$5 Corn Could Be Just a Speed Bump – Market Analysis with Don Roose

[Kohlsdorf] A wet weather forecast. A neutral USDA report, and late week profit taking pushed the markets lower for the trading week ending July 24th. The nearby wheat contract lost a nickel and the September corn contract added $0.20. The weather, both dry and wet, along with renewed Chinese buying, helped push the soy complex higher. The September soybean contract added $0.47 and September meal increased $13.70 per ton. December cotton gained $1.35 per hundredweight. August class three milk futures fell $0.46. The livestock market ended the week on a high note. October cattle put on $1.80. September feeders rose $2.10 and the October Lean Hog contract gained $1 eight. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index added 71 ticks. September crude oil gained $7.10 per barrel. Comex gold found $51.50 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index added more than 39 points to settle at 71299. And here now to lend us his insight on these and other trends is regular market analyst Don Rose. Good to have you again, Don.

[Don Roose] Good to be back.

[Kohlsdorf] Thanks for being here. So we saw a lot of storylines this week in agriculture. There were a lot of them. Which one was most influential on the grain markets?

[Roose] Well, I tell you, that's one thing. There's a number of things. And I think from a highlight standpoint, that's what's pushing the market up. So into new highs. And we made new contract highs on soybeans at the end because we have a we were in a dry drought pattern in Europe. We were in a dry drought pattern here in the U.S. And our temperatures warm. You know, keep cooling and warming. And, you know, we're in a dry drought pattern starting to set up here. Also going forward with the heat. Then we have the Russian Ukraine war, and then we have the Iran U.S. War. So it's adding it's one thing after another. And, you know, I haven't seen this for a number of years where we don't just have one. We have a number of things. Brooke.

[Kohlsdorf] Yeah, it has been so with wheat. Wheat was leading the way. What was the thing pushing wheat this week?

[Roose] Well, you know, I think the biggest thing on the wheat is, you know, of course, we had a dry drought pattern going on continuing in Europe. And it looks like that's going to continue for at least another ten days. And Europe, as total, all the countries that are the largest wheat producer exporter in the world. So a big issue over there. Then we had the Russian Ukraine war continues to heat up. So I think it's that combination is pushing us to the upside. And then of course, you can't say enough about it's an El Nino year. And going forward we could have some problems with some of these other countries. Australia is supposed to go into a drier pattern. So adding premium to these markets we did at the end of the week, Brooke, we had a hook reversal, a key reversal, if you will, on wheat, a little bit of a warning sign. But we were extremely overbought. So it's reasonable.

[Kohlsdorf] With all of that said, then will we see wheat go higher?

[Roose] Well, you know, I think when you look at it, you're at some pretty lofty levels up here. At the same time, when you're in contract highs, we did have that little reversal on Friday. I think it's reasonable to say that we probably hold this value. Let's see what the weather does going forward. I always say, brick, this is more like a card game. It's how the cards come out, and then you'll be a little bit smarter as they come out. But you know, right now a lot of bullish cards coming out with the things we just talked about. And I think you have to anticipate as long as these trends are up, you get these setbacks. But they're probably ones that find some good support.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay. Was corn just following Wheat's lead this week?

[Roose] Well, I think when you look at the corn market, number one, you know, go back to these weather problems, dry drought condition in Europe, Europe as a whole raises about 2.3 billion bushels of corn. They import 800 million. So I think with their dry drought, we probably have a chance for our imports to go up. And then I think when you look at the growing conditions here in the US, we've had some real heat coming at us again next week in some of these key areas. I mean, the heat is really from Texas all the way to South Dakota. Temperatures spike into the high 90s, low 100 seconds. So I think it's one of those that we don't know the size of the crop yet. Look, Monday, I think we're going to see this time of year. What I always tell people is look at how things are going week by week. Is the crop getting bigger or smaller. So look at the crop ratings on Monday and see if they go down. That's a sign that we're getting smaller. And typically, you know that tries to ratch us to the upside. And you got to be a little bit careful, Brooke, with these markets right now. Because seasonally this is the time of year. This last week was when you put in a top and we drop into the fall. That's typically that happens about 85% of the time. But if you get into a contra seasonal, which we could be in, it's a very dicey situation. Everything is just the opposite. You crops get smaller and you ending stocks get smaller and you go higher into the fall. So we're right at a critical point. We'll see going forward.

[Kohlsdorf] No, a little more maybe next week or in two weeks. So my next question kind of plays in well to what you just said, Phil, in Ontario is wondering December corn is within striking distance of $5 with crops burning up in the Western Europe and grain movement compromised in the sea, along with higher oil prices. How much corn should farmers have contracted? Or will $5 be a speed bump on the road ahead? That's a long question, but what do you say?

