Market Analysis with Dan Hueber

[Yeager] Dry conditions influence on the trade yielded to forecasts of rain late week for the week ending April 24th. The nearby wheat contract added $0.18 and the July corn contract gained $0.06. Beans continued their double-sided trade in the soy complex. The July soybean contract fell a nickel, while July meal was off $8.10 on the week. July cotton shrank by $0.48 per hundredweight. May class three milk futures added $0.57. The livestock market was lower as June cattle cut 227. August feeders declined 415 and the June lean hog contract, weakened by $1.78. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar index put on 62 ticks. June crude oil added 15%, or $12.32 per barrel. Comex gold fell 146 $0.50 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up by more than three points to settle at 73112. Here now to lend us his insight on these and other trends as regular market analyst Dan Huber. Hello, sir.

[Dan Hueber] Hello. How are you?

[Yeager] Wonderful.

[Hueber] Very good.

[Yeager] Let's talk wheat. Okay. Because it's a bright spot. A couple of reasons. What are the two for you that are the biggest?

[Hueber] Well, of course, reduced acreage once again. But then the dry weather and the southern plains that has stimulated so. And truly, it's the only market out there that has a weather story at this point in time. You know how long that continues on? We shall see. But it you know, it has been the bright spot in the in the grain soy sector here really since the first of the year. But, you know, most specifically over the last couple of weeks here, so.

[Yeager] Well, there's some who think it hasn't responded enough, including those of you who submitted questions. So, let's start, if we could, with Roger in Nebraska, who's in that area where this is an everyday question. When will the Board of Trade finally pay attention to the severe drought in the southeast and middle sections of this country?

[Hueber] You know, and again, one, I would say we have paid attention. Granted, it's not a wild type of situation, but, you know, keep it in perspective as well that, you know, we're not looking at any kind of a tightness necessarily in wheat. Yes, yes. The hard red maybe could be a little a little tighter situation. But when you look at wheat as a whole, globally, domestically, you know, we're not looking at a cringe situation. So now do I is there a possibility we could see Kansas City wheat maybe pushed to the $7 mark? You know, I think that's a real threat. If we don't see the weather change here in the near term. But here again to wheat is available. In fact, I read today that we were importing some wheat at this point because worldwide wheat is significantly cheaper than domestic wheat. So, you know, that's going to be that tempering effect that keeps caps on markets.

[Yeager] Is this a time for action?

[Hueber] Oh I think so. You know I think you know again we'll I know we'll cover more than wheat here. But absolutely I think you know, all supply markets, all supply rallies, I should say, tend to be short lived by nature because they are driven by weather, by a one-off type of situation. And if you don't reward them, you know, you tend to regret it later. So yes, I think you anything from here on up, you want to be rewarding.

[Yeager] So, all right, so that's wheat. How about let's talk old crop corn. Is there a reward to be had here?

[Hueber] Well, we've had a little bit of a bounce the last couple of weeks. Pretty anemic. You know corn demand has not really been bad. We continue to post pretty respectable export sales. But you know that said if we don't do it now, when are we going to do it. So, it's yes, old crop corn. It's going to be difficult to think we're going to get carried away if we can make it up, we've in the last week retraced about half of what we lost since the March peak. We may able to maybe could extend it just a bit more than here, but I think it's going to be a challenge to, to really take that much higher without getting concerns about what's going on with the new crop.

[Yeager] Well, we're getting ready to we're putting in that new crop. Correct. We're a little distracted with that. We're watching the weather. Sure. So, what is it going to take as a headline on that old crop to maybe pry some more of this loose?

[Hueber] Well, I think we'd probably have to see the rains really continue and push planning further back to where we start talking about losing acreage. You know, there is again, the whole war in Iran situation has, as we painfully know, in the farm sector, really boosted not only fuel prices, but of course, fertilizer prices. You know, I think the market's trying to factor that in right now. Do we need to be building in a risk premium if people use less fertilizer, are we going to be able to maintain trendline yields? Those kind of questions. Nobody can provide the actual answer to that. Of course, at this point in time. But that said, I think that is the one the one point you could look at and say, well, there's potential for that. So.

