Market Analysis with Dan Hueber

This is the Friday, January 23, 2026 version of the Market Analysis segment from Market to Market. 

Depending on when you are watching this, you are either in the middle or past the first great winter storm of 2026. Snow, freezing rain and cold are the trifecta this cycle.

Trade ahead of the storm prompted wheat watchers to see what the system would do to the crop which was already getting a boost late week in the form of export sales. 

For the week ending January 23… 

The nearby wheat contract gained 12 cents and the March corn contract added 6 cents. 

Bean oil helped buoy the soy complex.

The March soybean contract improved a dime cents, while March meal put on $9.90 per ton.

March cotton contracted by 82 cents per hundredweight. 

Over in the dairy parlor, February Class Three milk futures added 24 cents.

The livestock market was higher. April cattle gained $1.83. March feeders put on $3.73 and the April  lean hog contract improved by 98 cents. 

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell by 163 ticks. 

March crude oil expanded $1.44 per barrel. 

COMEX gold strengthened by $402.20 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up by more than 8 points to settle at 573 - 15.

Here now, to lend us his insight on these and other trends is regular market analyst, Dan Hueber. 

Hello, sir.

Dan Hueber: Hello. How are you?

Yeager: You know, this week was a different week.

Hueber: Okay.

Yeager: In responding to folks like you or it was different more for you than it was for me. Maybe less angry calls this week.

Hueber: Oh, I don't know if there was any angry, maybe not the word. There was depressed calls. Maybe the week before, after the Wasde report, the previous Monday. But you know, here we are a little over a week beyond that week and a half beyond that. And prices have largely stabilized. And of course, you know, closing up for the week means we've kind of taken those numbers, absorbed them into the price structure, and even rallied a bit. Now, can we sustain that for a very long. You know, that's maybe a whole 'nother question, but at least it's saying that the world didn't quite come to an end with that report.

Yeager: And there were improvements that were consistent with last week. I mean, we still actually put on a couple of things. It's just the middle of the week that was the problem. Monday was the, you know, the way we report things Monday to Monday or Friday to Friday here, different from the rest of the world. Correct? Correct. So given that it's behind us. Sure. Is it truly behind us?

Hueber: Well, it's going to hang over us for a while until we get something new to talk about. And realistically, you know, we probably got several weeks ahead of us before there is something new to talk about. Yes, well, we'll discuss acreage and grain stocks and those type of things, but we really don't start getting updates on that until February, when the USDA has the annual symposium. They'll do some baseline numbers at that time. Then, of course, at the end of March, the actual prospective planning numbers. So the market shift will probably move a little bit from, you know, we're looking at these bigger supplies than we really anticipated 2 or 3 weeks ago to well, what are we going to look at for acreage in this coming year? And yeah, right now, for all intents and purposes, we'll probably lose some corn acreage. Maybe maybe gain some of that back in soybeans, maybe some of that even in rice or something. But at the same token, it's, you know, there's just really not a lot to stimulate markets at this point in time.

Yeager: So the weather's trying to help the wheat market right now?

Hueber: Oh, well, you know, realistically, how many winters do we not try to kill that wheat crop 2 or 3 times? So it's, I wouldn't say this is out of the ordinary, but you know, chances are it creates some damage. And, you know, we don't have any excess acreage in wheat out there. So it's not like we can lose a lot. But here again, is far, far too early to say just how much we're going to damage to.

Yeager: But this is going to be a theme and it has been a theme. We are in a trend here for the last six weeks or a range more or less correct. Not necessarily a trend, but a range. Why is that?

Hueber: Well, I think we're at value. You know, when you look on the what's going on with the world trade right now and granted, a great, great boost in the export sales here this last week. Now, if that's anything more than a one hit wonder, it's a little difficult to say at this point in time. But we're you know, we're competitive in the world. The dollar deteriorating probably as a nice little bonus for us at this point as far as maybe stimulating some extra business. You know, some of it just could be, you know, the available supplies here right now. We're going to lock it up while we can until we see what South America really comes up with supplies. So it's yeah, I wouldn't call it a long term thing, but, you know, you take all the help you can get at this point.

