Market Plus with Naomi Blohm

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Welcome to the table for the. Friday, March 13th, 2026 installment of Market Plus. And joining us again is Naomi Blohm. And just a reminder that we are recording on Thursday this week, due to production changes. So a lot could happen on Friday, but we'll go with what we have. So there were some things that we didn't get to, but first I want to go to social media because there's some good questions there. So Naomi, this first one is James in Minnesota and he's asking, “will the funds pull out of the livestock and stock market and go into gold and grain?”

[Naomi Blohm] Yeah. And I think the answer is yes. If crude oil trades above $125 a barrel, or if we start to see weather issues develop in Brazil on that second crop, corn there neutral pretty much right now in corn and wheat. So that means that if a story develops on the friendly side, they are going to be able to quickly buy corn by wheat and take that market dramatically higher if they want to. If the story develops. So that's what we're all going to be watching. And, and part of the way they can bring that money into the market would be taking profits on long positions from the stock market, taking profits on long position from cattle. And usually there's that inverse where if grain prices, you know, work higher, sometimes you see feeder cattle futures fall. So that's there's a lot that could really transpire over the next few weeks where producers just need to be ready for any of these scenarios to unfold. But definitely following the money and following the fund activity is critical for the next few weeks.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] So Keith in North Dakota is asking “with high priced fertilizer, could we lose some corn acres yet?”

[Naomi Blohm]Yeah, absolutely. And actually, I've started to hear some clients talk about that a little bit to where they really are concerned about the high input costs and, and some of them already, of course, in the fall and in December had started to say that they knew that they were going to plant, of course, their regular rotation. But this year lean a little heavier into the soybeans. But there could be still some additional last minute switching yet this spring that could unfold, especially with these input costs. Now. I mean, it was horrible before and now it's just getting worse for these farmers between fertilizer costs and and the fuel costs. So I'm very I'm very curious to to see what the March 31st Planting Intentions report shows. But beyond that, we could still see, of course, the acres switching in April when we actually get planting. So there's going to be a lot of potential market movement and surprises ahead.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] All right. Phil in Ontario is asking “grain analysts aren't military analysts. But clearly this war has influenced near new crop grain prices despite bearish fundamentals. So on the new crop side, when do we pull the sales trigger is what he's asking. Is it still mid-June considering seasonality.”

[Naomi Blohm] Yes. So that's a really important question. In a situation like this. So right now normally the Seasonals would say that grain prices were lower during the month of March. And then they start to work higher during April. The last time we had a global military conflict after Russia invaded Ukraine, we actually saw grain prices trade sideways to higher during the month of March because they invaded in February. And then during April, that grain market just screamed higher. And the high that year came at the very, very end of April for the corn market. And the soybean high came a little bit later. But the seasonals are potentially still in play here, where a lot of times your best seasonal window for corn and soybean pricing is between Mother's Day and Father's Day. So mid-May to mid-June. But the past couple years, our grain price high had been more like an April. So there's there's seasonals to watch. But again, like I said on the show, the bigger factor right now is crude oil. Crude oil gets through $125 a barrel. This is a game changer for the entire industry and for commodity trading.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Okay, $125. Sylvan in Quebec is asking “how can a commodity producer design a marketing plan with the volatility of situations like we have now?” That's the first part of his question. And then I'll read you the second part. I'll let you do one at a time.