[Yeager] Well, it's interesting you say it on the old crop side, because there's a thought that it's going, Iran's going to be more of an influence on the new crop side.

[Hueber] Sure. Well, but I mean, I once that does happen, people will tend to grab what they can. I see, you know, so yeah, not that it's going to be the driving force taking old crop higher. But if you really get concerns about the new crop that we may not have as many bushels available there, people will tend to do a little hoarding, you know, maybe buy some stocks right now to make sure I have inventory for later on.

[Yeager] Are we to the point yet where we have seen acres change because of fertilizer, fertilizer situations?

[Hueber] I, you know, certainly a possibility, you know, and again, I have not really heard much discussion of that just yet. And of course, you know, again, unless somebody is forced to change, you know, a lot of seed is booked probably, you know, hopefully a lot of fertilizer has been booked. But if not, I think it's going to be pushing it right to the end before you see a change. And again, I think it's probably going to be more weather related than price related at this point, particularly when you consider that the soybean prices are not exactly stellar or at least the action, the soybean market is not exactly stellar at this point.

[Yeager] Well, the action's been, I think what you called earlier this week very much. It's been range. We've been stuck at three five-day average not breaking out. Except yesterday we did break out lower.

[Hueber] Right -- not all the way out of the range. But I think it's kind of taking you to the edge saying that, boy, if we don't come back with a better bull story, or if the story really starts, we turn into rally that yes, it looks like we're going to see more bean acres on the ground. Boy, it would be tough to hold soybeans, at least at current levels. Demand wise, boy, it's not existent here at this point. You know, China bought their initial rounds after the first of the year. You know, certainly our March shipments to China were better than a year ago, but they still weren't good, you know, so it's we're quite a ways behind the eight ball and that's why we market.

[Yeager] Oh. And then that South America situation too. They keep growing. Lots of grain. Is that are they as big as I mean they're almost done with this first crop. Soybean harvest is almost complete. So that means any premium or challenge is likely out of the market too.

[Hueber] Oh, certainly. Yeah. I mean, and again, it will only be a transportation issue at this point. But at this point in time, South America is going to own that nearby soybean market.

[Yeager] So is there anything that a producer should do right now, given there's a lot in the market, there's not a lot of activity or excitement in soybeans.

[Hueber] Sure. The, you know, hopefully, hopefully they've already taken advantage of the rallies we had post January 1st. But you know, right now, I'd say if you're sitting on extra beans, you either ought to have a put on there or be ready to pull the trigger. If this market starts tipping lower from here. So, it's and you know, here again, two upside. Even if we could talk about new crop a little bit, you know, we've nearly pushed $12 beans at the highs and back in back in March. We're a bit below there at this point in time. But even if there was an explosion to the upside, you know, $0.50 more, you know, we're not talking about dollars and dollars of rally ahead of us here.

[Yeager] Right. I was going to ask you about this $12 number. What's the is it a mental or a technical.

[Hueber] A combination of both. But I mean, certainly psychologically $12 is interesting. You know, when I look at the November's the November situation, you know, a year ago in January, we gapped below $12.50. And we've never revisited that. There was a weather scare or something or, you know, we had some other bullish factor that came into the soybean market. 1250 is probably going to cap it off. So, I mean, you're really not talking about, you know, even a 10% rally from where we stand. You know, that's more like a 5% rally from where we stand. So, it's, it's not like there's great upside potential here.

[Yeager] That sounds like focus on the planting, not worry about the marketing of beans right now.

[Hueber] Well, you know, here again, then, you know, don't just leave it out there. I think you have to be sold ahead on this. You know, if you think you need to have some weather protection, do it with calls. You know, it's why leave too much, too much risk out there to the downside.

[Yeager] Cotton started well, finished last week well, continued early this week. And now the last couple of days we've sold off. What's going on there?

[Hueber] You know again it's been a huge rally since the beginning of the year. You know granted dryness in the south of course, just like impacting wheat has been impacting cotton market. The exception there though is we have we are looking at probably a little higher acreage this year. So, I think at this point in time, you've probably squeezed all you can out of the weather concerned rally. So, it's we'd have to find something new to try to think prices can move higher than this.