Yeager: You just answered my question because I was gonna say we're $0.30 off the highs. I'm guessing we're holding. And you just said we're holding. Let's go to corn, because that was the big headline of last week. But then there's been some I don't know if you want to call them Tuesday morning or beyond quarterbacks say, well, it wasn't that big of a surprise because of this, this and this. What did you take away?

Hueber: Well, the, you know, of course, part of it came from increasing last year's supply that bumped that carryout number up there, you know, not not shocking of the overall number. I thought the most stunning part was that they did bump up carryout as much as they did. I think the trade was really looking for us to kind of edge back below that 2 billion bushel mark. Instead, we got pushed up to 2.3, I believe, right in that neck of the woods. So, you know, psychologically that just really kind of takes any major concern out of the corn market. Now, granted, yes, we have a lot of growing season in front of us. You know, we could be down 2 to 3 million acres. So you know that that puts some kind of a value, at least on the bottom side. But really when you look at what happened post report, you know, we had the big crash down in that Monday and we've just gone nowhere since. So all right. You know, maybe there's some value buyers in there, but there's very little reason to really stimulate it much above this current level either.

Yeager: But we weren't going anywhere before the report either. We were stuck in a range.

Hueber: True true, just a little larger range. But, you know, $0.15 higher than we stand today. So no, you know, and again, when you say six weeks, it's really more like five months. You know, this corn market has really been quite stagnant. It's just we're stagnant at slightly lower levels here at this point in time.

Yeager: But what did this export news mean most to that came out before Friday?

Hueber: Well, you know, the corn was really the most surprising number of the bunch. 4 million metric tons. You know, a lot of it to unknown destinations. So it would be interesting to see where that happens to go. But you know, they were looking for a good number. Still looking for over 2 million metric tons. So you had over double that. So that was a nice, pleasant surprise. The soybean number was certainly strong but expected. So it was the grains that really had the best play here on those from those figures this week.

Yeager: Given what we've gone through in 2026 and in the past, December, corn specifically, are you hearing folks are just saying I'm taking advantage of what I can now, or they're locking it up and holding. What are you hearing?

Hueber: I think a lot of people are sitting tight at this point in time. For as much as anything, we're not that far off of the month of February when you set your crop insurance price. Once we have that price set, then I think people will start devising a little more solid marketing plans.

Yeager: All right, well, let's discuss maybe some other help that could come. And it came in the form of a question. Scott in Iowa, who's a good friend of the show on social media, if you haven't followed him, he's a lot of fun to see. And he's been working hard. And thank you, everybody who's working in these cold conditions this weekend, he says, is our only hope, a Hail Mary to get an improvement in corn and soybean prices.

Hueber: Yes.

Yeager: And what would that Hail Mary look like?

Hueber: Hail Mary's going to have to be weather. So I mean, it's going to have to be something that, you know, demand, even though we're going to see spurts here and there of increases in demand. You know, we're not going to change the picture dramatically. So it's going to have to be on some possibly, on reduced acreage, although I think the major impetus would be a weather issue, if that happens to come about, you know, and that's something it's difficult to count on. Now, all that said, usually you'll get your seasonal low in this late January February period. You know, the traditional February low. And then we'll try to build some kind of risk premium as we move into the spring months to give a little incentive there to get the planters rolling again.

Yeager: But we hibernate a little bit, is what you're kind of saying.

Hueber: To a certain extent.

Yeager: Certainly, yeah. Let's talk beans specifically. Now again, export numbers. Let's start with that. Continue with that number not as high as the corn number, but still positive and above expectations.

Hueber: Still a good number. Yeah. I mean and again it's not that we haven't seen those kind of numbers. That was a marketing year high. So the best we've seen since really since September 1st. So China is again a strong buyer. But you know we're at that period. You've already got South American Harbor started. You know probably three 4% completed at this time. So you're within a few weeks of having Brazilian beans back onto the world market. You know, we're filling in that in-between space. Of course, China is also trying to live up to the obligations of what they said they would purchase, which they now have done. And unless there's some really great financial incentives to do, do do more, they've probably just about tapped out to the man they're going to come for at this point in time.