[Roose] Yeah, it is it's a it's a good question, actually, because I think this is a year like we haven't seen for a long time. Typically. Remember last year we went down into the the fall. We never had a decent rally the year before. We topped out in February. But I think this is a year from a farmer standpoint that I think a person can give himself a chance to see if we're in a contra seasonal market. And by that, I mean we're at some places where producers can rather lock in tight prices. You can do some things with some of these creative options to lock in a price. And that's what we're seeing people do. And then given the upside, because there's a lot of unknowns going forward, it looks like to us that the crops getting smaller in the U.S., you know, we got hurt early in the year with too much rain in the east now, too much heat in the far west. The middle of the corn Belt is probably okay. So I would be not so aggressive and wait and see how these cards come out. Brooke.

[Kohlsdorf] What about beans? Are we going to see prices in the teens?

[Roose] Well, the one thing about the soybean market, it can run pretty fast. And we're in contract high. So you have to be very careful when you get a market that's in contract highs. And it's running to the upside. And there again, you know August is a month for soybeans. And sometimes we forget the real heat that is coming at us. We were too wet. Like we said early in the Eastern Corn Belt. Now in the far west we're going to be too hot. It looks like at a critical time frame, we forget North Dakota is the fourth largest soybean producer, acre wise in the in the nation in South Dakota is about number six. So you've got this Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, a lot of beans out there. That's going to be a critical time for. In fact, we forget North Dakota, South Dakota, acre wise is larger than Ohio. Indiana. That's a big switch. So I guess I answer your question squarely. Let's see how far we run to the upside. But China's underneath the market buying soybeans also.

[Kohlsdorf] Yeah. Let's talk about China. How much did China's buying this past week play into corn soybean prices?

[Roose] Well, if you really look at it, the Chinese were kind of slow buyers this week. But it looks like we have the late September meeting between Trump and XI. And we expect they're probably going to pick up the pace buying soybeans they need to buy about 37 million bushels a week. So there's some big buying. They've been slow so far. So that means they've got a lot of buying to do going forward. So you know and we're getting very competitive you know with South America right now. And back to an El Nino. It's an El Nino year. And in the strongest El Nino in 75 years is the forecast. And an El Nino year. Brazil is supposed to be dry. So they between Brazil and Argentina they produced twice as many soybeans as the U.S.. So. Big card out there that we don't know. But certainly I think it's. Sellers beware. At the same time.

[Kohlsdorf] What about the. Let's move on to cattle. It was the cattle on feed report was out today. Did you see anything in it that interested you?

[Roose] Well, the placement figures were down about 3%. So, you know, I don't think a little bit supportive for some of those deferred months on out, five months out. So maybe a little bit supportive there. Cattle inventory report, semi cattle inventory report was also out. It showed calves slightly under a year ago. So a little bit positive there. Probably the standout on it was actually the cold storage report. And it had beef down about 11% versus a year ago. Of course we know things are tight on the supply, but it had pork up 39%. So big pork supplies trying to work through those and tight cattle supplies, beef supplies.

[Kohlsdorf] With pork. Is that a consumer driven story? I mean, are people turning more to pork now instead of beef because it continues to be so high?

[Roose] Well, you know, that's a good question. In fact, actually, that's been the big problem. We have not seen the consumer he's been willing to pay up for the high priced beef at the expense of both pork and chicken. But the last week and a half, two weeks, I think there's been a real switch where the consumers started to pick up his buying pace a little bit on the pork, back and away for a little bit from the cattle. But that's a seasonal situation also, because usually demand on beef slows down during the summer just because of it's hot burger, hot dog and hamburger time frame, cheaper cuts this year, not so much, but I think late in the season, particularly when it got hot, we started to see some of those consumer changes.

[Kohlsdorf] Okay, I want to talk a little bit about crude oil too, because we saw it spike again this week. It hasn't been this high in a couple of months. So do you think it's going to go higher like higher higher in the coming weeks.

[Roose] Well well one thing about it, I think it's concerning because it looks like we don't have the US Iran war anywhere as close to being solved, at least from what it looks like today. Of course, that can change very, very fast. But yeah, I think it's one of those that you need something to change out here before. And is it going to so and it's a real question for the producer, because part of the reason the producer is not so aggressive on selling the crops, if he isn't, is because he's not sure what his not only diesel price, but also what's going to happen to fertilizer prices going forward. So I would say that crude oil is very and energies are very, very overbought, but there's still no signs that we've got any kind of a top again, in the market.

[Kohlsdorf] Yeah. And that fertilizer story is certainly something that we'll be paying attention to in the next few months. We can probably talk a little more about that in Market Plus. Don. Thank you. 

[Roose] It's been a pleasure. All right. Well, you've been watching the analysis portion of our program, and in a moment, we'll continue our discussion in an online only segment. You can find it by searching Market Plus with Don Roose wherever you get your podcasts. You can also go to our website of Markettomarket.org to listen. Don and I covered a lot of ground today, and if you want to go over everything again, just subscribe to our YouTube channel. Be sure to click notifications so you'll know when we've posted the show, our stories and podcasts next week. Surviving a record smashing fire on the Great Plains. Thanks so much for watching and have a great week.

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