[Naomi Blohm] Okay. That sounds good. Yeah. So well, you know, right now when you stop and look at where prices are like new crop corn, corn knocking on $5 for the November beans up near 1175 area with the potential to go towards $12 prices we did not think would even be fathomable just weeks ago. So in some regard you have to be thinking that in a way this is a gift because the grain fundamentals, as we've said, they do lean a little negative naturally on their own right now, with sufficient production in the world. But if this wakes up so so a plan could be, you know, you make some forward contracting right now because the value is there, but you would want to then be open to understanding where prices could go from a technical aspect, if this market works higher. If you look at weekly charts on corn and people are going to think, I'm crazy for saying this, but you look at a weekly chart on corn. If we go through $5, which means crude oil went through $125, the swing objective, higher on a weekly chart points to $6. If you look at November beans on that same weekly chart for November, bean futures, the swing objective higher. If the market can get through 12, it's a quick run to 13 and you could argue $14. But again, it's all tied to the crude oil. So if you're making cash sales at these values here because they are good value from what we thought we could have, be open to the idea of potential re ownership with call options. If the crude oil market goes tearing higher, but then also being aware of where the next technical resistance level could be and having those orders there working ahead of time. Because with war, with quick trading, and we saw it with the gold market, all of a sudden there was like this huge screaming one week week rally to the upside that fell back just as quickly. And only the people who had their orders in place, you know, those are going to be the winners in that situation. So it is, it is tricky to market in a situation like this where your, your entire fundamentals are shifted so quickly, and we're trying to get caught up on what the heck is actually happening out here.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] And no one seems to know. Right? 

[Naomi Blohm]Right, exactly. 

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] So again, crude oil, the leading factor at the moment for the grain markets. So the second part of his question is “input costs were already high enough. And now with the Middle East heating up again and the recent increase in commodity prices, will inputs go even higher than they are? Can you even get them right?”

[Naomi Blohm] It's it's just, it stinks, you know? And the thing is that they, they will have that potential to go higher. You know, if this, if the energy markets explode higher. And from a political standpoint, I wonder if the war truly does kind of keep lingering on throughout the rest of March. This is, you know, my personal view that it's not only a factor of making a point, it's making sure that the point is made and loose ends are tied up, but also to make a point to President XI that when the United States is serious about something, they're serious and higher energy prices affect China deeply right now because their economy has not been doing very well. So this is a multifactorial chess match that has so many ripple effects for so many countries. And if we end up having not only higher energy prices, higher input costs, ultimately higher food prices, it's just going to suffer for the global economies around the world. So my hope, obviously, everyone's hope that this gets wrapped up sooner than later, but it could linger on, I think, throughout the rest of March, potentially beyond. We'll see. But a lot of moving parts.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Yeah. And like you said, could take longer than anyone expects for some of those reasons. One thing we didn't get to in the show was we there was a WASDE this week that didn't really get much attention at all because of everything that was happening. But you also wrote that a report of increased year over year exports of Russian wheat. So how is the market responding?

[Naomi Blohm] Yeah, so what's interesting is that right now in the world, there's there's deemed enough wheat available that of course can quickly change if any of the 2 or 3 leading global countries have weather issues. So we're looking at European Union, China, India, Russia, the United States. Those are the top five. Russia is able to export more wheat. They've had a decent year of production and they are taking advantage of their partnerships throughout the world and and exporting more. So I think that's something that we kind of figured would be happening. But you see now our U.S. exports of wheat kind of come to a standstill where we're still exporting, but it's just not that hot and heavy pace that we were at before. And of course, war changes all of that as far as shipping lanes and production movement. But Russia is definitely flexing, and they're reminding the world that they're they're still open for business.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Milk was down. Why?

[Naomi Blohm] Yeah. So this week we had lower cash trade for the cheese markets for the butter markets. And that affected the class three milk futures. The milk market for class three has been trading between $16 and $18 for a good month, month and a half. The theme continues to be very, very sufficient. Milk production year over year, and that's been a trend that's been happening for a good six, seven months. So the milk is out there. Production is fantastic, but equally important, demand is great for all of our dairy products. Our exports are doing really well too. So in the short term, because the fundamentals are, I think, mostly balanced between large production but good demand. We're seeing a lot of just day to day volatility following the different cash markets for cheese, butter, whey and then the class three markets follow.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] Okay. I think we covered everything okay. Yeah. Naomi, thanks so much again for being with us.

[Naomi Blohm] Yep.

[Brooke Kohlsdorf] All right. Next week, a drugs expansion in the marketplace helps spur demand for animal protein and commodity market analysis with Mark gold. Thanks for joining us and have a great week.

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