Yeager: You mentioned a few minutes ago about soybean acres. As we look to the November contract, is there really going to be that much of a change, or is everybody's decision made? And how much of that can play into our action here moving forward?

Hueber: You know, and it's hard it's difficult to think about any kind of a major increase in acreage on either corn or soybean, corn. Like I say, I think we're probably pretty well assured it's going to back off. The only reason it would switch over to beans, of course, would be the fact that it's a lot cheaper to produce a crop of soybeans than it is to produce an acre of corn. So you might see some switch over that way, but I think we're going to have to look particularly in the southern states. You know, maybe there's going to be an alternative crop. Maybe we're looking at sorghum, maybe we're going to look at rice in the South that could be an alternative this year.

Yeager: Or is it cotton.

Hueber: Or is it. Well, maybe cotton's possibility, but cotton certainly doesn't have a bright picture at this point in time either. So it's not like those people are cheering about the profitability. They're looking at.

Yeager: Cotton has been in this trend that every time we look at it, it seems to be going down. There was a bright spot early in the week and tried to rally.

Hueber: But here again, by the end of the week, it pretty much taken all that back. So it's sitting down towards what has been the lows over the last year or so. Like I say once again, it's just none of these have a great picture. And unfortunately when you look at the overall cycle in commodities, you know, we're probably 4 to 5 years yet before we're out of the woods. And when you look at those turnarounds, they always happen because you've developed a new demand engine that has really taken you away from the norm, you know, right at this point in time, it's pretty difficult to think or envision what that demand engine is going to be.

Yeager: So has the demand bug left the live cattle market?

Hueber: Well, I think it's been tempered, you know, certainly it's you know, granted, we've had some maneuvers by the the government to try to get a little more beef into the country, which, you know, not that it's collapsed by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it takes the top end of it off. Good response back here today. But it's really just kind of teetering on the edge of falling over. And I think if we see any more slack in demand, we could probably see the cattle market start to start to work its way back lower again.

Yeager: And we mentioned the weather story. That is something that may or may not play out, depending the severity of snow is one thing, cold is another. When it hits the cattle regions. certainly stronger there. So we'll see how that one shakes out. Let's talk about cattle on feed numbers that came out just before we started to roll here. Dan, the ones that came out today, I think it was 98% on feed 95, placed 102 fed cattle, marketed. What number stood out to you?

Hueber: You know, none of them very far off of estimates marketed. 1 or 2 is exactly what the trade was looking for. Both the on feed and the placements were a percent higher than estimates. But here again too, it's well within the ranges. So I wouldn't say that's going to have any major impact on Monday on these markets.

Yeager: What is going to have a major impact on the feeder cattle market?

Hueber: Well, I guess, good question. At this point whether it will still be a play. I mean, we'll probably see what kind of reports we get of the storm damages and what kind of issues they have on the pasture conditions. But boy, outside of that, it's going to be just what we get in this retail move.

Yeager: It's like the feeder and the cattle market to an extent have both kind of stayed in that range that the grains have been doing here lately. Is there a reason?

Hueber: Although at the other end of the spectrum, of course, we're at the upper side. So but I think it's yeah, we've reached a point of no return, but a point where if you push any higher, how much farther are you going to start choking off demand, particularly when you have other competitive meats? Other than the poultry side, at this point, hogs have had a pretty respectable rally here over the last 3 to 4 months. So you know that that's equalizing things out a little bit. But still beef is, I mean, Americans love beef, but there's a certain point where, you know, we're going to back off buying it or they're going to back off buying it, I should say, if we can find a better competitive meat out there.

Yeager: And what else is going on in the hog market this week?

Hueber: You know, outside of that, I guess there's not much news. We did push to the upside once again, pretty much a seasonal move. I mean this is a typical move coming out of the fall months. When you look out into the summer months, you're actually already pushing up into what is pretty good resistance level. So I not that it doesn't look fairly positive at this point, but to make it extend much further than it has might be a challenge.

Yeager: All right. Well, we'll challenge you with you. A couple of questions and Market Plus. How about that?

Hueber: Oh, that sounds great.

Yeager: All right. Dan Hueber everyone, thank you so very much for your time. 

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