 day moving average. I'm like, how many times can I say that today, the 100 day moving average. But that's, that's a big technical resistance line for the market. And so next week we have a milk production report out on Wednesday. And that's going to be what we're watching as far as are we still seeing this glut of production in the dairy complex or not. Demand has been, of course, you know, decent, but we have so much milk production and that's just weighing on prices.

[Yeager] Again, I'm not good with math, but in the live cattle market, I mentioned 15 straight days of sell offs. On June 22nd. The high was somewhere around 2.50. We're around 225 in a four week period. Is this, the truly the beginning of the fall off in this market?

[Blohm] I'm not sure. It's quite frankly the answer because the underlying market fundamentals continue to be supportive. The last time we got to these price areas in early June, the market turned around and had that correction higher. So I'm wondering if we start to see an uptick in cash trade next week. That's what we're watching. Cash was lower for the last two weeks. So that's part of the reason why the futures market went down. And now that the glut of the Fourth of July holiday has been met, do we look forward to new types of demand? So we'll be watching that. I think it's interesting, though, that now that we're doing this new tariff thing on Brazil, with the 25% tariff, beef is not on that list. So that means that we could still easily import.

[Yeager] Easily, bring some in quickly on feeders retention. Is this the signal now to maybe start retaining that.

[Blohm] That's a good question. That's kind of something that we're keeping an eye on out for. As far as like feeder prices. It's mirror image of what live cattle futures are doing. What I'm curious to see was the fund action this week. Did they exit some of those long positions in live cattle and feeder cattle or not? But the opposite was true for the hog market. Finally, on the up and up. And I think the new slogan campaign taste what pork can do is the is hitting the consumer. And that hog market has had a nice rally for a good month.

[Yeager] Are we thinking that's consumer driven now?

[Blohm] I think it's it's the rally is because the funds are exiting short positions, but the consumer is pivoting to cheaper pork. And and we're seeing it substantially. And also with the protein craze happening with the country, you know, people are needing more protein, wanting more protein, looking for different sources of protein. So I do think you're going to see a little bit of an uptick for, for the pork complex. It's really, it's kind of nice for them.

[Yeager] I have just a couple of seconds, $82 was the crude oil closed today? Is that also tied to its future with what you had just said about all the impacting corn, specifically global story?

[Blohm] Yeah. Global story. We're going to see what's happening with the Middle East over the weekend. If things simmer down over there, crude oil then would not have a reason to rally much further. And we'll see a pullback next week.

[Yeager] And we will see you in just a few minutes for Market Plus. Thank you very much. Naomi Blohm. Great to see you. And that is what we've just done. We call that the market analysis of our program. In a moment we're going to continue this discussion in an online only segment. You can find it by searching Market Plus with Naomi Blohm. That's BLOHM. Wherever you get your podcasts. You can also go to our website at markettomarket.org to listen. We enjoy your commodity questions and commentary. Our inbox is always open. It's also available. We like to have a note from you, send your comments, your emails to Market to Market at Iowa PBS.org. Next week. The challenges facing the livestock industry in times of high prices. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

[MUSIC] 

[Announcer] Market to market is a production of Iowa PBS, which is solely responsible for its content.

[Announcer] Market to Market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

[Announcer] Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Phillip Leitz of Alta, Iowa in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programming.

[MUSIC]

[Announcer] (Pioneer) I wouldn't be here without my customers.

[Announcer] Yeah, I'd like to thank the customers. They're. They're very dear to our hearts.

[Announcer] It's about the people that you're working with and the relationships that you have.

[Announcer] Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[Announcer] Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

MUSIC]

[Announcer]  Tomorrow, for over 100 years, we've worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust in tomorrow. Information is available from a Grinnell Mutual agent today.

Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.