Beans in the Teens and Stock Rot Worries As Harvest Begins

[PAUL YEAGER] Welcome to the table for the. Friday, October 2nd, 2026 installment of Market Plus. Joining us now in sunny midtown Johnston, Sue Martin. I have to throw the weather in. It has been so rainy for the month. We talked about the harvest delays. We're seeing pictures emerge of sprouts on corn here in about this color change in beans. The obvious screaming question that I get over and over again, whether it's in texts or messages, why is the market not responding to this weather, Sue? Why?

[SUE MARTIN] Well, I think for one thing, while we were getting a lot of this weather, we had President Xi come to Washington, D.C., and also the trade reps with him. And I think there was such disappointment that, yes, they did a Board of trade. Fine. What does it entail? Does it entail being transparent? Evidently not. And so, I think the market's frustrated with politics right now. And I think that weighed on the market because our focus was so much on those meetings. And then we weren't getting they said well, President Trump said, you're going to love it or farmers are going to love it. You know, and maybe that's a long term view. But in the meantime, tell us what they're doing. And then Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says, well, $4 billion of that 17 billion has been spent. Tell us what on. Give us the particulars. Don't be evasive. And I think the market is disillusioned a little bit right now with what's been going on. And then also with the weather, you know, still saying, okay, the forecast said it's going to get better in October. And sure enough, it's trying to for the first half of October anyway, it's to be better. So now it's let's see what's in those fields. And I think there could be some surprises in these fields.

[YEAGER] You sound like Jerry Maguire right now. Say, show me the money. You're saying show me the details. Show me the receipts of the bushels. Show me the details everywhere. Right now, that's what it sounds like. The market and Sue Martin want to see. Yes, absolutely. Okay. You know what I want to see is an answer to a couple of these questions. You okay with a couple of these? And we'll get to the bullishness of Sue in a minute. So, let's start with if we could. Boyce in North Dakota. Do you think this long term uptrend in soybeans can continue to hold?

[MARTIN] I think it does. First, though, we may pull back as far as 1248 on November. Beans or something like that. And then I think we come out of here and we do move. And I wouldn't be surprised yet to see $16 beans by April. I think there's a lot of potential in this bean market. In fact, if we were to even just gander at the next year, I wouldn't underestimate the double tops could come out and you've got double tops in corn, double tops and beans and even in wheat. I think those could come out.

[YEAGER] Which one of those three are you the most bullish on right now?

[MARTIN] Probably wheat, but also with wheat comes corn. I do think there is a on a daily continuous chart there's a gap actually that goes from or excuse me. Six. Let me try this again. I've got beans on the brain up from 5.93 and a half to 6 or 4 and a half. And I think the market will strive to try to go to that. And then we'll see what what's happening. Because if you get issues, see right now you've got Argentina processing and crushing beans almost. It's been a long time since they've had that kind of ability to crush like they are. And so, they're making money. And also the weather. El Nino doesn't sound like it's going to really impact Argentina. So, we have to keep in mind they could be number two exporter in the world. They buy between Brazil and them for that. And I think this next year they will be number two exporter in the world.

[YEAGER] Let's stick in South America for a minute. El Nino is the story in North America right now in South America is where we could see this story develop. Is the bean market not saying, show me all the details, but keeping an eye on it? And what could or could not do, seeing what it did in North America.

[MARTIN] Well, I think so. And I want to step one, step back the carryout in the beans being 300 million bushels, 313 million bushels, that's pretty low and much lower than many were thinking. The average guess the USDA and even stone X, and that carryout could be interesting because if you get into these fields and all of a sudden as we start to warm up and dry out, these pods pop, you could be losing some yield on the ground.

[YEAGER] Hadn't thought of it in that context.

[MARTIN] Well, and then the next thing is even on corn, we catch a wind. I wonder how much stock rot we have out in the countryside. In our area, there's stock rot. But it's standing. As long as we don't get a wind. But if we catch wind with the nicer, warmer, drier weather, we could be in trouble. I think it's expected that the bean crop will be your better crop. Of the two. And yes, I really think yields are down on corn in some areas. I'm hearing 20 to 30 bushels to the acre. The beans could be the surprise. Maybe we get out there. So far, everything I hear on beans pretty much has been wonderful. Yields. I've heard a few disappointments, but not many. But once they start to really get in the fields after these past rains we've had, it'll be interesting to hear. And the farmers are going to be going very strong this next week to start into beans, and they aren't coming out till they're done.