[Yeager] Is this is there a squeeze going on in the live cattle market right now?

[Hueber] Oh, I don't know if he'd say squeeze per se. I mean, we really did take a pretty good wash out here over the last few weeks trying to build that back up here. Once again. I think this will be the true test. I mean, if we can if we can't sustain this rally beyond next week, then I think it's you know, we're probably looking at some pretty major tops on the cattle market. But I mean, we've been saying that for a year and a half. You know.

[Yeager] This is as close as we've had to signals, right?

[Hueber] Exactly, exactly.

[Yeager] So, then what does that mean?

[Hueber] Well, I think one we're probably have deferred enough demand or should say discouraged enough demand that is making impact. We know we're trying to do I shouldn't say we that the U.S. Is importing beef to, you know, uninhibited here at this point in time. So, you know, there's been a lot of effort to try to put a cap on food prices. And I think beef is the number one culprit that everybody's after at this point in time.

[Yeager] Have you been impressed or disappointed in boxed beef here lately?

[Hueber] Well, I good question, good question. Neither you know, I mean, I think it's just normal trade. Yeah.

[Yeager] Yeah. Which means we're likely going to no matter how much you import, we're going to probably be stuck at a certain price level, right.

[Hueber] For the time being. Right.

[Yeager] Feeder wise, after last week's cattle on feed report, there was this thought that, oh, here we go. We're opening up the door.

[Hueber] Sure.

[Yeager] We dropped, but we stabilized at the end of the week. Why is it about retention? Is it about exhaustion?

[Hueber] I would say it's also about, you know, an anemic corn trade, you know, to where it, you know, not as much fear about what prices are going to be on the input side of it. So, but, but I think, you know, that that with the cattle market itself kind of teetering on the edge of a major question, do we have a high-end place here? You know, I think that could evaporate the premiums in the feeder market pretty rapidly.

[Yeager] So, hog market, though, maybe the bottom is in, right? 

[Hueber] I mean, we've had a very solid push to the downside. Bounced away from those lows earlier this week. And then we finished a bit weaker today but didn't go to new lows. So, I think there's a better than 5050 odds that we have a low in here. And we'll see more of a seasonal climb up into the summer months again.

[Yeager] Is there a certain driver on this?

[Hueber] Oh you know other than normal summer demand, I wouldn't say a major a major driver at this point in time. Because there's no trade story. I mean, every once in a while we hear about this summit that could happen between the U.S. And China in May. Soybeans is the headline in that. Pork doesn't seem to be a part of that discussion.

[Yeager] No, no. And again, when you look at the pork exports have been reasonable this year. But, you know, China themselves, you know, granted, they can tell us a lot of things if they follow through or not. But I mean, China has really has a ten-year goal to really trim back on meat imports. And, you know, again, they've, well, trimmed back on a lot of imports period., correct? 

[Hueber] Correct. I mean, there again, you know, we all have a stated goal of expanding production year after year. You know, you're limited by geography certainly over there. But, you know, the technological advances we continue to see in production, particularly in crop production, you know, could be their ace in the hole there too. So.

[Yeager] Well, it's good to have you here as our ace in the hole. We always appreciate it. 

[Hueber] Always a pleasure to be here.

[Yeager] Certainly. Thank you much.

[Hueber] You bet. 

[Yeager] Thanks, Dan Hueber everyone on our market analysis segment, that's what you've been watching here on this program. In a moment, Dan and I will continue our discussion in that online only segment, we call it Market Plus. So, here's how you find it. You search Market Plus with Dan Hueber wherever that you get your podcasts. You can also go to our website of Markettomarket.org to listen. Thank you to those of you who've joined our Facebook club by liking or following our page, come see our posts of photos, links, and questions to keep you in the loop with this program. Join us at facebook.com slash Market to Market. Show next week. What a thinner winter snowpack means for producers out west. Thank you so much for watching. Have a great week.

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