A Mixed Economic Outlook

While fourth quarter GDP recorded surprising growth, economic data suggests this is an economy that lacks direction.

The Mid-America Business Conditions Index found that tariffs have reduced the value of goods being imported into Mid-America states, but retaliatory tariffs by trading partners has also reduced the value of goods being exported by the states in the survey.

Tariffs on imported goods are paid by importers and American consumers. 

The Mid-America Business Conditions Index remains below growth neutral for the fourth time in the past five months despite climbing 2 points to 49.6.

With GDP growth driven by huge investments in IT, AI and data center buildouts, the rest of the economy is lagging.

 Ernie Goss, Creighton University: “Hiring was not good. We are hiring index for the employment gauge was at 47.2. Now that was up from December's 44.0 but still not good. It's still below growth neutral for ten straight months that has been below growth neutral. The national number likewise is we're mimicking the national number, which has also been below growth neutral for most of 2025. The theme here is we're creating output GDP but we're not creating a lot of jobs.”

Additionally, a predicted $4 billion dollar drop in 2026 net farm income from 2025 is limiting the economic outlook for many parts of rural America.

For Market to Market, I’m Peter Tubbs.