[YEAGER] I don't remember numbers like you do. I have to cheat. And right. Stone came out with estimates on corn this week. 1821 and for beans 50 541. That's right. So, we'll get a better idea next Friday on a couple of these numbers and other numbers you talked about in the main program. So, I guess that kind of leads us. Let's do Tim in Iowa to come out of that setup of a question that says, are we near a bottom in corn with harvest starting? What do you think is a realistic corn upside? That could be by spring? And I want you to also fold into that stone ax and USDA estimate that's coming.

[MARTIN] Well, first off, the stone ax estimate on 182, one on corn. I think it's still a little high. And I think the USDA will even down set back a little bit more on their yield, especially because we just aren't hearing good yields hardly anywhere. And of course, granted, there isn't a lot of it done yet. So, you know, it's been states like Tennessee and Kentucky and out of the Delta that's been giving us our better yields, so to speak. But I have to say, I think that when I look at corn, I could see corn pulling back to 474, 78, right in through there. I don't think it goes much more than that. It was interesting because a year ago we stuck a low right in around the 1st of October and then rallied into the seventh and then fell back and did a double bottom. Then we moved out and moved higher. We don't have to do everything the same, but I do think that this corn market does have the potential. And remember, while what will be interesting to see is as we keep opening the border and bringing cattle across, what's going to be interesting to see is do the exports to Mexico continue to be just as rampant as they've been.

[YEAGER] For corn?

[MARTIN] Yes.

[YEAGER] For corn you're saying? 

[MARTIN] Yes.

[YEAGER] So, we're going to get to the livestock in a moment. So, I just want to say, Joel, in Minnesota, Phil, in Ontario, they kind of answered she kind of answered both of your questions about getting back. So, let's go to livestock if we could, on that live cattle market. You talk about the Mexico, the border reopening. We're a month into that now. Have we seen any impact yet on either country? We're still seeing Mexico buying corn.

[MARTIN] Yes. I don't think we really have. My understanding is that a fair percentage of the cattle that are coming across are not good, not good quality. And I think that, you know, then you maybe have to feed them more corn, you know, to get them. But I don't think we've seen near the impact yet on the feeder market for that. I think it's going to take Texas getting open. And I think that's where when Texas starts to open up, it's going to be interesting to see just how well that plays into the demand for corn into Mexico.

[YEAGER] Three years ago, if you would have said 221, you'd have jumped through the moon. But now we look at it as a down this market live cattle specifically has had so many tops and so many. Well, maybe this is the trend. Is there still one good run left?

[MARTIN] Well, I think so. I still I've been bordering the fence thinking we might have still one step back and look at these lows and maybe take them out. Not majorly, but take them out today or this week. We ended up closing lower on cattle, both fats and feeders, after having made higher highs. Of course, the past ten days has been very schizophrenic. Up one day, down the next back up. I mean, very choppy, very congested. And of course, I would have to say that if we come in on Monday and the market now deviates from that and sets down and breaks back, now you're going to probably be changing that pattern. And all of a sudden maybe we're looking at the gap that's under this market. Is it a breakaway gap? It might not be.

[YEAGER] One question about gaps. Could be gaps lower. And that would be Jim and North Iowa's question to you, Sue. Kind of a little bit. We kind of talked about the energy side of items. If energy dropped to one year ago levels, would we have $2 corn?

[MARTIN] No, no. We have to keep in mind that the corn market, you know, look at this. Last year we came off of a year where we had much greater in acres, very large acres. And then this year on the new crop, we had less acres and tighter supply. So, as we start to get past this harvest and we're thinking about fertilizer and what have you, I think producers are going to be thinking costs, you know, input costs and what have you. But I also think we're going to have a fight for the acres. And I think that starts right after we get done with harvest. And we start in. And that doesn't usually happen with a price going down.

[YEAGER] Are you willing to go out there and think that we're going to increase Wheat Acres next year?

[MARTIN] Well, they say we weren't, but I think we will. Conditions in the US are actually very good for winter wheat. I mean, we've got soft red wheat and hard red wheat, beautiful moisture for those crops. Yes. They've got to dry up a little bit. But I'm wondering if we couldn't possibly see a little bit of an expansion in acres in in wheat.

[YEAGER] We'll see how it all shakes out. Sue, great to see you as always. Thank you so very much for the time. 

[MARTIN] Thank you. 

[YEAGER] Sue Martin everybody. And that's going to do it here for Market Plus next week on the TV show we're going to talk about from farm to tray that's getting locally grown food into school. Lunchrooms. And we're going to have double analysis. Naomi Blohm. Ted Seifried will join us here. Thank you for joining us here on Market Plus. Have a great week.

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